All-In Podcast

Chamath: CA's wildfire failure is "a level of incompetence bordering on criminal negligence" Chamath on E210: "Remember that crazy apocalyptic video of that exact same part of Southern California burning to the ground?" "That was six years ago. This is not like it was a distant memory from 100 years ago." "This idea that we were just lollygagging around and got caught off guard by 100mph winds to me is completely not an acceptable answer." "There's this California Environmental Quality Act and a whole bunch of these other regulatory policies that limited the ability of local governments and fire management to clear dead trees and vegetation." "Multiple bills: AB 2330, AB 1951, AB 2639, that would have exempted these wildfire prevention projects from CEQA and other permitting issues, all rejected by the Democrat controlled legislator, or worse, vetoed by Governor Newsom." "I think that's a really big deal." "I'm just a little bit at a loss to explain these two bodies of data: everybody can see that these events are happening, (but) all the bills that are meant to prevent this are blocked or vetoed." "This is the ultimate expression of negligence and incompetence." "How much money did the government of California spend, poorly, as it turns out, on homelessness? It was about ~$21B." "And illegal immigrants? I don't know what the final number is there, but I suspect in the tens of billions." "If you reappropriated those dollars to protective mechanisms in these areas, what would the outcome have been?" "It's hard for me to believe it would have been as bad as it is right now." #wildfire #lafire #losangeles #fire #government #politics #trump #newsom #california #allin #podcast #clips #learn #business

Chamath Explains Why Trump Wants Greenland -- the arctic ice shelf is melting -- because of this, greenland could be the key to controlling a new shipping lane of panama canal-level importance Chamath on E210: "It really comes down to one very basic idea here: because of climate change and other things, the Arctic ice shelf is melting." "And the more and more it melts, it opens up a shipping lane in the Northern Passage for a lot of critical goods." " And so if you had some sort of strategic agreement with Canada🇨🇦 and Greenland🇬🇱, you effectively have this monopoly control over something that could become as important as the Panama Canal." " And so I think if you look across the world, the control of maritime shipping lanes becomes this really critical strategic military and economic asset." " It's really smart that he's trying to get this done for the United States of America. 🇺🇸" " Because meanwhile, what you have is China🇨🇳 militarizing very aggressively, and Russia🇷🇺 militarizing very aggressively." "And what you don't want to have happen is those two countries take control of that Northern Passage as the ice sheet melts." #reels #trump #allin #allinpodcast #greenland #china #russia #canada #trudeau #donaldtrump #panama #panamacanal #economy #military #defense

Friedberg: California Created an Insurance Crisis by Artificially Inflating Home Prices David Friedberg broke it down on episode 210: -- the frequency of loss is INCREASING for homes in climate-sensitive zones (areas with wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.) -- this includes parts of los angeles susceptible to wildfires -- in a free market, the cost of insurance would rise with the increased risk of loss -- however, california makes it nearly impossible for home insurance providers to increase rates -- this artificially inflates home prices, due to the massively subsidized insurance costs " They're driving real estate value up because they're not allowing the cost of insurance of that real estate to naturally float." " And so by driving real estate values up, the economy looks good, they make property taxes, income comes in." -- but, major insurance providers like state farm pulled out of certain at-risk areas in the state -- for example, state farm canceled ~1600 policies in pacific palisades last summer -- californians living in at-risk areas are now relying on the state's insurance program (the "fair plan") in record numbers -- according to friedberg, the fair plan has ~$220M of capital with ~$5B of reinsurance -- after this string of wildfires, the program has ~$6B of exposure in the pacific palisades alone, and could have $24B+ in total losses -- so, california's state insurance plan is effectively bankrupt, and will need a bailout " At the end of the day, the bill is going to come due." "And at some point, taxpayers are going to look at the fact that they're paying some percentage of their income to support someone else's home value, and they're going to say 'Enough is enough.'" #reels #insurance #california #wildfire #losangeles #la #allinpodcast #allin #tech #business #leadership #learn #smart

J-Cal: OpenAI Has Peaked Jason's take: "I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being underappreciated." 1) Major AI competition from the best in the world -- xAI: just getting started, and Elon already has a major breakthrough with colossus -- Google: after early hiccups, the team has gotten focused and started kicking ass -- Microsoft: holds all the cards, CEO Satya Nadella was " almost like laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code, and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all." -- Meta: Zuck is hyper-focused on open-source, creating downward pressure on pricing 2) Devs prefer open-source -- "The developers I know all want to do open-source. They don't want to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman." 3) $157B valuation is too high, given legal risks -- " There's a non-zero chance they could lose these court cases of transferring $157B in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit." -- " I think that whole thing could blow up in Sam Altman's lap." #openai #ai #chatgpt #startups #tech #business #clips #2025 #learn #podcast #allin #allinpodcast #google #x #meta #smart

Chamath: Two Reasons Stablecoin Usage Will Surge in 2025 1) Last year, stablecoin usage became uncoupled from crypto volatility for the first time (h/t a16z crypto) 2) In the first half of 2024, stablecoins (~$8.5T) had more than 2x the transaction volume of Visa (~$3.5T) Chamath explains why:  "(Stablecoins) started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses." So, what's next? " I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return." "I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard." "I think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stablecoin rails." "And I think stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of '25." "I think it's just going to be an enormous market." #stablecoins #crypto #tech #bitcoin #payments #startups #fintech #business #learn #clips #podcast #allinpodcast #allin #finance #money

