Bernardo Arévalo’s victory in the presidential elections marks a significant milestone for Guatemala. But his inauguration is not guaranteed as judicial challenges to his candidacy remain. The international community and the United States must keep the pressure to respect the will of Guatemalans.
Arévalo won a landslide victory over former first lady and three-time candidate Sandra Torres in the runoff on Aug. 20.
While polls prior to the elections had predicted a comfortable victory for Arévalo, his victory is nonetheless surprising given the trajectory of this year’s elections and, in particular, the fact that Arévalo and his political party, Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement) barely won 12% of the votes in the first round on June 25.
Arévalo is an academic, diplomat and activist who worked for many years in the United Nations. He is the son of a political icon, Juan José Arévalo, who won the first democratic elections in Guatemala’s history in 1945 and led a reform movement that was snuffed by a CIA-supported military coup against Jacobo Árbenz, his successor, in 1954.
The coup led to military rule and 36 years of a brutal civil war that killed over 200,000 people. The peace accords in the 1990s that ended Guatemala’s civil war ushered a period of electoral democracy, but unfortunately, also brought with it weak institutional accountability, and the armed forces have remained a significant political force.
In particular, Guatemalan democracy has been under siege for years from entrenched corrupt interests that have embedded themselves in the country’s economy, politics and government. These illicit “dark” networks have strong links to former military officers, transnational criminal networks and economic sectors that control important contraband trade routes, and are involved in money laundering, drug and human trafficking, as well as exerting extensive influence over key political and government sectors. Nearly every president in the last two decades has been mired in corruption and ended their mandate badly.
A glimmer of hope emerged in 2006 when the United Nations established the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala with the support of the Guatemalan government. The CICIG had some significant victories in fighting corruption, but the entrenched networks never stopped their assault on the commission on the grounds that it violated Guatemala’s sovereignty. Despite having come to power on an anti-corruption platform, former President Jimmy Morales finally expelled and disbanded the CICIG in 2019.
Since then, the country’s judicial system has been used by these networks to attack political opponents and provide impunity to corrupt politicians, particularly members of Congress.
The attorney general’s office in particular, with the acquiescence of certain judges, manipulated electoral laws to disqualify up to six presidential candidates in the lead-up to the June 25 first round of elections. Polling at less than 5%, Arévalo was not considered a serious contender and thus was ignored by these disqualification efforts.
To the surprise of many observers, Semilla finished second to Torres’ party, the National Unity of Hope, receiving 12% of the votes. Nearly 24% either voted blank or spoiled their ballots, with Torres receiving the most votes at barely 16%.
Soon after the first round, the attorney general sought to disqualify Semilla and Arévalo’s candidacies from the runoff, alleging that the party had illegally obtained signatures during the process of registration. In a power struggle between the attorney general, certain compliant judges, the electoral authority and the Supreme Court, Semilla and Arévalo were finally allowed to participate in the runoff election.
International pressure, particularly from the United States, also played a significant role in preventing the disqualification of Arévalo’s candidacy. However, soon after the results of the elections were known, the attorney general’s office announced it would continue with the legal challenges against Semilla, raising a cloud over the transition.
To his credit, the incumbent president, Alejandro Giammattei, who has been complicit in the machinations of the attorney general, congratulated Arévalo and promised a smooth transition. Unfortunately, Torres, the defeated candidate, has yet to congratulate the winner and her party has issued ominous statements alluding vaguely to the possibility of fraud.
The next few months are crucial for Guatemala’s democratic future. If judicial challenges prevent Arévalo from being inaugurated on Jan. 14, it will be a setback for democracy which Guatemala may not easily overcome.
Even if he manages to be inaugurated, Arévalo will face the enormous task of reconstructing democratic institutions free of the corrosive influence of former military officers, transnational organized crime and corrupt economic elites.
Arévalo will have to forge alliances in a highly divided Congress where Semilla will only have 23 seats in the 160-seat unicameral Legislature. He also will need to rely on civil society and public support to pressure Parliament and political parties to support strong anti-corruption measures, particularly guaranteeing the independence of the judiciary and other accountability agencies and establishing transparency in the allocation of government contracts and the distribution of government expenditures.
The United States and the international community should play an important role in guaranteeing that Guatemala has a smooth presidential transition by strongly condemning any attempts to thwart the will of the people, and by making it clear to the Giammattei administration that any move to prevent Arévalo from coming to power will be met with swift and decisive actions.
The U.S. government has already slapped sanctions on 10 Guatemalan officials, including prosecutors and judges, accused of undermining democracy and targeting journalists and political opponents. But additional steps might need to be taken if the onslaught against President-elect Arévalo continues.
U.S. policy in the region has often placed a premium on stopping migration flows, which encourages governments to militarize their borders and increase police powers. This has resulted in counterproductive policies that weaken democratic governance. Assuming Arévalo reaches the presidency, the U.S. will need to focus relations on key steps to combat corruption by using bilateral assistance to promote economic development, increase trade, reduce crime and violence, and support an independent judiciary. The U.S. should also work collaboratively with the international community to reestablish strong anti-corruption initiatives..
In a region where Nicaragua is now a full-blown dictatorship; El Salvador has moved closer than ever to a dictatorship; and Honduras has not lived up to the expectations of the 2021 elections; the victory of Arévalo in Guatemala represents a glimmer of hope for democratic governance in Central America. But only if the international community and the United States are willing to support the necessary reforms to wrest control of Guatemala’s government from the clutches of criminal networks.
Orlando J. Pérez is professor of political science at the University of North Texas at Dallas, author of “Civil-Military Relations in Post-Conflict Societies: Transforming the Role of the Military in Central America” and co-author of “Making Police Reform Matter in Latin America.” He wrote this column for The Dallas Morning News.
Part of our “The Unraveling of Latin America” series. In this column, the author warns that judicial challenges for Guatemala’s new president would undermine democracy in the Central American nation
We welcome your thoughts in a letter to the editor. See the guidelines and submit your letter here. If you have problems with the form, you can submit via email at [email protected]