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Just saw Emilia Pérez at NYFF and the cast plus Jacques Audiard showed up for a surprise Q&A. It’s a huge love fest. Jacques was so moved by Selena that he kissed her on the forehead. The performances are very strong and they are magic together as they speak about the film. I’m feeling confident that they will win Best Ensemble at SAG.
Additionally, Adriana Paz and Edgar Ramirez don’t have much to do in the film but they’re helpful additions in advocating for the church of Jacques Audiard.
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Hate to use politics as a factor in the race but right now September 5 does not seem well positioned to be a film voters will want to support more. Additionally if it somehow becomes more aware in the general public and faces backlash its chances will get even worse regardless of the films quality
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Saw it at TIFF. Loved it. Best Sean Baker film to date, Mickey Madison knocks it out of the park and will be tough to beat. I don’t see it winning BP over Emilia Perez or The Brutalist. I’d love to see it happen though! Strong contender for Actress, Screenplay, and Editing
IS it divisive or accessible ?
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Why do I feel The Room Next Door will underperformed and barely get Tilda in
because you didn’t realize the Golden Lion winner stats in the last 7 years: all English spoken films and ONE Spanish spoken, were nominated for all big categories (some, even 3 acting nominees) and all of them won at least one of the big 5 (both leads, director, screenplay and picture), with two of the English spoken films winning the combo Picture + Director.
The Room Next Door is one of the films to beat, at this point, it can get up to 3 acting noms (Tilda, Julianne AND John Turturro), adapted, director, picture, score and cinematography…
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Saw it at TIFF. Loved it. Best Sean Baker film to date, Mickey Madison knocks it out of the park and will be tough to beat. I don’t see it winning BP over Emilia Perez or The Brutalist. I’d love to see it happen though! Strong contender for Actress, Screenplay, and Editing
whoever wins Picture, it’s taking Actress, if nominated there, I can’t see any of the films winning with the actress losing it… with the exception that I think The Room Next Door could take the combo Picture AND Director and miss actress because of Tilda and Julianne splitting votes. But Anora doesn’t win without Madison and Emilia Pérez doesn’t win without Karla taking home hers. Or at least, it is how I see it, because the likely winner is A Real Pain, anyways.
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because the likely winner is A Real Pain, anyways.
How? It won’t beat Anora in Screenplay and it will definitely not win Director (it won’t be nominated at all). Culkin is the best shot and don’t see the film winning with only that.
ReplyCopy URLEGOT & Triple Crown of Acting winner, VIOLA DAVIS
2-time Oscar winner, EMMA STONE
Emmy & Tony winner, JODIE COMER
Emmy & Olivier winner, SARAH SNOOK
Berlinale winner & Emmy nominee, SEBASTIAN STAN
How? It won’t beat Anora in Screenplay and it will definitely not win Director (it won’t be nominated at all). Culkin is the best shot and don’t see the film winning with only that.
A Real Pain is coming in the right time, to the right place, given the world’s situation. The Apprentice and September 5 pumping up the political discussion on the race, A Real Pain offers a crowd pleasing gentle reminder of the Holocaust and its effects, without going into the world’s actual situation right now. It’s the film, that no one would really hate, it’s poignant and talks about the lasting and painful effects of genocide, without confronting people, something September 5 does for sure (Palestinians vs Israel) and I really doubt we’ll see a glimpse of sympathy or explanation of what the Palestinian situation was in 1972, which is essential to know and put in the right context what happened in Munich Olympiads, horrible as it was.
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A Real Pain is coming in the right time, to the right place, given the world’s situation. The Apprentice and September 5 pumping up the political discussion on the race, A Real Pain offers a crowd pleasing gentle reminder of the Holocaust and its effects, without going into the world’s actual situation right now. It’s the film, that no one would really hate, it’s poignant and talks about the lasting and painful effects of genocide, without confronting people, something September 5 does for sure (Palestinians vs Israel) and I really doubt we’ll see a glimpse of sympathy or explanation of what the Palestinian situation was in 1972, which is essential to know and put in the right context what happened in Munich Olympiads, horrible as it was.
You cannot win best picture simply because your a light hearted holocaust film that is just not enough to win. Regardless of how well A Real Pain performs it we’ll never be strong enough to win best picture. Right now Anota, the brutalist and Emilia Perez are frontrunners, with Sing Sing and Nickel Boys being the only other films that have a chance at a win path. Those films I listed at the end are not the strongest right now but are the only other films that I could see feasibly having a chance at actually winning best picture. Conclave and blitz feel like films that can be nominated a lot but have no real chance at building a win narrative, and even if dune part two repeats techs and even wins director (very unlikely) I feel it’s almost destined to get the lord of the rings treatment and be celebrated for the end of the trilogy. A real pain is another film that just will not win which seems stupid to make such definite claims in September but that at least is true.
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