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Logistics Sector Update | March 2015 Harshad Borawake ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5432 Transformational times! March 2015 2 Logistics | Transformational times! Index Transformational times! | Growth enablers visible; opportunities galore CTOs to get DFC boost; organized player market share to increase Page No. Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 Story in charts………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6-7 Indian Logistics sector poised for accelerated growth……………………………………………………………… 8-17 a. India’s GDP growth is reviving; Logistics industry grows at 1.5-2x GDP growth b. Infrastructural bottlenecks being addressed (not just growth; efficiency too) i. Ports and evacuation infrastructure ii.Dedicated rail freight corridors iii. Toll / octroi / inter-state tax mechanisms through GST c. Rapid growth of e-commerce d. Other initiatives like 'Make in India' Opportunities across the spectrum…………………………………………………………………………………………… 18-35 a. Logistics encompasses a wide array of services i. Transportation – Air, Surface (Rail, Road), Internal Waterways, Sea ii. Storage – Warehousing, Logistics Parks, ICDs, Cold Chains iii. Distribution – Courier Service, E-tail Deliveries iv. Integrated/Allied Services – Freight Forwarding, 3PL b. Opportunities galore; we attempt to identify some i. Increasing containerization, EXIM growth, DFCs - Container train operators, ports to benefit ii. GST, E-commerce, increasing onrganized sector share - Providers of supply chain management/3PL, cold chains to benenfit Companies covered and our key stock picks……………………...….……………………………………………………… 36-38 Company section……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 39-105 Container Train Operators 1. Container Corporation 40 2. Gateway Distriparks 54 Multimodal Logistics Service Providers 3. Blue Dart 68 4. Gati 74 5. Allcargo Logistics 87 6. Transport Corporation of India 92 Unlisted Players 7. Ocean Sparkle 97 8. JM Baxi & Co. 98 9. Continental Warehousing 99 10. Star Agri Logistics 100 11. Shree Shubham Logistics 101 12.TVS Logistics 102 13. Safex 103 14. Mahindra Logistics Ltd 104 15. SSN Logistics Pvt. Ltd.(Delhivery) 105 Annexure 1: Dedicted Freight Corridor………………………………….……………………………………………………………………………………… 106 Annexure 2: Delhi – Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)………………………………………………………………………………………………. 111 Annexure 3: Indian Railways Financial and Operational Summary…………………………………………….………………………………….. 112 Annexure 4: Key global and domestic logistics trade statistics………………………………………..……………………………………………. 114 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. March 2015 3 Logistics | Transformational times! March 2015 4 Logistics | Transformational times! Growth enablers visible; opportunities galore CTOs to get DFC boost; organized player market share to increase n India’s Logistics sector is poised for accelerated growth, led by GDP revival, infrastructure ramp-up (railways/roads/ports), e-commerce penetration, impending GST implementation, and other initiatives like “Make in India”. n We see opportunities across the spectrum – transportation, storage, distribution, and integrated/allied services. With dedicated rail freight corridors, container train operators (CTOs) should receive a boost. GST implementation and e-commerce promises to alter the landscape for warehousing and 3PL services. n We initiate coverage on Container Corporation (CCRI IN; target price INR1,777, 17% upside, Buy) and Gateway Distriparks (GDPL IN; target price INR535, 30% upside, Buy) — key beneficiaries of dedicated rail freight corridors and economic revival, with a Buy rating. We also cover Blue Dart, Gati, Allcargo Logistics and TCI (Not Rated), that further benefit from GST and e-commerce. Poised for accelerated growth led by multiple drivers n Growth of the Logistics business is directly correlated with economic activity. Empirical evidence suggests that the Indian Logistics industry grows at 1.5-2x the GDP. n With the Indian economy on a revival path, we believe India’s Logistics sector is poised for accelerated growth. Infrastructural bottlenecks that have stifled growth of the sector and have promoted inefficiency are being addressed. n Building of the dedicated rail freight corridors, for instance, will help promote more efficient haulage of containerized cargo by rail. Logistics requirement for e-commerce will grow as exponentially as e-commerce. Opportunities across the spectrum n We see opportunities across the logistics spectrum – transportation, storage, distribution, and integrated/allied services. n While economic growth itself presents a case for improved business prospects, there are multiple developments and trends for logistics enterprises to ride on. For CTOs, (a) Increasing containerization, (b) EXIM growth, and (c) dedicated rail freight corridors are key volume growth triggers. n Implementation of GST will be a game-changing event for businesses in general and organized logistics players. It would provide a boost to warehousing, supply chain management and 3PL business. n Specialized needs of the burgeoning e-commerce and cold chain industry will spawn a range of opportunities for niche organized logistics players. Companies covered and our key stock picks n In this report, we initiate coverage on two large CTOs – Container Corporation and Gateway Distriparks with a Buy rating. While sharp ad-hoc haulage charge increase is a concern, we expect 12-15% CTO volume ramp-up, with CCRI continuing with its leading market share and GDPL benefiting due to its low base. Logistics March 2015 5 Logistics | Transformational times! n Among the other listed entities we have profiled are express cargo/3PL operators like Blue Dart, Gati, TCI and multi-modal operator Allcargo Logistics. n In the unlisted space, we include (1) port service providers JM Baxi & Co, and Ocean Sparkle, (2) CFS players Continental Warehousing, Star Agri Logistics and Shree Shubham Logistics; (3) auto logistics players TVS Logistics and Mahindra Logistics; (4) express/3PL player Safexpress and (5) e-tail logistics player Delhivery. Exhibit 1: Summary of business presence of key logistics players Transportation Storage Valued Added Logistic Services Company Road Air Rail Water Warehousing CFS/ICD Cold Chain Bulk Liquid Express Cargo Supply Chain/3PL Multimodal Port Handling Concor þ þ þ Gateway Distriparks þ þ TCI þ þ þ þ þ þ þ Blue Dart þ þ þ þ Gati þ þ þ þ þ Allcargo þ Aegis Logistics þ Snowman Logistics þ TVS Logistics Services þ þ Safexpress Pvt. Ltd þ þ Mahindra Logistics þ þ Delhivery þ þ Continental Warehousing þ Star AgriWarehousing þ Shree Shubham Logistics þ Ocean Sparkle þ J.M. Baxi þ Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 2: Business-wise revenue share of listed logistic players Source: Company, MOSL - - 5 - 85 - 76.0 56 - - - - 6.3 29 - - - - - - 70 90 6 57 3.2 - - - - 36 - - 4 10 - - - 15 3 - - 5 14.5 0 18 - 8 2 Concor Gateway Gati Blue Dart AllCargo TCI MTO Rail CFS Express Road E-Commerce Seaways / Cold Chain Other March 2015 6 Logistics | Transformational times! Story in charts Exhibit 3: Logistics sector grows at 1.5-2x* of GDP growth rate * 2 year average growth; Listed companies include Concor, Gateway, AllCargo, TCI, Blue Dart, Sical and Gati Source: CMIE, Industry, MOSL Exhibit 4: Road transportation, despite being inefficient mode has highest goods traffic share in India Source: KPMG Exhibit 5: Underinvestment in railways increased road sector (relatively inefficient transport mode) share to 60% v/s 30- 46% share in other regions in India’s freight transport Source: KPMG, MOSL Exhibit 6: Expect transport mode imbalance situation to improve with GST implementation and expected capex on transport infrastructure (USD b) Source: NTDPC, MOSL Exhibit 7: GST reform to boost warehousing demand, expect 9% CAGR, implying addition of 520million square feet *Covered and uncovered portion of ICD/CFS considered Source: Knight Frank, MOSL Exhibit 8: Expect India’s major port container volume to be 2x by FY20 led by EXIM growth and increased containerization Source: IPA, Industry, MOSL 24.4 15.5 9.2 11.3 18.6 12.8 8.2 9.1 9.0 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.4 6.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Logistic Companies* sales growth (% YoY) GDP Growth (% YoY) -10 2 14 26 38 0 3 6 9 12 FY92 FY97 FY02 FY07 FY12 FY17E GDP (% YoY) Exports (% YoY) - RHS Imports (% YoY) - RHS 31% 23% 48% 10% 60% 30% 37% 46% 8% 46% 14% 43% 1% 1% 1% 1% India China US Europe Rail Road Water Air 29 77 155 252 385 76 126 183 252 385 69 116 183 273 417 173 319 522 778 1,186 2007-12 2012-17 2017-22 2022-27 2027-32 Rail Road Other Transport investment 631 939 76 115 211 386 918 1,440 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Million Manufacturing Consumption Exim* Total square feet 13.6 14 8 16 6 8 10 12 14 16 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16E FY18E FY20E Million 10% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR TEUs March 2015 7 Logistics | Transformational times! Story in charts Exhibit 9: E-commerce market growth pegged at 25-30% CAGR over the next few years Source: Industry, MOSL Exhibit 10: Organized player share in cold chain logistics estimated to grow at >20% CAGR through 2017 (INRb) Source: MOSL Exhibit 11: Business-wise revenue share of listed logistic players Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 12: Expect Concor to maintain largest market share in Rail Container movement in India (%) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 13: Gateway’s RoE’s to improve, however long gestation investment to keep Concor’s RoE subdued Source: Company, MOSL 13 60 70 125 Current Size (IAMAI) CY20 (Flipkart) CY20 (Google India) CY25 (Zinnov) Projected E-Commerce market size (USDb) 11 28 140 220 2012 2017 Organized Unorganized - - 5 - 85 - 76.0 56 - - - - 6.3 29 - - - - - - 70 90 6 57 3.2 - - - - 36 - - 4 10 - - - 15 3 - - 5 14.5 0 18 - 8 2 Concor Gateway Gati Blue Dart AllCargo TCI MTO Rail CFS Express Road E-Commerce Seaways / Cold Chain Other 95 94 85 78 75 76 77 79 83 82 80 1 2 3 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 8 4 5 12 17 20 18 15 14 9 9 12 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY13 FY15E FY17E Concor Gateway Others 0 10 20 30 40 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY13 FY15E FY17E RoE (%) Concor Gateway Distriparks March 2015 8 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 14: Global peer comparison Company Country M Cap EPS P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) USD M FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E Concor India 4,631 49.2 62.2 70.6 30.3 23.9 21.1 20.1 15.7 13.7 13.3 15.2 15.5 Gateway Distriparks India 711 16.9 19.2 23.7 24.3 21.3 17.3 14.1 12.5 10.4 15.7 16.9 19.6 Gati India 339 4.9 6.7 9.9 52.0 37.7 25.6 17.7 13.5 9.9 7.6 10.1 13.1 Blue Dart India 2,679 67.9 85.5 103.9 103.8 82.5 67.9 74.4 57.0 47.6 22.2 26.8 26.8 Allcargo India 672 16.8 23.6 28.2 19.8 14.1 11.8 9.4 8.2 7.6 10.7 13.3 14.3 Transport Corp India 320 11.6 15.0 18.9 22.8 17.6 14.0 11.4 9.3 7.8 22.1 23.4 24.8 Median 27.3 22.6 19.2 15.9 13.0 10.1 14.5 16.0 17.5 Average 42.2 32.9 26.3 24.5 19.4 16.2 15.3 17.6 19.0 Rail Transportation Service Providers Union Pacific Corp US 102,626 6.6 7.5 8.4 17.7 15.5 13.8 9.6 8.7 8.0 26.6 28.5 30.6 Central Japan Railway Japan 37,678 1,369 1,491 1,554 16.2 14.8 14.2 8.9 8.7 8.7 14.4 13.8 12.7 East Japan Railway Japan 32,597 513.5 578.2 601.9 19.5 17.3 16.7 9.0 8.8 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.1 Daqin Railway China 23,914 1.2 1.2 n.a. 8.8 8.5 n.a. 5.8 5.7 n.a. 18.4 17.3 n.a. Kansas City Southern US 12,557 5.4 6.2 7.0 21.0 18.4 16.2 11.8 10.6 9.4 15.2 15.3 15.6 West Japan Railway Japan 10,956 346.4 385.9 409.3 19.8 17.7 16.7 8.1 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.8 8.8 Guangshen Railway China 4,492 0.2 0.2 n.a. 26.4 23.4 n.a. 8.3 7.7 n.a. 4.2 4.2 n.a. All America Latina Logistica Brazil 1,031 0.3 0.5 0.5 16.6 10.2 10.1 3.7 3.2 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.4 Globaltrans Cyprus 906 0.5 0.6 0.8 10.4 7.9 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.1 7.4 8.9 11.8 Median 17.7 15.5 14.2 8.3 7.8 8.0 9.1 9.4 11.8 Average 17.4 14.9 13.5 7.8 7.3 7.1 12.0 12.5 14.0 Large Cap Integrated Logistics Players United Parcel Service US 90,813 5.2 5.7 6.4 19.5 17.5 15.7 10.2 9.5 8.9 128.9 249.0 73.3 Canadian National Railway Canada 54,942 4.2 4.8 5.2 20.2 17.9 16.3 12.4 11.5 10.7 24.3 25.7 25.6 Fedex Corp US 49,067 9.0 11.0 12.7 19.3 15.8 13.6 7.5 6.5 5.9 15.9 18.1 18.2 CSX Corp US 33,362 2.2 2.4 2.7 15.6 13.9 12.5 8.2 7.6 7.0 18.3 19.1 19.6 Norfolk Southern Corp US 33,265 6.8 7.6 8.2 15.8 14.2 13.1 8.6 8.1 7.6 16.4 16.9 17.8 Canadian Pacific Railway Canada 31,090 10.9 12.9 15.4 21.8 18.4 15.4 13.2 11.8 10.7 31.8 38.8 57.4 Kuehne & Nagel Intl Switzerland 17,325 5.5 6.1 6.3 25.8 23.5 22.7 15.4 14.5 14.0 27.7 31.0 32.6 Brambles Ltd Australia 13,602 0.4 0.5 0.5 20.9 19.0 17.3 10.4 9.6 8.9 23.0 22.7 22.6 C.H. Robinson Worldwide US 10,767 3.4 3.8 4.0 21.5 19.5 18.2 13.2 12.2 11.7 46.7 49.5 53.3 Yamato Holdings Co Japan 10,015 97.9 107.2 115.8 28.4 26.0 24.0 9.9 9.5 9.3 7.3 7.6 7.7 Expeditors Intl Wash US 9,139 2.1 2.4 2.6 22.3 20.2 18.5 11.6 10.7 9.9 22.3 24.1 24.8 Hyundai Glovis South Korea 7,682 14,935 17,618 19,167 15.2 12.9 11.9 11.0 9.4 8.6 18.5 18.3 16.8 Old Dominian Freight Line US 6,660 3.6 4.2 4.9 21.2 18.4 15.7 9.9 8.7 7.5 19.2 19.4 19.8 Median 20.9 18.4 15.7 10.4 9.5 8.9 22.3 22.7 22.6 Average 20.6 18.3 16.5 10.9 10.0 9.3 22.6 24.3 26.4 Integrated Logistics Players TNT Express Nv Netherlands 3,275 0.3 0.4 0.4 18.1 15.1 13.8 6.3 5.5 4.7 6.4 8.9 8.9 Oesterreichische Post Ag Austria 3,296 2.4 2.5 2.4 18.8 18.3 19.1 9.3 9.1 9.0 21.8 21.6 20.0 Panalpina Switzerland 3,258 5.0 6.8 8.1 26.9 19.9 16.6 12.9 10.3 8.6 16.7 20.5 24.1 Sinotrans Limited China 3,164 0.3 0.4 n.a. 13.0 11.3 n.a. 8.6 7.8 n.a. 10.6 11.3 n.a. Singapore Post Singapore 3,045 0.1 0.1 0.1 27.2 24.2 21.1 19.6 17.6 16.3 23.7 20.9 20.7 Kamigumi Co Japan 2,646 59.9 62.7 64.3 19.5 18.6 18.2 8.4 8.2 8.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 Sinotrans Air Transport China 2,728 1.0 1.2 n.a. 18.9 16.4 n.a. 22.6 25.0 n.a. 14.6 14.8 n.a. Seino Holdings Co Japan 2,378 65.8 78.3 85.3 21.1 17.7 16.2 6.2 5.7 5.4 3.8 4.4 4.7 Forward Air Corp US 1,613 2.4 2.8 3.3 22.2 18.8 16.2 10.0 8.7 7.7 15.3 14.8 17.7 Hitachi Transport System Japan 1,655 99.6 118.6 130.1 18.0 15.1 13.8 6.8 6.3 6.1 6.5 7.4 7.6 Kintetsu World Express Japan 1,594 250.1 319.8 364.0 21.4 16.8 14.7 9.4 8.1 7.1 8.0 9.8 10.5 Sankyu Inc Japan 1,485 38.0 41.5 43.8 14.5 13.3 12.6 6.8 6.5 6.3 8.5 8.6 8.5 Uti Worldwide Inc US 1,328 -0.3 0.2 0.5 n.a. 53.8 26.7 21.4 10.1 8.2 -8.8 4.3 7.9 Aramex Pjsc UAE 1,327 0.2 0.3 n.a. 13.7 12.5 n.a. 8.5 7.4 n.a. 15.5 17.0 n.a. Mainfreight Ltd New Zealand 1,181 0.9 1.0 1.1 18.4 16.1 14.3 11.4 10.1 9.0 18.4 18.9 19.4 Roadrunner Transportation US 966 1.6 1.9 2.0 15.7 13.7 12.8 9.5 8.5 8.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 Senko Co Ltd Japan 814 57.5 72.2 77.6 12.9 10.3 9.5 9.2 8.3 7.8 10.1 11.5 11.4 Freightways Ltd New Zealand 714 0.3 0.4 0.4 18.7 17.0 15.5 11.7 10.8 10.0 25.1 25.7 26.4 Yusen Logistics Co Ltd Japan 535 50.6 90.5 105.9 30.3 16.9 14.5 6.5 6.1 5.6 3.1 5.8 6.5 Gd Express Carrier Bhd Malaysia 507 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.5 51.7 38.8 41.8 33.4 26.6 26.0 27.5 29.3 Median 18.8 16.8 15.5 9.4 8.4 8.0 10.6 11.4 11.3 Average 31.8 40.1 52.3 22.5 19.9 17.3 12.3 10.7 9.1 12.1 13.5 14.1 * CMP in Local Currency; MOSL estimates for Concor and Gateway Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates on Feb 26, 2015, MOSL March 2015 9 Logistics | Transformational times! Poised for accelerated growth Infra development, demand growth to drive volumes for logistics players n Growth of the Logistics business is directly correlated with economic activity. Empirical evidence suggests that the Indian Logistics industry grows at 1.5-2x the GDP. n With the Indian economy on a revival path, we believe India’s Logistics sector is poised for accelerated growth. Infrastructural bottlenecks that have stifled growth of the sector and have promoted inefficiency are being addressed. n Building of the dedicated rail freight corridors, for instance, will help promote the more efficient haulage of containerized cargo by rail. Logistics requirement for ecommerce will grow as exponentially as e-commerce. India logistics sector growth trending @1.5-2x GDP Growth of the Logistics business is directly correlated with economic activity and empirical evidence suggests that the Logistics industry grows at 1.5-2x the GDP growth of a nation. Indian Logistics is estimated to have grow at a healthy ~15% in the last five years. However, growth in sub-sectors varies, with the lowest being in basic trucking operations and highest in supply chain and e-tailing logistics. In overall goods movement, bulk commodities contribute majorly (60-80%) in volume terms. Logistics movement is guided by the location of manufacturers, consumers and EXIM flow. Growth drivers for Logistics players covered in this report include sectors like Auto Components, Textiles, Organized Retail, Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Cement and E-commerce (emerging). Exhibit 15: India’s export-import volumes grew at 2x of the GDP growth rate in the last decade Source: CMIE, Industry, MOSL Exhibit 16: Listed logistics companies sales growth ahead of India’s GDP growth rate (%) * 2-year average growth; Listed companies include Concor, Gateway, AllCargo, TCI, Blue Dart, Sical and Gati Source: CMIE, Industry, MOSL Domestic economy’s revival to augur well for sector Post the change of government at the Center, the investment cycle appears to be restarting, with increasing confidence at the consumer and investor level. Investments in Manufacturing and Infrastructure, coupled with growth in the sectors mentioned above will have a direct bearing on Logistics sector growth. Some 10 13 14 24 25 26 25 21 13 17 20 20 8 7 8 17 30 35 33 31 26 17 15 19 20 8 6 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 Exports (% YoY) Imports (% YoY) GDP (% YoY) 24.4 15.5 9.2 11.3 18.6 12.8 8.2 9.1 9.0 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.4 6.