The 2025 Oscars BuzzMeter: Predicting the nominations

Here it is, Round 2 of the BuzzMeter, in which your panel presents prophetic picks for who and what will nab nominations for the 2025 Oscars. Unlike Round 1, panelists have seen just about everything now, and are painfully putting their personal feelings aside to make best guess predictions. After the nominations come out on Jan. 17, they’ll be back for Round 3, in which they’ll make their Oscar winner picks.

An interesting shared quality of most of the categories this season is a markedly low number of contenders. Whereas, in the Round 2s of past years, there were typically around 10-12 contenders considered strong possibilities for the five nominations in each category (with 15 to 20 for the best picture race), those numbers are all down this year. Does that mean it was not a great year for awards-caliber cinema, or just that the handful of anointed contenders are clearly ahead of the pack? You be the judge.

Think you can do better? Have a look at all their nom predictions in 10 Oscar categories below!

Our Oscars 2025 BuzzMeter panelists: Dave Karger, Amy Nicholson, Anne Thompson and Glenn Whipp.

(Kagan McLeod / For The Times)

“Anora” (starring Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison) is on top of the BuzzMeter’s first-round best picture survey.

(Neon)

Best Picture

1. “Anora”

2. “The Brutalist”

3. (tie) “Wicked”

3. (tie) “Conclave”

5. “Dune: Part Two”

6. “Emilia Pérez”

7. “A Complete Unknown”

8. (tie) “A Real Pain”

8. (tie) “Nickel Boys”

10. “Sing Sing”

11. “Blitz”

12. (tie) “The Substance”

12. (tie) “September 5”

In Round 2, “Anora” retains the top spot among best-picture candidates, with the cultural phenomenon “Wicked” flying into serious contention. Already the highest-grossing Broadway musical adaptation ever (passing “Mamma Mia,” “Les Misérables” and “Grease,” among others), should it land a nom, it would be one of only two Broadway musical adaptations to do so since 2012 (Steven Spielberg’s remake of “West Side Story” being the other) and it would bid to be the first to win since “Chicago” in 2002. (Oscar and musical-theater nerds, can you name the only other Broadway musical adaptation to get a best picture nom in that stretch?)

Panelist Dave Karger doesn’t see a clear favorite among the leaders (“We still have no clear frontrunner, which is quite exciting,” he says). For what it’s worth, “Anora” has been racking up the honors elsewhere, including noms from the CCAs, Golden Globes and Spirits, and wins from Cannes, the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and many others. “The Brutalist,” the story of a talented immigrant escaping fascism only to land in the clutches of the ugliest of Americans, may resonate with voters. Meanwhile, Amy Nicholson says “Conclave” is what passes for a popcorn flick among voters, calling it: “The movie voters want to see, and it’ll be interesting to see if Ralph Fiennes’ highbrow crowd-pleaser pulls ahead simply because it pairs better with a bucket of popcorn.”

But beware, “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez,” as some panelists are sniffing out something like a backlash for these early favorites: “As predicted, the crowd-pleasing festival hits may have peaked too soon,” says Anne Thompson.

Glenn Whipp, with an eye to history, says “Wicked” is a real contender, especially if it lands a screenplay nod: “If it secures a nomination there and scores all the crafts nods expected, you can’t discount its chances.”

Among those not on the list: Indie darling “Ghostlight,” “Challengers,” “September 5,” “A Different Man,” “Babygirl” and international feature contenders “I’m Still Here,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Kneecap,” and the well-loved international non-contender (because it was not submitted by its home country) “All We Imagine as Light.”

Meanwhile, Thompson sees a dark (very, very dark) horse oozing its way into contention: “Sneaking onto the list is Coralie Fargeat’s Cannes darling ‘The Substance,’ a feminist body-horror flick starring Demi Moore that seems to be gaining respect.”

Nerd alert: The other Broadway musical adaptation to get a nomination between “Chicago” and now is “Les Misérables” — the 2012 Hugh Jackman starrer, not the 2019 French thriller.

Director and projector: “Anora” auteur Sean Baker.

