Open Education 2030: planning the future of adult learning in Europe

This art icle was downloaded by: [ I nst Prospect Tech St udies] On: 11 March 2014, At : 06: 22 Publisher: Rout ledge I nform a Lt d Regist ered in England and Wales Regist ered Num ber: 1072954 Regist ered office: Mort im er House, 37- 41 Mort im er St reet , London W1T 3JH, UK Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Distance and e-Learning Publicat ion det ails, including inst ruct ions f or aut hors and subscript ion inf ormat ion: ht t p: / / www. t andf online. com/ loi/ copl20 Open Education 2030: planning the future of adult learning in Europe a a a Jonat an Cast año Muñoz , Christ ine Redecker , Riina Vuorikari & Yves Punie a a Inst it ut e f or Prospect ive Technological St udies, Joint Research Cent re, European Commission, Seville, Spain Published online: 10 Mar 2014. To cite this article: Jonat an Cast año Muñoz, Christ ine Redecker, Riina Vuorikari & Yves Punie (2013) Open Educat ion 2030: planning t he f ut ure of adult learning in Europe, Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Dist ance and e-Learning, 28: 3, 171-186, DOI: 10. 1080/ 02680513. 2013. 871199 To link to this article: ht t p: / / dx. doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 02680513. 2013. 871199 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTI CLE Taylor & Francis m akes every effort t o ensure t he accuracy of all t he inform at ion ( t he “ Cont ent ” ) cont ained in t he publicat ions on our plat form . However, Taylor & Francis, our agent s, and our licensors m ake no represent at ions or warrant ies what soever as t o t he accuracy, com plet eness, or suit abilit y for any purpose of t he Cont ent . Any opinions and views expressed in t his publicat ion are t he opinions and views of t he aut hors, and are not t he views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. 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Term s & Condit ions of access and use can be found at ht t p: / / www.t andfonline.com / page/ t erm sand- condit ions Open Learning, 2013 Vol. 28, No. 3, 171–186, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02680513.2013.871199 Open Education 2030: planning the future of adult learning in Europe Jonatan Castaño Muñoz*, Christine Redecker, Riina Vuorikari and Yves Punie Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Seville, Spain Adult learning and open education have become key elements on the European Agenda. This paper presents the first results of a foresight activity that aims to contribute to an understanding of how ‘Opening up Education’ can improve adult learning in Europe in the future. It argues that to open up adult learning two main challenges must be overcome: the extent to which learners need guidance and, depending on the learning goals, the extent to which learners need recognition and certification. On the basis of these challenges, four non-exclusive scenarios are presented, illustrating different versions and contexts for open adult learning. The main conclusion of the paper is that in order to enhance the quality of adult learning and to avoid the risk of social exclusion, policy-makers need to develop a framework that allows learners to flexibly move between different learning scenarios. Learners also need to acquire ‘Open Education Competences’. Finally, a roadmap is presented outlining how this future vision could be implemented. Keywords: open education; lifelong learning; adult learning; open educational resources; foresight; future; scenarios Introduction As reflected in the Europe 2020 strategy, education has become a priority in European policies. Education and training systems need to offer solutions to the key challenges that Europe is facing in the form of demographic change, global competition, technological development and the current economic crisis (e.g. CEDEFOP, 2012a). Human capital theory argues that the value of competences expires with time, and this is especially true in the changing world of the twenty-first century. Lifelong learning (defined by CEDEFOP, 2003) is a priority; Europeans must pursue continuous learning and up-skilling throughout their lives. This is a key factor for employment and economic success and also for enabling people to participate fully in society. Against this background, in 2011 the renewed European Agenda for Adult Learning was approved (European Commission, 2011). Adult learning is understood to cover all formal, non-formal and informal learning undertaken by adults after they have left their initial education and training, whether for professional reasons (such as re-skilling and up-skilling) or for private purposes (e.g. social, cultural, artistic and societal learning) (European Commission, 2013a). The above-mentioned agenda focuses especially on disadvantaged groups *Corresponding author. Email: [email protected] © 2014 The Open University Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 172 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. (low-skilled individuals or early school leavers) and calls for a holistic approach to adult learning: improving access for all individuals, investing in guidance and validation systems, sharing responsibilities while maintaining public commitment, investing in learning at work and investing in and understanding the benefits of learning at older ages and intergenerational learning. In parallel, expanding learning opportunities through the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been highlighted as an opportunity to innovate and increase the quality of the educational systems. Taking as a starting point the definition of open learning that gives to the learner a degree of flexibility in the choice of topics, place, pace and/or method (CEDEFOP, 2004), in this paper open education is defined as the learning experience that gives the learner a degree of flexibility