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Logistic Companies* sales growth (% YoY) GDP Growth (% YoY) India logistics sector growth trending towards 2x GDP as the economy picks up March 2015 10 Logistics | Transformational times! of the enabling initiatives could be to form a National Integrated Logistics policy that will focus and ensure cohesive growth of infrastructure. Our interactions with the industry players indicate that with GDP inching towards 7- 9% range, Logistic sector growth should move towards 20% and beyond. Exhibit 17: India’s EXIM trade shows high correlation to GDP growth; expected GDP revival to boost EXIM trade again Source: CMIE, MOSL Infrastructural bottlenecks stifled growth Logistics by definition is the management of goods flow between the points of origin and consumption to meet customers or corporations’ requirements. Hence, it becomes critical that all components of the value chain should be available at the right time and place, in desired condition and pertinently at right cost to efficiently complete the goods flow chain. Some studies estimate the share of India’s logistics spend in GDP at ~13% (versus 7- 8% in developed countries), implying overall size of USD180-220b (direct costs + wastages led by inefficiencies). While the actual number (% share) could vary to some extent, the comparison with other countries clearly shows the inefficiencies in Indian logistics sector. Exhibit 18: Logistics spend in India at ~13% - one of the highest in the world *Figure share in China as manufacturing contributes to >30% of its GDP v/s ~15% in India Source: Armstrong & Associates, MOSL Infrastructural bottlenecks across modes (rail, road, waterways) have stifled growth of the sector and have promoted inefficiency. Capacity constraints and inefficiencies -10 2 14 26 38 0 3 6 9 12 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E GDP (% YoY) Exports (% YoY) - RHS Imports (% YoY) - RHS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% China India Colombia Peru Mexico Argentina Venezuela Brazil Chile Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Australia Italy Spain France Canada South Korea Taiwan Germany UK US Hong Kong Japan Singapore Netherlands India logistics cost higher at ~13% of GDP due to inefficiencies March 2015 11 Logistics | Transformational times! can be noted from the high transit time in rail as key train routes operate at >110% utilization, thus leading to an average speed of ~25km/hr. Road sector is fraught with inadequate and low quality highway availability, thereby limiting the trucks’ size and impacting economics. Exhibit 19: Comparing India’s logistics efficiency with global averages Logistics Efficiency Indicators India Global Road Transportation Average truck speed (in kmph) 30 – 40 60 –80 (incl. China) Four lane road length (in kms) ~8,000 34,000 (China) National highway length (in kms) ~80,000 1,900,000 Average distance travelled by a truck /day (km) 250-300 600-800 Air Transportation Airport charges (in USD) 471 265 Airport waiting time –Exports (in hours) 50 12 Airport waiting time –Imports (in hours) 182 24 Ports & Sea Transportation Turnaround time at ports (in hours) 84 7 (Hong Kong & Singapore) Annual container handling capacity (TEUs) 10.5m 150m (China) Containers handled per ship, per hour (max) 15 25-30 Throughput density (maximum, TEUs/hectare) 45,000 170,000-220,000 TEUs / hectare Warehousing Average inventory days 33 24 (China) Others 3PL share of logistics 16-18% • US: 57% • Japan: 80% • Europe: 40% Logistics cost as percent of country’s GDP 13% 7-8% (developed countries) Source: KPMG, MOSL Exhibit 20: Comparing India’s logistics dynamics with US and China India China USA GDP composition Industry 18% 47% 20% Agriculture and allied services 17% 10% 1% Services 65% 43% 79% Logistics cost as a % of GDP 13.0% 18% (v/s 21% in 1997) 8.5% (v/s 16% in 1980's) Transportation cost as % of GDP 8% 9% 5% Warehousing cost as % of GDP 4% 6% 3% Other logistics costs as % of GDP 1% 2% 0% Major industries driving the logistics sector Auto components, Textiles, Pharma, Cement and Ecommerce (emerging) Metals, Cement, Textile, Electronics Food and Beverages. Ecommerce Major challenges Inadequate road networks High toll charges High employee costs Losses during transportation Shortage of trained manpower Total containers handled at ports (TEUs) 9.9 m 139.7m 42.9m Containers handled by busiest ports 4.3m TEU (43% share) - JNPT 31.7m. TEU (23% share) - Shanghai 7.9m. TEU (18% share) Los Angeles Road network (m km) 4.8m. 4m. 6.5m. Weight of goods moved annually per km of road 1,173 7,018 1,727 Rail network (km) 64,000 66,239 228,513 Weight of goods moved annually per km. of rail line 14,750 59,331 8,293 Source: Knight Frank, Industry, MOSL March 2015 12 Logistics | Transformational times! Additionally, Indian logistics flow is unbalanced, as major portions of the goods transported are only on select few routes. The freight share is skewed towards western India, which connects the sea ports in Mumbai and Gujarat to the Northern hinterland. Exhibit 21: India’s freight traffic is concentrated on limited routes Source: McKinsey & Company, MOSL Exhibit 22: India has a long way to go in logistics service level versus regional peers Source: Industry, MOSL India has to do a lot of catching up in logistics service levels Logistics industry – development level Philippines Malaysia Taiwan China South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Thailand India Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Developed Emerging Low High n Poor facilities and infrastructure n Low IT penetration n Industry partners limited n Excellent infrastructure n Sophisticated capabilities and technology n Easier to attract quality labour n Supply chain partners n Processes and Infrastructure that support collaboration n Traditional channels n Moderate infrastructure n Medium IT penetration with no integration March 2015 13 Logistics | Transformational times! Key issues constraining the sector We analyze the key issues that have stifled the Indian Logistics sector growth and resulted in inefficiencies, leading to cost increases. Exhibit 23: Key issues constraining the sector Source: KPMG, McKinsey, MOSL Inadequate infrastructure, sub-optimal port scale: Despite being a more economical mode of goods transport, railways in India has lost market share in freight movement to roads in the last few decades due to huge under-investments, leading to capacity constraints. Compared to other countries, India’s rail share in goods transport is 31% versus ~60% in 1980’s and 48% in 1990’s. Indian Railways, uses freight earnings to cross-subsidize the losses in its passenger service operations, thereby resulting in higher tariff for freight operations. Exhibit 24: Rail share (efficient mode) in freight traffic has been overtaken by road (inefficient mode for long distance transit) due to capacity constraints Source: NTDPC, MOSL Exhibit 25: Share of railways in India’s logistics sector is low, roads, despite being inefficient, carry more freight traffic Source: KPMG, MOSL 0 20 40 60 80 100 FY51 FY71 FY81 FY91 FY00 FY05 FY12 Freight traffic share (%) Railway Road 31% 23% 48% 10% 60% 30% 37% 46% 8% 46% 14% 43% 1% 1% 1% 1% India China US Europe Rail Road Water Air Inadequate infrastructure; sub-optimal port scale 1 March 2015 14 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 26: Rail is the preferred mode of transport beyond 500km Source: KPMG, McKinsey, MOSL Exhibit 27: Indian Railways: Freight revenues used to crosssubsidize passenger losses Source: Indian Railways, MOSL Exhibit 28: Indian Railways: Passenger fares significantly lower, freight rates significantly higher thans China and Russia Source: Indian Railways, MOSL Sub-optimal port scale: All major ports in India are facing capacity constraints both on the front-end and back-end, and operations remain highly inefficient. This has led to the strong emergence of minor ports, mainly on the west coast to cater to the increasing traffic growth. Exhibit 29: India’s largest port (JNPT) is at meaningfully lower scale compared to global majors (m TEUs) Several ports listed between Los Angles and JNPT not shown in the exhibit Source: Ministry of Shipping, MOSL 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 Road Rail Waterways Road Preferred Rail Preferred Rail / Waterways Preferred 0 40 80 120 160 200 0 25 50 75 100 125 FY00 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY00 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Passenger Service Freight Service Cost (Paise / km) Revenues (Paise / km) Recovery (%) 1.00 2.70 6.70 1.00 0.58 0.75 India China Russia India China Russia cents/passenger-km cents/tonne-km 36.6 32.6 23.3 22.4 17.7 17.4 15.5 15.3 13.6 13.0 11.6 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.3 8.6 8.0 7.6 6.2 6.2 4.3 Shanghai Singapore Shenzhen Hong Kong Busan Zhoushan/Ningbo Qingdao Guangzhou Dubai Ports Tianjin Rotterdam Port Klang Dalian(PRC) Kaohsiung Hamburg Antwerpen Xiamen Tanjung Pelepas Jakarta Los Angles JNPT* March 2015 15 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 30: Four of the largest Indian container ports operating at ~100% utilization levels Source: IPA, Company, Industy, MOSL Lack of last mile connectivity: Lack of coordination in infrastructure development leads to interconnectivity issues among different modes of transport. This leads to delays and unreliability in services, which increases cost, reduces competitiveness, and discourages investments. Exhibit 31: India has one of the largest road networks in the world, but quality of roads is very poor given the lower share of large national highways Type Length (km) % share National Highways 92,851 2 State Highways 142,687 3 Other Roads 4,649,462 95 Total 4,885,000 100 Source: Ministry of Roads FY14, MOSL Administrative delays: A country’s competitiveness is judged by the ease of doing business, and logistics play a vital role in the same. Despite being a relatively low cost country, logistics cost in India tends to be higher due to administrative delays led by paper work (resulting in huge inventory investments and wastages) and complex tax structure. Exhibit 32: India ranks below the relatively developed countries in logistics performance index Indicator Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Pakistan China Hong Kong Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam Docs for export 6.0 9.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Docs for import 8.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 4.0 10.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 Ability to track 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.5 4.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.2 3.2 Quality of services 2.4 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.1 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 3.0 2.7 Customs efficiency 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.0 2.3 2.5 3.5 4.1 3.0 2.7 Infrastructure 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.7 3.6 4.1 2.2 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.7 Time to enforce a contract* 1,442 1,420 1,318 976 406 360 401 498 425 150 440 400 Time to get electricity * 142 67 132 206 145 41 183 108 46 36 35 115 Time to export* 25.0 16.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 5.0 22.0 17.0 11.0 5.0 14.0 21.0 Time to import* 34.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 24.0 5.0 26.0 23.0 8.0 4.0 13.0 21.0 Logistics performance index 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.1 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.1 3.2 3.0 *Days Source: APL, MOSL Low penetration of new technology in supply chain process is resulting in damage of goods. India has least warehouse capacity with modern facilities, and given the fragmented industry state (large share with unorganized players), investment in IT infrastructure is almost absent at required scale. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 JNPT Mundra Chennai Pipavav V.O. CPT Kolkata Cochin Vizag Haldia Kandla FY14 Volume ('000 TEU) Capacity Utilization (%) - RHS Lack of last mile connectivity 2 Administrative delays 3 Low penetration of new technology 4 March 2015 16 Logistics | Transformational times! Infrastructural bottlenecks being addressed (not just growth; efficiency too) Indian government and private players, having identified the issues, are working on various initiatives on infrastructure as well as policy front. Investment in logistics helps not only support its growing demand but also boosts growth in other upstream and downstream economic activities. Building of the dedicated rail freight corridors, for instance, will help promote the more efficient haulage of containerized cargo by rail. GST implementation will bring in ease of inter-state goods movement across India. There is no e-tail without delivery – delivery at the doorstep is a pre-requisite. Logistics requirement for ecommerce will grow as exponentially as e-commerce. A recent study by the National Transport Development Policy Committee (NTDPC) indicates an annual investment requirement of USD570b by 2032 versus the current level of USD100b. It proposes to increase the investment commitment in railways as a percentage of GDP from the last two-decade average of 0.4% to 0.8% in 2012-17 and further increase it to 1.1/1.2% by 2030. Exhibit 33: Proposed investment in transport infrastructure: Higher allocation for logistics will help railways to increase the share in goods transportation (USD b) Source: NTDPC, Company, MOSL 29 77 155 252 385 76 126 183 252 385 69 116 183 273 417 173 319 522 778 1,186 2007-12 2012-17 2017-22 2022-27 2027-32 USD Billion Rail Road Other Transport investment Rail 16% Road 44% Other 40% Rail 32% Road 32% Other 35% Significant investment required to iron out infrastructural bottlenecks March 2015 17 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 34: Desired scenario of infrastructure in India Source: KPMG, MOSL PIPELINES l Presence of National Pipeline Grid l Pipeline are multi-commodity and multi-user MULTIMODAL FREIGHT CORRIDORS l Dedicated networks of rail and road routes l Provision for high-speed cargo movement with high tonnage capacities ROADS l Provision for last-mile connectivity to terminals l Linkage of national and state highways PORTS l Presence of coastal terminals at 200km intervals l Sufficient capacity to handle domestic cargo ECONOMIC/TRADE ZONES l Free trade warehousing zones l Assembly and light manufacturing services MULTIMODAL LOGISTICS PARKS l Identify zones for multimodal hubs at intersection between rail-road, rail-port and road-air VESSELS l Sufficient number of vessels to handle bulk and container cargo LOGISTICS PARKS IN REMOTE AREAS l Multimodal parks serving inaccessible areas March 2015 18 Logistics | Transformational times! Opportunities across the spectrum Drivers: GST, Containerization, E-Commerce, ‘Make in India’ n We see opportunities across the logistics spectrum – transportation, storage, distribution, and integrated/allied services. n While economic growth itself presents a case for improved business prospects, there are multiple developments and trends for logistics enterprises to ride on. For CTOs, (a) increasing containerization, (b) EXIM growth, and (c) dedicated rail freight corridors are key volume growth triggers. n Implementation of GST will be a game-changing event for businesses in general and organized logistics players. It will provide a boost to warehousing, supply chain management and 3PL business. n Specialized needs of the burgeoning e-commerce and cold chain industry will spawn a range of opportunities for niche organized logistics players. While the logistics activity can be broadly classified into inbound and outbound category, its value chain involves transportation (rail, road, air, waterways), warehousing (CFS, ICD) and value added services. Exhibit 35: Structure of Indian Logistics market Source: Industry A logistics company’s service offerings range from a simple point-to-point transit to complex multimodal logistics that include supply chain and third party logistics management. n Evolution of Logistics in India: Logistics is no more viewed as the cost center but forms a vital part of the product delivery value chain for a company. Changed perception about the industry and value delivered is driving the outsourcing business towards logistics players. n Organized player share still very small: Despite being the oldest industry, it continues to remain largely unorganized primarily due to complex tax structure and lack of world-scale infrastructure. Organized players’ share in certain categories (road transport) is <1%, while higher share is in the complex 2PL categories, where scale and back-end IT infrastructure investments are required. n Margins vary widely in sub-categories: Business dynamics of each sub-category varies widely and so does the margin profile. The margin profile would range from 3-5% in point-to-point transit to 20-30% in supply chain management. Indian Logistics Market Road Freight Express Logistics Container Logistics Liquid Logistics CTO ICD / CFS MTO Multiple sub-sectors offer huge investment opportunities