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Betting buzz: Outrageous props being offered for Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty ran for 186 yards in the first half last week but sat out the second stanza in a blowout win to fall short of his 192.5-yard rushing yards prop. AP Photo/Steve Conner

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Oct. 11: Jeanty, leading in Heisman odds, prompts wild props

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Choose your Heisman: A look at the top contenders after Week 6

Check out the Heisman-worthy numbers from Boise State's Ashton Jeanty, Colorado's Travis Hunter, Miami's Cam Ward, Alabama's Jalen Milroe and Oregon's Dillon Gabriel.

Doug Greenberg: Ashton Jeanty's sudden Heisman campaign has taken the college football world by surprise, including the nation's sportsbooks. Before the season, most shops didn't have the Boise State Broncos running back on their odds boards, with ESPN BET not debuting him until Sept. 6 at 75-1.

Nobody is overlooking Jeanty anymore, as he is now the leader to win college football's highest individual honor, showing +225 odds at ESPN BET, just ahead of Colorado Buffaloes WR/CB Travis Hunter at +325. Jeanty's Heisman odds have been one of the sportsbook's most-bet futures plays in the last week, and DraftKings reports 57% of handle on him since Oct. 5.

Per ESPN Research, however, being the favorite at this point in the season is not always an advantage. Over the last 15 seasons, the Heisman odds leader entering Week 7 has gone on to win the award only once: Lamar Jackson, who in 2016 with Louisville had the shortest odds at this point in the season (-225) for anyone since 2014.

Still, Jeanty makes an extremely compelling Heisman case. The 20-year-old is averaging 10.9 yards per carry, the second-most through five games in the last 20 seasons, and is on pace to break Barry Sanders' single-season FBS rushing yards (2,628) and touchdown (37) records, set in 1988 at Oklahoma State.

It has led sportsbooks to put some eye-popping props on the market for him. ESPN BET is offering -4000 on Jeanty to score a touchdown against Hawaii this week, by far the shortest for any football player it has ever offered -- except for Jeanty last week (-5000). For context, the next shortest after that was Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II (-800) against Tulsa on Sept. 14 and, for the NFL, Christian McCaffrey (-450) against the Washington Commanders on Dec. 31, 2023.

Jeanty's rushing yards props are equally as outrageous. This week and the two before have seen him with rushing yards props exceeding 175 yards each game, peaking at 192.5 against Utah State last week.

The high number led to a particularly peculiar bad beat. Before halftime against the Aggies, Jeanty converted 13 carries into 186 yards and three touchdowns to give the Broncos a 49-17 lead at the break, a lead so insurmountable that the coaches decided to sit him for the entire second half. A brutal break for over backers, who have a chance at redemption this week with the rushing yards prop set at "only" 184.5 for his matchup with Hawai'i.

Oct. 10: Mets expected to be NLCS underdogs to Dodgers or Padres

David Purdum: On June 11, the New York Mets were nine games below .500, their odds to win the National League pennant had drifted to a season-long 100-1 at ESPN BET, and fans were grimacing. At the time, the Pittsburgh Pirates were attracting more support from bettors at BetMGM than the Mets, who were 150-1 long shots to win the World Series. Four months later, though, the Mets are headed to NLCS to face the winner of the San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers series.

Having already secured their spot in the NLCS, the Mets, at +360, were listed as the third-favorite to win the World Series on Thursday at ESPN BET. The New York Yankees (+225) and Dodgers (+325) were just ahead of the Mets.

The Mets are expected to be mid-sized underdogs, around +150 in the NLCS against the Dodgers or Padres, oddsmakers say. The Dodgers host the Padres in a decisive Game 5 of their divisional series Friday and are -145 favorites.

MLB's postseason is full of long shots, including the Mets. The Detroit Tigers were 500-1 to win the World Series in September, and the Kansas City Royals began the season at 150-1. The Tigers lead their divisional series with the Cleveland Guardians 2-1. Detroit is a small underdog in Thursday's Game 4. The Royals trail the Yankees 2-1 in their divisional series and a +125 underdog against the Yankees in Thursday's Game 4.

Oct. 8: New York Jets odds remain stationary after Saleh firing

Doug Greenberg: Coming into the season, the expectations for the New York Jets were high, a notion supported by sportsbooks when they made the team the favorite to win the AFC East. After a 2-3 start, though, the Jets have moved from their opener at +160 to +325, per ESPN BET odds, which is still second best in the dismal division.

The slow start also led to the dismissal of Robert Saleh, the first head-coach firing of the NFL season. Despite the shocking news, New York remains a 2.5-point underdog for Monday night's matchup with the division-leading Buffalo Bills and its futures have remained stationary.

"While the Jets have struggled early on this year, they were one of the most popular teams coming out of the offseason," DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN over text. "With the coaching change, bettors are buying into the fact that this team might still be able to turn things around and reach their full potential."