in the choice of what (topics), where (place), when (pace) and how (method) to learn/study. The use of ICT to foster this kind of learning has proved useful in many ways: removing the entry barriers to education; allowing access to knowledge anytime and anywhere; increasing the possibility of collaboration with others; enhancing the opportunities for personalisation (including different paces and pathways for learning); and facilitating the possibility of self-directed learning through access to open educational resources (OER; defined by UNESCO, 2012) and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), to mention but a few. Open learning opportunities in this sense are especially relevant when considering adult learning. Adult learners have different time constraints (e.g. due to job and family responsibilities) and their expectations and ambitions differ from those of traditional learners (Schuetze & Slowey, 2002). Additionally, adult learners’ previous experiences can play a role when directing their learning for personal or career-oriented goals (Falconer, McGill, Littlejohn, & Boursinou, 2013). The introduction of ICT in education has started to change the context for adult learning considerably: however, this is still in the early stages and the future could be shaped in different ways (Falconer et al., 2013). To better understand how the recent Commission Communication ‘Opening up Education’ (European Commission, 2013b) can improve and enhance education and training in Europe in the future, the JRC-IPTS has recently undertaken on behalf of Directorate-General Education and Culture a foresight study, which focused on the three areas of school education, higher education and adult learning. A series of actions was initiated by IPTS in the spring of 2013 including a call for vision papers on open education in 20302 and three foresight workshops. The aim of the workshops was to develop desirable scenarios for ‘Open Education 2030’ in each of the focus areas. The workshop on Adult Learning was held in April 2013. During two days, 24 experts discussed the key trends and drivers; developed a vision for the future of open adult learning through different scenarios and participated in a roadmapping exercise including policy recommendations to arrive to the agreed vision. This paper summarises the first results of the foresight exercise on the future of open adult learning. The consolidated final report including the outputs of the three sectors is expected to be released in 2014. Trends, drivers and barriers in open adult learning The future of open adult learning has to be discussed against the background of broader trends that will shape how European societies and their education systems may develop in the future. These trends include the following: Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Open Learning 173  Globalisation. Globalisation is a common trend in all sectors of society, and education is no exception (Altbach, Reisberg, & Rumbley, 2009; OECD, 2013). Traditionally, educational systems are local, but currently there is an increasing number of cross-border and collaborative initiatives (e.g. Erasmus programme, eTwinning) that overcome country boundaries and promote learner mobility (Alexiadou & van de Bunt-Kokhuis, 2013; OECD, 2004). Additionally, the current trend towards more personalised and customised learning opportunities gives more weight to ‘glocalization’3 and personal needs. For example, OER can be criticised because they do not fit with context-specific needs (Willems & Bossu, 2012) for a particular language other than English, which is the language most often used (Cobo, 2013).  Demographics. The main demographic trend and key challenge for Europe in the future is the ageing of society. In 1950 the average age in OECD countries was 28 years, in 2010 it was 38 years and by 2100 it is estimated it will be around 45 years (OECD, 2013). The ageing of the European population implies an increasing number of adult learners who have a higher demand for lifelong learning as a way to update their professional skills or as a form of active ageing (Ala-Mutka, Malanowski, Punie, & Cabrera, 2008). In an ageing society, it is difficult to deliver the required absolute number of tertiary-level educated young people to maintain knowledge-based economic growth (Punie & Cabrera, 2005). Therefore, tertiary education must become more open to non-traditional learners (Slowey & Schuetze, 2012). Education and training systems will have to respond to the fact that there will be an increasing number of people demanding more open and flexible ways of learning.  Labour market. The economic environment is also expected to shape the evolution of open adult learning. Currently, the European economy is changing towards a more knowledge-based economy where routine, low-qualification tasks are less required by the labour market and are being substituted by complex and high-qualification, more specialised skills that people will have to continuously update (CEDEFOP, 2012b). Additionally, the economic crisis is increasing the need for up-skilling and re-skilling in order to improve employability. A mismatch exists between people’s skills and the needs of labour markets (CEDEFOP, 2012b). This trend is increasing the need for flexible lifelong learning that is adapted to the needs of adult learners (Redecker et al., 2011).  