Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

GLOBAL MEGA FORCES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF NATURAL RESOURCES George H. Kubik Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These forces are examined in terms of their possible, probable, and preferable future impacts on natural resources. The paper is presented in two stages. First, it identifies seven commonly cited categories of existing, emerging, and projected global mega forces for direction and implications. Next, two technological mega forces with potential for high impact—networked sensoractuator technologies and electronic performanceware systems—are identified and examined in detail. INTRODUCTION The intent of this paper is two-fold: First, to stimulate strategic thinking about the future of natural resources based on emerging mega forces, and second, to identify exemplars of the implications of these mega forces for the future of natural resources. These objectives are accomplished by identifying a series of major global forces, the factors that drive them, and their implications for natural resource futures. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for high-impact outcomes in the future. The forces are outlined in terms of the emerging challenges and opportunities they present for policy makers, decisionmakers, and practitioners who will determine the future of natural resources. The approach involves a description of the major forces likely to shape future events. It is not a prediction or prescription of which specific futures will actually occur. Rather, a limited number of forces are presented that can be anticipated to produce disproportionate influences on the future. Why is the study of global mega forces important to the future of natural resources? Accelerating change and complexity are anticipated to dominate the global scene in future decades (Enriquez 2001, Micklethwait and Wooldridge 1996), placing escalating pressures on how social-ecological systems will operate and what they will become. In the midst of these interacting forces the role of anticipatory, future-savvy leaders and decisionmakers will be crucial to outcomes for society and natural resources. An understanding of futures thinking and global forces enhances organizations’ and individuals’ ability to think strategically and proactively about the future. Such strategic thinking is especially important in natural resource management. In addition, this approach helps to prepare organizations and individuals to respond more effectively to future alternatives—both foreseen and unforeseen. Thus, decisionmakers, policy formulators, and practitioners can all be expected to benefit from an increased understanding of global forces coupled with knowledge of futures studies. In futures research, it is important to understand that the future is not predictable in detail. Throughout history there have been many attempts to predict the future, from the prophecies of ancient Egyptian priests and the Greek Oracles at the Temple of Delphi, to those of American economist Ben Bernanke, current chairman of the Federal Reserve. However, attempts at prediction have proven to be largely unsuccessful in the long term as science increasingly recognizes the limits to prediction and modeling in complex systems (Batty and Torrens 2001). According to Batty and Torrens, current scientific prediction is characteristically embedded in qualification. At the same time, science is becoming less oriented to prediction and more directed toward the development of understanding as a framework for structuring debate. While some scientists assert that the future is rendered more predictable with the generation of greater information, other scientists are beginning to challenge this traditional assumption (Cunningham et al. 2002, Gell-Mann 1994). For example, recent studies in complexity theory have argued that the generation of additional data does not ensure improved outcomes, Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 25 greater predictability, or risk reduction when dealing with chaotic or complex adaptive systems (Briggs and Peat 1999, Holling 1978). In these frameworks, bifurcations, emergent processes, and discontinuous events confound predictive efforts—despite information. So what does this mean to the future of natural resources? With so many forces and variables at work, is it hopeless to try to anticipate the future? Proponents of futures research would typically respond to these questions by stating that, while we cannot predict the future, we can anticipate a range of possible, probable, and preferable future outcomes, and use that information to influence the future. Let’s examine this rationale. Futures research is premised on the basic principle of unpredictability: that is, the future is inherently unpredictable in detail, many alternative futures are possible, and specific future outcomes cannot be known with certainty. However, while futures research is not focused on predicting the future, it does assume that a disciplined futures research approach aids in shaping preferred future outcomes. Future outcomes can be positively influenced by improving forecasting and futures-oriented decisionmaking in the present. Further, knowledge of global forces and pertinent variables contributes to the robustness of the futuring process and its outcomes. The incorporation of a futures approach and a knowledge of global forces provides four distinct advantages to policy makers, decisionmakers, and practitioners: it increases the