Inflation expectations

This working paper gathers three projects of articles which have as a same subject inflation expectations and their use within the framework of monetary policy. It appeared convenient to synthesize them in the form of three parts of only one document, thus making it possible to the reader to have a vision as complete as possible on this question. The first part is of a theoretical nature and presents the literature. The second points out this literature, specifies the characteristics of a monetary policy founded on a direct target of inflation, and proposes an econometric analyse in the French case. The third extends this methodology to the case of the euro zone and shows the difficulties of it.

Long-run and short-run inflation expectations indicate the quality of anchoring and central bank credibility for its inflations target and expected pass-through of inflationary shocks. In this paper we provide a comprehensive literature review and find that changes and credibility of policy targets are passed through long-run and short-run expectations while shocks affect mainly short-run expectations and influence long-run expectations if they are sequential and not-accommodated. We exemplify our hypothesizes by empirical models and find that short-term expectations compared to the medium-term have a weaker link to long-term expectations.

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that takes into account country-specific characteristics, the stance of monetary and fiscal policies, marginal costs and exogenous supply shocks. The empirical results indicate that high and climbing inflation could easily seep

Spreads on government bonds are a collective expression of differences in the level of development, risk, expected returns and other essential characteristics of states or regions the bond yields of which we wish to compare. At issue here is a collective expression of factors that work on the bond supply and demand side. These are for example the political environment

Following up on Glatzer, Gnan and Valderrama (2006), we investigate two further channels through which globalization may have dampened inflation in the euro area: first, changed incentives for policymakers; second, global demand and supply conditions. Our empirical evidence shows that the domestic output gap seems to have lost its influence on inflation in the euro area; however, we cannot confirm that euro area inflation is instead significantly influenced by the global output gap. Therefore and because of daunting measurement problems, we caution against attaching undue weight to global output gap developments in central banks’ reaction functions. The flattening of the euro area Phillips curve – together with weakened monetary policy control over inflation due to increasing global long-term interest links and heightened uncertainty for policymakers due to globalization – calls for the stabilization of inflation expectations as a primary goal for monetary policy. Central banks shou...

In this article we analyse inflation expectations in Mexico. After a review of the theoretical and empirical literature, we apply unit root, normality and cointegration tests to the data provided by Banco de México (Banxico) in the Survey on the Expectations of the Private Sector Economics Specialists. Our results reject the null hypothesis of normality for inflation expectations over the period 2004:01–2011:12. The exchange rate has become one of the most relevant variables in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a small open economy. In this regard, we show the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and interest rate where inflation expectations matter for long-term dynamics.

El presente documento realiza tres ejercicios empíricos para los temas de compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad del Banco de México. En última instancia, se busca responder al porqué, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación (2003-2020), el Banco de México ha mostrado dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%. Ya que, como lo indican los promedios de las series de tiempo, durante este periodo los niveles de la inflación y de las distintas expectativas de inflación se han ubicado por encima de la meta. Si bien los resultados confirman la credibilidad que tiene el Banco de México con el mantener una inflación baja y estable; siguiendo una regla de Taylor, se encuentra evidencia que, durante el periodo 2003-2020, el Banco de México ha sido tolerante con brechas positivas en el nivel de inflación (acentuándose, de manera significativa, durante el 2015-2020). En otras palabras, los resultados del documento sugieren que, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación, el Banco de México ha ajustado su tasa de interés en busca de un nivel de inflación que se ubique en el intervalo que va del 3% + 1 punto porcentual pero no en la meta del 3%. Asimismo, resulta interesante que, del 2007 al 2020, cambios en la tasa de interés hayan sido motivados por brechas en el nivel de producción (tal como si el banco central mantuviese un mandato dual). Finalmente, a través de la construcción de un índice de comunicación que emplea los anuncios de política monetaria, se encuentra evidencia que la comunicación del Banco de México influye en las expectativas de inflación implícitas en instrumentos financieros y permite anticipar futuros movimientos en la tasa de interés (“forward guidance”).

Recent cross-country empirical evidence indicates that the money-prices relationship depends on the average rate of inflation. This relationship is strong in economies with high inflation, but weakens under low inflation. Based on these findings, we study the dependence of the money-prices relationship on the level of inflation in Argentina along the last 35 years. We use descriptive analysis as well

We find the Phillips-type model performs well in explaining wage adjustment for US non-farm business, US manufacturing, and NY manufacturing sector, showing a typical adjustment to price inflation expectation and labor market tightness. While the basic wage model shows evidence of a structural shift for the post-1991 period, this is not evident in the adjusted models for both US non-farm business and NY manufacturing, implying that the observed structural shift for the post-1991 period is likely to be the result of model mis-, or under-specification. The effect of the fraction of unemployment due to permanent job loss on wage inflation appears to be manufacturing-specific, while a smaller adjustment to price inflation expectation appears to be state-specific. On the other hand, the significant effect of the percent of adults unemployed appears to be a national phenomenon.

We find the Phillips-type model performs well in explaining wage adjustment for US non-farm business, US manufacturing, and NY manufacturing sector, showing a typical adjustment to price inflation expectation and labor market tightness. While the basic wage model shows evidence of a structural shift for the post-1991 period, this is not evident in the adjusted models for both US non-farm

This paper uses multiple cointegration analysis to estimate simultaneously a monetary reaction function and the determinants of expected inflation for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. In addition, M-GARCH modeling is used to test for the presence of volatility spillovers between the monetary stance and inflation expectations. The analysis shows that there are long-term relationships between the interest rate, expected inflation,