Technological developments and the open education movement. The constant evolution of technologies will continue to affect the educational sector in the future. Current technological developments tend to facilitate a greater openness and flexibility (Kahle, 2010). One of the underlying premises of open education is the availability and accessibility of technological solutions through the Internet. These solutions enable and encourage access to educational resources, learning communities and to the global exchange of knowledge. Examples are OER, Open Course Ware and MOOCs, which cannot be understood without the technological capacity to disseminate knowledge and to enhance communication (Thomas, Campbell, & Barker, 2012). Surprisingly, however, despite these driving forces, the potential of open education and OER to support adult learning has not yet been exploited widely. Compared with other educational sectors, adult learning is the sector with a lowest level of Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 174 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. OER development (Minguillón, Rodriguez, & Conesa, 2010). Some of the reasons for this, outlined in a recent study on behalf of IPTS by Falconer et al. (2013), are as follows. The novelty of the concept of OER in the field of adult learning and the lack of cultural recognition that learning can have outside formal structures is a barrier. Related to this, the institutional and teacher-directed pedagogic approach envisaged by most OER initiatives does not fit well with the needs of adult learners. Also, the lack of coordination between adult leaning initiatives, combined with the lack of credible forms of assessment and recognition of open adult learning. is problematic. Last, the lack of digital, self-learning skills and sometimes language skills of a generation of learners educated in a time when these skills were not part of the curricula can cause difficulties. On the basis of the above trends and bottlenecks, participants in the workshop were consulted on a vision of open adult learning in the future. In the following section, we first explain this vision and then continue with different scenarios that can be adapted to different learning situations. The vision for 2030 The workshop participants agreed that by 2030 adult learning will be ubiquitous and the digital divide will be less of an issue; it was assumed that ICT and the technological infrastructure would develop continuously and there would be an abundance of adaptable OER in all languages. Knowledge and content are expected to be available to users for free. However, for additional educational services, a payment could be necessary (cf. Mulder, 2013). Ideally, by 2030 there will be a combination of providers of OER (e.g. government, experts, communities, learners, industry and publishers). In the case of adult learning, the decentralised production of resources will be a must in order to cover the diversity of resources and aims encompassed by this sector. In the future, pedagogy will situate learners at the centre of the learning process, which they control themselves when they have the necessary skills to be successful. Social learning opportunities will be more abundant than today, thanks to an emphasis on learning within networks and communities. In 2030, the current trend towards ever more abundant data will be consolidated, and it is expected that this will play a big role in the instructional design and pedagogy of adult learning. This, in turn, will facilitate the personalisation of the learning processes. In 2030, technology is expected to adapt learning activities to personal needs, making the ‘ongoing’ redesign of the learning process possible and facilitating self-directed learning through technological resources. Finally, in 2030 ‘fluidity’ will be common in education. Fluidity is understood as a metaphor for the ability to move between educational contexts; for example, see Bauman (2000) for a general understanding of the metaphor and Falconer et al. (2013) for a concrete specific application to open education. This means that learners will be able to move easily from one educational setting to another, thus combining educational opportunities in a way that best fits their preferences and needs. In order to better exploit this fluidity, in 2030 multiple mechanisms of assessment, recognition and certification will coexist. Open Learning 175 Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Different scenarios for open adult learning There are two key challenges that emerge from current trends and envisaged future opportunities: (1) Challenge 1: guidance and inclusiveness. Learning opportunities that emerge in a completely unstructured learning context, where the learner decides on the learning context, require autonomous and self-directed learning strategies. Regardless of the abundance of open resources and networks available on the Internet, not everyone is able or motivated to use them. It is important for adult learners especially, who have previously been disengaged from learning, that externally set learning pathways continue to exist in the future, which will offer the support and guidance that is needed for these learners to benefit from the increasing scope and variety of learning and training opportunities. (2) Challenge 2: learning goals and recognition. The second challenge for open learning is shaped by the learning goals and their perceived value. Some learners are free and able to decide on their own learning goals; for instance, out of personal interests. Others might embark on learning to meet labourmarket needs and might require certification. In this case, there is a need to demonstrate the achievement of certain socially recognised and externally set goals. Currently, different ways for obtaining this kind of recognition are being experimented with. Some of these – such as peer recognition, peer endorsement, open badges – respond to increasingly informal learning practices. However, they are still very new and it is not clear whether they are going to become officially valued forms of recognition. Open adult learning has to offer transparent and recognised mechanisms that allow the acquired skills to be documented. These two challenges structure the emerging scenarios by providing the key tensions that form the x and y axes for the scenario development (Figure 1):  The ‘Learning for Life’ scenario faces up to the two challenges, inclusion and recognition, mentioned above. In the ‘Learning for Life’ scenario, the learning process is driven by the learner’s motivation to understand and learn. The learner freely picks, evaluates and mixes learning resources as she/he sees fit. Since the focus of the learning process is understanding and gaining knowledge of a topic that deeply concerns the learner (such as a disease she/he or a relative has, or a concrete problem she/he needs to solve), there is, at least initially, no need for the learning gains to become recognised and presumably no need for guidance.  