Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

We are pleased to announce that Justice Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar of the Supreme Court of California will become the next president of the Carnegie Endowment. https://lnkd.in/ezGWRXCx

How does the United States make major foreign policy shifts—and how much could its foreign policy change in the next four years? A growing number of analysts argue that the era of U.S. hyperpower is over and that the country needs a strategic reorientation. But major changes in U.S. foreign policy are difficult to achieve and have occurred only rarely in history. Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program has examined key moments since World War II when the United States has adopted new strategies, and has identified the ingredients any future president would need to steer foreign policy in a new direction. To launch Carnegie’s report, Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim sit down with Beth Sanner, who served in the U.S. national security community for three decades. They will explain what factors promote major changes in foreign policy and to debate their implications for the next presidential administration. RSVP to join us in-person on Tuesday, July 23, at 11 a.m.: https://lnkd.in/evWXBMAj

🇮🇳 The #BJP's narrow 2024 win hinted at a return to coalition politics. But "the nature of the political order has fundamentally shifted in ways that will have a lasting impact on Indian democracy," writes Milan Vaishnav in his essay for the Journal of Democracy. 💭 How Has India Changed Under the BJP? 💭 India's political landscape has seen a significant shift under the BJP, moving from secularism to a civilizational-state ethos. This transition challenges conventional notions of democracy, framing India as a revived civilizational state with deep democratic roots predating Western models. Central to this shift is a narrative of historical victimization and cultural revival, promoting Hindutva as central to a unified Hindu identity. This redefines secularism, emphasizing state intervention in religious affairs while ostensibly safeguarding cultural diversity. India's foreign policy has aligned with domestic agendas, asserting global leadership through initiatives like the "International Day of Yoga" and advocacy for millet cultivation. Simultaneously, internal policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act reflect a move towards "One Nation" initiatives, reshaping federal dynamics with a more unitary state structure. #India #ForeignPolicy #Democracy Read the full article at the Journal of Democracy ➡️ https://lnkd.in/ema4VPVS

💭 Why is Armenia is on the search for new foreign policy partners? Thomas de Waal's latest paper explores the uncertain geopolitical environment in which Armenia finds itself. 🔷 Armenia's relationship with Russia is increasingly fraught, but it continues to depend heavily on Russia for energy and trade and remains its formal military ally. 🔷 Public support for a diversification of foreign policy is strong and opinion polls show there is almost no endorsement for a return to pre-2020 security dependence on Russia. 🔷 The West offers increased political and economic support, but mostly for the long term, and Armenia remains years away from alignment with Western institutions. 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 | Armenia is now searching for new set of global partners and seeking to loosen its close ties to Russia. De Waal argues that the West can encourage this diversification effort by supporting a peace process between #Armenia & #Azerbaijan. To learn more and read the full paper, visit: https://lnkd.in/eqK9jetw

For decades, Beijing has emphasized a modest approach to nuclear deterrence. 💭 But in recent years, China under Xi has shifted toward aggressive nuclear expansion and a bolder posture. Why? 💭 Tong Zhao's new report examines this question. China's nuclear buildup & effort to achieve “strategic counterbalance” cast doubt on its commitment to traditional nuclear stability with the U.S. As U.S.-China relations worsen, the risk of nuclear escalation rises. Understanding China's motivations and policy shifts is crucial. Experts debate whether China’s nuclear buildup is a response to advancements in U.S. military technology or a move toward aggression. Zhao's report examines China's nuclear perspectives and policymaking mechanisms and points to the role of important political factors. 🔷 Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy💠 1️⃣ China's nuclear expansion was driven by Xi's anticipation of rising U.S.-China tensions and a perceived existential threat. As relations declined, China accelerated nuclear buildup to shape U.S. global power perceptions. Insecurity and ambition shape China’s strategic thinking. 2️⃣ Under Xi, China's nuclear strategy and decision-making has become more centralized and less reliant on experts. Xi's removal of military constraints has also accelerated nuclear development and shielded the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from external oversight. Amid ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, this implicates the U.S. 3️⃣ The U.S. and China have mismatched goals when it comes to nuclear weapons. The U.S. has traditionally pursued nuclear stability with the aim of preventing military threats. On the other hand, as Beijing increasingly views Western anti-China sentiment as an existential threat, China wants nuclear weapons to help counter political threats in addition to military ones. 4️⃣ China's increasing domestic authoritarianism and regime insecurity amplify threat perception in at least two ways: ❌ Attributing international problems solely to external factors ❌ Fostering information & perception gaps These gaps lead to a dilemma: when the U.S. defends what it "perceives as basic facts, universal values, and essential principles," China sees Washington threatening regime security by "spreading disinformation, conducting public opinion warfare, and promoting color revolution." 5️⃣ The "precarious stability offered by nuclear deterrence" has reduced the urgency for the U.S. and China to address their underlying political issues. Zhao offers recommendations on how to improve bilateral political stability & reduce nuclear risks. For more, read the full report here 👇 https://lnkd.in/e4i_QJAV

