NEW: Hurricane center gives high chances to tropical wave developing in Atlantic

An eager tropical wave in the simmering main development region of the Atlantic Ocean has a high chance of becoming the next named storm over the next seven days with a tropical cyclone likely to form this weekend as it approaches the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center, which identified the area Tuesday and upgraded it to Invest 95-L early Thursday morning, said environmental conditions in the central and western tropical Atlantic are "unusually conducive for late June."

There is no threat to Florida or the U.S. coast for now.

Sea surface temperatures in the storm-fertile zone between Africa and the Caribbean are between 3.6 and 7 degrees above normal for this time of year, providing ample fuel for a system if other conditions align, such as lower wind shear and moist air.

The NHC now has 95-L up to a 70% chance of formation over the next seven days. The next names on the 2024 hurricane list are Beryl and Chris.

More: 2024 hurricane season: Forecasts all point to a busy season with La Niña and warm ocean temps

Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist with Weather.com, questioned the viability of 95-L in a social media post Thursday asking if there is enough wind shear and dry air to disrupt the system once it enters the Caribbean Sea next week.

But, he notes ominously, we're "only about to step on the first rung of this ladder."

Research meteorologist Ryan Maue is more bullish on the system's potential.

"Forecasters becoming more concerned about disturbance out in the Atlantic that will likely develop into a tropical storm and powerful hurricane," he wrote on social media. "Nothing imminent, and 10-14 days away from any potential U.S. threat. So we will watch!"

Saharan dust still a player

The largest plume of Saharan dust this hurricane season is traversing the Atlantic, but so far 95-L and another area in the western Caribbean Sea — 94-L — are shrugging off its dry air. The area in the Caribbean has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days and may run out of time before it hits land in Central America or Mexico.

FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross called the potential for more tropical cyclones in June "unusual."

But he said 95-L is at such a low latitude it's not having to fight off as much Saharan dust, and could draw enough moisture from its south to push away the troublesome dry air.

"Yesterday, a number of the computer simulations showed the system developing into a hurricane next week," Norcross wrote in his Hurricane Intel blog. "Today, the various computer models mostly show a weaker system heading west."

Tropical Storm Alberto is the only named storm to form in the Atlantic this season.

A majority of seasonal hurricane forecasts predicted an active season this year because of an emerging La Niña climate pattern and record warm sea surface temperatures.

AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said the season so far has mimicked a typical year, although it may have seemed achingly slow until this week because there have been several recent past years that came racing out of the gate. In 2023, tropical storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed in June. Two years earlier, in 2021, three tropical storms — Bill, Claudette, and Danny — and Hurricane Elsa formed in June.

But, on average, the first named storm of a season forms on June 20, DaSilva said. Alberto formed June 19. The second named storm doesn’t typically form until July 17, with the third trailing on Aug. 3.

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: National hurricane center tracking two systems in the Atlantic