(Carlin Stiehl / For The Times)

Best Director

1. Sean Baker — “Anora”

2. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”

3. (tie) Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”

3. (tie) Edward Berger — “Conclave”

5. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”

6. (tie) James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”

6. (tie) RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys”

Only seven helmers receive support for the five slots, with the directors of the top two best picture candidates sitting atop this category, as one might expect. Apart from Denis Villeneuve and James Mangold, the names in contention aren’t exactly common to most American households (two aren’t even American, Canadian or British), not having had any commercial successes domestically. There’s no Spielberg, Scorsese or Cameron in this field, though Mangold made one of the most highly respected comic-book movies ever in “Logan” and his films have received major nominations (“Ford v Ferrari”) and wins (“Walk the Line”). Villeneuve, meanwhile, is that rare auteur whose massively successful genre work (the “Dune” franchise; “Blade Runner 2049”; “Arrival”) is beloved by audiences and critics alike.

Still, says Amy Nicholson, “Most at-home Oscar viewers couldn’t pick Sean Baker out of a lineup, but he’s perennially been one of the year’s best helmers and this might be his time.” Glenn Whipp says Baker “has long been celebrated in indie circles for his movies that look at life on the margins of America,” and now is finally in line for his first nomination.

Dave Karger wonders if the maker of a wildly popular entertainment can win — or even be nominated: “The biggest question for me in this race is whether ‘Wicked’s’ visionary Jon M. Chu can break through with the often-esoteric directors branch.” Anne Thompson decries what she expects to be another boys’ club this year, but says, “if any women could sneak in, it would be Globe nominees Coralie Fargeat (‘The Substance’) or critics’ darling Payal Kapadia (‘All We Imagine as Light’).”

Among the notables not expected to be nominated: Luca Guadagnino, who made two widely discussed films this year (“Challengers” and “Queer”); Steve McQueen (“Blitz”); Mohammad Rasoulof (the Iranian dissident who won the LAFCA prize for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” a top international contender this year); and Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”).

The BuzzMeter panel has Mikey Madison of “Anora” on top of the first-round lead-actress rankings. (Also pictured: Mark Eydelshteyn.)

(Neon)

1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”

2. Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”

3. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”

4. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”

6. (tie) Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”

6. (tie) Demi Moore — “The Substance”

Five slots, seven contenders. Mikey Madison just won at LAFCA. So did Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Cynthia Erivo is a previous multiple nominee, one of the best singers in the world, and the headliner (arguably co-headliner) of the hottest movie going right now. Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman are previous winners. Demi Moore has never been nominated in her long career, and is in perhaps just insane enough of a film — and performance — to force voters to take notice. And honoring Karla Sofía Gascón, who shared the actress prize at Cannes with her “Emilia Pérez” costars Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz, would be historic for the academy: She would be the first trans performer to receive a lead actress nomination.

Dave Karger says the category always includes “heartbreaking omissions,” so “that means that deserving performances from the likes of Demi Moore and Marianne Jean-Baptiste might not make the cut.” Glenn Whipp allows that the body-horror genre of “The Substance” (starring Moore) might scare off voters, but says “there’s a real passion for the movie and her turn as a faded star.” Anne Thompson thinks “the actors will find it hard to resist one-time nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste (‘Secrets & Lies’) who reunites with Mike Leigh to create an unforgettable angry woman in ‘Hard Truths.’ ”

As to frontrunner Madison, though she seems to have come from nowhere with her bolt-from-the-blue performance in “Anora,” she has actually been around for years, with a starring role in FX’s “Better Things” and appearances in “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” and the 2022 “Scream,” among others. Still, voters’ unfamiliarity with her and writer-director Sean Baker’s penchant for casting people essentially as themselves has the actress’ team “hellbent on proving that she’s not actually a rowdy, party-hearty exotic dancer,” says Amy Nicholson. “That strategy is helping.”

Some of the big names with heralded work not making the cut in Round 1 include Fernanda Torres of international frontrunner “I’m Still Here,” Florence Pugh, Saoirse Ronan, Zendaya and previous winners Olivia Colman, Regina King, Emma Stone, Tilda Swinton and Kate Winslet.

Timothée Chalamet surges to the top of the Oscar predictions for “A Complete Unknown.”

(Searchlight Pictures)

Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”

Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”

Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”

Daniel Craig — “Queer”

Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man”

Timothée Chalamet may not be a complete unknown, but he has come out of nowhere to take the top lead-actor spot as one of the panel’s only consensus picks after barely appearing in the Round 1 lists, and then only by faith (his Bob Dylan biopic hadn’t screened at that time). Now that the critics have seen his embodiment of the Minneapolis Minstrel, they don’t think twice, it’s all right: He’s way out in front in Round 2, in what Dave Karger calls “perhaps the easiest acting race to predict.”

