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Can Argentina complete the tremendously impressive “sandwich” of two Copa America wins wrapped around a World Cup title? Or will Los Cafeteros defy the odds with just their second-ever Copa America title and their first since a triumph in 2001?
Featuring a major local Colombian community and of course the home of Lionel Messi’s MLS side, Miami will serve as the perfect backdrop for this Copa America Final on Sunday, the conclusion of what has been a fantastically thrilling and ever-dramatic tournament.
With Argentina looking to continue a run of dominance and a generation of Colombian legends looking to avoid departing the game without a trophy for their nation, the stakes are as high as can be. Let’s take a look at this monumental clash with a prediction and pick.
Argentina vs. Colombia odds
- Moneyline: Argentina +115 | Draw +195 | Colombia +320
- To win the Cup: Argentina -195 | Colombia +145
- Total: Over 1.5 goals: -180 | Under 1.5 goals: +140
Odds via DraftKings
Argentina vs. Colombia prediction
(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports)
The first thing we need to talk about when we look at the odds for this game is the goalscoring total of just 1.5. The over is favored, but not disproportionately, making this unorthodox line a fascinating one.
Yes, both of these teams- especially Colombia within the context of this tournament- are characterized by free-flowing, attacking football, but goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez has once again stepped up for Argentina to have a huge summer, and moreover, cup finals in today’s era tend to be cagey, measured and low-scoring. So, with the scenario and actual team-to-team matchup at odds, the best policy here is to simply leave the total alone.
Argentina also haven’t looked like the side that tore through international football in 2021 and 2022. Lionel Messi has been a positive, but not his usual greatest-of-all-time self, as he’s dealt with some fitness issues; he only has two goal contributions, both of which came against Canada in Argentina’s two matchups against that squad.
Meanwhile, a “past-prime” veteran has been right at the center of Colombia’s efforts; James Rodrígues, known for always being at his best when representing his nation, has lived up to that billing in this tournament with an astounding six assists in five matches, including three in the knockout stages highlighted by one for the lone goal in the win over Uruguay. Age surely has taken its toll, as the 33-year-old Rodríguez has yet to play a full 90 minutes in any one match, but when he’s on the pitch, he’s as creative and impactful as he’s ever been.
Colombia are in better form and based on their path in this tournament, more battle-tested over the course of this summer. They’ve even looked better, smashing through Panama while Argentina needed penalties to get through Ecuador, and putting up the signature win of the entire tournament in the semifinal against Uruguay.
With all of that being said, Colombia will need to do everything they can to get out to a lead- while Rodríguez is on the pitch- and win in regulation. Martínez has proven time and time again that he’s nearly unbeatable in clutch situations, especially penalty shootouts; if this match is level after 90 minutes, the more-experienced Argentina team has the edge. Usually, penalties are the great equalizer, called a “lottery” by some, but with Martínez wearing an Argentina shirt, the gap that only becomes more pronounced should the match reach that stage.
Argentina vs. Colombia pick
Just under 23 years ago, captain Iván Córdoba fired in a 65th minute goal that stood as the only goal of the 2001 Copa America final, granting Colombia its first and only major international trophy. On Sunday, on the shoulders of a new cast of heroes, Los Cafeteros will lift their second, after a tournament run of delightful football predicted by few but enjoyed by so many.
We’ll invest in Colombia to get the job done in regulation. It’s not a lock, but with +320 odds, the value is simply too good to miss, much better than Colombia’s line to lift the cup, given Rodríguez’s limitations and Argentina’s big-tournament experience.
Best bet: Colombia moneyline (+320 at DraftKings)