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How small gains delivered Trump a big win

Getty Images A pro-Trump supporter holds a banner in Times Square on election day, 5 November in New York City. Getty Images

Donald Trump landed his historic second United States presidency thanks to small increases in support - but lots of them, reaching across the country.

Votes are still being counted, but a picture is emerging of what tipped the balance in Trump's favour. They include small but widespread gains from many sources.

The map below shows in red the states where Trump won. Kamala Harris's victories are shown in blue.

For the data in the map, click here

Trump gathered the 270 electoral college votes needed to win after capturing three battleground states from the Democrats: Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, shown in red stripes.

More gains followed in Michigan, Nevada and finally Arizona.

Margins of victory

The swing towards Trump happened across the country, as shown in the county level map below, although counting continues in many states especially in the west.

Harris led by tens of thousands of votes in major cities.

But Trump dominated the rural counties that lie between them. His wins may not appear to be as sizeable, but they are pervasive. And those margins add up.

Map showing the results of the 2024 Presidential election and how the votes swung between the parties between 2020 and 2024. The votes swung in Donald Trump's favour across the country. His biggest swing was in Maverick Texas up by 28 points on 2020. The county with the biggest swing away from the Republicans was in Ashe, North Carolina down by 7. The biggest swing to the Democrats was in Henry, Georgia up by 9 points on 2020. The county with the biggest swing away from the Democrats was Rio Arriba, New Mexico down by 14 points.

In 2020, Joe Biden turned many of Pennsylvania's counties Democrat blue - particularly those near the eastern city of Philadelphia. In 2024, voters seem to have reversed their positions as more votes in the eastern parts of the state went to Trump.

Around Georgia’s major metropolis of Atlanta, votes for Harris were higher than for Biden. But almost everywhere else went further red, the colour of the Republican party, and this picture could become clearer as more votes are tallied.

In Wisconsin, Trump won by less than one percentage point - about 30,000 votes at latest count.

Bar chart showing in the Presidential race in Wisconsin where Donald Trump is on 49.6% and Kamala Harris is on 48.8% after 99% of the vote has been counted.

It is difficult to identify a single group or area in the state that moved the needle towards Trump.

His share of the vote increased by less than 5% in all but a handful of counties across the state, compared with 2020.

If you look at the map below the change is almost imperceptible.

County maps of Wisconsin showing presidential results in 2020 and 2024. There are very slight changes in vote share. Sauk County, an area in the central south near Madison, is the only county to have flipped from Democrat to Republican.

Harris did well in the traditional Democratic urban strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison; voters came out for her in large numbers.

Yet it was Trump’s small but widespread gains in counties across the state that did the trick.

Trump gains with Hispanic Nevadans

Trump has taken Nevada, the first Republican win in the western battleground since 2004.

In the vote tally so far, there has been little change among the largest groups of voters.

Black voters chose Harris in similar numbers as they did Biden, while white voters maintained their support for Trump.

Yet the exit poll suggested Trump saw a substantial increase in support among Hispanic and Asian voters, with Harris losing ground compared with Biden four years ago.

Trump raised his share among Hispanic voters in Nevada by 13 points compared with 2020, which meant he and Harris ended up in a tie, both securing 48% of that vote.

Nevada exit poll: Race White: Harris 43% Trump 55%, Black: Harris 82% Trump 17% Hispanic / Latino 48% 48% Asian Harris 47%, Trump 50% Polls are an approximate guide to candidate support and all figures have a margin of error

He also enjoyed a very substantial swing among Nevada’s Asian voters, from 35% in 2020 to 50% in 2024.

While the Asian community accounts for just 4% of voters surveyed, we’ve seen how similarly small shifts made the difference elsewhere.

People voted for change

While the picture in the states that flipped will become clearer in the coming days, we can see some emerging trends on how different groups of people voted across the nation from US exit polls.

These cut across demographic groups and regions.

On immigration and the economy, Trump was seen as the overwhelming favourite among voters for whom either was the most important issue.

Exit poll chart. 90% of people who said immigration was their top issue were Trump voters. And 80% of those who said the economy was most important. Conversely, 80% of those who said the state of democracy was top were Harris voters.

For voters who felt strongly about abortion or the state of democracy, three-quarters or more voted for Harris.

This suggests a stark difference in priorities across the two groups of voters.

Both campaigns emphasised these diverging issues in recent weeks, and it’s clear the messaging cut through.

The personalities of the candidates themselves may also have played a role in how ballots were cast.

For those looking for a presidential candidate who would “bring needed change” to the country, a large majority voted for Trump. And two-thirds of those who most valued leadership skills did the same.

Exit poll question, which of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? Trump voters tended to choose "Can bring needed change" and "Has the ability of lead" Harris voters chose "Cares about people like me" and "Has good judgment"

A large majority of Harris voters chose her because they felt she had good judgement and “cared about people like me”.

But the desire for change can be a powerful force when it comes to the way voters choose to cast their ballot.

Produced by Wesley Stephenson, Becky Dale, Christine Jeavans, Libby Rogers, Alison Benjamin, Zak Datson, Muskeen Liddar, Erwan Rivault, John Walton, Callum Thomson, Rob England, Phil Leake, Daniel Wainwright