“Honestly, Timothée Chalamet should be in this race for his chilling naif-to-zealot arc in ‘Dune: Part Two,’ ” says Amy Nicholson. Anne Thompson sees him as the main competition for Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes, whom she says “is overdue. He earned two Oscar nominations early in his career for ‘Schindler’s List’ and ‘The English Patient,’ and was robbed for his role as Gustave in ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ ” Whereas Glenn Whipp cites the “Sing Sing” director’s great faith in star Colman Domingo as evidence of the strength of his performance: “One of these years — maybe this one — he’s going to win an Oscar.”

Surprisingly, only six actors received votes in Round 2. Notables not noted here: Jesse Eisenberg in “A Real Pain,” Hugh Grant at his diabolical best in the low-key indie horror “Heretic,” Ethan Herisse in the multiple contender “Nickel Boys,” Nicholas Hoult for “Juror No. 2,” Keith Kupferer in the lovely indie “Ghostlight,” reigning champ Cillian Murphy for the downbeat “Small Things Like These” and Sebastian Stan for either “A Different Man” or “The Apprentice.”

Although she could justifiably be called the lead of “Emilia Perez,” Zoe Saldana sits as the first pick for the supporting actress Oscar.

(Why Not Productions)

Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
Ariana Grande — “Wicked”

Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”

Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave”

Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”

Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz”

Two who could be considered leads top the BuzzMeter’s Round 2 predictions for supporting actress Oscar nominations. Zoe Saldaña of “Emilia Pérez” is one of the panel’s only consensus No. 1 picks. In second, following her “Saturday Night Live” revelation as a deadshot comic performer, pop superstar Ariana Grande helps generate the considerable girl power of the cultural phenomenon “Wicked.”

“Both could justifiably be placed in lead actress as they essentially co-headline their films,” says Glenn Whipp: “They’re the overwhelming favorites to win this year.” Though “Emilia Pérez” has divided critics since its Cannes triumph, Amy Nicholson, who describes herself as “no fan” of the film, says, “I left the theater gushing, ‘I didn’t know Zoe Saldaña could do that!’ ”

Felicity Jones vaults into contention as perhaps the strongest character in “The Brutalist,” while Isabella Rossellini and Danielle Deadwyler are considered good bets to score their first noms (along with Saldaña and Grande).

Saying only the top three are assured (Saldaña, Grande and Rossellini), among contenders for the other two slots, Dave Karger says, “Selena Gomez and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor can’t be counted out.” Meanwhile, Anne Thompson says, “Saoirse Ronan could grab some UK support as a mother trying to find her lost son in ‘Blitz’; she’s also so fine [as the lead] in ‘The Outrun.’ ”

Among the many worthy performances not making the nom-predictions round: Lashana Lynch (“Bob Marley: One Love”); Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”); Joan Chen (“Didi”); the three stars of “His Three Daughters” (Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, Elizabeth Olsen); Leonie Benesch (“September 5”); Katherine Kupferer and Dolly De Leon (“Ghostlight”); Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”); Margaret Qualley (“The Substance” or “Kinds of Kindness”) and Gomez of “Emilia Pérez,” who shares the Cannes actress prize with costars Saldaña, Gascón and Paz (and imagine the ratings bonanza of a field including Grande and Gomez).

Kieran Culkin, left, and Jesse Eisenberg co-star in “A Real Pain.” Culkin is the panel’s pick to lead the supporting actor category in Round 1.

(Sundance Institute)

Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”

Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown”

Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”

Yura Borisov — “Anora”

Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing”

John Lithgow — “Conclave”

Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) dominates after tying for the lead in Round 1. He’s one of the panel’s only consensus No. 1 picks in Round 2, in which the BuzzMeter predicts the Oscar nominations. Dave Karger calls him “the only total lock” in the field and Anne Thompson says, “This should be won handily by Kieran Culkin.” Glenn Whipp says, “Culkin finds new ways to tap into the melancholy underneath the appealing (and sometimes annoying) exterior.”