robustness of our forecasting ability in the natural sciences, amplifies our understanding of emerging phenomena in this area, better prepares us for working with uncertainty, and enhances our ability to create and communicate our visions of preferred futures. Internet forms a global communications network that is always on, offering electronic services on demand. No society, enterprise, or individual is immune to the cascading changes that are being produced by this development. It is in this milieu that societies and natural resource managers everywhere are being challenged to develop robust frameworks that will successfully guide them into the future. Why are some forces and their impacts more important than others—and often, more difficult to identify? The culprit here is the increased dimensionality of the changes. Change is occurring along three dimensions—speed, complexity, and magnitude of impacts. Historically, we have experienced rapid change primarily across one dimension, or sometimes two. But rarely has rapid change occurred across all three of these dimensions at the same time. Making this process more difficult is the nature of the interactions taking place among global forces and pertinent variables. Scientists are increasingly discovering that the relationships among these forces are characteristically non-linear and complex in nature; that is, they do not operate in direct proportion to each other (Briggs and Peat 1999). Similar to Newton’s famous three-body problem in physics, the outcomes of these interacting forces are, in large part, not subject to easy projection or modeling using the conventional tools of science. Futures research aids us in: (1) understanding the non-linear relationships existing among global forces, (2) more effectively addressing global forces and uncertainties across all three dimensions of change, and (3) coping with increasing uncertainty in the future(s) of natural sciences. SEVEN GLOBAL MEGA FORCES Understanding the importance of global mega forces in terms of emerging natural resource futures requires an awareness of the changing nature of change. The accelerating generation of data, information, knowledge, and ideas is bringing about profound global changes in almost every area of life. Bits are replacing atoms, telecommunication is instantaneous, and digital technologies are everywhere. Information flows freely around the world 24 hours a day, every day—and the 26 Many global forces are at work shaping the future. Some of these forces have been long recognized and typically include political, demographic, economic, sociocultural, and technological dimensions. More recently, the list of categories of global forces has been expanded to include environmental, scientific, and information dimensions. Many other global mega forces are less widely recognized. Often, these forces are outside our Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 traditional scanning focus, believed to exceed the scope of our mission, or considered to be beyond our ability to address in a scientific manner. Other forces and variables may be considered to be outside our ability to effectively intervene. In contravention to this theme, I assert that it is important to recognize that we influence, and are influenced by, the full spectrum of global factors. Without an awareness of the major forces at work, deciphering the future can seem like embarking on a road trip without a roadmap or a destination. While many global mega forces and trends are present, we focus on seven easily recognizable mega forces: demographics, globalization, economics, work, digital networks, information, and digital technologies. For the most part these forces are already well known, but that knowledge may not be evenly distributed and the implications for natural resources not examined. In the following subsections, each mega force is briefly described and then possible implications for natural resources are outlined. 1. Demographics Demographic mega forces typically encompass major changes in characteristics occurring among populations. Examples include age, gender, race, employment, and location. Demographic change is always a fundamental driver of long-term social change (Schwartz 2003). Two examples of mega forces in demographic change are presented here: population growth and urbanization. A. Population growth. Population growth is a commonly cited demographic mega force. The current world population is approximately 7 billion people and increasing. However, population growth rates are unevenly distributed among nations and peoples. For example, Beazley (2009) has projected that China, Russia, and Japan will exhibit relatively low changes in population size during the period 2009 to 2050. During that same interval, Beazley has projected that the population of India will increase dramatically from 1.135 billion to 1.592 billion, Nigeria from 137 million to 258 million, Bangladesh from 147 million to 243 million, and Pakistan from 164 million to 305 million. In general, the population of Europe is expected to decline during that same period from 729 million to 517 million, while less developed countries are expected to account for 70 percent of global population growth by 2030 (Beazley 2009, McKinsey and Company 2010). Continued world population growth will place growing pressures on the global land base and water resources. Differences in population growth rates among nations will result in accelerating conflicts over natural resources, and will be a major factor in influencing natural