Rishi Sunak INSISTED on braving the rain for his election speech

For a man taking the biggest gamble of his career, Rishi Sunak did not look lucky. Moments after he arrived at the lectern in Downing Street to announce a snap election on July 4, the heavens opened and a protester at the gates began to blare out New Labour's theme tune, Things Can Only Get Better, on a massive sound system. By the end of a lengthy speech, onlookers were deafened by the music and the Prime Minister was drenched, his suit ruined. It was an inauspicious start.

One senior Tory described the moment as 'a catastrophe', adding: 'The speech was rambling and unfocused – and the images… he looked like he was drowning. After that we really are in a position where things can only get better.' Insiders revealed that the PM had shunned suggestions about making the announcement indoors. 'He wanted to go out and talk to the country,' one said, adding: 'I think people will appreciate the determination it showed.' 

Plans for a snap election had been closely guarded and MPs were left stunned yesterday as rumours began to swirl around Westminster that the PM was preparing to roll the dice. The first clue came on his whirlwind trip to Austria on Tuesday when observers noted that Mr Sunak was in a buoyant mood. 'He was so chipper it was almost weird,' one said. 'It was like a weight had been lifted off his shoulders.' What almost no-one in Westminster knew at the time – including most of his most senior ministers and aides – was that the Prime Minister had made up his mind to end the phoney election campaign and trigger the real thing. In fact, the trip to Vienna, which lasted less than 12 hours, now looks like a deliberate ruse to throw observers, including his own Cabinet, off the scent.

It meant that the usual Tuesday morning Cabinet meeting was postponed until Wednesday afternoon, shortly before the PM's regular weekly audience with the King, who has to give permission for an election to be called. Suddenly the PM could consult his Cabinet and inform the King without having to make any obvious changes to his schedule to alert the outside world of his dramatic decision. Only when it emerged that Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps were being recalled from abroad to attend the crunch Cabinet meeting did the rumours start to harden up.

The subterfuge was designed to mask a bombshell decision which has been in the PM's mind for months, but which crystallised only in the past few days. Most senior Tories believed the PM had abandoned the idea of a summer election after Tory plotters seeking to depose him threw in the towel following the local elections at the start of this month. Received wisdom was that, with the threat to his leadership gone, Mr Sunak would seek to extend his reign to two years by delaying the poll until November in the hope 'something would turn up'.

But privately Mr Sunak and his chief-of-staff Liam Booth-Smith continued to harbour doubts about the wisdom of antagonising grumpy voters further by delaying the election. They also believed that springing a sudden election could throw an under-prepared Labour Party off guard. Behind the scenes, ministers were ordered to start work on manifesto plans two months ago. Discussions went into overdrive in the wake of the local elections, which Tory strategists believe were less grim than the headline results suggested. Other factors also came into play. Yesterday's sharp fall in inflation to 2.3 per cent allowed Mr Sunak to declare that the economic shocks of the past few years were now 'squarely in the rear-view mirror'.

'People just aren't listening at the moment,' one Tory source said. 'We have to get them to focus on the choice ahead and it's become increasingly obvious that the only way to do that is to call an election.' Another source close to the PM said: 'There's no perfect time to do this but he thinks it is better to create these dividing lines now and force people to make a choice.' Jitters over small boats also played a part. The PM hopes the first deportation flight to Rwanda will take off before the election – and he is ready to overrule any attempt by the European courts to block it. But Tory strategists believe many more flights would be needed to stop the boats.

Another factor has been the debilitating impact of continuing Tory infighting, resignations and defections, which have led some senior figures to question whether they can even keep the show on the road until November. In other words, the PM has become convinced that bad as things look now, they could be even worse by the autumn. Allies admit it is a huge gamble but say the PM is 'feeling lucky' after some positive news on the economy. One said that even his beloved Southampton's play-off victory over West Brom last week had left him feeling 'on a winning streak'. But many jittery Tory MPs are feeling much less lucky and were bombarding No 10 yesterday afternoon with warnings about the risks of going for a snap election.

One former Cabinet minister said: 'I told them they were off their rockers to be thinking about a summer election. We are 20 points down, we need time to let the better economic news have an impact, we need another round of tax cuts and we need to get those flights off to Rwanda – that is critical. To go now is madness.' Another senior Tory said it would be '[self-murder]' to call an early election. But one Tory knight of the shires said: 'There is something going on that the polls are not picking up. Labour have a 1997-style lead but it does not feel like 1997. Yes, our people are grumpy with us. But they are not enthused by Keir Starmer and they are not switching to Labour in the way they did back then. It is closer than people think.' The Tory knight, however, has announced he is standing down. Those Conservative MPs hoping to return after the election were last night struggling to find a silver lining in the rain clouds.

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