Chamath: Progressivism Will Lose Big in 2025 In our predictions show, Chamath laid out four examples of how progressivism can take major losses in the West: 🇨🇦 Canada: "Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Poilievre." **Trudeau resigned 3 days later 🇩🇪 Germany: "AfD looks like they will win." 🇫🇷 France: "If there's a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win." 🇬🇧 UK: "... you see this unfolding child rape scandal, if all of that comes to pass, I think you're going to see the Labour government fall." " So, what do all of these countries look like by the end of '25?" "It's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics." "And I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world." " I think the biggest political loser for 2025 stands to be progressivism." #2025 #gop #democrat #progressive #conservative #germany #france #uk #britain #canada #trudeau #clips #podcast #tech #business #politics #allinpodcast #allin #chamath #prediction

The NBA is in trouble, but Big Tech might save it. Chamath on why he predicted last year that valuations of pro sports teams would peak in 2024-2025: " It was pretty clear to me at the time. And the NBA was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports." Chamath's take on what's wrong with the NBA: -- offensive play has devolved into threes and dunks -- the money is obscene, which leads to an increase in player movement, which kills classic rivalries -- this combination leads to a much less interesting product, hurting viewership Chamath on why we could see a valuation decline: " I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done." "And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV. So like that pool shrinks. If you have less viewership, so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them, and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again. Then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down." -- And even though PE firms are now getting into sports team ownership, those folks are MORE price sensitive than individual buyers. -- But, the NBA (and other leagues) might be saved by Big Tech's foray into streaming. Gavin Baker explains: " The one kind of counterpoint I would say on the TV rights is Google bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely happy with it. "Amazon and Netflix also both bought NFL games and are really happy with them." "So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and for sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline." "But just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports rights that they bought, they're going to buy them all." Listen, watch and subscribe to the All-In Podcast: www.allin.com #sports #nba #valuations #prosports #basketball #lebron #curry #allin #allinpodcast #hoops #athlete #tech #bigtech #streaming #netflix #amazon #apple #disney #clips #learn #tv #livesports

2025: The Year of the Robot During our 2025 predictions show, David Friedberg predicted that robots and robotics companies will be the biggest business winners this year. "I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, 'Oh my God, I can't believe this is here.'" Friedberg explains discovering and purchasing the Go2 robot from Unitree Robotics: "So their Go2 robot is $1600, has an API, you can run a payload on it, it's got LiDAR on it, it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it." "This is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year, where there were machine guns mounted to the back, and it was basically a new kind of field soldier. It's an autonomous field soldier." "But really you can use it in scientific applications. We're looking at using them on our test farms, where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us." "And it's such a low cost at like less than $3000, you can do some incredible things with it." "You know, it kind of takes a long time for things to work. And then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined." Listen, watch and subscribe to the All-In Podcast: www.allin.com #robot #technology #robots #robotics #tesla #optimus #tech #allin #podcast #clips #learn #2025 #business #investing #finance #smart #tips #allinpodcast

DC Elites Are Underestimating Elon and DOGE, and This Week Proved It Aaron Levie explains: "There's been this underlying notion of like, Elon et al. don't understand the government enough to be able to change it." "And it might actually be the case that the government doesn't understand Elon, in the sense of he will just see this thing through." "The tools at his disposal, and DOGE's disposal, are sort of completely unprecedented in terms of the ability to put anybody in Congress on notice if they are promoting things that are not making the country better." "They can just create enough visibility and spotlight on the problem that it causes a level of discomfort in supporting moving forward with whatever that thing is." "I think we're seeing some early indication of what DOGE will be able to do." Listen, watch and subscribe to the All-In Podcast: www.allin.com #politics #elon #elonmusk #vivek #doge #dc #trump #2024election #podcast #allin #business #technology #startups #clips #learn #smart

Trump's New Administration Has a Pattern: Business Experience Over Career Bureaucrats On E207, the besties discussed the advantages of President Trump filling his administration with sharp business minds like JD Vance, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Howard W. Lutnick, Scott Bessent, Linda McMahon, Doug Burgum, David O. Sacks, and many others. Chamath breaks it down: "I think this is the first time that I can remember where such an enormous number of business people have been motivated to come and work inside of the administration." " I think that the Democrats would never have assembled a group of people like this, even though the Democratic Party has a version of this chart that they could have made." " The problem is that they believe it's deeply unfashionable to get strong, competent business people to take a pause in their business career and come work in government. And you almost look down on people that are successful." " Whereas the Republican alternative here, if it creates a movement, so to speak, so that subsequent presidents tap folks on the shoulder, I think we'll be much better off." " And the reason is pretty simple." "I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world." " And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes." " So I hope this becomes a standard which is, ask these very talented, clearly demonstrated, successful people with judgment, to hit the pause for a year, or three, or five, whatever it is, step into government, help the country, and then go back." #trump #podcast #clips #allin #allinpodcast #gop #republican #democrat #politics #conservative #liberal #elonmusk #jdvance #startups #tech #business