The ‘Learning Café’ scenario responds to the need for guidance. In this scenario the learning process is driven by the learner’s motivation to understand (and no direct need for recognition or certification) but the learner chooses to seek more structure, help and guidance to orient himself/herself in an abundant learning universe. Thus, learners rely more heavily on communities and groups or on trusted gateways to knowledge to orient themselves in a confusingly rich landscape of information and misinformation. Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 176 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. Figure 1. Four scenarios for open adult learning.  ‘My Learning Certified’ scenario responds to the need for recognition. In this scenario, the learner chooses to learn autonomously, in a self-directed way, but the learning process is driven by the learner’s wish or need to fulfil an externally set curriculum or standard to receive recognition and/or certification for his achievements. Thus there will be a plethora of different learning opportunities and learners will have a high degree of freedom concerning which learning resources to use, when and how. There is also, however, some overall structure that will allow learners to receive recognition for their accomplishments.  The ‘Open Training’ responds to both constraints by describing a learning context in which openness is embedded in a more formally structured learning process. This scenario is a combination of the latter two scenarios, in which the learner chooses to study a certain subject that is linked to an externally set standard (even if this is loosely defined) in a more structured, supportive, collaborative learning environment. This scenario may lead to a certification, but the latter is not necessarily its principal aim. These four scenarios are not exclusive, but complementary, and they sketch out different situations and configurations of open adult learning. As was pointed out repeatedly by the experts consulted, the four scenarios should coexist and learners should be able to move between them as their learning goals and guidance needs change. The scenarios in detail ‘Learning for Life’ With the abundance of technology and OER, in 2030 the possibility of self-directed learning throughout life is higher than ever before. In the maximally open ‘Learning Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Open Learning 177 for Life’ scenario (Figure 1) the learning process is completely learner-led. Learners have full control over their own learning. They identify their learning needs themselves, set their own individual goals, choose and create their own learning ecology through networking, collaboration and knowledge exchange, and assess, generate, adapt, revise and validate resources for learning themselves. This scenario is characterised by abundance and variety – of sources and resources, networks and groups, and experiences and expertise. At the same time, it relies on this abundance and on a culture of sharing and collaboration. The scenario combines individual, self-directed learning with collaborative learning boosted by communities and networks. The need for control over the learning process can potentially lead to social exclusion, as not all individuals have the required competences or necessary motivation for such a learning journey. The ‘Learning for Life’ scenario is especially suited for the acquisition of competences for personal needs, such as for leisure learning, active ageing or active citizenship. Examples comprise a parent who wants to learn more about his/her child’s learning disorder and uses Google search to identify and study relevant information; a person who needs to take up employment in a different European country and wants to learn the future host country’s language though a mix of online tools, courses and communities; a devoted hobby-botanist who sets up his own gardening website with all the links and resources he considers relevant and interesting, combined with tips from his and others’ experience. ‘Learning Café’ While the ‘Learning for Life’ scenario involves peer and expert support as a resource within a learner-driven learning scenario, in the ‘Learning Café’ support and guidance are the key elements supporting the learning process for adult learners who do not have the necessary self-regulated learning skills to successfully exploit the potential of an abundance of resources without any guidance. The ‘Learning Café’ scenario fulfils the needs of people who want to learn, understand or know something out of personal interest or necessity, but who are overwhelmed by the abundance of information available, unsure which information to trust, or unable to identify and retrieve the relevant information they require. These learners need guidance in the sense of a trusted starting point and a filter for their learning endeavour. This starting point could be a local or virtual community; it could be a professional association, a consumer information service, a community centre, a network of friends, or even an organised course or learning activity. Additionally, in 2030 the human aspect will be complemented with automated advice based on personal records and data. In this scenario, the role of the teachers, communities, peers and organised groups as guides and content curators is essential. Since this learning scenario will be particularly relevant for learners with lower social capital and learning-to-learn skills, to minimise the vulnerability of the learner, quality assurance mechanisms should be put in place that generate the necessary trust. Rather than being centrally controlled, these mechanisms could include a combination of criteria set by the learner (such as personal proximity), brand recognition of the resource provider (e.g. consumer associations, broadcasting companies), and social control (e.g. recommendations, opinions of peers) with more formal certification. 