March 2015 19 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 36: Snapshot of Logistics Sector services Source: Industry, MOSL Exhibit 37: Country-wise logistics cost composition – India spends higher amount on inventory and losses (%) Source: KPMG, MOSL Transportation + Warehousing: • Courier (express), e-commerce • Cold chain; Freight forwarding • Packaging; Consulting Services bundled around rail transportation and warehousing: • Dedicated rail container services • Stuffing/de-stuffing • Consolidation • Freight forwarding • Freight consolidation • NVOCC • Customs clearance • Express and courier services • Freight forwarding • Customs clearance • Warehousing related to inland distribution whether inbound or outbound • LTL transshipment centers • Rail-side Container Depots • Inland Container Depots • Multimodal warehouses • Container Freight Stations • Inland Container Depots • Port based warehousing and storage • Air cargo transshipment warehouse near airports1 • Trucking and related services like fleet management, network optimization, route planning etc, • Railway cargo transportation • Container Train Operators • Coastal shipping and inland water transportation • International EXIM shipping • Air cargo and passenger operations on domestic and international routes Road Rail Water Air Transportation Warehousing Value added services Modes Range of services 35 49 50 9 9 25 25 24 15 31 18 10 India China US Transportation Warehosing Inventories Others (incl. Losses) March 2015 20 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 38: Summary of business presence of key logistics players Transportation Storage Valued Added Logistic Services Company Road Air Rail Water Warehousing CFS/ ICD Cold Chain Bulk Liquid Express Cargo Supply Chain/3PL Multimodal Port Handling Concor þ þ þ Gateway Distriparks þ þ TCI þ þ þ þ þ þ þ ` Blue Dart þ þ þ þ Gati þ þ þ þ þ Allcargo þ Aegis Logistics þ Snowman Logistics þ TVS Logistics Services þ þ Safexpress Pvt. Ltd þ þ Mahindra Logistics þ þ Delhivery þ þ Continental Warehousing þ Star AgriWarehousing þ Shree Shubham Logistics þ Ocean Sparkle þ J.M. Baxi þ Source: Company, MOSL While economic growth itself presents a case for improved business prospects, there are multiple developments and trends for logistics enterprises to ride on, namely, increasing containerization, implementation of GST, ‘Make in India’ campaign and burgeoning e-commerce sector. CTOs to benefit from several triggers The key triggers for container train operators’ volume growth would increasing containerization, EXIM growth and dedicated rail freight corridors. Exhibit 39: Key triggers for CTO growth Source: KPMG, McKinsey, MOSL CTO’s will be direct beneficiaries of multiple growth drivers and enabling infrastructure projects Increasing containerization Exim growth Dedicated rail freight corridors March 2015 21 Logistics | Transformational times! 1. Increasing containerization Containerization is a system of inter-modal freight transport using inter-modal containers (also called shipping containers and ISO containers) made of weathering steel. The containers have standardized dimensions measured in terms of twentyfoot equivalent units (TEUs). Containerization – a background Of the total global trade, 90% is through sea, of which ~50% volume is break-bulk (cargo which can be containerized). In India, ~50% of the break-bulk cargo is containerized, as against the global average of 75-80%. Exhibit 40: India containerization level v/s other regions - significant scope to grow India’s containerized volumes *Containerization is calculated as containerized volumes as a % of break-bulk volumes Source: Industry, MOSL Containerization in India began in 1966 and Indian Railways commenced rail operation between Mumbai and Ahmedabad in 1968. However, big jump in container operations was after formation of Container Corporation in 1988. Introduction of containers reduced the goods transfer handling steps from seven to two, thereby significantly reducing chances of damage. Some of the key benefits of containerization are: n Safety of goods with lower risk of transit damage and pilferage n Smoother integration between various modes of transportation (ship, rail and road) n Savings in costs through lower packaging, distribution costs n Ability to track movement Containerization in India Container volume in India is expected to be 2x by 2020, driven by EXIM trade and an increase in containerization from the current 55% to >65% (versus developed countries’ average of 70%). The containerization growth will be driven by: 1. Growth in the typical containerized cargo like electronics, textiles, food products, pharmaceuticals, machinery and paper, and other break-bulk commodities like steel, cement, sugar and rice. 2. Availability of rail transit capacity post DFCs commissioning, expansion in the container handling capacity at ports, CFCs, ICDs and inland waterways. 3. Multi-modal logistics park development. 48% 54% 70% 71% 73% India - FY09 India - Current US Europe China Increasing containerization March 2015 22 Logistics | Transformational times! 4. Rail freight regulator to ensure no ad-hocism in the haulage charge changes. Exhibit 41: Container volumes at major ports could double by FY20 (m TEUs) Source: IPA, Industry, MOSL Exhibit 42: Increasing share of container traffic in India at major ports (%) Source: IPA, Industry, MOSL Exhibit 43: India’s container handling capacity is expected to reach 33mmt by 2020 Source: Marine Container Services, MOSL 13.6 14 8 15.6 6 9 11 14 16 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16E FY18E FY20E 10% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR 33.2 31.2 31.4 32.0 34.1 33.7 17.7 17.9 15.3 10.8 5.2 4.4 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.5 13.3 12.8 12.8 14.1 15.9 18.9 17.6 18.0 20.0 21.4 22.0 20.6 14.8 16.9 17.0 18.1 20.2 19.9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 POL Iron Ore Fertilizer Coal Container Other Cargo March 2015 23 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 44: Estimated destination-wise break-up of container cargo in EXIM trade Source: Drewry, MOSL 2. Exim growth to drive CTO volumes EXIM business accounts for >75% of CTO operators and is also a higher profitability business (higher volume, higher asset turn leading to higher RoCE) compared to domestic cargo movement. n EBIT margins in the EXIM segment are high at 21-25%, compared with 9-12% in the domestic segment. n The key reasons for this divergence are: (1) EXIM segment enjoys higher terminal handling revenue due to customs and clearance, (2) EXIM trade has more balanced up and down loads, leading to lower empties cost, and (3) turnaround time for the domestic segment is high. n The north-western part of India accounts for >60% of EXIM trade, with JNPT alone handling ~42% of the container port traffic. n Traffic handling capacity of major ports has posted a CAGR of 13.4% from 504.7m tons in FY07 to 947m tons in FY12. During this period, most major ports operated at a capacity of over 90%. Exhibit 45: Domestic container volume growth has high correlation to EXIM growth Source: IPA, MOSL -10 0 10 20 30 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 Container Volume growth (%) EXIM volume growth (%) EXIM growth March 2015 24 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 46: Major products exported through containers in India (2013, in % share) Source: UNCOMTRADE database, Drewry Maritime Research, MOSL Exhibit 47: Major products imported through containers in India (2013, in % share) Source: UNCOMTRADE database, Drewry Maritime Research, MOSL Exhibit 48: CTOs operating in India Name Group Rakes Rail Terminals Exim (%) Domestic (%) Locations Other Activities Adani Logistics Adani 6 2 Gurgaon /Kishangarh Ports, Container terminals, CTO, CFS Concor IR# 269 63 82 18 Pan India Multi modal operator CRRS* DPW 7 100 - Ports, Container terminal CWC PSU 1 100 - Warehousing, CFS ETA Star Group Dubai 11 Shipping and port services Gateway Rail Freight GDL 21 4 95 5 Ludhiana / Mumbai / Faridabad CFS, CTO Hind Terminals MSC 14 6 100 - Shipping/ Freight Forwarding India Infra. APL 9 Container shipping, infra SICAL Logistics - 7 - 100 CFS, container terminal Boxtrans (India)** JM Baxi & Co. 12 Container terminal, CFS, TransRail Logistics - 2 - 100 Trucking Arshiya Rail Infra. - 20 1 0 0 Khurja KRIL - 8 2 Fertilizers Inlogistics NOL, Singapore 15 1 Total 401 80 Source: Industry, MOSL Textiles 11% Chemicals 11% Fabric/Yarn 10% Steel Products 9% Reefer food products 8% Others 51% Containerized Exports Electrical & electronic goods 17% Machinery/ spares 16% Chemicals 12% Steel Products 8% Food products 6% Others 41% Containerized Imports March 2015 25 Logistics | Transformational times! Dynamics of CTO business The key success factors for CTOs include (a) port side infrastructure and reach to key trade locations, (b) satisfactory service levels to shipping companies, and (c) multimodal delivery service capabilities. Liberalization of CTO industry in India n The domestic CTO industry was first liberalized in 1988, when Indian Railways carved out its CTO operations, leading to the creation of Container Corporation of India (CCRI). n CCRI was established with the objective of facilitating primarily EXIM container movement and providing other logistics services like one-window customs clearing and ICD/CFS facilities. To execute these services effectively, Indian Railways provided land at strategic locations where trade originates. n In January 2006, private sector companies were permitted to enter the industry to attract a greater share of container traffic for Indian Railways and to introduce competition in rail freight services. Indian Railways remains the sole owner of the rail network and the sole haulage service provider in India. n Since 2006, ~15 new players (13 private and two state-owned) have entered the industry, though only 1-2 players were able to achieve meaningful scale. Exhibit 49: Analyzing the CTO value chain Source: KPMG, MOSL March 2015 26 Logistics | Transformational times! 3. Dedicated rail freight corridors We expect CTOs to benefit significantly from the completion of planned dedicated freight corridors connecting Delhi to Mumbai in West India and Kolkata in East India. Also, DMIC (Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor) will boost integration and development of India’s manufacturing sector and logistics efficiency. Dedicated freight corridor (expected to complete in 2018/2019, given the scale of the project should expect some delays) will improve the four key factors in train operations (a) Double stacking: Containers can be double-stacked on full route, currently available from Gujarat ports (b) Speed: Would increase from current average 25km/hr to >60km/hr (c) Load carrying capacity: Axle load to increase from 25MT to 32.5MT, enhancing track loading capacity from 8.67MT/mtr to 12MT/mtr (d) Length of trains: To increase from current 700 to 1,500m (but unlikely on the full stretch of the corridor) Train frequency between key ports and ICD destination is expected to increase significantly. JNPT to Vadodara train’s frequency could increase from 9 to 49, and Ahmedabad to Marwar train’s frequency could increase from 15 to 72. CTOs would benefit from higher asset utilization, cost savings, and time savings, leading to higher volumes and profitability. Exhibit 50: Indicative map of DFC’s route* *~80% route is parallel to the existing rail track Source: PTI, PMO, MOSL CTO’s to witness quantum jump in operations post DFC Dedicated rail freight corridors March 2015 27 Logistics | Transformational times! Expert Speak: Adesh Sharma, Managing Director; DFCCIL DFC will be game changer for Indian Logistics n Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is being developed under Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL). n It promises to be a ‘game changer’ for improving the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing. DFC plans to run freight trains in India on time tables. n Travel time for goods transportation between Mumbai – Delhi would decline from 60 hours currently to just 18 hours. n In addition, there will be multiplier effects by setting up various Industrial Corridors through the route length. Key highlights of the DFC program n DFC promises to be a ‘game changer’ for improving the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing. The share of Indian Railways in freight traffic has declined to just 36% (v/s ~70% in several other countries) and the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India (DFCC) intends to improve the ratio to 50% over the next few years. n One of the key advantages of DFC is that freight trains in India could be run on time tables similar to passenger trains currently; the frequency can be theoretically increased to one train in 10 minutes. As a result, travel time for goods transportation between Mumbai and Delhi would decline from 60 hours currently to just 18 hours. Setting up of various industrial corridors along the route length would result in a multiplier effect. n Despite being a greenfield network, freight charges in the system will not increase. DFCC’s operating ratio would be just 45% against the Indian Railways’ 98%. Also, DFCC’s maintenance and operational costs would be just 33% of Indian Railways’ current costs primarily driven by ‘Faster-Longer-Heavier’ trains, which would significantly increase operational efficiency. n Post the western and eastern DFCs, four new freight corridors are being planned: Delhi-Chennai (2,173km; USD22b), Mumbai-Kolkata (2,000km; USD21b), Kharagpur-Vijayawada (1,100km; USD12b), Chennai-Goa (890km; USD10b). The surveys have been recently completed and suggest an IRR of 18%+ for several of these networks. Project cost and timelines n The intent is to complete the project by December 2018, and there is strong confidence that deadlines would be met. The western and eastern (till Khurja) DFCs would be completed by December 2018. The Khurja-Ludhiana section would be completed by December 2019. n Total project cost for the western and eastern DFCs is estimated at ~INR820b, of which construction cost (including civil, tracks, electrical, signaling) would be INR560b. Contracts worth INR260b have been awarded (including ~INR90b to L&T consortium, INR50b to GMR consortium, and INR33b to Tata Projects-led consortium). The balance contracts of INR300b are targeted to be awarded by March 2016, which entails a strong pipeline of project awards for equipment suppliers. March 2015 28 Logistics | Transformational times! GST to usher consolidation and growth for organized players Goods and Services Tax (GST) would (i) amalgamate a large number of Central and State taxes into a single tax, (ii) mitigate cascading or double taxation in a major way, and (iii) pave the way for a common national market. From the consumer point of view, the biggest advantage would be in terms of reduction in the overall tax burden on goods, which is currently estimated at 25%-30%. Introduction of GST would also make our products competitive in the domestic and international markets. Studies show that this would instantly spur economic growth. Last but not the least, this tax, because of its transparent character, would be easier to administer. Source: CBEC Implementation of a common nation-wide GST will be a game-changing event for businesses in general. The current indirect tax structure in India (mix of state and central government taxes) is akin to countries within the same country — inter-state goods movement is governed by state level tax structures, whereby operational and logistics efficiency takes a backseat. Manufacturers have to maintain warehouses (cost share in logistics vary between 15-35%) in each state for economical (taxation structure) reasons, leading to wastage of infrastructure, manpower and increasing costs. The proposed GST will result in a unified market across India and manufacturers shifting to the hub and spoke model for goods delivery — goods delivery decision will be driven by logistics and operational efficiencies. Share of organized players, particularly in the road transport segment is very minimal. GST coupled with gradual shift towards higher share of supply chain management business will benefit organized players to increase their market share. Implications of GST n Government and corporate sector to benefit alike: Corporate sector would benefit from simplification of the tax structure, uniformity of treatment across states, much wider applicability of input tax credit, lower compliance cost of litigation due to elimination of multiple categories and resultant disputes over definition (most notably the distinction between goods and services). For the government, both Centre and States, they will benefit from higher tax collection. n Supply chain management to get a boost: Currently, significant amount of time is lost at the numerous check points at the state borders resulting in increase of cost as well as travel time. Apart from taxation, these long lead times to supply goods have also forced manufacturers to keep large number of warehouses. Elimination of checkpoint time will result in manufacturers realigning their distribution strategy to make it more logistically efficient and many will outsource the activity to logistics companies (similar to developed countries) to focus on the core business. n Organized sector to get a boost, partly at the cost of unorganized: In the current tax structure, tax credit is not available for all taxes post manufacturing. GST - The ultimate legislature for domestic logistic service business March 2015 29 Logistics | Transformational times! Availability of tax credit under GST will increase engagement of organized players