The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon for the 10th time total and the 4th time since 1997, when Justin Leonard won his only major title. The last Open at Troon saw Henrik Stenson outduel Phil Mickelson to win in record-breaking fashion at 20-under par.
Like most non-Masters majors, course history and data is relatively light but driving does stand out as one key indicator of success. Leaderboards from past Opens at Troon have been filled with precise drivers and long hitters who can blow it over all the trouble.
That being the case, here are a few names I think are good picks this week. All odds are the best available odds listed on Oddschecker at time of publication.
My picks for the favorites to win the 2024 Open Championship
8-1 Rory McIlroy
Let’s start close to the top of the board with Rory McIlroy. He’s coming off of what he admits is the toughest loss of his career just a few weeks back at Pinehurst. But we have constantly seen Rory bounce back from bad holes or rounds with low numbers throughout his career. He’s undeniably playing fantastic golf and has all the tools to win at Troon (he finished T5 in 2016). I think Rory is due for his Virginia Cavaliers men’s basketball moment, from losing to a 16 seed to winning the national title the next year. He is my pick to win this week.
25-1 Jon Rahm
More of a gut play here. The average golf fan hasn’t seen a ton of Rahm this year with his move to LIV, his poor play in the first two majors, not to mention his withdrawal before the US Open with a toe infection. That injury is worrisome, but his T3 finish at LIV Nashville is enough for me to believe he is good to go. I’d imagine Rahm is as motivated as ever to remind the golf world that he is one of the most talented players on the planet. He has finished in the top 3 in 2 of the last 3 Opens. His price of 25-1 and his driving profile makes Rahm a very attractive play this week at Royal Troon.
40-1 Tony Finau
Tony has been playing some really solid golf the past few months. He’s recorded three straight top 10s including a T3 finish at Pinehurst. While driving accuracy is not Finau’s strength, his Data Golf profile does closely match those of Phil Mickelson and J.B. Holmes' in 2016, who finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, at the Open that year. Tony could join a unique trend at Royal Troon of prolific winners winning their first and only major championship there (Henrik Stenson, Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia). Not to say he couldn’t win another, but it would be a possibility.
My sleeper picks to win the 2024 Open Championship
Aaron Rai 70-1
Hard to be a chalky pick at 70-1, but I can’t imagine there will be a trendier longshot than Aaron Rai this week. He is in great form with three straight top 10s including a T4 at the Scottish Open, which got him into the field at Troon. He also is the 2nd most accurate driver of the golf ball in the world the past 6 months according to data golf, an important metric at Royal Troon. Plus, who is better prepared for the rain than the man who rocks to two glove look at all times? My favorite bet of the week is Aaron Rai to finish top 20 at +250.
He also is sponsored by Me and My Golf, who did a wonderful instruction series for GolfPass a few years back. Check it out!
100-1 Akshay Bhatia
Bhatia's steady progress and ability to win at all levels at a young age suggests he's ready to make the leap to major championship success soon - perhaps as soon as the 2024 Open Championship. He drives the ball straight with good distance and has played steadily well this summer, appearing in the final groups on Sunday at both Hartford and Detroit. What's more, he loves to flight and work the ball, which should help him adapt to and embrace links golf quickly. He's also a lefty, like 2016 runner-up Phil Mickelson; the fact that Bhatia will face the interior of Troon's counterclockwise routing while most other players are facing the boundaries on tee shots should give him a comfort advantage.
Who are you putting your money on to win the 2024 Open? Let us know in the comments below.
I've known and played with Tony since he was a teenager. My greatest joy would be to text him and congratulate him on a major win!