We're through Week 9 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is still months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.
Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Nov. 5 at 10 a.m. ET
Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The AFC is becoming more and more clear. The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Texans are all essentially locks to make the playoffs with at least 94% chances, and the Steelers (87%) aren't far behind. But the Chargers (78%) are the only other team in the conference above 40% right now.
Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch, either. The FPI believes the AFC West, AFC East and AFC South are all but decided.
The Patriots and Raiders sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances (less than 1%). The Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars all entered the year with 40% odds or better to make the postseason, and they are all below 8% today.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The Lions and Commanders are the only NFC teams above 90% right now to make the playoffs, but the Eagles (90%) and Falcons (89%) loom after Week 9 wins. Three NFC North teams are still looking good, with the Vikings and Packers joining Detroit at over 70% to make the postseason.
No division has a runaway leader, as Atlanta has the best division-winning chances right now at 85% in the NFC South. The Buccaneers are at 15% to win that division and 34% to make the postseason after Monday night's overtime loss to the Chiefs.
The NFC West could be particularly interesting. The Cardinals are currently leading the way at 49% to make the playoffs and 43% to take the West.
The Panthers, Saints and Giants all have less than a 1% chance to make the postseason. But check out the Cowboys down at 3%; they entered the season at 63%!
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)