as the manufacturer and purchaser will get the tax credit benefit. Incentives to stay outside the tax system will reduce, thereby minimizing the economic advantage of unorganized players. GST to promote hub-and-spoke model The warehousing business, in particular will witness significant metamorphosis – from small warehouses spread across the country to large, global-size warehouses concentrated in a few hubs. Industry reports estimate 9% CAGR in warehousing area in India in the next five years to 1,440msf (addition of 520msf). Exhibit 51: GST is expected to reorganize warehousing clusters, giving rise to the hub and spoke model, and lead to higher outsourcing and thereby benefit logistics companies Source: KPMG, MOSL Exhibit 52: Warehousing demand in India expected to grow at 9% CAGR, implying addition of 520msf of addition (msf) *Covered and uncovered portion of ICD/CFS considered Source: Knight Frank, MOSL 631 939 76 115 211 386 918 1,440 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Manufacturing Consumption Exim* Total 8% CAGR 9% CAGR 13% CAGR 9% CAGR March 2015 30 Logistics | Transformational times! E-Commerce has emerged as fastest growing vertical for logistics players E-commerce has emerged as a fast growing segment for logistics players with last mile delivery capability. Given the nascence of e-commerce in India and dominance of cash-on-delivery (COD), many online players set up their own logistics infrastructure. Third-party logistics providers (3PLs) have matured to the delivery mechanisms for e-commerce, and as e-commerce players attune to focusing on their core business, growth in delivering products bought online should be disproportionate for 3PLs. Existing 3PL logistics players like Blue Dart, Gati, DTDC (DotZot), TCI have ramped up their capabilities to serve this segment while several new specialized players like Delhivery, E-Com Express have also come up. Logistics cost in the total e-commerce merchandise value is estimated at ~10%. Exhibit 53: Indian e-commerce market is extremely small as compare with other countries *E-tailing market size is estimated at USD4b Source: Industry, MOSL Exhibit 54: Various industry sources peg extremely high growth rates over the next few years *Google India predicts e-tailing market size at USD45b by CY20 Source: Industry, MOSL Logistics critical for e-commerce success While e-tailing does not require the opening of physical stores to capture consumer demand, it needs an effective website through which customers can access product information and place orders. Once the order is placed, it passes through another set of stakeholders who bring the ordered product to the customer’s doorstep. Most e-tailers view themselves as supply chain and technology integrators who manage a complex web of stakeholders. Given the geographical complexity, suboptimal infrastructure and regulatory variations across the country, logistics in India has always been challenging. It has also been more of a B2B service; the B2C logistics ecosystem (requires customer interaction, cash handling – COD ~60% of all deliveries, and returns handling) is still a new and underdeveloped capability for 3PLs. Up to 90% of goods ordered online in India are moved by air, which pushes up delivery costs by around half, according to several online retailers and logistics 13 260 295 India US China E-Commerce Market Size (USDb) 13 60 70 125 Current Size (IAMAI) CY20 (Flipkart) CY20 (Google India) CY25 (Zinnov) Projected E-Commerce marketsize (USDb) (Please refer to our update on E-Commerce dated November 5, 2014) Click here March 2015 31 Logistics | Transformational times! companies. Road and rail transport networks remain woefully underdeveloped and entangled in graft and bureaucracy. Doing it on their own Some of the more established e-tailers have invested in setting up their own delivery networks, as: [1] this enables them to have a ‘tangible’ customer interaction through which they can get feedback and tailor services accordingly, and [2] most 3PLs are still in the process of developing efficient and comprehensive logistics networks. n Flipkart created a separate brand for its logistics arm in April 2013 and has so far used eKart only for in-house deliveries. In February 2014, it opened eKart Logistics Services for other e-tail ventures too. n Amazon too is pumping up capacities at Amazon Logistics. This is in addition to existing partnerships with 3PLs like GATI, Blue Dart and FedEx Corp. Amazon also started a pilot project with India Post to test the system and use the channel to collect COD payments as well. This could help it reach deep into India's hinterland. India Post has over 150,000 post offices in India, of which 89% are in rural areas. n In 2012, Jabong helped design the process for JaVAS, a logistics solution similar to Amazon fulfillment services so that other e-commerce players can outsource their logistics to Jabong on a contract basis. India has ~21,000 pin codes and most 3PL players are able to reach 8,000-10,000 pin codes at best. India Post, with its formidable network across urban and rural India and its already established mechanism to handle money orders, can harness this opportunity in a big way. As per research by TechnoPak, case studies of the US Postal Service (US) and Deutsche Post (Germany) demonstrate that these organizations have attempted to remain relevant in the changing times by tapping into and benefiting from the growth of e-tailing in their respective countries. Both the organizations are significant in delivering parcels to e-tailing customers. Exhibit 55: Share of revenues from e-commerce is significant for US and German postal services Source: Industry, MOSL 15% 41% 85% 59% US Postal Services, US Deutsche Post , Germany E-Commerce revenue share Other revenues E-tailing growth in Tier2/3 cities open up vast growth opportunity for third party logistics players March 2015 32 Logistics | Transformational times! EXPERT SPEAK: Mr Sanjiv Kathuria, Director & CEO, DotZot Simply put, growth in logistics will be as exponential as e-commerce n Launched in mid-2013, DotZoT is the first pan India delivery network, focused exclusively on the e-commerce/e-retail space. It is backed by DTDC's size, scale and reach, and covers 8,000 plus pin codes and 2,300 cities across India. n DotZot aims to bridge the gap faced in logistics infrastructure by providing superior logistics solutions to e-tailers, who are increasingly looking to enhance customer shopping experience. DotZot ensures constant visibility of shipments and real-time flow of information. It offers superior value and reliability to e-retailers. Massive opportunity There is no e-tail without delivery. Delivery at the doorstep is a pre-requisite. Logistics requirement for e-commerce will grow as exponentially as e-commerce. Sizing the market today: The current market size of e-tail in India is estimated at USD3b. If the average shipment value is of INR2,000, that puts the number of shipments per year at 90m. E-tailers cater to ~50% of the shipment deliveries on their own. 90m annual e-commerce-driven shipments as explained above imply 0.3m deliveries per day only for e-commerce parcels even today. That implies ~0.15m daily shipments of 4.5m annual shipments through 3PLs (assuming 50% is catered to by the platform owners themselves). This pegs the overall cost of delivering the e-commerce parcels at INR8b-9b, out of which the revenue opportunity for 3PLs in e-commerce delivery alone is INR4b-5b. Why growth should surpass growth in e-commerce: Traditionally, documents have comprised 75-80% of the volumes for the courier market in India. E-commerce deliveries are changing this scenario, as every shipment to be delivered in ecommerce is a parcel. 1m+ per day of ~1kg per parcel implies huge tonnage for the market from e-commerce alone. Platform owners like Flipkart and Amazon are likely focusing on the bigger cities, where density is high. However, increasingly the growth opportunity in e-tailing is tilting towards smaller cities and tier-III/IV towns. This implies that the play for even 3PLs is massive. The USD3b market is likely to grow multi-fold, and daily shipments from e-commerce alone should easily reach 1m in a few years. Greater share for 3PLs over time Cost of delivery for e-commerce companies is huge at 8-10%. This is centered on brand-building and giving customers an excellent delivery experience. However, as profitability assumes greater importance, there will be greater propensity to outsource functions like logistics to specialist players. They may not phase it out entirely, given the investments in the platform, but may start pruning their networks. They may restrict themselves to select cities with the highest density. Also, managing day-to-day aspects of the logistics business at higher scale may be a problem – take for example, managing attrition across thousands of delivery boys needed to deliver 1m+ parcels every day. March 2015 33 Logistics | Transformational times! Why separate focus on e-commerce An increasing number of e-tailers are shifting to the marketplace model. Parcels are being picked up from sellers located all over. This requires a different piece of technology and control on the pick-up process. Once the parcel reaches the destination, there is a requirement for a parcel network for residences – earlier only documents got majorly delivered at residences. COD adds to the complexity, making logistics a quasi cash management service. For DotZot, the COD remittance cycle post delivery is down from 15-20 days a year ago to less than 7. Secondly, the return-to-origin percentage is also in double-digits; parcels have to be delivered back to the originating merchants. E-commerce also demands reverse pick-up of exchange and returned shipments in large numbers, and that is also a change that logistics companies have adapted to. DotZot’s advantage lies in pre-established DTDC network that it can use The prerequisite for rolling out any delivery service is setting up a network. It is also the biggest cost and takes several years to have a pan-country network. DotZot comes with an established network and the largest pan-India network outside of India Post, through DTDC. DotZot will ride on that network rather than duplicating the network. This not only makes the business viable right from the beginning it also allows DotZot to offer a country-wide delivery service from day-1. The costs incurred in setting up of shipment network are significant. Also, many of such networks that exist in the smaller cities may end up becoming cost centers, where deliveries of products happen from higher tier cities, and the reverse traffic is virtually non-existent. However, that is not a significant concern for DotZot, given DTDC’s already established network that it can ride on. Cold chain has emerged a niche logistics growth area for organized players India is amongst the least cold chain adoption countries, implying huge potential. Organized players have a huge growth opportunity in this space given the 6-7% share in the cold chain warehousing segment and 15-20% share in temperature controlled transportation. Cold chain logistics also known as temperature controlled logistics (TCL) business includes (a) warehousing services to store at temperatures ranging from -25ºC to +20ºC and distribution through temperature controlled containerized trucks and cargo trains. Existing cold chain warehousing capacity in India is estimated at 30m tonnes and 7-8,000 reefer vehicles, with majority of the facilities in UP (41%) and West Bengal (33%) followed by Punjab (6%), Gujarat and Bihar. 75% of the warehousing capacity is used by potatoes, ~2% for meat/seafood and the rest is for multipurpose products. Cold chain logistics and warehousing is a nascent sector in India and offers huge opportunity for organized players March 2015 34 Logistics | Transformational times! Expect high growth: Indian cold chain logistics industry size is estimated at ~INR150b with an expected growth rate of 15-20% in the medium term to reach ~INR250b by FY18. Key growth enablers include demand growth and aptly aided by government incentives for investments. Some of the key product categories transported through this route include dairy, poultry/meat/seafood, ready-to-eat, chocolates, pharmaceuticals, industrial products, and fruits and vegetables. Key players in the cold chain warehousing business include Snowman Logistics, Dev Bhumi Cold Chain, Fresh &Healthy Enterprise (CONCOR), RK Foodland, Brattle Foods, Brahmanand Himghar, and Gubba Cold Storage, among others. Key players in cold chain transportation include Coldex, Gati Kausar, Kelvin Logistics, Crystal Logistics, Coldstar Logistics, Schedulers Logistics and XPS Cold Chain among others. Exhibit 56: Organized player share in cold chain logistics estimated to grow at >20% CAGR through 2017 (INR b) Source: Industry, MOSL 11 28 140 220 2012 2017 Organized Unorganized March 2015 35 Logistics | Transformational times! ‘Make in India’ initiative to boost manufacturing sector and augurs well for Logistics The Indian government recently launched the “Make in India” campaign to facilitate investment, foster innovation, protect intellectual property and build best-in-class manufacturing infrastructure in India. This campaign aims to make a sea change in the government’s attitude to reposition itself as a true business partner and not as a permit issuing authority. It pervades different sectors and will lead to significant investments and growth in the domestic manufacturing sector. Though it is too early to quantify any benefit, it is imperative that it will give a meaningful boost to the Logistics sector, given the scale of the initiative. Exhibit 57: Rising trade imbalance necessitates the boost for domestic manufacturing (USD b) Source: CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 58: Some of the key exporting sectors from India are growing at a healthy rate *Sectors depicted above contributes ~60% on non-POL commodity exports from India Source: GoI, CMIE, MOSL (540) (360) (180) - 180 360 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 Exports Imports Trade Balance 0 40 80 120 160 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Ready garments: 9% Textiles: 10% Electronics: 16% Transport: 27% Machinery: 19% Engg goods: 19% Pharma: 16% In USDb Sector: Last 10 yr CAGR (Please refer to our update on Make in India dated September 27, 2014) Click here March 2015 36 Logistics | Transformational times! Companies covered and our key stock picks Buy Container Corporation, Gateway Distriparks n In this report, we initiate coverage on two large CTOs – Container Corporation and Gateway Distriparks with a Buy rating. While sharp ad-hoc haulage charge increase is a concern, we expect 12-15% CTO volume ramp-up, with CCRI continuing with its leading market share and GDPL benefiting due to its low base. n Among the other listed entities we have profiled are express cargo/3PL operators like Blue Dart, Gati, TCI and multi-modal operator Allcargo Logistics. n In the unlisted space, we include (1) port service providers JM Baxi & Co, and Ocean Sparkle, (2) CFS players Continental Warehousing, Star Agri Logistics and Shree Shubham Logistics; (3) auto logistics players TVS Logistics and Mahindra Logistics; (4) express/3PL player Safexpress and (5) e-tail logistics player Delhivery. CTO’s well placed to benefit from economic revival, initiate coverage on Gateway Distriparks and Concor Of the total container volume carried by the Indian Railways ~60% flows through western corridor (JNPT/Gujarat to North India). Various industry estimates and implied growth led by likely GDP trajectory indicates doubling of the container volumes by 2019/20. Exhibit 59: Modeling 15% railway container traffic growth through FY20 Source: Company, MOSL March 2015 37 Logistics | Transformational times! Gateway Distriparks (MCap: USD735m, TP: INR535, 30% Upside, Buy) n Gateway Distriparks is the largest private container train operator with end-toend service offerings and also offers exposure to steady profit CFS and high growth cold chain businesses. n Key triggers include economic revival, DFC completion and increasing containerization, while private ownership gives it the nimble footedness to gain market share in rail business. n The stock trades at 17x FY17E EPS of INR24/sh, with an implied dividend yield of ~3%. We initiate coverage with a Buy, based on DCF-based (WACC: 11%, TGR: 4%) fair value of INR526/sh (includes INR45/sh for Snowman, post 20% discount). Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Container Corporation (MCap: USD5b, TP: INR1,777, 19% upside, Buy) n Container Corporation of India Ltd (CCRI) is a leading (76% market share) rail freight transporter and is investing to transform into a multimodal logistic player. n Key triggers include economic revival, DFC completion and early monetization of the MMLP investment. n The stock trades at 22.5x FY17E EPS of INR71 and has a dividend yield of ~1%. n We value CCRI on DCF basis (WACC: 12%, TGR: 4%) at INR1,693. Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Exhibit 60: Summary of Business presence of key logistics players Transportation Storage Valued Added Logistic Services Company Road Air Rail Water Warehousing CFS/ICD Cold Chain Bulk Liquid Express Cargo Supply Chain/3PL Multimodal Port Handling Concor þ þ þ Gateway Distriparks þ þ TCI þ þ þ þ þ þ þ Blue Dart þ þ þ þ Gati þ þ þ þ þ Allcargo þ Aegis Logistics þ Snowman Logistics þ TVS Logistics Services þ þ Safexpress Pvt. Ltd þ þ Mahindra Logistics þ þ Delhivery þ þ Continental Warehousing þ Star AgriWarehousing þ Shree Shubham Logistics þ Ocean Sparkle þ J.M. Baxi þ Source: Company, MOSL Key risks Delay in economic uptick: Our logistics sector growth expectations are driven by the likely revival in the GDP led by initiatives post the government change at the Center. March 2015 38 Logistics | Transformational times! Any delays in the DFC completion, GST Bill approval could elongate the period for our target growth. Specific risks to logistics sub-sectors: Lower than expected GDP growth will impact all the logistics players, while some of the specific risks in the niche segments include (i) CTOs profitability can be impacted by continued imbalance in EXIM volumes leading to higher empties, (ii) slowdown in e-commerce could impact players like Blue Dart and Gati, and (iii) sharp increase in energy costs (electricity, diesel) could impact cold chain players’ profitability. Sharp revision of haulage rates by railways: Historically, railway haulage rates (charge paid by CTOs to Indian railway) change had been ad-hoc. While CTOs have been able to pass it on to consumers, any such sharp increase in future could limit the ability of CTOs to pass on the increase to consumers and impact their profitability. Exhibit 61: Railways has historically increased the haulage share on ad-hoc basis (INR/TEU) INR/TEU Train Haulage Charges (500-550km) Train Haulage Charges (1000 - 1050km) Distance (Kms) Upto 10T >10T and upto 20T > 20T and upto 26T > 26T and upto 30T >30T Empty (single deck) Empty Flat Wagons Upto 10T >10T and upto 20T > 20T and upto 26T > 26T and upto 30T >30T Empty (single deck) Empty Flat Wagons 1-Jul-09 5,874 8,060 8,872 3,819 3,525 10,049 13,965 15,515 6,532 6,030 1-Jan-10 5,968 8,060 8,872 3,880 3,581 10,826 13,965 15,515 7,037 6,496 1-Jan-11 5,984 8,060 8,872 3,890 3,591 11,099 14,280 15,981 7,215 6,660 1-Dec-12 5,569 7,347 8,375 9,325 4,776 4,409 10,158 13,554 15,515 17,329 8,810 8,133 1-Feb-13 5,970 7,877 8,978 9,997 5,120 4,727 10,890 14,530 16,633 18,577 9,445 8,718 1-Apr-13 5,970 7,470 8,978 9,997 4,471 4,127 10,890 13,753 16,633 18,577 8,205 7,574 5-Dec-14 7,500 9,428 11,369 12,678 14,048 5,625 5,250 13,726 17,408 21,112 23,612 26,226 10,295 9,609 15-Dec-14 6,690 8,776 10,572 11,785 12,784 5,241 4,876 12,781 16,190 19,619 21,934 23,866 9,599 8,931 1-Mar-15 7,500 9,428 11,369 12,678 14,048 5,625 5,250 13,726 17,408 21,112 23,612 26,226 10,295 9,609 Growth % Train Haulage Charges (500-550km) Train Haulage Charges (1000 - 1050km) Upto 10T >10T and upto 20T > 20T and upto 26T > 26T and upto 30T >30T Empty (single deck) Empty Flat Wagons Upto 10T >10T and upto 20T > 20T and upto 26T > 26T and upto 30T >30T Empty (single deck) Empty Flat Wagons 1-Jul-09 1-Jan-10 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 8% 0% 0% 8% 8% 1-Jan-11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1-Dec-12 23% 4% 5% 23% 23% 22% 9% 8% 22% 22% 1-Feb-13 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 1-Apr-13 0% -5% 0% 0% -13% -13% 0% -5% 0% 0% -13% -13% 5-Dec-14 26% 26% 27% 27% 26% 27% 26% 27% 27% 27% 25% 27% 15-Dec-14 -11% -7% -7% -7% -9% -7% -7% -7% -7% -7% -7% -9% -7% -7% 1-Mar-15 12% 7% 8% 8% 10% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 7% 8% Source: Indian Railways, MOSL March 2015 39 Logistics | Transformational times! Companies BSE Sensex: 29,449 S&P CNX: 8,938 March 2015 Companies Container Corporation 40 Gateway Distriparks 54 Blue Dart 68 Gati 74 Allcargo Logistics 87 Transport Corp. of India 92 Unlisted players Ocean Sparkle 97 JM Baxi & Co. 98 Continental Warehousing 99 Star Agri Logistics 100 Shree Shubham Logistics 101 TVS Logistics 102 Safex 103 Mahindra Logistics Ltd 104 SSN Logistics (Delhivery) 105 Container Corporation March 2015 40 Market l eader, p re-emptive c apex to be nefit i n l ong term Large option value with likely freight shift from road to rail n Container C orp o f I ndia L td ( CCRI) is a l eading rail f reight t ransporter that i s graduating to be a multimodal logistic player. It is set to benefit from GDP/EXIM revival and DFCs completion that will accelerate containerization. n Despite private players entry in 2006, it has a leading market share (76%) that can be a ttributed t o i ts s cale a nd v antage l ocations. Long t erm g rowth a cceleration could come from its pre-emptive capex on multimodal parks. n We i nitiate coverage with a B uy, with a n DCF based fair value of INR1,777/sh, implying 19% upside. Key beneficiary of DFCs and economic revival n CCRI’s businesses will benefit from (a) DFCs completion and increasing containerization (last 12-year CAGR at 9% v/s 6% in overall EXIM at major ports), (b) India’s expected GDP revival, (c) improving logistics infrastructure and (d) GST implementation. n DFCs (full commissioning likely by 2019) will increase the rail freight capacity and profitability of CTOs through double stacking and lower transit time. n India’s expected GDP revival will translate into higher EXIM trade, while infrastructure improvement and GST implementation will improve the share of organized logistics service providers over the medium term. Dominant player, pre-emptive investments for long term growth n CCRI is an undisputed leader in rail transport (76% market share) led by favorable depot locations (legacy benefit), scale (10x in size of next biggest competitor) led by continuous core business capex focus. n CCRI is spending INR60b to develop 15 MMLPs (Multi Modal Logistics Parks) along with upcoming DFCs, potentially upgrading the company to a full scale multimodal logistics service provider. Expect FY14-17E volume CAGR at 12% and EBITDA CAGR at 18% n While the expected economic recovery will benefit logistics sector, we believe CCRI’s growth will be higher given its scale and likely disproportionate benefit from investments in MMLPs. n We expect CCRI’s volume to post 12% CAGR and EBITDA 18% CAGR aided by margin improvement as the double stacking share increases. Valuation and view n We value CCRI on DFC-based (WACC 11.7%, TGR 5%) to arrive at a fair value of INR1,777/sh implying 19% upside. n The stock trades at 21x FY17E EPS of INR71 and has a dividend yield of ~1%. Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Initiating Coverage | Sector: Logistics Container Corporation CMP: INR1,488 TP: INR1,777 (+19%) Buy BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg CCRI IN Equity Shares (m) 195.0 52-Week Range (INR) 1,650/750 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 5/3/48 M.Cap. (INR b) 290.2 M.Cap. (USD b) 4.7 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 156/127 Free float (%) 38.2 Financial Snapshot (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales 58.9 73.6 82.9 EBITDA 13.0 16.3 18.2 NP 9.6 12.1 13.8 EPS (INR) 49.2 62.2 70.6 EPS Gr. (%) 1.0 26.4 13.6 BV/Sh (INR) 388.0 431.8 481.6 RoE (%) 13.3 15.2 15.5 RoCE (%) 17.5 20.0 20.4 P/E (x) 30.3 23.9 21.1 P/BV (x) 3.8 3.4 3.1 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 61.8 61.8 63.1 DII 7.8 6.7 4.9 FII 25.0 25.9 29.0 Others 5.4 5.6 3.1 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) 700 950 1,200 1,450 1,700 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Container Corpn. Sensex - Rebased Container Corporation March 2015 41 Dominant player, pre-emptive investments for long term growth n CCRI i s a n u ndisputed leader i n ra il t ransport (76% ma rket s hare) l ed b y f avorable depot locations (legacy benefit), scale (10x in size of the next biggest competitor) led by continuous core business capex focus. n Company is spending INR60b to develop 15 MMLPs (Multimodal Logistics Parks) along with upcoming DFCs, thus potentially upgrading it to a full scale multimodal logistics service provider. Early mover advantage and focused capex ensured high market share n CCRI, being the first container train operation (incorporated in 1988), received railway’s surplus lands at strategic locations on a long term lease. Despite private players entry, CCRI’s continual core capex focus ensured its leadership position in the sector. n The key bargaining chip with container train operators apart from service quality, in our view, is the wide network availability (rakes, number of locations etc). CCRI, with 63 locations and 275 rakes, is well positioned to maintain its volume share. n Post private CTOs entry, CCRI lost the market share for few years as private CTOs entered new territories or the ones neglected by it. However, having lost some market share, CCRI swiftly stepped up efforts through (a) tariff rationalization (bulk discounts, rebates etc) and (b) strategic JVs to provide seamless logistics solutions. n Private CTOs were not able to maintain the momentum given the slowdown in EXIM business, lower RoCE, delays in ICD development (land acquisition issues) coupled with steep hike in haulage rates (~29% in December 2012 and February 2013) by Railways. Exhibit 1: CCRI regained market share in recent years and maintains it at >75% Source: Company, MOSL Pre-emptive capex to develop MMLPs CCRI’s ~80% revenue accrues from rail container operations, and in its efforts to provide value-added services, is focusing on developing MMLPs. CCRI is building 15 new multimodal logistics parks (MMLP) along the upcoming DFCs to augment its already large network of 63 CFS and ICDs. 95 94 85 78 75 73 75 76 5 7 15 22 25 27 25 24 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Concor share (%) Private CTOs share (%) Container Corporation March 2015 42 It plans to spend ~INR60b (~50% on MMLPs and private container terminals) over the FY13-17 period that includes land acquisition, terminal development and purchase of equipments. The MMLPs will be set up over the next two to three years and will be fully operational along with the completion of dedicated freight corridors. MMLPs can be defined as transport hubs that provide integrated logistics facilities like warehousing, cold storage, handling, customs examination etc by mechanized handling and intelligent inventory management to handle bulk, break bulk and containerized traffic in a cost effective manner. Exhibit 2: CCRI revenue breakup ( %): MMLPs ex pected t o r educe dependence o n freight operations Source: Company, MOSL While the acquired land (acreage) for MMLPs will be large, development will be in phases and will also house dedicated warehouses for some individual companies/industries. CCRI has started operations at Khatuwas and plans to start operations in the next one to two years at around six locations. Exhibit 3: Planned MMLPs across India No. Location State Area (Acres) Status 1 Nagaulapalli Telangana 80 Working as DCT & PFT in 17 acres 2 Khatuwas Rajasthan 280 Working as Double Stacking Hub, 20 acres developed 3 Sriperumbudur (Road Based) Tamil Nadu 50 Commissioning by Dec, 2014 4 Pantnagar (JVC with SIIDCUL) Uttarakhand 40 Commissioning by Mar, 2015 5 Vallarpadam (Road based) Kerala 20 Commissioning by Jun, 2015 6 Vishakapatnam Andhra Pradesh 100 Working as road based CFS – Ph I; developing 10 acres 7 Naya Raipur Chattisgarh 100 Commissioning by Dec, 2015 8 Nagpur Maharashtra 107 Commissioning by Dec, 2015 9 Jharsuguda Odisha 30 Commissioning by Dec, 2015 10 Haridwar Uttarakhand 35 Approached BHEL for land transfer 11 Swarupganj Rajasthan 400 Land Acquisition – Sec 6 notification 12 Vadodara Gujarat 130 Majority land acquired, construction started 13 Kila Raipur Punjab 150 JVC with CONWARE acquiring land 14 Parjang Odisha 50 Land being identified by ASRL & IDCO 15 Duburi Odisha 50 Land being identified by ASRL & IDCO Source: Company, MOSL 75 75 76 76 4 4 4 3 21 21 21 21 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Rail Freight Road Freight Warehousing and Handling Container Corporation March 2015 43 Expect volume growth and margin recovery n While the expected economic r ecovery will b enefit logistics sector, we expect CCRI’s growth t o b e h igher, given i ts s cale a nd l ikely d isproportionate b enefit f rom investments in MMLPs. n We estimate CCRI to post 14% volume CAGR and 16% EBITDA CAGR aided by margin improvement as double stacking share increases. EXIM growth and containerization to boost volume growth Driven by EXIM and containerization growth, we model EXIM volume at 14% CAGR over FY14-17E and domestic volume CAGR at 12%, leading to overall volume CAGR of 14% as EXIM is expected to continue to contribute ~83% of total volumes. Exhibit 4: Model 14% volume CAGR over FY14-17E Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 5: Expect EBITDA t o post 18% CAGR l ed by volume growth and improvement i n profitability Source: Company, MOSL 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Volumes (million TEUs) EXIM Domestic Total 9 9 10 10 10 12 15 17 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 10 11 11 11 12 14 17 19 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E EBITDA (INR b) Exim Domestic Total EBITDA Container Corporation March 2015 44 Exhibit 6: Western Corridor of India contributed to 76% of CCRI’s FY13 volumes Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 7: While EBITDA CAGR is healthy at 16%, PAT CAGR will be depressed due to higher depreciation rate under new Companies Act 2013 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY14-17 CAGR (%) EBITDA 10.2 10.5 10.8 13.0 16.3 18.3 19% Depreciation 1.6 1.8 1.9 4.0 4.5 4.9 37% Other Income 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.9 10% Interest 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.7 16.0 18.2 13% Tax 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.4 13% PAT 14.7 14.7 15.6 15.7 19.8 22.6 13% Source: Company, MOSL CCRI is a debt free company (net cash at INR29b as of September 2014) with healthy cash flows. Currently, it has embarked on an INR60b capex to be spent over the next few years, primarily on MMLPs. Though the logistics parks take time to develop fully, investment needs to be done upfront. Hence, the capex intensity will remain high and revenue will be back-ended, resulting in lower return ratios in the interim period. Exhibit 8: Capex intensity to remain high… Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 9: ...resulting in lower FCF versus historical trend Source: Company, MOSL 320 324 373 352 289 189 217 240 254 262 288 317 289 283 304 858 899 917 949 907 105 123 128 152 148 91 122 129 119 75 346 284 335 356 274 111 135 152 140 108 14 14 16 15 13 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 13 12 13 37 39 40 41 39 5 5 6 7 6 4 5 6 5 3 15 12 14 15 12 5 6 7 6 5 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Western North Western North Central Northern Central Eastern Southern South Cetral Volume (TEUs) As a % of total 3.2 2.2 4.6 3.1 3.1 2.3 5.9 5.3 9.8 10.3 10.1 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Capex (INRb) 4.3 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.9 5.5 3.2 1.2 1.5 4.3 5.2 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FCF (INRb) Container Corporation March 2015 45 Exhibit 10: Also, re turn ra tios t o re main u nder p ressure l ed by c apex t owards l ong gestation MMLPs Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 11: CCRI’s gross block will increase rapidly in next few years led by INR60b capex plan primarily on MMLPs Source: Company, MOSL 25.3 22.6 19.4 19.0 16.5 15.8 14.5 13.3 15.2 15.5 57.0 55.0 46.0 42.2 42.4 39.1 33.4 28.7 33.2 35.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E RoE (%) RoCE (%) 0 25 50 75 100 0% 7% 13% 20% 26% FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E Gross Block (INRb) - RHS 3 Yr Gross Block CAGR (%) Container Corporation March 2015 46 Valuation and view Initiate coverage with Buy, target price of INR1,777 n CCRI i s a d irect p lay o n t he u pcoming l arge ra il i nfrastructure ( DFCs), re vival in economic growth and higher containerization. n Key factors to watch out are (a) EXIM growth trend, (b) expansion of port capacities (JNPT in the near term) and (b) completion of DFCs. n Key r isks include ( a) lo wer-than-expected GDP growth, ( b) sharp increase in haulage rates, (c) delay in DFCs completion and (d) any increase in export-import imbalance. n Given the debt free balance sheet, we expect the dividend payout (currently at 25%) to increase in the next few years as it nears the end of its ongoing large capex cycle, which is funded fully through equity. n We v alue C CRI on DFC-based ( WACC 1 1.7%, TG R 5% ) to ar rive at a f air v alue o f INR1,777/sh implying 19% upside. n The stock trades at 21x FY 17E EPS of INR71 and has a dividend yield of ~1%. Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Exhibit 12: Concor DCF Valuation Summary - We value Concor at INR1,777 Source: MOSL Container Corporation March 2015 47 Exhibit 13: Concor – Key Assumptions Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Volumes - TEU EXIM 1,882 2,019 2,136 2,152 2,361 2,645 2,936 3,288 Domestic 539 544 468 434 507 558 625 719 Total 2,421 2,562 2,604 2,586 2,869 3,203 3,561 4,007 Volumes YoY Chg (%) EXIM 1.5% 7.2% 5.8% 0.8% 9.7% 12.0% 11.0% 12.0% Domestic 18.9% 0.9% -13.9% -7.4% 17.0% 10.0% 12.0% 15.0% Total 4.9% 5.8% 1.6% -0.7% 10.9% 11.6% 11.2% 12.5% Realization (INR/TEU) EXIM 15,399 14,820 15,293 16,449 16,473 17,050 19,181 19,181 Domestic 14,977 15,387 16,983 19,975 22,344 23,126 26,016 26,016 Total 15,408 15,218 15,746 17,191 17,808 18,401 20,670 20,690 EBITDA (INR/TEU) EXIM 4,565 4,633 4,605 4,552 4,394 4,518 5,083 5,083 Domestic 2,692 2,154 2,203 2,898 2,863 3,122 3,512 3,512 Total 4,148 4,107 4,173 4,274 4,123 4,275 4,807 4,801 Source: Company, MOSL Container Corporation March 2015 48 Company description n Container Corporation (CCRI), a Navratna company from July 2014, was incorporated in 1988 and started operation in November 1989 by taking over seven ICDs from Indian Railways. CCRI is a public sector company with the government’s holding of 61.8%. n Over the years, it has grown the operations to 63 ICDs which include 13 exportimport depots, 15 exclusive domestic depots and 35 terminals (operates as domestic and international terminals). To support its operation, CCRI owns 275 rakes, 12,251 wagons and ~21,000 containers. n Given the high inter-dependence of shipping lines and freight aggregators, CCRI has formed several JVs with its customers (GDL/Allcargo), port operators (APM/ DPI), road haulers (TCI), air cargo (HALCON/GVK) and shipping lines (Maersk) to aid its business. CCRI is investing to set up multi-modal logistics parks along the upcoming DFCs. n Company earns its revenue from container rail transport (EXIM and domestic), port terminal operations and warehousing. Exhibit 14: CCRI increased its owned containers by 7% CAGR in the last 10 years Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 15: CCRI’s high speed wagons increased at 13% CAGR since FY04 Source: Company, MOSL 10,771 10,874 11,745 12,812 13,517 13,576 15,754 15,579 16,109 18,680 20,984 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 CCRI owned containers (TEUs) 3,171 4,606 5,112 5,927 6,722 8,117 8,837 9,309 9,631 10,413 10,754 2,841 2,976 2,650 2,650 1,699 1,699 1,357 1,357 1,357 1,357 1,357 6,012 7,582 7,762 8,577 8,421 9,816 10,194 10,666 10,988 11,770 12,111 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 High Speed Wagons (BLC/BLL) Other wagons Total Container Corporation March 2015 49 Exhibit 16: CCRI has several JVs and certain subsidiaries to exploit synergies JV/Subsidiary Name Concor Stake (%) Operating Area Details JV's at Dadri CFS/ICD 1 Star Track Terminals 49% CFS at Dadri, U.P. JV with APM Terminals India Pvt. Ltd. (formerly known as Maersk India Pvt. Ltd.) 2 Albatross Inland Ports 49% CFS at Dadri, U.P. JV with Transworld group of Companies 3 CMA-CGM Logistics Park (Dadri) 49% CFS at Dadri, U.P. JV with Ameya Logistics Pvt. Ltd. 4 Hind CONCOR Terminals (Dadri) * 49% CFS at Dadri, U.P. JV with Hind Terminals Pvt. Ltd. 5 Allcargo Logistics Park 49% CFS at Dadri, U.P. JV with Allcargo Global Logistics Ltd. JV's at Port Terminals 6 Gateway Terminals India 26% 3rd berth at JN Port, Mumbai JV with APM Terminals Mauritius Ltd. 7 India Gateway Terminal 15% Container Terminals at Cochin JV with Dubai Port International Other Diversified JV's 8 TCI-CONCOR Multimodal Solutions 49% To establish logistics freight terminals and provide integrated logistics services across the country. JV with TCI 9 Container Gateway 49% For operations of existing rail/road container terminal at Garhi Harsaru, Gurgaon (Haryana) JV with Gateway Rail Freight Ltd. 10 Himalayan Terminals 40% Management and operation of rail container terminal at Birgunj JV with Nepalese Enterprises & Transworld group of companies 11 HALCON 50% An air cargo complex & ICD at Ozar airport, Nasik. A business arrangement with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Subsidiaries 12 Fresh & Healthy Enterprises 100% Cold chain logistics 13 CONCOR Air 100% Run cargo terminal at Mumbai Airport 14 SIDCUL CONCOR Infra Company 74% To develop logistics parks at Pantnagar and Haridwar. JV with SIIDCUL (State Infrastructure & Industrial Development Corporation of Uttrakhand). 15 Punjab Logistics Infrastructure 51% Develop MMLP at Kila Raipur JV with Punjab State Container & Warehousing Corporation Limited (CONWARE). *Voluntary winding up under process Source: Company, MOSL Container Corporation March 2015 50 Exhibit 17: CCRI’s current terminal network Total Only EXIM EXIM + Domestic Only Domestic CENTRAL 5 Maharashtra 3 1- Daulatabad (Aurangabad) 1- Nagpur, 2- Bhusawal Chhattishgarh 1 3- Raipur MP 1 4- Mandideep (Bhopal) EASTERN 9 West Bengal 4 5- Majerhat (Kolkata), 6 - Haldia 1- Shalimar (Kolkata), 2 - Durgapur Bihar 1 3- Fatuha (Patna) Odisha 2 7- Balasore 4- Rourkela Jharkhand 1 8- Tatanagar (Jamshedpur) Chhattishgarh Assam 1 9- Amingaon NORTHERN 16 Delhi 3 2- Tughlakabad (Delhi) 5- Okhla (Delhi) UP 1 10- Moradabad Haryana 4 3- Babarpur (Panipat) 11- Sonepat, 12- Rewari, 13- Ballabhgarh Punjab 4 4- Dhandharikalan (Ludhiana) 14- Dhappar 6- Phillaur (Ludhiana),7- Suranassi Rajasthan 4 15- Kanakpura (Jaipur), 16- Bhagat ki Kothi (Jodhpur) 8- Khemli (Udaipur), 9- Kathuwas Himachal Pradesh 1 17- Baddi# NORTH CENTRAL 6 UP 4 18-Dadri (Greater Noida) , 19- Agra, 20- Kanpur, 21- Madho Singh (Mirazpur) Uttarakhand M.P. 1 22- Malanpur (Gwalior) Rajasthan 1 23- Ravtha Road (Kota) NORTH WESTERN 6 Gujarat, Diu 6 5- Khodiyar (Ahemdabad), 6- Chhanni(Vadodara) 24- Vadodara, 25- Gandhidham, 26- Ankleshwar 10- Sabarmati (Ahemdabad) SOUTHERN 9 Tamilnadu 7 7- Milavattan (Tuticorin), 8- Irugur (Coimbatore), 9- Tiruppur, 10- Harbour of Madras (Chennai) 27- Tondiarpet (Chennai), 28- Kudal Nagar (Madurai) 11-Salem Market Karnataka 1 29- Whitefield (Bangalore) Kerala 1 30- Cochin SOUTH CENTRAL 5 Andhra Pradesh / Telangana 4 31- Sanathnagar (Hyderabad), 32- Vishakhapatnam, 12- Nagulapally (Hyderabad), 13- Guntur Karnataka 1 33- Desur (Belgam) WESTERN 7 MP 2 11- Pithampur (Indore), 12- Ratlam Maharashtra 5 13- New Mulund (Mumbai) 34- Chinchwad (Pune), 35- Dronagiri Node (Mumbai) 14- Turbhe (Mumbai), 15- Miraj Goa Total Terminals 63 13 35 15 Source: Company, MOSL Container Corporation March 2015 51 Exhibit 18: CCRI’s terminal network Source: Company, MOSL Container Corporation March 2015 52 Financials & valuations (Consolidated) Consolidated - Income Statement Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total Income from Operations 37,306 38,992 41,009 44,450 51,085 58,933 73,598 82,409 Change (%) 8.1 4.5 5.2 8.4 14.9 15.4 24.9 12.0 Total Expenditure 27,711 28,836 30,776 33,953 40,303 45,926 57,337 64,197 % of Sales 74.3 74.0 75.0 76.4 78.9 77.9 77.9 77.9 EBITDA 9,595 10,156 10,232 10,497 10,782 13,007 16,261 18,212 Margin (%) 25.7 26.0 25.0 23.6 21.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 Depreciation 1,388 1,489 1,621 1,763 1,934 4,034 4,451 4,932 EBIT 8,208 8,667 8,611 8,734 8,849 8,973 11,810 13,280 Int. and Finance Charges 39 49 54 32 12 10 10 10 Other Income 1,812 1,971 3,135 3,326 3,699 3,693 4,167 4,868 PBT bef. EO Exp. 9,980 10,589 11,692 12,027 12,536 12,656 15,967 18,139 EO Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PBT after EO Exp. 9,980 10,589 11,692 12,027 12,536 12,656 15,967 18,139 Current Tax 2,033 1,647 2,884 2,406 2,732 3,052 3,832 4,353 Deferred Tax 171 179 152 315 290 0 0 0 Tax Rate (%) 22.1 17.2 26.0 22.6 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 Less: Mionrity Interest 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15 Reported PAT 7,776 8,764 8,657 9,306 9,499 9,589 12,120 13,771 Adjusted PAT 7,776 8,764 8,657 9,306 9,499 9,589 12,120 13,771 Change (%) -0.2 12.7 -1.2 7.5 2.1 1.0 26.4 13.6 Margin (%) 20.8 22.5 21.1 20.9 18.6 16.3 16.5 16.7 Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Equity Share Capital 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950 Total Reserves 41,670 48,088 54,252 60,905 66,948 73,705 82,245 91,948 Net Worth 42,970 49,388 55,552 62,205 68,898 75,654 84,194 93,897 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 275 275 275 275 Deferred Liabilities 2,242 2,428 2,616 2,964 3,244 3,244 3,244 3,244 Total Loans 424 471 581 385 0 0 0 0 Capital Employed 45,636 52,286 58,749 65,553 72,416 79,173 87,713 97,416 Gross Block 30,703 33,683 35,856 40,780 45,565 55,292 63,389 71,731 Less: Accum. Deprn. 8,344 9,722 11,268 12,946 14,844 18,878 23,329 28,261 Net Fixed Assets 22,359 23,961 24,588 27,834 30,721 36,414 40,061 43,470 Capital WIP 2,064 1,069 1,041 1,884 2,415 2,438 4,590 6,299 Total Investments 1,922 1,956 2,447 3,690 6,767 6,767 6,767 6,767 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 25,534 30,705 37,009 38,930 40,352 43,071 48,263 54,377 Inventory 158 125 367 554 171 377 471 528 Account Receivables 197 296 303 285 478 484 605 677 Cash and Bank Balance 19,925 22,961 27,576 29,460 26,984 29,363 34,212 40,068 Loans and Advances 5,254 7,323 8,764 8,632 12,719 12,846 12,974 13,104 Curr. Liability & Prov. 6,377 5,545 6,515 7,006 8,032 9,710 12,161 13,690 Account Payables 3,001 1,173 1,222 1,683 1,793 2,013 2,513 2,814 Other Current Liabilities 1,913 2,828 3,513 3,325 4,622 4,715 5,888 6,593 Provisions 1,463 1,544 1,780 1,997 1,617 2,982 3,760 4,283 Net Current Assets 19,157 25,161 30,494 31,925 32,320 33,361 36,102 40,687 Deferred Tax assets 133 140 178 221 194 194 194 194 Misc Expenditure 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Appl. of Funds 45,636 52,286 58,749 65,553 72,416 79,173 87,713 97,416 E: MOSL Estimates Container Corporation March 2015 53 Financials & valuations (Consolidated) Ratios Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Basic (INR) EPS 59.8 67.4 66.6 71.6 48.7 49.2 62.2 70.6 Cash EPS 70.5 78.9 79.1 85.2 58.6 69.9 85.0 95.9 BV/Share 330.6 380.0 427.4 478.6 353.4 388.0 431.8 481.6 DPS 14.0 15.5 16.5 17.5 12.3 12.4 15.7 17.8 Payout (%) 27.3 26.8 28.8 28.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 Valuation (x) P/E 30.5 30.3 23.9 21.1 Cash P/E 25.4 21.3 17.5 15.5 P/BV 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 EV/Sales 5.2 4.4 3.5 3.0 EV/EBITDA 24.4 20.1 15.7 13.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 FCF per share 24.8 29.6 42.0 25.0 6.3 7.9 22.0 26.1 Return Ratios (%) RoE 19.4 19.0 16.5 15.8 14.5 13.3 15.2 15.5 RoCE 24.7 22.8 22.2 20.3 19.1 17.5 20.0 20.4 Working Capital Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Asset Turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Growth (%) Sales 8.1 4.5 5.2 8.4 14.9 15.4 24.9 12.0 EBITDA 3.5 5.8 0.8 2.6 2.7 20.6 25.0 12.0 PAT -0.2 12.7 -1.2 7.5 2.1 1.0 26.4 13.6 Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio 4.0 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E OP/(Loss) before Tax 9,975 10,589 11,692 12,027 12,536 12,656 15,967 18,139 Depreciation 1,388 1,489 1,621 1,763 1,934 4,034 4,451 4,932 Interest & Finance Charges -1,447 -1,477 -2,539 -2,977 -3,101 -3,683 -4,157 -4,858 Direct Taxes Paid -3,680 -2,225 -2,000 -2,142 -2,478 -3,052 -3,832 -4,353 (Inc)/Dec in WC 92 -1,460 -1,066 425 -2,324 1,338 2,108 1,270 CF from Operations 6,328 6,916 7,708 9,095 6,567 11,294 14,537 15,130 Others 3 17 14 8 -1 0 0 0 CF from Operating incl EO 6,331 6,933 7,722 9,104 6,566 11,294 14,537 15,130 (inc)/dec in FA -3,112 -3,081 -2,267 -5,858 -5,344 -9,750 -10,250 -10,050 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -241 -34 -500 -1,245 -3,075 0 0 0 Others 1,489 1,565 1,939 2,681 2,816 3,693 4,167 4,868 CF from Investments -1,864 -1,550 -828 -4,422 -5,603 -6,057 -6,083 -5,182 (Inc)/Dec in Debt -63 49 110 -196 -385 0 0 0 Interest Paid -38 -46 -48 -33 -13 -10 -10 -10 Dividend Paid -2,129 -2,349 -2,342 -2,568 -3,042 -2,833 -3,580 -4,068 CF from Fin. Activity -2,230 -2,346 -2,279 -2,798 -3,439 -2,857 -3,605 -4,093 Inc/Dec of Cash 2,236 3,036 4,615 1,884 -2,475 2,379 4,849 5,855 Opening Balance 17,689 19,925 22,961 27,576 29,460 26,984 29,363 34,212 Closing Balance 19,925 22,961 27,576 29,460 26,984 29,363 34,212 40,068 Gateway Distriparks March 2015 54 Focused logistics play, multiple triggers ahead Profitability boost led by GDP revival, DFC completion, containerization n Gateway D istriparks ( GDPL), an inter-modal logistics player (rail, r oad, CFS and cold c hain t hrough S nowman) with connectivity from key ports to demand centers, i s w ell p oised t o benefit f rom India’s GDP revival a nd western DFC (dedicated freight corridor) commissioning. n We estimate overall EBITDA (adjusted for Snowman) CAGR through FY17E at 25%, driven by rail (26% CAGR) and CFS (20% CAGR). n We i nitiate c overage w ith a B uy, b ased o n S OTP-based fair v alue o f INR535/sh (INR493/sh for core business and INR42/sh for Snowman, post 25% discount). Key beneficiary of DFCs and economic revival n GDPL’s businesses will benefit from (a) DFCs completion and increasing containerization (last 12-year CAGR at 9% growth versus 6% in overall EXIM trade at major ports), (b) India’s GDP revival, (c) improving logistics infrastructure and (d) GST implementation. n DFCs (full commissioning likely by 2019) will increase the rail freight capacity and profitability of CTOs through double stacking and lower transit time. n India’s GDP revival will translate into higher EXIM trade, while infrastructure improvement and GST implementation will improve the share of organized logistics service providers over the medium term. Rail business to see multifold growth, adequate land bank for 4x growth n Gateway Rail is the second-largest port-linked rail freight service operator in India with 21 rakes and 235+ truck trailers for the last mile connectivity. n We expect GDPL’s CTO volume/margin to expand led by EXIM growth, increased containerization and DFCs start (double stacking, high speed and wagon capacity). Also expect market share gains led by service quality. n While the current ICD capacity can handle 4x volume increase with minimal capex, we model 16% volume CAGR, leading to 26% EBITDA CAGR through FY17. We do not model the new planned ICD capacity at Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Nagpur in our estimates. Steady growth in CFS business, capacity addition to boost earnings n While CFS business is very competitive, we expect GDPL’s utilization to remain high due to port proximity and higher share of local consumption at its locations — Mumbai, Chennai, Vizag and Kochi. n For FY14-17E, we model 13% volume CAGR driven by 19% in subsidiary CFS and 10% in Mumbai CFS leading to 20% overall EBITDA CAGR through FY17. Valuation and view n We value GGDPL on SOTP-based fair value of INR535/sh (INR493/sh for core business on DCF basis, WACC: 11.4%, TGR: 5% and INR42/sh for Snowman stake post 25% discount). n The stock trades at 17.3x FY17E EPS of INR23.7 and has a dividend (payout 65%) yield of 2-3%. Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Initiating Coverage | Sector: Logistics Gateway Distriparks CMP: INR410 TP: INR535 (+29%) Buy BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg GDPL IN Equity Shares (m) 108.6 52-Week Range (INR) 459/133 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 6/5/147 M.Cap. (INR b) 44.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 0.7 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 103/391 Free float (%) 67.1 Financial Snapshot (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales 11.0 11.9 14.0 EBITDA 3.3 3.7 4.4 Adj PAT 1.8 2.1 2.6 EPS (INR) 16.9 19.2 23.7 Gr. (%) 34.8 14.0 23.5 BV/Sh. (INR) 110.4 117.2 125.6 RoE (%) 15.7 16.9 19.6 RoCE (%) 17.4 20.3 23.6 P/E (x) 24.3 21.3 17.3 P/BV (x) 3.7 3.5 3.3 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 32.9 36.7 42.0 DII 25.7 25.3 15.9 FII 29.5 25.3 28.7 Others 12.0 12.7 13.5 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) 100 200 300 400 500 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Gateway Distr. Sensex - Rebased Gateway Distriparks March 2015 55 Rail business could see multifold growth Minimal capex required for fourfold capacity increase n Gateway Ra il i s t he s econd-largest p ort-linked ra il f reight s ervice o perator i n I ndia with 21 rakes and 235+ truck trailers for the last mile connectivity. n We e xpect G DPL’s C TO v olume/margin t o e xpand l ed b y E XIM growth, i ncreased containerization a nd D FCs s tart ( double s tacking, h igh s peed a nd w agon c apacity). Also expect market share gains led by service quality. n While the current ICD capacity can handle 4x volume increase with minimal capex, we model 1 6% v olume C AGR, l eading t o 2 6% E BITDA C AGR t hrough F Y17. W e d o n ot model t he n ew p lanned I CD c apacity a t Ahmedabad, J aipur a nd N agpur i n o ur estimates. Strategic ICD location to ensure volume growth n GDPL’s rail operations are carried out through three inland container depots (ICDs) located at Gurgaon, Ludhiana and Faridabad (key demand centers for imports in India and export hubs). n Western corridor (Mumbai/Gujarat to Delhi) accounts for the highest share of India’s container traffic and Gateway Rail is well poised to benefit from growth in this region. n Company plans to add new ICD locations at Ahmedabad (acquired land), Jaipur and Nagpur (central locations in India). Exhibit 1: Gateway Rail’s strategically located ICDs to benefit from EXIM growth Source: Company, MOSL Gateway Distriparks March 2015 56 Adequate land bank to aid fourfold capacity increase n Gateway Rail has adequate ICD land bank which can take care of fourfold volume increase with minimal capex. n Recently it announced it will buy additional 11 acres in Garhi Harsaru to meet the growing demand for warehousing facilities as customers are looking for logistics solutions (supply chain management), than just plain vanilla services. n It handles ~0.2m teu volumes at its ICDs, against 0.5m teu of capacity. As a rule of thumb, capacity expansion is needed once utilization reaches 60-65%. n Based on the current land bank, it can expand the handling capacity to 1m TEU at a capex of INR3.5b. n On the rake front, it currently has 21 and plans to lease additional two rakes in the near term. Company will assess the buy versus lease decision, though is unlikely to buy any new wagons before the new 100 tonnes can be used. Model FY14-17E CAGR at 16% in volume and 26% in EBITDA n For FY14-17E, we model 16% volume CAGR driven by Faridabad ramp-up and capacity expansion at Garhi and Ludhiana. n Gateway Rail’s profitability has seen remarkable improvements over the years led by higher utilization and increasing double stacking volumes (currently double stacking ratio at 63% as possible only on Gujarat to Delhi route and not yet available from JNPT). n Double stacking has helped to save INR120m in 1HFY15, implying annual potential savings of INR250m. As of now, the railway axle load capacity limits the extent of double stacking, though post DFCs, double stacking can be fully utilized through the route. n Private ownership gives Gateway the operational as well as financial