Praising both Culkin and lead actor/writer/director Jesse Eisenberg (who spends much of the movie jealously watching his cousin, played by Culkin, soak up everyone’s attention), Amy Nicholson says, “It’s ironic — if apropos — that only Culkin is getting awards buzz … as the charismatic charmer who continually fails upwards, much to his straitlaced cousin’s bafflement.”

Other contenders include Guy Pearce of “The Brutalist,” banjo-pickin’ Edward Norton in “A Complete Unknown,” emperor-manipulatin’ Denzel Washington in “Gladiator II” and LAFCA-winnin’ Yura Borisov in “Anora.”

Among those not on the nomination-prediction list are the boys from “Challengers” (Mike Faist, Josh O’Connor); the cast of “The Piano Lesson” (including Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher and Corey Hawkins); previous winners Sean Penn (“Daddio”) and Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”); Stanley Tucci of “Conclave”; Brian Tyree Henry of “The Fire Inside” and “Nickel Boys” standout Brandon Wilson.

“A Real Pain” slips past “Anora” as the favorite to take the original screenplay prize.

(Searchlight Pictures)

1. “A Real Pain”
2. (tie) “Anora”

2. (tie) “The Brutalist”

4. “His Three Daughters”

5. (tie) “The Substance”

5. (tie) “The Apprentice”

7. “Thelma”

8. “All We Imagine as Light”

9. “September 5”

After Sean Baker’s hilarious and touching script for “Anora” was way out in front in Round 1, Round 2 sees Jesse Eisenberg’s sentimental journey with very different cousins in “A Real Pain” jump into the top spot. Amy Nicholson says Eisenberg “knows how to write for actors — both in big moments and subtle ones — and every line of dialogue is exactly right.”

“Anora” drops into a tie for second with Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s “The Brutalist,” an epic period biography of a fictional person that both reflects the American postwar immigrant experience and serves as a twisted near-fable of class warfare at its most, um, brutal.

Speaking of fables, the next three in the list have heightened storytelling aspects — though Azazel Jacobs’ “His Three Daughters” plays as straight as a string until “that big swing he takes in the movie’s final 15 minutes,” says Glenn Whipp. Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” is a highly metaphorical, wickedly feminist body-horror/comedy that is transforming into an awards contender and “The Apprentice” gives a distinctly less-than-fabulous account of the real story behind the fable of a certain current figure’s formative days.

Anne Thompson adds, “If journalism feat ‘September 5’ doesn’t impress, Payal Kapadia could sneak in here for ‘All We Imagine as Light.’ Coralie Fargeat’s meaty ‘The Substance’ could grab some love from the writers.” While Dave Karger says somewhat ruefully that the others on the list “could make the cut over Coralie Fargeat’s more daring screenplay for ‘The Substance.’ ”

Ralph Fiennes stars in “Conclave,” which leads the adapted screenplay picks.

(Uncredited / Associated Press)

“Conclave”
“Nickel Boys”

“Emilia Pérez”

“Dune: Part Two”

“Sing Sing”

“Wicked”

“Small Things Like These”

“Here”

Another sign that “Emilia Pérez” may be losing steam: Its daring, unique adapted script, in second place by one vote in Round 1, drops to third in Round 2. Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’ “Conclave” earns the white smoke, while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel “The Nickel Boys” (for Ross’ film) is in second.

Glenn Whipp writes, “RaMell Ross does a masterful job, immersing viewers into the lives and perspectives of the characters with an impressionism that defies convention.”

Writer-director Jacques Audiard’s “Pérez” screenplay is adapted from his own adaptation of a part of Boris Razon’s novel, “Écoute.” Audiard originally wrote a libretto for an opera to be based on the novel, but later converted it to a big-screen musical with songs that helped shape the screenplay by French songwriters Clément Ducol and Camille.

Beyond those three, “ ‘Wicked’ could sneak into this category, for the length of time it took to adapt a book not only into a smash Broadway musical, but a blockbuster movie,” says Anne Thompson, and “Overall support for ‘Wicked’ could catapult it over ‘Dune: Part 2,’ ” hints Dave Karger.

But Amy Nicholson argues Denis Villeneuve’s adaptation of Frank Herbert’s sci-fi classic was in at least one very important way even more effective than the source material: “Herbert was forced to write a sequel to insist that [protagonist] Paul Atreides is no hero. Villeneuve centers the female characters who say it all in their disappointment.” Fans of the books who were befuddled by David Lynch’s total rejection of that narrative in his 1984 film will likely agree.