178 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Examples for the ‘Learning Café’ scenario include an online community for parents with children who have a learning disorder; a weekly tandem language exchange between Spanish and an English-native speaker in a local café; or a gardening club that organises events, excursions, competitions and expert talks for their members. ‘My Learning Certified’ The above two scenarios are particularly relevant for personal development and fulfilment. In many cases, however, learners need to acquire certain skills to further their future careers and will therefore want to demonstrate, in one way or another, that they have achieved certain, externally defined, learning goals. There will be different ways for obtaining recognition for having achieved these goals. Some of these – such as peer recognition, peer endorsement, open badges, and so forth – will respond to increasingly informal learning practices and will allow learners who initially followed the ‘Learning for Life’ or ‘Learning Café’ scenarios to convert their autonomously acquired expertise into recognised qualifications. For example, the parent initially interested in finding out more about the his/her child’s learning disorder could eventually build up enough expertise in the area to become a counsellor or even a therapist for other children and parents with similar problems. However, if from the outset the main learning goal is to obtain a certain qualification or a specific degree or certificate, ‘Learning for Life’ may not be the most efficient or effective way of learning. A course (such as a MOOC), structured in a meaningful way in view of the specific learning goal, or a self-selected combination of different resources, including self-assessment, quizzes, games, apps, collaborative work in virtual and face-to-face learning groups, are examples of open learning strategies that are more suitable for self-guided learners in such a case. Thus, the ‘My Learning Certified’ scenario envisages the case in which learners are comfortable in organising their own learning towards a clearly defined learning goal with the help of resources that prepare them in a targeted way to reach this goal. For this scenario, the quality of the educational resources available for achieving a given goal is of utmost importance. The paradigm example for this learning scenario consists of MOOCs and other open courses or resources, which allow learners to acquire a given set of competences in a targeted, but flexible way. While (most) MOOCs are not yet fully recognised, it is to be expected that in the near future accreditation mechanisms will be developed to increase the viability of this learning model. Other examples relevant for this scenario include cases in which learners use OER and/or other relevant resources to prepare themselves for university entrance examinations or board examinations conducted by professional associations. In the future, the use of these resources will also serve to extend the ‘Learning for Life’ and ‘Learning Café’ scenarios, allowing learners who can provide evidence of relevant informally acquired skills (such as the interested parent) to upgrade to a fully recognised qualification by complementing their expertise and experience with miscellaneous skills and licences that may be required to set up a business or become a recognised professional. Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Open Learning 179 ‘Open Training’ The ‘Open Training’ scenario can be considered a combination of the previous two scenarios. It is suitable for people who, for whatever reason (e.g. lack of resources or social capital, lack of learning to learn skills), are not able or willing to organise their learning process by themselves and may lead to receive certification of the acquired competences. Under this scenario there will be a wide range of learning resources and opportunities, which are packaged and aggregated for the learners’ easier use. Guidance and personal support will be offered to help learners reach their goals and keep them engaged in the learning process. Jointly, the two main characteristics of this scenario – an externally set learning context together with externally set learning goals – make it very similar to the traditional learning and training settings as we know them today. However, in this scenario all other aspects remain as ‘open’ as possible. Learners will have access to a wide range of sources and resources that are adapted to fit their individual learning needs as concerns time, pace, place and pedagogical approach. Scenario examples include a hairdresser who has been developing an allergy to chemicals and wanted to re-qualify as bank assistant by taking a blended learning course, which combines games, video lectures, collaborative assignments and paced tutorials. Similarly, the parent interested in learning disorders could enrol at a vocational training centre, which would provide accreditation for his/her already acquired competences and compile a set of targeted courses, interventions and activities to prepare him/her to qualify as a child therapist. From present to future: a roadmap for