resource decisions and policies around the globe. Population growth and increasing affluence will amplify the need to conserve natural resources in the face of escalating demands for their consumptive use, such as agriculture and resource extraction (Hall et al. 2000, Organ and Fritzell 2000). B. Urbanization. There is a continuous and substantive transition in populations from rural to urban among most nations around the globe (Beazley 2009). For the first time in history, more people are living in cities than in rural areas and their work and social preferences are changing. Rising urban populations are creating major changes in expectations regarding the sharing of global wealth, the right to meaningful work, and access to educational resources. An increasing percentage of the world’s population will be located in urban areas and demand new forms of access to natural resources. Urbanization will result in accelerated trends toward consumptive practices and increases in waste disposal, pollution, and toxic discharges. Urban populations will tend to be more highly educated and expect greater participation in natural resource decisionmaking and policy formulation around the globe. 2. Globalization Globalization refers to the ongoing process by which regional economies, societies, and cultures are becoming increasingly integrated through a globe-spanning network of communication and trade (Friedman 2007). Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 27 Increased globalization will require adoption of a broader, more international view of natural resources by countries, enterprises, and individuals everywhere. Adoption of a global agenda for natural resources will be demanded as historical and locality-based natural resource agendas become increasingly irrelevant. Furthermore, an increasing percentage of the world’s population will demand direct involvement in natural resource decisions and planning. 3. Economics Major shifts are occurring in the economic leadership of the global economy. Maddison (2007) documented the peaking of the United States’ share of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the 1950s and contrasted it to Asia’s rising share of GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund, GDP is the most commonly used single measure of a country’s overall economic activity. It is especially notable that China and India have dominated world GDP during 14 of the last 16 centuries, while North America and Western Europe have enjoyed less than 200 years at the top of the world GDP list. At the same time, historical and geographical divisions of individual economies are becoming less relevant in the context of the rising and interconnected global market. As Friedman (2007) has noted, the world is flat—or at least becoming flatter. Funding priorities for natural resources will begin to shift in unforeseen directions as a result of globalized economic interests in the environment and changes in the relative GDP standings of nations. Economic actions taken in one part of the world will no longer be viewed as localized or separate from the rest of the world. 4. Work New generations of workers are increasingly mobile and educated, and always plugged-in. Work environments are characterized by accelerating change, anytimeanywhere connectedness, rapidly redefined roles and competencies, an explosion in open source innovation, greater involvement and collaboration, and unprecedented increases in complexity and uncertainty. Emerging work challenges are demanding new forms of enterprises that are capable of greater and faster 28 organizational agility, resiliency, and fluidity, and better and faster decisionmaking (Hamel 2007, Rubinstein and Firstenberg 1999, Ulrich 2000). As the nature of work quickly evolves and more workers are drawn into the global workforce, workers’ expectations and priorities for leisure and recreation are also changing. Greater affluence for segments of the world’s population is being accompanied by shifts in lifestyle preferences and leisure activities. In “The Rise of the Creative Class”, Florida (2002) has argued that high-income individuals place an elevated value on active outdoor recreational activities exemplified by mountain biking, kayaking, trail running, snowboarding, and rock face climbing. Increases in these activities, and similar leisure vectors, can be expected to produce future shifts in environmental and natural resource orientations. Growing rejection of resource-consumptive and polluting industries will further impact the future of natural resource management decisions and planning. 5. Digital Networks An explosion is occurring in the development, availability, and widespread use of digital networks in all areas of human activities (Tapscott 1996, Tapscott and Williams 2010). Digital networks are stimulating major transformations in the nature of work, learning, society, and leisure. The global Internet is exerting unforeseen impacts on every aspect of living and working around the globe. The business world commonly uses three types of digital networks: the Global Area Network, which we identify as the Internet; Wide Area Networks; and Local Area Networks. Other types of networks are quickly emerging. Rapidly evolving personal networks include Personal Area Networks and Body Area Networks (Dertouzos 1997, Heinrich 2005). These networks provide personal connectivity for individuals and are projected to use fabric for circuitry and body movement for power generation (Starner 1996). Other developing network configurations involve System Area Networks, Home Area Networks, and Car Area Networks. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 Vastly improved access to people, devices, and information is redefining work, leisure, learning, and social activities around the globe. Natural resource landscapes that were formerly remote from most of the world’s population will come under increased scrutiny, monitoring, and review by globally networked individuals with access to vast arrays of natural resource information and networked sensors. Social media such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube will enhance the ability to disseminate opinions, videos, and information about natural resource activities everywhere. Internet forums, weblogs, social blogs, microblogging, wikis, and podcasts will increasingly impact natural resource decisionmakers, policy makers, and practitioners everywhere as greater percentages of the world’s population become connected, networked, aware of natural resource issues, and demand to have their voices heard. 6. Information In 1996 former President William J. Clinton stated, “When I took office, only high energy physicists had ever heard of what is called the World Wide Web . . . Now even my cat has its own page” (Ingenito 2010: 9). The number of Internet users is growing exponentially. The total number of Internet users worldwide has increased from 16 million Internet users (0.4 percent of the world’s population) in 1995 to over 2.1 billion users (30.4 percent of the world’s population) today (Internet World Stats 2011a). Asia currently accounts for 44.0 percent of the world’s Internet users, while Europe accounts for 22.7 percent, and North American usage accounts for 13.0 percent (Internet World Stats 2011b). According to Internet World Stats (2011b), the Internet penetration rate is currently 78.3 percent for North America, 58.3 percent for Europe, and 23.8 percent for Asia. Nearly every individual around the globe will have access to the Internet in the future. The Internet will be a ready source of information to increase awareness and understanding about natural resources and the decisions that affect them. Natural resource decisionmakers, policy planners, and practitioners will become increasingly accountable in ways and to degrees that are currently unforeseen. The result will be greater scrutiny of natural resource activities and increased demands for meaningful participation—from everywhere. 7. Digital Technologies Digital technologies in the form of computers, telecommunications, sensors, and actuators are becoming ubiquitous and increasingly transparent in operation. As a result, an explosion of collected data, the generation of new information and knowledge, and unforeseen developments in scientific visualization, intelligent devices, and performance amplification and augmentation systems are occurring. Digital technologies are becoming faster, cheaper, smaller, networked, and capable of operating at all scales. They are increasingly blending into the backgrounds of built and natural environments. Emerging digital technologies are rapidly transforming every aspect of human life (Martin 1996, Tapscott 1996, Tapscott and Williams 2010). Digital technologies increase our ability to monitor and learn about natural resources, communicate our opinions and priorities to others, and act on our decisions. One important outcome of this development is how we consider and interact with natural versus built environments. The growing presence of digital technologies can be expected to radically alter traditional definitions and distinctions between natural and built environments. It can be anticipated that future debates and exchanges concerning natural versus built or engineered environments will radically influence how we define and experience natural resources in the future (Kahn 2011). OTHER GLOBAL FORCES OF SPECIAL SIGNIFICANCE There are obviously many other significant global forces at work that offer the potential to impact natural resources in the future. However, they are too numerous to list and individually address in this paper. A few illustrative global forces include emerging “new economics,” changing societal values, political power shifts, biotechnology, greening movements, transgenic organisms,1 alternative energy sources, and technologies for sustainability. Instead of expanding on these forces, 1 Transgenic organisms are genetically modified or engineered organisms whose genetic material has been altered through the use of one or more technologies. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 29 the remainder of this paper will address two specific mega forces that exhibit high potential to impact the future of societies and natural resources: networked sensor-actuator systems and Electronic Performance Enhancement Systems (EPES). Together, these mega forces are already beginning to demonstrate their ability to transform natural resources everywhere. Networked sensor-actuator systems Sensors are devices designed to perceive environmental states, monitor changes in environmental conditions, and communicate the resulting data to interrogators or other nodes (Culler et al. 2004, Heinrich 2005). Sensors are built or grown to detect wide ranges of variables including temperature, altitude, light, chemical composition, weight, pressure, proximity, and acceleration. Specific functions include pattern recognition, environmental analysis, and monitoring. The development of sensor webs is of special importance to natural resources. Sensor webs were first described