Other possibilities include “A Complete Unknown,” “I’m Still Here,” “Inside Out 2,” “Queer,” and if the voters feel like honoring the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, “Deadpool and Wolverine.”

Zoe Saldaña, left, and Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez,” the Round 1 leader in the international feature category.

(Netflix)

1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)

3. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)

4. “Kneecap” (Ireland)

5. “Touch” (Iceland)

6. (tie) “Dahomey” (Senegal)

6. (tie) “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” (Thailand)

6. (tie) “Santosh” (United Kingdom)

6. (tie) “Vermiglio” (Italy)

“ ‘Emilia Pérez’ is the favorite to win this category as it figures to pick up a bevy of nominations in other categories,” says Glenn Whipp. Dave Karger puts it more bluntly: “Clearly, the mystery here is which four films will end up losing to ‘Emilia Pérez.’ ”

Even as critical backlash (or at least, indifference) may be building against the Cannes winner (which failed to medal at the LAFCAs, though it’s in the running in many categories at the CCAs, Golden Globes and many others), “Pérez” remains the BuzzMeter’s top pick to win the international feature Oscar and seriously contend for several others.

Three other contenders are considered in front of the pack of initially 85 entries, now down to 15 on the shortlist: “I’m Still Here,” the first Brazilian feature in more than 15 years by respected Brazilian filmmaker Walter Salles (“Central Station,” “The Motorcycle Diaries”); Germany’s Persian-language “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” whose Iranian-dissident director, Mohammad Rasoulof, was sentenced to eight years in prison by Iranian authorities before fleeing to Germany this year; and “Kneecap,” the hip-hop comedy-drama from Ireland.

Anne Thompson calls “Fig” and “I’m Still Here” “strong, emotional contenders for the final five.” But Amy Nicholson writes, “I’ve had more people come up to me gushing about the Irish delight ‘Kneecap’ than both [‘Pérez’ and ‘Fig’] combined.”

“Flow” has moved ahead of “The Wild Robot” and “Inside Out 2” in the animated feature predictions.

(Festival de Cannes)

“Flow”
“The Wild Robot”

“Inside Out 2”

“Memoir of a Snail”

“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”

“Piece by Piece”

Now that “Flow” has screened, the wordless Latvian submission in the international feature category has sprung to the top of the category (among its honors, it just collected the LAFCA award). It and similarly visually gorgeous and animal-populated “The Wild Robot” rule the roost in Round 2.

“Inside Out 2,” the highest-grossing animated film of all time, the grown-up, Todd Solondz-like, Australian claymation “Memoir of a Snail” (written and directed by Oscar winner Adam Eliot) and the newest chapter in the well-loved “Wallace and Gromit” series, “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl,” all look like solid bets.

“With the deserving ‘Piece by Piece’ seeming to fade, major-studio entries like ‘The Wild Robot’ and ‘Inside Out 2’ will likely compete” with lesser-known titles such as “Flow,” says Dave Karger. “This is a duel between Pixar’s sequel blockbuster ‘Inside Out 2’ and original ‘The Wild Robot,’ which racked up strong numbers as well,” says Anne Thompson.

Awards

Animated contenders spotlight a ghost cat, snail hoarder, robots and a fowl villain

In another year of wildly varied animated features, Japan, Australia, Great Britain and the planet Cybertron send us their best.

Nov. 20, 2024

“Sorry Riley, my inner 13-year-old girl wants the cute kitty to win,” says Amy Nicholson, stumping for “Flow,” though she allows “ ‘Inside Out 2’ is clever— I’ll give it that with no Sar-Chasm. But ‘Flow’ is genuinely emotional and … an even better family movie.” Standing on the other side of that chasm is Glenn Whipp, saying the sequel “was funny, sweet and occasionally profound. And, yes, I found myself wiping away a tear or two. Damn you, Pixar!”

Two major releases that hadn’t screened before voting don’t appear on the list: The wildly popular sequel “Moana 2” and the next step forward in photorealistic digital rendering, Barry Jenkins’ “Mufasa: The Lion King.”

Among others not receiving second-round votes: The anime-style epic “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,” the well-received “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie,” and three remarkable international titles: “Chicken for Linda!,” “Mars Express” and the unique, quirky “Ghost Cat Anzu.”