moving towards open adult learning There are important differences between the current situation and the visions of open adult learning presented above. In order to achieve these visions by 2030, public institutions need to consider a framework where the four scenarios of open adult learning can coexist, allowing the learners the choice and the fluidity of movement between them. To achieve this goal, some specific measures are necessary. In this section, we present six measures discussed in the workshop grouped by topic: inclusion, production, quality assurance, pedagogy, certification and economics. Some of these measures have been included in the new EU Communication on ‘Opening up Education’ (European Commission, 2013b); this section, therefore, will focus only on those measures specifically directed towards adult learning, or proposed measures that are not explicitly included in the initiative. Inclusion: guaranteeing the participation of all individuals in open adult learning In an ideal world, all individuals would be able to participate in and take advantage of open adult learning. Today, however, this is not the case. During the workshop, experts identified the main challenges to guaranteeing inclusion. The experts’ recommendations coincide with the measures in ‘Opening up Education’ (European Commission, 2013b), which aims to close the digital divide and improve digital skills (especially of the disadvantaged groups). Additionally, they proposed the following: Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 180 J. Castaño Muñoz et al.  Overcoming the localisation and language barriers to access to the resources. In the short term, the production of multilingual resources should be fostered. In the medium–long term, greater development of automatic translation technologies, including new technology that allows a real multi-language synchronic communication, is seen as the ideal solution. Automatic translation, however, runs the risk of ignoring the localisation of the contents, which is more than a mere translation of the text.  Encouraging individuals to take control of their own learning. In order to achieve this goal, learners need more advice and guidance. Some examples in the short term are: the development of a European course on how to take advantage of open education; the development of a platform for identifying relevant learning communities and resources; and the implementation of guidance systems especially focused on the disadvantaged individuals and jobrelated skills. In the medium term, it is necessary to define and mainstream ‘Open Education Competences’ in compulsory education to empower learners to take control of their learning, which encompasses self-directed learning skills, digital competence, and the ability to make choices and be motivated to benefit from open education. Finally in the long term, it is necessary to allow learners to move between different learning settings, including the transfer of students between formal, non-formal and informal settings, and ideally eliminating all economic barriers, guarantying free worldwide post-secondary education. Production: guaranteeing the availability of open educational resources and practices for lifelong learning A common assumption in the vision and in all of the scenarios is that there will be an abundance of educational resources. The lack of specific OER for adult learning has been noted as a trend when analysing the current situation, but to achieve real open adult learning, it is necessary to organise and foster the production of OER. During the workshop, most of the experts agreed on stimulating the decentralised production of resources (as in European Commission, 2013b), and making available research and educational materials paid for by taxpayers. They also agreed on the importance of indexing, classifying and improving the searchability of the OER (e.g. Open Education Europa portal4). However, the experts highlighted the need to extend these measures to open educational practices (as defined by ICDE, n.d), and also to include specific practices for adult learners:  Supporting the production of open education adapted for adult learners. The production of OER and implementation of open educational practices that take into account the needs of adult learners (e.g. flexibility, self-study, job skills) has to be promoted. This would increase the number of resources available in order to overcome the teacher-directed paradigm of formal education and facilitate the likelihood of the ‘Learning for Life’ and ‘My Learning Certified’ scenarios. Open Learning 181 Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Guaranteeing the quality of open education Owing to the social and decentralised aspect of open adult learning – and in some of the scenarios, the ability to self-direct the learning process – any central public intervention on the quality of open adult learning becomes difficult to achieve, and may not be desirable. However, the workshop participants highlighted the following actions as complementary to the proposals included in opening up education (European Commission, 2013b), which aimed to benchmark the digital state of educational institutions and implement awards for the good pedagogical use of ICT:  Identifying trusted providers. In the short term, an agreed minimum set of quality criteria could be defined at European Union and/or national level, which would help to signal who are the ‘trusted providers’ of open adult learning. Additionally, on the basis of these criteria, the European Union could promote a repository of trusted providers (identifying the existing) with a search facility.  Assessing the quality of the learning communities and practices. In the medium term, it is necessary to overcome the ‘resource’ approximation of quality mechanisms and to develop a framework to describe the quality of the communities of learning and the information that they provide and open educational practices.  