by NASA in 1997 in reference to networks of sensors that communicate wirelessly and self-organize in ways that permit individual sensor components to act and coordinate as a unit. Actuators are the counterpart to sensors. They are cybernetic devices designed to control or regulate some aspect of the environment by physically acting on the environment to bring about a change in a predetermined condition or status. Actuators are important because they permit matter to become an active agent rather than an inert substance (Glenn 1989). Actuators can be used for a variety of purposes over a wide range of environments. Applications include fly-by-wire control of aircraft, regulation of automated machining tools on factory floors, remote release of chemicals to reduce insect populations, triggering of stomata to control transpiration rates in leaves, or the activation of fire suppression systems in response to significant increases in ambient temperature. Networked sensors and actuators are already present in large numbers in our homes and businesses—and the natural environment. They are primarily used for monitoring, tracking, and controlling functions. Networked sensor-actuator systems are present in 30 factory assembly lines, aircraft and vehicles, home thermostats, medical dosage regulators, agricultural fertilizer applicators, weather monitors, tracking collars for endangered species, and indicators for diseased trees in forests. The rapid expansion of research, development, and application of networked sensors and actuators has been well documented over the last several decades. These efforts have resulted in an explosion in the number of networked instrumentation and activation systems that are embedded in natural and built environments around the planet. Illustrating this point, Kelly (1998) observed that the number of computer chips embedded in objects is increasing at a much faster rate than the number of computer chips located in computers. It is notable that networked sensors and actuators are being generated at ever-decreasing scales. For example, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is designing networked sensor-actuator systems (also known as “smart dust” or “smart mote” technologies) to be produced in extremely large numbers at the nanometer level. This scale is representative of a new class of nanotechnology machines operating at the molecular and sub-molecular levels, where one nanometer equals one billionth of a meter (Kurzweil 2005). Drexler (1986), Drexler and Peterson (1991), and Regis (1995) have forecast that these micro and nano-scale artifacts will become cheap enough, and small enough, to drift in the air, be embedded in buildings and appliances, become part of organisms, be plowed into the soil, and become infused in the water. Advancements in the development of smart dust technologies represent a significant factor in the expanding field of networked sensor-actuator technology (Heinrich 2005, Kahn et al. 2000). Self-organizing networked sensor-actuator systems operating at this level are frequently termed swarm technologies. Swarm technologies require that each distinct component sensor and/or actuator in the network be mobile, selfpowered, and able to dynamically re-configure its role and relationships to conform to changes in environment, group objectives, network relationships, and relative and absolute position (Kurzweil 2005). Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 The following paragraphs summarize some trends in the development of networked sensor-actuator systems. Connecting people, objects, and environments. The emerging ability to connect people, objects, and environments requires ongoing developments in the density, scale, and intelligence of connectivity. A recent example is development of the 2011 Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) addressing standard. This standard was designed to replace the prior Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) that was first implemented in 1981. Adoption of the new IPv6 standard provides the ability to address many more devices in the present, and more importantly, in the future. How many devices could be connected? Davies (2012) has stated that the IPv6 Internet Protocol, also known as the Next Generation Internet Protocol or IPng, is capable of connecting approximately 3.402 x 1038 addresses. This very large address space is capable of connecting 6.65 x 1023 devices for every square meter of the earth’s surface, or over a thousand devices for every atom on the surface of the earth (Davies 2012). Building networked sensors and actuators at nano-levels. Another requirement for developing future sensoractuator networks is the ability to design and build these devices at ever-decreasing scales—eventually approaching the nanometer level. Current developments in this area include devices being built at the scale of approximately 1 to 100 nanometers (1-100 x 10-9 meters). Kaku (2011) and in a seminal work Drexler (1986) have asserted that projections of nanotechnology futures suggest these machines will be sufficiently large in number and small in size as to eventually vanish from human awareness and perception. Nanometer devices are initially expensive to design and prototype. However, the primary cost of these systems is incurred in the design and testing stages rather than production. Once designed and tested, sensor-actuator networks could be assembled (or grown) using highly automated reprogrammable assembly lines, or be designed for self-replication. Scientists