The South Caucasus's geography—the borders the region shares with Russia— has long overshadowed its politics. But in the face of the Russia-Ukraine war, countries in the region are developing alternative foreign policy priorities and recalibrating relations with the West. As Armenia moves closer to the United States and Europe, the government in Georgia is lurching towards Moscow – despite opposition from its society. Meanwhile, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in talks for a historic chance for a peace treaty which could serve as the bedrock of a new regional order. What is the significance of the South Caucasus for the West? What can the U.S. do to encourage regional cooperation and reconciliation? Daniel Baer, Marie Yovanovitch, former Ambassador to Armenia and Ukraine and senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, and Ambassador Yuri Kim, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasian Affairs, convene for a special in-person conversation to analyze what role the U.S. can play for the new order in the South Caucasus. This event is open to in-person attendance only - register to attend at the link below. Join us on July 24 @ 2 PM: https://lnkd.in/eyum33Ec

🌍 In the aftermath of the European Parliament elections, Europe stands at a crossroads. The region is grappling with the dual challenges of EU integration and the rise of the far right, and this presents a dilemma: "in the immediate short term, what is good for the EU integration project might not be good for democracy, and vice versa." 📝 Senior Fellow Richard Youngs explores this conundrum in his article, "Europe’s Democracy Catch-22: Is There a Way Out?" His analysis suggests that traditional strategies of engaging or isolating the far right are falling short. 💡Youngs proposes a potential solution: a European democracy pact. This approach aims to uphold core democratic values independently of partisan policy debates. By setting clear democratic standards, including tolerance and rights protections, the pact seeks to anchor political discourse in pluralism and civic engagement. ⭐ Amidst calls to either confront or collaborate with the far right, Youngs advocates for a nuanced path forward. He argues that while safeguarding EU integrity is crucial, it must not come at the expense of democratic principles. Instead, fostering inclusive democratic practices across party lines could mitigate the erosion of liberal norms. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/e4zPPz8h #EU #Europe #democracy

As Russia, China, and the United States build new nuclear weapons systems, the prospects for negotiating formal arms control treaties appear dim. The Biden administration continues to explore and support new pathways to manage nuclear risks, but Moscow and Beijing have thus far refused offers to substantively engage. Leaders of other countries also appear largely unfamiliar with the subject and exert little effective pressure on the nuclear-armed states to cease nuclear arms racing. George Perkovich, Carnegie’s Japan chair for a world without nuclear weapons, welcomes Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability Mallory Stewart for an in-person discussion of the state of nuclear arms control today, as well as its future. RSVP to join us on July 25 at 2 PM: https://lnkd.in/eTqSKpd4

Are we misunderstanding democratic backsliding? Senior Fellow Thomas Carothers and Junior Fellow Brendan Hartnett challenge the common view that backsliding can be explained by the failure to provide socioeconomic goods for the citizens of democratic countries. Their analysis in the Journal of Democracy uses 12 case studies and finds that the data reveals a more complex reality: “Backsliding is less a result of democracies failing to deliver than of democracies failing to constrain the predatory political ambitions and methods of certain elected leaders.” Read more below and find the full essay here: https://lnkd.in/eF6TguaZ

Carnegie recently hosted the inaugural Carnegie Africa Forum, a one-day conference that brought together leading policy experts, thought leaders, and diplomats to spotlight their perspectives on a range of critical issues facing the continent. Panel discussions spanned from conversations on the human and environmental impacts of the race to net-zero on Africa, to a special convening of four former U.S. assistant secretaries of state for African Affairs, who offered insights into the future of U.S.-Africa relations drawing upon their experience as diplomats. This conference was also a unique opportunity for the Carnegie Africa Program, led by Zainab Usman, Ph.D., to showcase its dynamic network of scholars and collection of policy analysis that the program has developed since its founding in 2021, highlighting Africa’s role in the era of climate change, evolving great power competition, and the digital revolution. © Paul Morigi for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace