It was not a surprise last week when NBC announced that The Tonight Show, the world’s longest-running talk show, is going from five to four nights per week. Tonight was the only one of the major late night shows, which also include CBS’s Late Show and ABC's Jimmy Kimmel Live, that was still broadcasting every weeknight. It didn’t make economic sense to continue.
But it signified more than just a financial decision. NBC’s move to air reruns on Friday nights also represented a capitulation of sorts on the state of late night. The networks have finally begun admitting that it is no longer what it used to be. The question is: What can it evolve into that takes into account both economic realities and the cold hard fact that viewers are no longer as engaged by broadcast TV as they used to be?
And is there even still room for late night in a world where you can access short-form comedy on YouTube 24/7?
The answers are complicated and require a look back to the past at why the format worked to determine whether that can continue into the future.
Late-Night Television Hosts Thrive, Then Dive
When The Tonight Show bowed in 1954 with host Steve Allen, it was a unicorn. A few local affiliates had toyed with late-night programming, and CBS and NBC had briefly aired The Faye Emerson Show, which they dubbed a “15-minute chatfest.” But Allen’s entry was the first late-night program with legs.
It featured a rotating cast of hosts until 1962, and then it really found its stride with Johnny Carson, who stayed on for three decades and ruled the ratings. The show made money hand over fist, since costs were relatively low—Carson’s salary, the crew, the venue.
And even when consistent competition came along, in the form of Arsenio Hall, Joan Rivers, David Letterman and even Chevy Chase (some competitors lasted longer than others), Tonight continued to be profitable.
In fact, the late-night hosting merry-go-round became a pop culture obsession. Carson successor Jay Leno’s “late night wars” with Letterman fueled huge viewership and years of tabloid headlines. Though today’s main trio of late-night hosts (NBC’s Jimmy Fallon, CBS’s Stephen Colbert and ABC’s Kimmel) have made nice, the horse race narrative over who’s beating who in the ratings remains a popular topic.
Yet times, obviously, have changed. For decades, late night was the only choice for TV after 11:30 p.m., and the ratings reflected that. Gradually, numbers declined with the rise of cable and, more significantly, digital entertainment, which allowed people to watch what they wanted when they wanted instead of being forced into one of three choices.
That has sparked changes in recent years. When James Corden left his Late Late Show on CBS, the network replaced him not with a traditional talk show but with a game show format hosted by rising comedian Taylor Tomlinson. Comedy Central, which has one of the few bona fide cable late-night competitors in The Daily Show, still hasn’t officially replaced departed host Trevor Noah. NBC has also saved money by eliminating the live band on Late Night With Seth Meyers.
What’s Next For Late-Night TV
Looking back at that history, it’s clear that some of the things that have worked for late night are lack of competition and riding waves of attention to improve a show’s viewership, such as when Conan O’Brien briefly took over for Leno more than a decade ago and then got a quick hook or when Letterman admitted to an affair. Late night needs to be part of a greater storyline to drive interest.
Alas, you can’t manufacture something like that. And since this group of late-night hosts seems determined to stay above the fray, even doing fun little crossovers into each other’s programs from time to time to show how friendly they are, that probably won’t happen organically.
But something that also worked for late night in the past was gauging its audience. Carson continually tweaked the show based on what worked. Letterman added his own special spin on things. Fallon plays to his past as a Saturday Night Live cast member to add games and sketches to the show. Kimmel’s and Colbert’s social commentary is smart and relevant.
Late night will need more than that kind of innovation to survive, though. The truth is that the format may simply die out due to the economics that forced NBC to pull back on weekly episodes. Several hosts, including Fallon and Meyers, are locked into long-term contracts with several more years on them, so that may prolong any definitive action. But at this point, with ratings on a long decline and the number of choices up, it’s hard to see three major shows surviving for another decade. We’ll likely see fewer and fewer live nights in the meantime.