NBA Offseason 2024: What might the Wizards get if they trade their veterans?

The NBA is officially into...whatever the heck this part of the season calendar is called. It’s when teams and players are allowed to negotiate and reach agreements but not allowed to actually sign the contracts until later. Makes sense to someone, I guess.

Bright side: maybe we can get another social media saga like that time DeAndre Jordan agreed to terms with the Dallas Mavericks, changed his mind and agreed to re-sign with the Los Angeles Clippers, and then had teammates babysit spend the night with him to make sure he didn’t change his mind again.

Meanwhile Mark Cuban cruised the city streets in a limo† sending texts and calls into the void hoping against hope he could re-recruit Jordan to Dallas.

† — It may not have actually been a limo.

I’m idly wondering what that kind of drama might look like if another team decided they need to pay Richaun Holmes $25 million to be their third center. Would Washington Wizards veterans gather up the guys and sequester themselves with Holmes at Kyle Kuzma’s house? Too obvious — Cuban (or whatever overly involved team owner) would surely think of that first.

Maybe Bilal Coulibaly’s place? There’s probably at least a doorman at his building. Or Deni Avdija’s. It could be quite the send-off party.

As would be expected for a team planning another year of tanking, the Wizards have not been (and won’t be) high-profile participants in the NBA’s non-draft offseason shenanigans. That could change once higher profile free agents have chosen their future homes.

While the Wizards were one of the NBA’s three worst teams last season (the Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets were arguably worse) they’re not completely devoid of talent that might be worth something to contending teams. Will Dawkins, Michael Winger, and Travis Schlenk will be chatting up teams higher on the food chain in hopes of swapping some of the veteran “not devoid of talent” for younger players and draft picks.

I imagine a number of trade conversations starting something like, “If Mikal Bridges is worth five firsts, Kuzma is worth...” only to be interrupted with, “Forget Bridges. Let’s get real.”

To my mind, a more realistic barometer is the draft-day trade the Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers completed sending 23-year-old Deni Avdija west for two first round picks, two second round picks, and the expiring contract of Malcolm Brogdon.

In that deal, the Wizards got the picks plus a still-useful veteran for a still-young forward on a reasonable contract coming off the best season of his career. That “best season of his career” rated about average in an array of good stat tools, including my PPA metric.

Note: to say Avdija rated about average last season is a) not an insult, and b) does not preclude him continuing to improve. “Best season of his career” and “about average according to various metrics” are factual statements. He’s likely to continue improving to some degree, which is likely priced into the return Washington got for him.

Based on the return the Wizards got for Avdija, as well as other non-outlier trades around the league, what might the trade values be for other Wizards’ veterans?

Kyle Kuzma — An average veteran forward (according to the same good stat tools mentioned in relation to Avdija) signed on a not-terribly expensive contract that declines in value over the next three seasons. Kuzma is a player whose reputation significantly exceeds the quality of his on-court performance.

That said, he’s been the fourth or fifth best player on a championship team, and it would be easy to envision the front office of a contending team talking themselves into Kuzma becoming more efficient on offense and paying more attention to defense in their star-led ecosystem.

Given that he’s entering his age 29 season, I suspect his trade value is lower than Avdija’s. Perhaps one unprotected (or lightly protected) first round that conveys relatively soon (2025 or 2026) plus a player and some second round picks. My guess is that Kuzma won’t fetch another first round pick unless a) it’s so heavily protected it ultimately converts to seconds, b) it’s paired with the kind of contract that will cause rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth, or c) someone gets desperate.

Corey Kispert — Good shooter who learned how to attack closeouts effectively last season. His overall impact is solidly below average and is still limited to scoring. The idea of Kispert is that he’ll be better — or at least more useful — on a contending team with stars who draw defensive attention and leave him open looks from deep.

I think that might be true in the regular season, but that Kispert is also likely to be targeted defensively in the postseason, and that he’ll get swiftly played off the court. If I — someone with a laptop and a league pass subscription — can see this, surely front offices around the league will notice this as well.

So what might the Wizards get in a trade? Maybe — maybe — a late first. More likely, a 2-3 second round picks.

Malcolm Brogdon — Above average guard who can do a bit of everything — shoot, play-make, defend, lead. He’s entering his age 32 season, he’s oft-injured, and he’s entering the final year of his contract. Each of these factors will likely diminish his value.

It’s conceivable the Wizards could trade him to a team with cap space that strikes out and wants a decent veteran to help them win next season while leaving them the option of re-entering free agency from a stronger position in 2025. Washington might get a couple second round picks in that kind of scenario.

It’s also possible Washington could combine Brogdon and the re-signed Holmes before the next trade deadline to acquire take on a younger player with some ability (and a big contract), or take on a terrible contract and a first round pick for the trouble.

It’s also entirely possible Brogdon finishes the season in Washington and becomes cap space for them in 2025.

Tyus Jones — A little tricky because Jones is an unrestricted free agent who can sign anywhere. Despite all the fan complaining about his style of play, Jones is a good player with a positive offensive impact. He was a not-bad defender with the Memphis Grizzlies, which did not carry over to his year with the Wizards.

It’s unlikely to me for Jones to be a free agent target of a cap space team. More likely, he’ll be pursued by contending teams that could use a steady, professional third guard. He can sign a midlevel deal just about anywhere, so it might be worth those contending teams to consider a sign-and-trade.

In that scenario, I could envision the Wizards getting young players who have disappointed thus far or who need more “development” time plus second round picks. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where Jones nets Washington a first round pick.

Jordan Poole — Unlikely to get moved this offseason after the disastrous 2023-24 season Poole turned in. For the Wizards to get anything of value for Poole, they’ll need him to play better than he did at the end of last season when his issues were allegedly fixed (spoiler: they weren’t, at least not completely).

Landry Shamet — The team (and Shamet) were smart to push his option pick-up date to mid-July. A team that whiffs in free agency or has some left over money could swap a second round pick to absorb Shamet’s salary and have a kinda-sorta almost useful rotation guy on the roster.

I could also see a team giving up a disappointing youngster, some salary ballast, and a second round pick for Shamet.

Marvin Bagley III — Bagley’s on-court production probably warrants a first round pick or a pair of seconds. The issue is how often he’s able to be on-court. The guy has talent, but he’s always hurt. Until he can stay healthy for a sustained stretch — maybe half a season — it’s improbable the Wizards could get much of value for him.