such as Drexler (1986), Drexler and Peterson (1991), and von Neumann (Brown 2000) developed the concept of self-replicating automata as a means of future fabrication of devices such as networked sensors and actuators. Their approach suggests that future self-replicating devices of this nature would possess the capability of mass reproduction and be able to generate copies of themselves at geometrically increasing rates. Everyone and everything becoming plugged-in. It is projected that sensor-actuator networks will become ubiquitous in future built and natural environments. This projection anticipates a world where individuals and environments are increasingly “plugged-in” to each other. In this future world everyone would have the capability to connect to everything else—in homes, businesses, and natural resources. Realization of this outcome will require the expanding development and application of smart networks operating at a variety of scales including Global Area Networks, Wide Area Networks, Local Area Networks, Personal Area Networks, and Body Area Networks. Future applications in the natural resource area could include smart Forest Area Networks, Ecosystem Area Networks, Tree Area Networks, Microagronomy Area Networks, or individual Critter Area Networks. This view of the future holds the promise that everyone will have the option of being connected to everyone else, and to everything else, on the planet. As future smart sensor and actuator networks become ubiquitously embedded throughout the globe, these devices will hold the potential to connect to every blade of grass, every leaf, and every organism on the planet. Indeed, this will be the dawn of a connected planet. Why is this connectedness important? As objects become smarter, networked, and capable of both sensing and acting on their environments, they radically expand and redefine the options available for natural resource managers. Networked ecologies of things that continuously monitor and act on their environments, and update data in real time, also provide alternatives to traditional concepts of labor-intensive data collection, static information systems, and legacy approaches to planning and decisionmaking. Environmental processes infused with multitudes of networked sensors and actuators will increasingly enable natural resource environments to be monitored Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 31 continuously, controlled more precisely, and acted on more quickly. Natural resource agencies that take advantage of these capabilities stand to be more proactive, anticipatory, and agile, rather than reactive or slow responding. An example of a next step in this projected evolution is the development of a smarter planet. A smarter planet. IBM recently introduced a marketing campaign premised on building a smarter planet (Palmisano 2008). The company’s assertion is that the planet is rapidly becoming more instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent. It has projected this concept across a wide spectrum of applications that thematically include buildings, businesses, cities, energy, education, healthcare, security, transportation, and water. IBM’s view of the future provides an interesting perspective. Its premise is that the world is becoming smaller, flatter, and smarter and the application of technology will facilitate this process through increased digital instrumentation, interconnection, and embedded intelligence. It proposes to accomplish this goal by embedding large numbers of networked sensors and actuators in our built and natural environments, and by creating increasingly smarter digital systems to coordinate their functions. Some have taken this view of the future even further. American author, inventor, and futurist Raymond Kurzweil (2005) has forecast that humanity will eventually impart intelligence to every atom in the universe using smarter digital technologies. Perhaps Kurzweil’s forecast will be realized someday. In the interim, this view suggests a greatly expanded role for smart, networked sensors and effectors in the future(s) of natural resources. Electronic Performance Enhancement Systems The world is entering a new age characterized by demands for accelerating human performance. This new age demands faster work outputs that are of higher quality than their predecessors. Significantly, it also requires leading-edge knowledge, innovation, and 32 idea workers at a time when these resources are only beginning to be understood as capital assets (Dickelman 1999, Stewart 1997). It can be anticipated that the future of natural resources work will closely parallel demands for work performance made elsewhere in the economy. This view of the future suggests that decisionmaking, policy development, and associated natural resources work will continue to become more complex and demanding. It is also indicative of the need for future natural resource workers who will be capable of providing world-class performance on demand, anytime and anywhere. To respond to this challenge, it is probable that future natural resources work will increasingly involve the application of networked smart technologies, tools, and environments. Projections of future smart tool technologies suggest that these devices will exhibit two notable characteristics: they will actively learn as they are used and continuously reprogram themselves in response to changing needs. Smart tools will also exist in the form of smart environments that contain embedded intelligence. Autonomous and semi-autonomous robots will be