Fostering a combination of quality assurance mechanisms, including social mechanisms. In the long term, the ideal is to have a combination of all possible quality assurance mechanisms working. The top-down mechanisms described above need to be mixed with social quality mechanisms such as social rating and opinions in order to avoid disappointing learners and to stop adult learners from shunning open education. Pedagogy: opening up educational practice The vision of the teacher as a mere knowledge transmitter can be overcome even in the more structured scenarios. It is clear that future is envisioned where the presence of open educational practices dominate (for more information on how to mainstream open educational practices, see Camilleri & Ehlers, 2011). That means that individuals will take control of their own learning, through a greater degree of flexibility and personalisation in the learning process that will include social and collaborative aspects. However, as at least two of the scenarios show, some students will need or prefer human guidance. There is thus still room for the teacher, but he/she will play a different role from today. One of the main recommendations to make pedagogy more open, which coincides with the ‘Opening up Education’ mission (European Commission, 2013b), is to foster innovative practices for personalised and adaptive learning using the power of the data and learning analytics. Additionally, the experts proposed the following measures:  Moving from reuse to remix and repurposing. In 2013, OER are often (re)used as they are designed. However in the short term, in order to open up educational practices, it is necessary to foster the flexibility and adaptability of OER and exploit their remix and repurposing potential.  Fostering the communities of learners. In order to introduce a higher social meaning in the adult learning processes, the communities of learners have to 182 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 be better exploited. To this end, initial measures to encourage social learning processes during compulsory education through peer-to-peer interactions and the use of social media are highly valued. Additionally, the inclusion of social aspects and activities in OER (e.g. in open e-textbooks) and virtual courses is also recommended.  Making the learning fluid. The acquisition of skills during life is a flexible process. Therefore, open adult learning has to overcome current constraints, by eliminating the barriers that restrict movement between learning contexts and by allowing the transition between the formal and informal education of the learners. Certification: recognising the value of adult learning To match the needs of the society with the skills of adult learners better, it is necessary to recognise the competences acquired through open adult learning. The aspect of recognition is present in two of the presented scenarios. As envisaged by ‘Opening up Education’ (European Commission, 2013b), the final goal is that all competences gained can be assessed. But some specific actions are needed in order to foster the potential value of the competences acquired through adult learning. To this end, the following measures were suggested during the expert workshop:  Improving the social and institutional perception of the value of open adult learning. Changing mind-sets and recognising that learning outside formal contexts is important is a key issue in achieving full implementation of open adult learning. Improving social awareness about this type of education in the adult learning sector will be crucial. Similarly, to support competence-based assessment, the importance of prior learning recognition mechanisms must be increased and formal certification must be combined with informal ways of recognition. This could help increase the perceived value of open education.  Fostering the coexistence of informal ways of recognition. In the long term, a variety of ways of certification should be available, allowing a mix of more formal certifications with more informal ones. This will be especially useful as regards competences that are not recognised in frameworks or official curricula. Micro-credentials, badges and social certification could be useful tools. Additionally, the personal trusted portfolios where individuals can store and manage their own ‘demonstrators’ of competences have to be supported and mainstreamed. If this is done, the monopoly held by the public sector in certification will become more flexible and open. Sustaining the open adult learning system Finally, to complete the vision, the open adult learning system must be made sustainable. To this end, ‘Opening up Education’ (European Commission, 2013b) proposes exploring (and implementing) new business models. This will reduce the weight of public money in the provision of open education and make the initiatives more sustainable. The following specific measures to open adult learning were proposed during the expert workshop: Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Open Learning 183  Exploring and implementing new revenue models adapted to open adult learning. Taking into account the strong link between adult learning and the labour market, co-financing by the public and private sectors that takes advantage of human capital acquired though open adult learning (e.g. enterprises), or charges for extra-services such as linking the learners to the labour market are considered possible options.  