What tools and techniques can you use to forecast trends in the external environment?

At the very outset, PESTEL is a qualitative analyses. One must be able to align the indicators for each of the factors to draw meaningful alignment between the factor and its impact. For instance, legislative changes alone don't impact operations. There can be superseding international treaties, court judgements, and implementation guidelines that can impact the way the legislative change will affect the ultimate outcome.

PESTEL is a strategic analysis tool focusing on Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors to understand their impact on an organization. It aids in identifying current and future trends that could influence operations, policies, and strategies, helping organizations navigate changes in legislation, consumer preferences, technological innovation, environmental shifts, and competitive landscapes. This analysis is key to spotting opportunities and challenges for strategic planning.

Utilising PESTEL analysis, I continually scan the horizon to gauge how external factors may impact my organisation. However, the true value lies in how we utilise this information. It is important to presenting findings alongside reflective questions that foster strategic thinking. For example: What do you think will be the 3 most important issues for our organisation over the next 3-5 years, and why? What are the implications for our clients/users, our services and our external voice?

Scenario planning is most effective when one is able to synergize the quantitative facts with qualitative inputs. Scenarios are not merely a projection with an error-band. Scenarios can also be influenced by culture shifts. For instance, if the trade between India and Korea is growing at a BAU scenario of 5% p.a., a series of Blackpink concerts in India significantly increase the rate of growth to 40% in some segments, a scenario induced not by quantitative trends but by strengthening cultural exchange.

Scenario planning enables organizations to anticipate and adapt to various potential futures. It involves developing and assessing scenarios based on differing assumptions and outcomes to evaluate strategies, uncover risks, and spot opportunities. This proactive approach allows for the crafting of contingency plans tailored to scenarios such as changes in demand, funding, regulation, or collaboration, ensuring preparedness and resilience in the face of uncertainty.

One word of caution around trend analysis - check, double check, and triple check the data and its collection process. No matter how sophisticated the model, if the underlying data is filled with inconsistencies, trend analysis will give absolutely misleading results. It is imperative to create small "check-models" to see if the trend analysis matched the past realities before projecting them into the future.

Trend analysis is crucial for forecasting future directions based on past and present data patterns. It helps organizations anticipate changes by examining key variables and indicators relevant to their operations. Through this analysis, you can project future trends and assess their potential impact on your organization's performance, goals, and strategic direction. Whether analyzing demographic shifts, market dynamics, cost trends, or revenue patterns, trend analysis provides insights to inform decision-making and strategic planning.

The good ol’ SWOT analysis! Make sure it is tailored to the specific goals and context of the situation, for larger brands AND personal brands. Don’t forget your people for thought leadership and in crisis. It seems like a simple tool, but it is far from it. My final thought— revisit it. 6 months. 12 months. Etc.

SWOT analysis is a strategic tool to evaluate an organization's internal strengths and weaknesses, along with external opportunities and threats. This framework aids in identifying what an organization excels at, areas needing enhancement, and external factors affecting its performance and strategic options. Through SWOT, you can examine capabilities, resources, and organizational culture against external trends and market demands, enabling informed decision-making and strategic planning.

Probably the most underrated and subconsciously used method in public affairs and consulting. A well design Delphi can be cheap, quick, and lead to comprehensive answers. The only thing to control in a Delphi is orientation-bias. For example, economic alignment of experts influence their perspective about outcomes, especially if the policy or the decision is in contradiction to their alignment. A good design, that controls for these biases, with an inclusive expert-base will help solve for this.