another example. Future projections suggest that these mind-tools will be capable of evolving independently of their initial design parameters and will demonstrate greater intelligence over time (Kaku 2011, Kurzweil 2005). They will also operate transparently in the background. The purpose of these smart tools and environments will be specific: to augment and amplify human ability to conduct work. Electronic Performance Enhancement Systems constitute a major response to future performance challenges. EPES are a class of rapidly emerging technology-based systems designed to enhance human ability to learn and perform cognitive-based work. These performanceware systems are composed of hardware and software components that work together to fuse the processes of learning and doing among users, and provide this capability on demand (Rosenberg 2001). EPES will enable future decisionmakers, policy formulators, and practitioners to immediately engage in Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 leading-edge performance situations. Performanceware systems will also eliminate extensive periods of pretraining and education as prerequisites for performance. The overall intent is to amplify and augment both professionals and novices in any environments—physical or virtual—and to enable peak performance under any conditions. It can be projected that EPES will be a leading factor in 21st-century work and learning (Winslow and Bramer 1994). EPES are an outgrowth of earlier computer-enhanced learning systems exemplified by Computer-Based Training, Intelligent Computer-Assisted Instruction, and Intelligent Tutoring Systems (Gery et al. 1999, Mandl and Lesgold 1988). These systems were based primarily on the application of expert systems and advances in Human-Computer Interface technologies. The business world in particular has developed and applied variants identified as Decision Support Systems, Executive Information Systems, Executive Support Systems, and Electronic Performance Support Systems. These precursors to EPES were developed mainly by business, education, and military interests, and have been widely applied throughout these enterprises. Future development and application of EPES will continue to depend on the fusion of a variety of separately evolving technologies. These technologies include artificial intelligence, computers, expert systems, neural networks, and telecommunications. Expertise on a chip. Why is the escalating development and application of electronic performanceware systems important to the future of natural resources? Today, we observe the presence of performanceware systems largely in the form of expert systems made up of embedded subroutines. The purpose of these systems is largely to automate routine and repetitious tasks and off-load the functions into silicon. These systems reduce the cognitive workload of natural resource workers by handling recurring work. Examples include the Apple iPhone and similar devices that are revolutionizing how we communicate, learn, and conduct work (Kelly 2010, Tapscott and Williams 2010). These and similar devices are already impacting natural resource work by providing expertise-on-a-chip. Projections indicate an escalating demand for improved work performance. This mega force will continue well into the future as we face the full impacts of the emerging 7 billion mind economy. One strategy is to embed smarter devices in our environments, tools, and bodies. Evolving performanceware systems in the form of EPES represent a major opportunity to augment and amplify our ability to continuously deliver world-class performance on behalf of natural resources. Earlier in this paper we noted that future generations of natural resource workers will be highly mobile, educated, and always plugged-in. The question is, “What will they be plugged into—and why?” CONCLUDING THOUGHTS Current design strategies for EPES outline several commonly shared building blocks. EPES, intelligent software agents, and smart systems (which include emerging classes of smart robots) are frequently characterized as anticipatory, interconnected, knowledgeable, trustworthy, networked, convenient, reliable, and helpful (Aarts et al. 2002, Kaku 2011). They provide assistance in response to user inquiries such as “help me,” “explain to me,” “orient me,” “show me,” and “do for me.” They help close the otherwise widening gap between relatively slowly developing human competencies, abilities, and knowledge, and the exponential increases that characterize digitally based machine capabilities and information resources. The purpose of this paper has been to address the subject of mega forces of change. Seven broad mega forces were identified and their implications for natural resources briefly touched upon. Limitations in the length of this paper precluded further description and detail. The paper also explored two leading mega forces in greater detail. These mega forces were identified as developments in networked sensor-actuator technologies and Electronic Performance Enhancement Systems. It was asserted that the future impact of these mega forces on natural resources would prove to be nothing less than revolutionary. Their potential impacts may even be compared to the combined historical impacts of the printing press and electricity. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 33 We conclude with a key question: What difference might we be able to make by adding formalized futures thinking to our conceptual resources? 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