Stimulating the demand for OER. Another necessary step towards making the open adult learning system sustainable is ensuring that it is useful and used. In this light, all measures linked to stimulating the demand for open education and OER are highly recommended by the expert group. A concrete proposal, for example, is to link the public funds to the learners and not to the content or offer, in order to guarantee the most adequate and demanded resources and courses. Additionally, any related measure that augments social recognition of open adult learning is also expected to increase demand. Conclusions This paper presented the results from a foresight activity that aimed to contribute to an understanding of how ‘Opening up Education’ can improve and enhance education and training in Europe in the future, through the development of scenarios and a roadmap for action. The focus of this paper was on adult learning. Two main challenges are emerging that may shape the future of adult learning: the degree of learner’s control over their learning goals – linked to the need for recognition and certification, and the learning context – linked to its implications for social exclusion. These two axes have led us to develop four scenarios: ‘Learning for Life’, ‘Learning Café’, ‘Open Training’ and ‘My Learning Certified’. There is general agreement that adult learning by 2030 will be able to take advantage of an abundance of learning materials including OER, produced in multiple and collaborative ways, offered by many different providers and players, and used/reused by learners, enabling strong personalisation of the learning processes. Fluidity will be the key to allowing learners to move easily from one educational setting to another without impediments, according to their own interests and needs of the moment. This vision is not necessarily new but is becoming more likely as we move towards a digital networked society. It is important to highlight that the four scenarios are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary, they highlight different versions of openness that need to coexist, allowing the learners choices and the fluidity of movement between them, according to their needs, abilities and socio-economic requirements. Policy-makers and stakeholders need to develop an educational framework where different options coexist for the benefit of all learners. Some of the recent actions proposed by the European Commission’s ‘Opening up Education’ already go in that direction, but more specific actions for adult learners will be needed in the future. Dedicated efforts are needed to avoid the risk of maintaining or even reinforcing inequality and social exclusion, which could occur if the open scenario that benefits the privileged is only realised. Therefore, all learners should be empowered with ‘Open Education Competences’ that encompass self-directed learning skills, digital competence, and the ability to make choices and be motivated to benefit from open education. 184 J. Castaño Muñoz et al. Notes 1. The views expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. 2. Vision papers: Retrieved December 18, 2012, from http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/openeducation2030/. 3. ‘Glocalization’ in this context refers to the global educational services that are adapted to local needs and requirements. 4. Retrieved December 18, 2012, from http://www.openeducationeuropa.eu/en. Downloaded by [Inst Prospect Tech Studies] at 06:22 11 March 2014 Notes on contributors Jonatan Castaño Muñoz has been working at the Information Society Unit of the European Commission’s JRC-IPTS in Seville since November 2012. He is currently involved in the Open Educational Resources in Europe (OEREU) project, which analyses current trends and future opportunities for Open Education in Europe. Before joining IPTS, he participated in various research projects on the use of ICT in education, with a focus on Higher Education. His research interests include: Open Education, Open Educational Resources and the economics of online education, e-learning, the digital divide and the link between ICT, process innovation and educational outputs. Christine Redecker has been working at the European Commission Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) since 2008. During this time she was responsible for several research lines in the area of ICT and learning, including a project on Learning 2.0 (2008–2010) and a study on the Future of Learning (2009–2011). She is currently leading IPTS research on OER in Europe, focusing on a foresight study on Open Education 2030. She is a qualified Secondary School teacher and holds a PhD in Philosophy. Before joining IPTS, she worked several years in education, as school teacher, teacher trainer and university lecturer. Riina Vuorikari has actively worked in the field of education since 2000. Her main interest is dealing with issues related to the adoption of new technologies in education. Currently, she is a fellowship grant holder in JRC-IPTS within Information Society Unit. She holds degrees in education (M.Ed), in hypermedia (DEA) and her PhD is from the Dutch research school for Information and Knowledge Systems. Yves Punie is Senior Scientist at the European Commission Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) based in Seville. Currently, he is leading the IPTS research and policy activities on ICT for Learning and Inclusion. Before joining the IPTS in 2001, he was interim assistant professor at the Free University of Brussels (VUB) and senior researcher at SMIT (Studies on Media, Information and Telecommunications). He holds a PhD in Social Sciences from the VUB on the use and acceptance of ICT in everyday life also coined as ‘domestication’. He is a regular speaker at conferences and publishes extensively on these issues, and in particular, during the last years, on the use and potential of ICT (including OER) for innovating and modernising education and training, as well as addressing digital competence and twenty-first century skills. References Ala-Mutka, K., Malanowski, N., Punie, Y., & Cabrera, M. (2008). Active ageing and the potential of ICT for learning. 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