flexibility to improve service quality in terms of hassle free experience for the customer. We expect Gateway to gain market share primarily due to its better service quality. n We estimate an EBITDA improvement from ~INR6,500/teu in 9MFY15 to ~INR7,000/teu by FY17E, resulting in 32% EBITDA CAGR over FY14-17E. Exhibit 2: We m odel 1 7% v olume C AGR over FY 14-17E l ed b y Faridabad ra mp-up a nd capacity expansion at Garhi and Ludhiana Source: Company, MOSL 112 131 180 234 212 253 290 337 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Rail throughput ('000 TEUs) Gateway Distriparks March 2015 57 Exhibit 3: Expect 32% EBITDA C AGR over FY 14-17E led b y v olume g rowth a nd l ikely improvement in profitability Source: Exhibit 4: Gateway Rail – key assumptions Source: Company, MOSL 302 438 717 820 1,023 1,649 1,942 2,356 2,687 3,333 3,971 3,510 4,819 6,524 6,700 7,000 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Rail EBITDA (INRm) EBITDA (INR/teu) Gateway Distriparks March 2015 58 Steady growth in CFS business Strategic l ocation to k eep uti lization hi gh, c apacity a ddition to bo ost earnings n While C FS b usiness is very c ompetitive, w e ex pect GDPL’s u tilization t o r emain h igh due t o p ort p roximity a nd h igher s hare o f l ocal c onsumption a t i ts l ocations — Mumbai, Chennai, Vizag and Kochi. n We model 13% volume CAGR driven by 19% in subsidiary CFS and 10% in Mumbai CFS . n We ex pect 2 0% E BITDA C AGR i n FY 14-17E d riven b y 1 3% v olume C AGR a nd 2% realization CAGR. Location advantage to compensate for competitive pressures n With limited entry barriers, many new players have entered the CFS business. However, service quality and proximity to port plays (Gateway’s CFS are within 17km of ports) are vital for higher utilization. n GDPL is one of the biggest CFS players in India with current port-based capacity of 0.6m teu. Its CFS locations, similar to its rail division, are strategic at Mumbai (two locations), Chennai (two), Vizag and Kochi, which account for 83% of major ports’ container volumes. n Competition is the highest in Mumbai and Chennai locations with >25 CFS players operating in each location. n CFS comes in handy at a location which has (a) higher share of local consumption and (b) distance traveled is <500km, leading to a higher share of road movement. n Given India’s V-shaped geography towards the southern tip, maximum distances to be travelled are lesser, thus further boosting road transport’s share and in turn demand for CFS. ~80% of the container traffic in Chennai is consumed locally, while in Mumbai the local consumption share is lower at ~50%. Exhibit 5: GDPL’s CFS are within short distance from nearest ports Location Capacity Port Distance from Port Mumbai 360,000 JNPT 10.3 Mumbai (Punjab Conware) 15 Chennai 90,000 Chennai 15 from Chennai and 17 from Ennore Chennai (Chandra) 50,000 Ennore Vizag 70,000 Vizag 10 Kochi 50,000 Kochi 1 Total 620,000 Source: Company, MOSL Model FY14-17E CAGR at 13% in volume and 20% in EBITDA n We expect GDPL’s CFS business to report ~13% volume CAGR led by improving utilization at Mumbai and the ramp-up at Chennai and Kochi. n Mumbai’s volume ramp-up will be driven by increasing EXIM growth and from the upcoming 0.8-1m teu expansion at JNPT by DP World. n Chennai (Chandra) CFS’ volume growth will be driven by Kattupalli Port and Ennore Port in the near term, which have proximity to Chandra CFS. Gateway Distriparks March 2015 59 n Vizag CFS is near its full utilization and management is working on various options to expand/shift the location to accommodate higher volumes. n We model 20% EBITDA CAGR led by volume growth and ongoing tariff restructuring. Exhibit 6: We m odel consolidated C FS v olume C AGR a t 1 3% i n F Y14-17E d riven b y 1 8% CAGR for subsidiary CFS Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 7: Expect CFS EBITDA to report 20% CAGR through FY17E led by higher volume and improved profitability Source: Company, MOSL 215 230 219 223 209 226 245 275 64 74 78 76 74 94 118 133 24 29 37 43 51 61 63 63 - - - 1 6 16 19 24 304 333 334 343 340 396 445 495 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Mumbai Chennai Vizag Kochi Total In '000 TEU 995 1,136 1,654 1,412 1,168 1,480 1,731 1,994 3,273 3,408 4,949 4,120 3,436 3,732 3,885 4,033 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E CFS EBITDA (INRm) CFS EBITDA (INR/teu) Gateway Distriparks March 2015 60 Exhibit 8: CFS business – key assumptions Source: Company, MOSL Gateway Distriparks March 2015 61 Company description Incorporated in 1994, Gateway Distriparks (GDPL) is the logistics facilitator with presence in three synergistic verticals – Container Freight Stations (CFS), Inland Container Depots (ICD) with rail movement of containers to major ports, and cold chain storage logistics. GDPL operates five container freight stations, two in Mumbai and one each in Chennai, Vizag and Kochi with a total capacity of over 600,000 teu. Services provided by the CFS include bonded and transit warehousing, customs clearance, transportation and storage, reefer services and other customized solutions. Its rail subsidiary Gateway Rail Ltd provides multi-modal logistics services through its rail linked ICDs. It operates four ICDs located at Gurgaon (Garhi-Harsaru), Ludhiana (Punjab), Mumbai and Faridabad (Asaoti, Haryana). These ICDs are linked through rail network to western India ports of Mumbai in Maharashtra, Mundra and Pipavav in Gujarat. Gateway Rail owns 21 rakes and 235+ road trailers for the last mile connectivity. Its recently-spun subsidiary (through an IPO, current GDPL stake at 40.4%) Snowman Logistics is a cold chain logistics service provider. It operates through 30 reefer vehicles with 23 temperature controlled warehouses across 14 locations in India, including Serampore (near Kolkata), Taloja (near Mumbai), Palwal (near Delhi), Mevalurkuppam (near Chennai) and Bengaluru. Exhibit 9: GDPL’s group structure Source: Company, MOSL Institutions Others Punjab Conware CFS (NaviMumbai- O&M) 46 % 3 % Gateway Distriparks Ltd. Retail 14 % CFS, Dronagiri (NaviMumbai) Promoters/ Associates/ Directors 37 % Gateway East India Pvt. Ltd. CFS, Vizag (Subsidiary) Gateway Distriparks (South) Pvt. Ltd. CFS, Chennai (Subsidiary) 100% Gateway Rail Freight Ltd. Rail SPV (Subsidiary) 98% Gateway Distriparks (Kerala) Ltd. CFS, Kochi (JV -Subsidiary) 60% Snowman Logistics Ltd. Cold Chain Logistics Business (Joint Venture -Subsidiary) 100% 40 % Rail-ICDs - Garhi Harsaru, Ludhiana & Faridabad Gateway Distriparks March 2015 62 Exhibit 10: GDPL’s asset summary Sl. Location CFS/ Title Area Developed Area (Sq. Mt) No. Rail ICD (Acres) Yard Warehouse 1 Navi Mumbai (Near JNPT/Uran) CFS 60-year Lease 35.0 100,000 40,000 2 Punjab Conware (Near JNPT) CFS 15-year O & M 27.0 65,000 50,000 WEF 1 Feb 2007 3 Chennai (Bet. Chennai & Ennore) CFS Freehold 20.0 70,000 7,000 4 Chennai (Near Ennore/Kattupalli) CFS Freehold 10.5 36,000 4,000 5 Vizag CFS 30-year Lease 20.0 75,000 3,000 6 Kochi (Vallarpadam) CFS 30-year Lease 6.5 24,000 1,000 Kochi (Kalamasserry) CFS Freehold 20.0 Land Bank 7 Garhi Harsaru (Near Gurgaon) Rail ICD Freehold 90.0 250,000 15,000 8 Kalamboli (Navi Mumbai) Rail ICD Alliance 17.0 20,000 1,000 9 Sanehwal (Near Ludhiana) Rail ICD Freehold 60.0 220,000 4,000 10 Asaoti (Faridabad) Rail ICD Freehold 66.0 240,000 5,000 372 1,100,000 130,000 Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 11: Gateway Rail connects Mumbai and Gujarat ports to t he h interlands i n N orth India w ith i ts I CDs a t G urgaon, Ludhiana and Faridabad Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 12: GDPL’s D FCs a re l ocated a t M umbai, C hennai, Vizag and Kochi Source: Company, MOSL Gateway Distriparks March 2015 63 Exhibit 13: GDPL’s C FS v olume p osted 7% C AGR in t he l ast eight years (in ‘000 teu) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 14: Gateway Ra il v olumes c locked 4 6% C AGR i n t he last eight years (in ‘000 teu) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 15: GDPL r evenue p osted 1 7% CAGR i n t he l ast f ive years driven by rail operations (INR m) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 16: Though C FS re venue w as l argely stable, its s hare in overall revenues fell, led by higher contribution of rail (%) Source: Company, MOSL 174 171 252 248 215 230 219 223 209 201 224 331 324 304 333 334 343 340 - 100 200 300 400 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Thousands Mumbai Chennai Vizag Kochi Total 10 17 37 67 112 131 180 234 212 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 4,553 5,263 6,045 8,217 9,551 10,138 - 4,000 8,000 12,000 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 CFS Rail Cold chain Total 55.5 43.3 46.3 37.8 31.8 28.9 30.3 43.9 40.8 54.8 56.3 55.9 14.2 12.8 12.9 7.5 11.9 15.1 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 CFS Rail Cold chain Gateway Distriparks March 2015 64 Valuation and view n GDPL is a direct play on India’s EXIM growth and beneficiary of increasing containerization which will be boosted by DFCs completion. n Management’s focus on reinvesting in the core business along with upgrading to value-added services has ensured continual margin improvement. n Blackstone has 48-49% stake in Gateway Rail. As per the agreement, it has given notice to Gateway’s management for a mandatory IPO. n Key events to watch out are (a) EXIM growth, (b) DFCs completion timelines and (c) GST implementation. n Key risks include (a) delay in JNPT expansion, (b) delay in DFCs completion and (c) intense competition in CFS and rail segment. n We estimate overall EBITDA (adjusted for Snowman) CAGR in FY14-17E at 27%, driven by rail (32% CAGR) and CFS (20% CAGR). n We value Gateway Distriparks on SOTP-based fair value of INR535/sh (INR493/sh for core business on DCF basis, WACC: 11.4%, TGR: 5% and INR42/sh for Snowman, post 25% discount). n The stock trades at 17.5x FY17E EPS of INR23.7 and has a dividend yield of 2-3%. Initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Exhibit 17: Expect EBITDA to post 27% CAGR in FY14-17, adjusted for Snowman (INR m) 1,260 1,648 2,498 2,464 2,587 3,274 3,672 4,351 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 18: Expect RoE and RoCE to move towards 20-25% and above 5 10 15 20 25 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E RoE RoCE Source: Company, MOSL Gateway Distriparks March 2015 65 Exhibit 19: Gateway Distriparks DCF Valuation Summary Source: MOSL Gateway Distriparks March 2015 66 Financials and valuation Consolidated - Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total Income from Operations 5,166 6,025 8,215 9,541 10,128 10,975 11,901 14,044 Change (%) 14.3 16.6 36.3 16.1 6.2 8.4 8.4 18.0 Operating Expenses 3,029 3,395 4,544 5,745 6,029 6,256 6,783 8,005 % of Sales 58.6 56.3 55.3 60.2 59.5 57.0 57.0 57.0 Personnel Expenses 227 293 385 464 484 532 585 644 % of Sales 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.6 Other Expenses 650 690 788 867 1,028 913 860 1,045 % of Sales 12.6 11.4 9.6 9.1 10.2 8.3 7.2 7.4 Total Expenditure 3,906 4,377 5,717 7,077 7,541 7,700 8,228 9,694 % of Sales 75.6 72.7 69.6 74.2 74.5 70.2 69.1 69.0 EBITDA 1,260 1,648 2,498 2,464 2,587 3,274 3,672 4,351 Margin (%) 24.4 27.3 30.4 25.8 25.5 29.8 30.9 31.0 Depreciation 455 502 628 699 801 894 860 952 EBIT 805 1,145 1,870 1,766 1,786 2,380 2,812 3,399 Int. and Finance Charges 206 199 149 187 294 232 203 184 Other Income 125 95 144 155 171 122 134 173 PBT bef. EO Exp. 724 1,041 1,865 1,734 1,662 2,270 2,743 3,387 PBT 724 1,041 1,865 1,734 1,662 2,270 2,743 3,387 Tax Rate (%) -11.0 4.2 27.3 21.5 11.4 17.9 23.2 23.2 Add: Profit in Associate Company 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 30 35 Less: Mionrity Interest 12 30 36 93 114 33 19 24 Reported PAT 791 968 1,320 1,267 1,358 1,887 2,117 2,612 Adjusted PAT 791 968 1,320 1,267 1,358 1,831 2,087 2,578 Change (%) -0.6 22.3 36.5 -4.0 7.2 34.8 14.0 23.5 Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Equity Share Capital 1,079 1,080 1,083 1,085 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 Total Reserves 5,564 5,799 6,395 6,802 7,280 7,947 8,685 9,594 Net Worth 6,643 9,837 10,436 10,845 11,324 11,991 12,729 13,638 Minority Interest 625 610 663 806 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 Deferred Liabilities 528 613 602 1,012 1,016 1,016 1,016 1,016 Total Loans 2,099 1,327 1,270 2,520 3,241 2,241 2,041 1,841 Capital Employed 9,895 12,387 12,971 15,183 16,839 16,505 17,043 17,753 Gross Block 9,633 11,124 11,993 14,585 16,033 17,391 18,161 19,151 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,851 2,103 2,703 3,391 4,005 4,900 5,759 6,711 Net Fixed Assets 7,783 9,021 9,290 11,194 12,028 12,491 12,402 12,440 Goodwill on Consolidation 403 310 310 511 553 553 553 553 Capital WIP 517 380 565 565 760 322 652 762 Total Investments 150 130 0 1 340 340 340 340 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 2,003 3,004 3,320 2,852 3,481 3,111 3,483 4,221 Account Receivables 682 624 664 964 1,136 1,230 1,334 1,575 Cash and Bank Balance 795 1,377 1,600 927 1,149 584 743 988 Loans and Advances 527 1,003 1,056 961 1,196 1,296 1,406 1,659 Curr. Liability & Prov. 1,306 932 976 863 1,300 1,289 1,363 1,540 Account Payables 888 286 244 274 339 346 370 436 Other Current Liabilities 131 212 274 505 494 535 580 685 Provisions 287 434 458 84 467 408 413 419 Net Current Assets 697 2,072 2,344 1,989 2,181 1,822 2,120 2,681 Deferred Tax assets 340 473 462 924 976 976 976 976 Appl. of Funds 9,895 12,387 12,971 15,183 16,839 16,505 17,043 17,753 E: MOSL Estimates Gateway Distriparks March 2015 67 Financials and valuation Ratios Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Basic (INR) EPS 7.3 9.0 12.2 11.7 12.5 16.9 19.2 23.7 Cash EPS 11.6 13.6 18.0 18.1 19.9 25.1 27.1 32.5 BV/Share 61.6 91.1 96.4 100.0 104.3 110.4 117.2 125.6 DPS 3.5 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 9.6 10.8 13.4 Payout (%) 55.8 78.1 57.2 69.6 65.5 64.7 65.1 65.2 Valuation (x) P/E 32.8 24.3 21.3 17.3 Cash P/E 20.6 16.3 15.1 12.6 P/BV 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 EV/Sales 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.2 EV/EBITDA 18.0 14.1 12.5 10.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.3 Return Ratios (%) RoE 12.3 11.7 13.0 11.9 12.3 15.7 16.9 19.6 RoCE 10.9 12.5 17.6 15.3 14.0 17.4 20.3 23.6 Working Cap. Turnover (Days) -7 42 33 41 37 41 42 44 Leverage Ratio (x) Debt/Equity 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E OP/(Loss) before Tax 724 1,041 1,865 1,734 1,662 2,270 2,743 3,387 Depreciation 455 505 628 699 801 894 860 952 Interest & Finance Charges 163 115 29 46 179 110 70 11 Direct Taxes Paid -164 -230 -436 -285 -405 -406 -637 -786 (Inc)/Dec in WC 396 -1,169 -84 -264 -133 -206 -139 -317 CF from Operations 1,574 262 2,001 1,930 2,105 2,663 2,897 3,248 Others 54 73 71 3 -7 0 0 0 CF from Operating incl EO 1,628 335 2,073 1,933 2,098 2,663 2,897 3,248 (inc)/dec in FA -1,009 -1,631 -1,116 -2,383 -1,964 -920 -1,100 -1,100 (Pur)/Sale of Investments 85 23 147 0 -340 0 0 0 Others 41 636 60 -77 519 122 134 173 CF from Investments -883 -971 -909 -2,460 -1,785 -798 -966 -927 Issue of Shares 36 0 28 22 10 0 0 0 (Inc)/Dec in Debt 61 -947 -79 1,240 675 -1,000 -200 -200 Interest Paid -200 -185 -135 -148 -269 -232 -203 -184 Dividend Paid -375 -629 -648 -1,084 -434 -1,220 -1,379 -1,703 Others -64 2,980 -107 -176 -74 23 11 10 CF from Fin. Activity -543 1,219 -940 -146 -92 -2,430 -1,771 -2,077 Inc/Dec of Cash 202 582 223 -673 222 -565 159 244 Opening Balance 593 795 1,377 1,600 927 1,149 584 743 Closing Balance 795 1,377 1,600 927 1,149 584 743 988 Atul Mehra ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5417 March 2015 Update | Sector: Logistics Blue Dart Express CMP: INR7,053 Not Rated Market leader with commanding premium Riding on high-growth e-commerce potential n Blue D art Express (BDE) i s I ndia's l argest p ackage d istribution c ompany, w ith a presence in over 33,739 locations and 220 c ountries worldwide. Its market share in organized Air Express is 52% and in organized Surface Express at 14.5%. n Blue Dart Aviation is India's first and only scheduled cargo airline — acquiring a new licence to operate a cargo airline is a significant entry barrier. n BDE’s g rowth d rivers i nclude ( a) h igh g rowth e-commerce (currently ~ 10% o f revenue), (b) GST implementation and (c) higher GDP trajectory. Leader in organized Air Express business; margins ahead of competitors n Indian air cargo business has ~500 operators, of which ~75 operate on a pan India basis. However, a large market share is only with few large players like BDE, Aramex, First Flight, DTDC, Overnight Express, Safex and GATI. n BDE is the market leader with 52% share and is able to command 25-30% premium compared to competitors due to (a) is the sole player with a licence to operate scheduled cargo planes and (b) ability to provide timely services, against competitors dependence on commercial airlines. n The Air Express industry is likely to witness 12.5% CAGR over FY14-16, and we believe that BDE would be a key beneficiary, being the market leader. E-commerce boom to drive long term growth n BDE is well placed to significantly benefit from the growing e-commerce business in India, particularly in sub-2kg packages. n E-commerce players’ in-house logistics capabilities are limited to large cities, and for Tier2/3 cities, they depend on 3PL players like BDE. n E-tailing is expected to be a huge volume driver, given underlying growth: Ø Knight Frank India predicts 64% annual growth through 2019 to INR840b in e-tailing versus 11% growth in traditional retailing. Ø 5% penetration of online retailing in India (versus ~10% in the US, 6% in China and 10% in Korea) would mean an opportunity size