Indeed, the sportsbooks have serious liability on the Jets from before the season and likely can't afford to make them any more appealing to bettors. BetMGM reported that NYJ is its biggest liability to win the AFC East, and ESPN BET said the Jets had a leading 24% of handle to win the AFC at the beginning of the season.

Bettors are looking to buy low on the team, too; on Tuesday alone at DraftKings, New York has taken 86% of the money to win the division and 49% of the handle to win the conference.

ESPN FPI predicts the Jets still have a 58% chance to make the playoffs, slightly better than the 57% chance they had at the beginning of the season. Entering the campaign, they showed -155 to make the playoffs and sit at +105 as of Tuesday afternoon, per ESPN BET odds.

For more NFL odds to win the division, conference and Super Bowl, click here.

Oct. 5: Vanderbilt upsets No. 1 Alabama as 22.5-point underdog

Greenberg: There are no certainties in college football, especially when it comes to conference rivalries.

Unranked Vanderbilt took down No. 1 Alabama on Saturday evening after closing as a 22.5-point underdog at ESPN BET. It's the second-largest outright upset this season -- behind only Northern Illinois' 28.5-point underdog victory against Notre Dame -- and the largest against a top-ranked team since 2008, when Oregon State took down USC in Corvallis.

The Crimson Tide were a popular pick with the public, attracting upwards of 62% of the bets at BetMGM and maxing out at 89% of ticket share at DraftKings.

It is the Commodores' biggest upset in more than 45 seasons. Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia is now the only starting quarterback in the past 20 seasons to pull off three outright wins as at least a 21-point underdog, having done so with New Mexico State against Auburn in 2023 (+25.5) and against Liberty in 2022 (+24).

Alabama entered Saturday's action as the favorite to win the national championship at +375 and dropped to +550 following the loss, fourth on the odds board behind Ohio State (+325), Georgia (+450) and Texas (+500).

ESPN Research's Mackenzie Kraemer contributed data for this piece.

Other notes from around the country:

  • UConn closed as a 17.5-point favorite over Temple, its largest spread as a favorite over an FBS opponent since 2012. The Huskies won 29-20 in East Hartford, scoring a touchdown as time expired that pushed the game over the total of 48.5.

  • Army and Marshall both won and covered the spread in their games, moving to 5-0 ATS this season.

  • Alabama's Jalen Milroe entered the day as the Heisman Trophy favorite but dropped from +260 to +600 after the loss to Vanderbilt. Boise State running Back Ashton Jeanty is the new Heisman favorite, moving from 10-1 to +275.

Oct. 4: Sportsbooks preparing for under in first NFL London game of the season

Doug Greenberg: The NFL will take its talents to London for the first of three games this season when the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings square off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Because the long travel and jet lag could conceivably affect both teams, neither would seem to draw a betting advantage on the spread, currently set at Vikings -2.5 (-110), per ESPN BET.

A central bet that could be affected, though, is the total, which sits at 40.5 juiced -120 to the under after opening at 41.5 on ESPN BET. It's a low number to be certain (the NFL's average closing total this season is 43.8), but one that makes more sense within the context of this contest.

For starters, Minnesota and New York represent the fourth- and fifth-best scoring defenses in the league, allowing 14.8 and 15.5 points per game, respectively. Both teams show 3-1 records to the under.

Then there's the context of London and European NFL games as a whole. Since 2007, when the league first started playing games across the pond, contests in the United Kingdom show a lean toward the under at 19-17. That record is 5-3 since 2021, including a 3-0 clip for the 2023 season. Adding in the two Germany matchups, European NFL games went 5-0 to the under last season.

The one caveat is that NFL games played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, as Sunday's will be, are 5-3 to the over all-time.

"Travel has something to do with it, not being in your home," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "Some team every week is usually in their home confines, so they're comfortable, the other team is traveling. Well, both teams are traveling here, one team from the East coast, one team from the Midwest."

Avello also notes that scoring is down leaguewide this season, partially the result of declining passing yards.

Still, that hasn't stopped the public from taking the over in the standalone morning game. The majority of bets are on the over at DraftKings, FanDuel and ESPN BET, which reports a high of 87.33% of tickets backing a high-scoring game. BetMGM is the only polled book with more bets backing the under at just 51%. However, BetMGM and ESPN BET also report significant money increases for the under, with DraftKings and FanDuel saying the splits are about the same across tickets and handle.

The NFL's popularity and its associated betting continue to rise in the British Isles. At Paddy Power, a popular sportsbook in the U.K. and Ireland owned by FanDuel parent Flutter, the NFL has gone from the 10th-most popular sport in 2018, to the third-most popular in 2024 due to a "a nearly fivefold increase in the number of regular customers placing bets on the NFL," per a Flutter representative.