of USD50b in the next 10 years. Strong parentage, strengthening surface capabilities n BDE gets competitive advantage from the global reach and practices of its parent, DHL (75% stake), world’s largest logistics player with USD72b revenue. DHL is dominant in its home market (Europe, 41% share) and in Asia Pacific (40% share). n BDE has strengthened its ground express capabilities with current 20% revenue contribution and 14.5% market share in the organized space. n We expect 15-20% growth in the Surface Express business, against 8-10% growth in the Air Express segment, led by an improvement in road infrastructure and a gradual shift in favor of organized players from unorganized ones. BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg BDE IN Equity Shares (m) 23.8 52-Week Range (INR) 7850/3070 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 3/40/72 M.Cap. (INR b) 167.6 M.Cap. (USD b) 2.7 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 42/9 Free float (%) 25.0 Financial Snapshot (INR b) Y/E Mar 2013 2014 2015 Sales 21.7 19.4 21.3 EBITDA 2.7 1.7 2.1 NP 1.9 1.2 1.5 EPS (INR) 80.3 50.9 63.9 EPS Gr (%) 55.3 -36.5 25.5 BV/Sh (INR) 277.7 270.6 321.1 RoE (%) 29.2 18.8 21.8 RoCE (%) 41.4 28.3 32.7 P/E (x) 87.9 138.5 110.3 P/BV (x) 25.4 26.1 22.0 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 75.0 75.0 75.0 DII 5.7 5.9 7.1 FII 7.9 7.6 6.5 Others 11.4 11.5 11.4 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) 1,300 3,300 5,300 7,300 9,300 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Blue Dart Exp. Sensex - Rebased Blue Dart Express March 2015 69 Company description n Blue Dart Express (BDE) is India's largest package distribution company, with a presence in over 33,739 locations domestically and 220 countries worldwide. It has a market share of 49% in the organized air express business and 13% in the organized surface express business. Express delivery services are used for various products, including documents like letters, applications, cheque books, credit cards, trade papers and non-documents like electronic products, machine spare parts, trade samples, equipments and e-commerce parcels. n BDE began operations in 1983 as the first domestic and international onboard courier service provider in India. In 1987, it tied up with Fed-Ex, giving it a strong foothold in international markets. In 2005, BDE parted ways with Fed-Ex and partnered with DHL, which bought out the original promoters and acquired 81% stake in the company. n BDE's parent, DHL Express, is a division of Deutsche Post DHL and is the world's largest logistics company. DHL is the global market leader in sea and air mail. It has its headquarters in Bonn, Germany, employs 467,088 people and is present in over 220 countries and territories worldwide. Deutsche Post DHL reported a revenue of ~USD72b in 2012. The current Managing Director of BDE is Mr Anil Khanna, who has over 32 years of experience, more than 20 years of which are with BDE. n Air Express contributes ~80% of BDE's revenue. Surface Express is a relatively new business for the company and currently contributes ~20%. Institutional clients account for 94% of BDE's revenue, with the balance 6% from retail clients. Exhibit 1: Revenue composition (%) Mode of transport Buyer profile Promoters and management n BDE's parent, DHL Express is a division of Deutsche Post DHL, and is the world's largest logistics company. DHL is the global market leader in sea and air mail. It has its headquarters in Bonn, Germany, employs 467,088 people, and is present in over 220 countries and territories worldwide. Deutsche Post DHL reported revenue of ~USD72b in 2012. n The current Managing Director of BDE is Mr Anil Khanna, who has over 32 years of experience, more than 20 years of which are with BDE. Air Express, 80% Surface Express, 20% Institutional, 94% Retail, 6% Blue Dart Express March 2015 70 Story in charts Exhibit 2: Market leader in Air Express industry Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 3: Organized Air Express market growth trend Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 4: Market share in Surface Express industry Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 5: Organized Surface Express market growth trend Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 6: Global logistic companies’ revenue (USD b) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 7: DHL - market leader in Europe Source: Company, MOSL Blue Dart, 49% Fedex, 14% First Flight, 12% Others, 25 % 20,400 23,400 26,500 29,900 33,600 18.7% 14.7% 13.2% 12.8% 12.4% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E Organized Air Express Sector Size (INR m) Gati, 26% Safex, 27% Blue Dart, 13% Others, 32% 24,000 28,700 34,200 40,600 48,300 18.7% 19.6% 19.2% 18.7% 19.0% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E Organized Surface Express Sector Size (INR m) YoY Growth 71.8 54.1 45.0 Deutsche Post (DHL)United Parcel Service(UPS) Fed-Ex Deutsche Post (DHL), 41% United Parcel Service (UPS), 23% Fed-Ex, 10% TNT, 1 4% Blue Dart Express March 2015 71 Story in charts Exhibit 8: DHL - market leader in Asia Pacific Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 9: Express industry market share in US Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 10: BDE’s revenue breakup Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 11: BDE’s buyer profile Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 12: Online retail penetration abysmally low in India (%) Source: Company, MOSL Deutsche Post (DHL), 40% United Parcel Service (UPS), 10% Fed-Ex, 21% EMS, 14% Deutsche Post (DHL), 16% United Parcel Service (UPS), 30% Fed-Ex, 50% TNT, 1% Air Express, 80% Surface Express, 20% Institutional, 94% Retail, 6% 0.3 6.0 10.0 10.0 India China Korea US Blue Dart Express March 2015 72 Financials and valuations (Consolidated) Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 FY13 (15M) FY14 Service Charges & Op. Inc. 9,767 9,075 11,499 14,954 21,717 19,383 Total Expenditure 8,509 8,032 9,952 13,155 19,029 17,642 % of Sales 87.1 88.5 86.5 88.0 87.6 91.0 EBITDA 1,258 1,043 1,547 1,799 2,688 1,741 Margin (%) 12.9 11.5 13.5 12.0 12.4 9.0 Depreciation 168 179 194 218 347 273 EBIT 1,090 864 1,353 1,581 2,341 1,468 Int. and Finance Charges 5 6 0 0 0 0 Other Income - Rec. 109 77 54 217 400 377 PBT after EO Exp. 1,194 936 1,407 1,798 2,741 1,845 Current Tax 398 317 465 570 868 608 Deferred Tax 19 9 -4 1 -34 27 Tax Rate (%) 34.9 34.8 32.7 31.7 30.4 34.4 Reported PAT 778 610 947 1,228 1,907 1,210 PAT Adj for EO items 778 610 947 1,228 1,907 1,210 Change (%) 9.2 -21.5 55.2 29.7 55.3 -36.5 Margin (%) 8.0 6.7 8.2 8.2 8.8 6.2 Net Profit 780 612 947 1,242 1,933 1,226 Balance Sheet Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 FY13 (15M) FY14 Equity Share Capital 238 238 238 238 238 238 Total Reserves 3,710 4,294 5,213 6,400 6,362 6,192 Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Worth 3,947 4,531 5,451 6,637 6,599 6,430 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deferred Liabilities 178 185 181 182 148 175 Total Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Employed 4,126 4,717 5,632 6,819 6,747 6,604 Gross Block 2,877 3,024 3,275 3,952 3,967 4,238 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,135 1,300 1,438 1,621 1,761 1,957 Net Fixed Assets 1,742 1,725 1,837 2,332 2,206 2,281 Capital WIP 89 171 267 29 123 85 Total Investments 711 1,052 969 739 228 243 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 2,566 2,849 3,892 5,340 7,951 6,794 Inventory 22 20 22 26 24 27 Account Receivables 1,154 1,259 1,533 1,890 2,272 2,667 Cash and Bank Balance 487 260 354 401 2,417 1,064 Loans and Advances 902 1,309 1,984 3,023 3,239 3,035 Curr. Liability & Prov. 982 1,079 1,334 1,620 3,760 2,798 Account Payables 491 763 968 538 729 1,074 Other Current Liabilities 356 216 250 1,023 1,007 1,171 Provisions 135 100 116 59 2,025 553 Net Current Assets 1,584 1,770 2,559 3,720 4,190 3,996 Appl. of Funds 4,126 4,717 5,632 6,819 6,747 6,604 E: MOSL Estimates Blue Dart Express March 2015 73 Financials and valuations (Consolidated) Ratios Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 FY13 (15M) FY14 Basic (INR) * EPS 32.7 25.7 39.8 51.7 80.3 50.9 Cash EPS 39.8 33.2 48.0 60.8 94.9 62.4 BV/Share 166.1 190.7 229.4 279.3 277.7 270.6 DPS 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 70.9 49.9 Payout (%) 3.6 4.5 2.9 4.5 103.4 115.3 Valuation (x) * P/E 215.5 274.7 177.0 136.5 87.9 138.5 Cash P/E 177.3 212.3 146.9 115.9 74.3 113.0 P/BV 42.5 37.0 30.7 25.2 25.4 26.1 EV/Sales 17.1 18.4 14.5 11.2 7.6 8.6 EV/EBITDA 132.9 160.4 108.1 93.0 61.4 95.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 Return Ratios (%) RoE 21.8 14.4 19.0 20.5 29.2 18.8 RoCE 33.6 22.2 28.2 29.8 41.4 28.3 Working Capital Ratios Asset Turnover (x) 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.2 2.9 Inventory (Days) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 Debtor (Days) 43 51 49 46 38 50 Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 2.1 2.4 Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 FY13 (15M) FY14 NP / (Loss) Before Tax and EO Items 1,194 936 1,407 1,798 2,741 1,845 Depreciation 168 179 194 218 347 273 Interest & Finance Charges -22 -11 -8 -153 -280 -283 Direct Taxes Paid 427 307 480 598 882 612 (Inc)/Dec in WC -305 -363 -741 -128 -167 94 CF from Operations 608 434 372 1,137 1,760 1,317 Others -54 -52 5 -67 65 -116 CF from Operating incl EO 555 382 377 1,070 1,825 1,201 (inc)/dec in FA -316 -285 -379 -518 -418 -272 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -18 0 -9,852 -10,648 -21,889 -19,613 Others -15 -291 9,976 10,172 22,552 20,270 CF from Investments -349 -575 -255 -994 246 385 (Inc)/Dec in Debt -4 -4 -4 -3 -7 5 Interest Paid -5 -6 0 0 0 0 Dividend Paid -24 -24 -24 -24 -48 -2,943 CF from Fin. Activity -33 -34 -28 -27 -55 -2,938 Inc/Dec of Cash 173 -227 94 50 2,016 -1,352 Add: Beginning Balance 314 487 260 351 400 2,417 Closing Balance 487 260 354 401 2,417 1,064 Gati Ltd March 2014 74 MNC practices + high growth e-tail and cold chain play Banking on execution, well placed to benefit from multiple triggers n Gati Ltd ( GATI) is well p oised t o g row i n i ts c ore multimodal logistics b usiness through the Gati-KWE joint v enture and benefit f rom i ts i nvestments i n h igh growth/high margin e-commerce logistics and cold chain businesses. n GATI Promoters’ willingness to sacrifice full control has aided GATI to not only get into h igh g rowth p hase but also a ble t o a dopt b est g lobal p ractices which a re critical for a new age complex business model. n Management guidance implies >20% revenue CAGR and ~40% EBITDA CAGR over FY14-18E. Clarity on FCCB issue will remove a big overhang on the stock. The stock trades at 25.6x FY17E EPS. Not rated. Expect economic revival to boost Gati-KWE revenue and margins n Gati-KWE (70:30), express logistics subsidiary contributes 85% to sales and 90% of EBITDA. Expect accelerated growth led by (1) likely economic revival, (2) market share gain from unorganized players with GST implementation and (3) increasing share of high margin supply chain management business. n Gati-KWE has an all-India reach with almost 100% India coverage and leadership position in pharma, apparel, FMCG and auto sectors. n JV with KWE offered GATI capital infusion and insights into global practices and processes. KWE also owns 5% in GATI directly. E-commerce logistics to witness hyper growth n Management expects e-commerce business to record 100% annual growth in the next 2-3 years led by (1) fast growing e-tailing business with higher internet penetration, (2) mainly from Tier 2/3 cities and (3) more so in >5kg categories. We believe this is in-line with the growth witnessed by other etailing logistics companies. n Company plans to strengthen its delivery capability from current 30,000 (15,000 a year ago) to >40,000 deliveries per day by end-FY15. n GATI’s e-commerce division is well poised to benefit by leveraging KWE’s network (16,500 pin codes, 667 of 671 districts), tie-ups with all large ecommerce players and service offerings like cash on delivery (COD), packing, reverse logistics, e-fulfillment, with >500 bikers. Cold chain expansion on track to capture opportunity n GATI plans to set up 10 large cold chain warehouses and expand its fleet size from 200 to 375. Gati is targeting revenue of INR2.2b by 2017 and expects the business model shift from pure transportation to integrated services will EBITDA margin from current 10-13% to beyond 20%. n GATI’s cold chain division, Gati Kausar, offers transport services in healthcare, meat and poultry, bio-pharma, frozen and fresh produce, dairy products, organized retail and quick service restaurants sectors. BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg GTIC IN Equity Shares (m) 87.3 52-Week Range (INR) 341/61 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -7/53/241 M.Cap. (INR b) 20.9 M.Cap. (USD b) 0.3 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 346/2020 Free float (%) 58.6 Financial Snapshot (INR b) Y/E Mar 2012 2013 2014 Sales 11.9 12.7 11.2 EBITDA 0.8 0.8 0.8 NP 0.4 0.1 0.2 EPS (INR) 4.8 1.0 2.7 EPS Gr. (%) 192.5 -78.2 156.4 BV/Sh. (INR) 47.6 90.9 88.6 RoE (%) 11.7 1.5 3.0 RoCE (%) 17.7 6.9 5.8 P/E (x) 0.0 0.0 89.4 P/BV (x) 0.0 0.0 2.7 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 41.4 38.1 33.9 DII 0.2 0.2 0.2 FII 8.6 8.1 0.1 Others 49.8 53.6 65.8 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) 60 140 220 300 380 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Gati Sensex - Rebased March 2015 Update | Sector: Logistics Gati CMP: INR240 Not Rated Gati Ltd March 2014 75 n GATI is investing INR2.2b in the business, which includes INR1.5b capital infusion (equity and non-convertible debentures) by Mandala Capital for a 30% stake. Valuation and View n Management guidance implies >20% revenue CAGR and ~40% EBITDA CAGR over FY14-18E. Clarity on FCCB issue will remove a big overhang on the stock. The stock trades at 25.6x FY17E EPS. Not rated. Gati Ltd March 2014 76 GDP growth, GST to boost to Gati-KWE volumes Lower fuel cost, better pricing to improve margins n Gati-KWE ( 70:30), e xpress l ogistics su bsidiary c ontributes 85% t o sa les a nd 90% o f EBITDA. Expect accelerated growth led by (1) likely economic revival, (2) market share gain f rom u norganized p layers w ith G ST i mplementation a nd ( 3) i ncreasing s hare o f high margin supply chain management business. n Gati-KWE h as an al l-India re ach w ith a lmost 1 00% I ndia c overage a nd l eadership position in pharma, apparel, FMCG and auto sectors. n JV w ith K WE o ffered G ATI capital i nfusion a nd i nsights i nto g lobal p ractices a nd processes. KWE also owns 5% in GATI directly. Gati-KWE is backbone of GATI’s current profitability Gati-KWE contributes to 85% of GATI’s overall revenue and 90% of EBITDA. GatiKWE has ~16% market share in the organized express cargo business in India, with key competitors like Safexpress, XPS of TCI, Spoton and AFL FedEx. It operates through a fleet of 4,500 vehicles and has a warehousing capacity of 2.6msqft. Gati-KWE delivers 6.5m packages every month and through various services like express surface cargo, premium air cargo, rail transport solutions, supply chain management and warehousing services on a pan-India basis. Its strong surface capabilities are seen from ~79% contribution from the road mode followed by 11% in air and 8% in rail. Higher economic activity driven by GDP growth and “Make in India” initiative are expected to accelerate the growth rate for this segment. We model Gati-KWE revenue to post 15% CAGR through FY18E and expect margins to expand from the current level of 11% to 13%, leading to EBITDA CAGR of 21%. Exhibit 1: Model revenue to clock 15% CAGR (INR b) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 2: Expect h igher s hare o f s upply c hain s olutions t o increase margins from current 11% to 13% Source: Company, MOSL Margin expansion is expected from (a) improving synergies with KWE, (b) Project Udaan. Gati has engaged IBM to identify cost saving opportunities (margin expansion) and has termed this initiative as “project Udaan”. It was launched in FY13 to focus on improving efficiency in services, optimize workforce productivity and maximize ales. 9 8 12 13 15 18 FY13 9MFY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.9 9.8 2.3 10.7 11.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 FY13 9MFY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Gati-KWE EBITDA (INRb) EBITDA Margin (%) Gati Ltd March 2014 77 KWE provides exposure to global practices On Feb 13, 2012, GATI entered into a joint venture with KWE (listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange), a leading global logistic service provider under the name ‘Gati-Kintetsu Express’ (Gati-KWE). KWE operates through more than 330 locations in 203 cities in 31 countries. In India, KWE also separately operates its freight forwarding business. Under the JV agreement, GATI holds 70% and 30% is held by KWE, with an investment of INR2.7b. Also, a large part of Gati’s Express Distribution and Supply Chain (EDSC) business was transferred to the JV through a business transfer agreement. As per the agreement, KWE can increase its stake in the JV to 49% from the third to fifth year of JV’s formation. The JV with KWE offered GATI capital infusion and also global practices and processes, and aided to improve its quality of operations. GATI and KWE’s teams also have annual exchange programs to learn the best practices. KWE owns 5% in GATI directly. Exhibit 3: GATI revenue b reak-up – Gati-KWE JV c ontributes to 70% of total revenue (% of total) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 4: High g rowth i ndustries c ontribute t o ma jority o f Gati-KWE revenue (%) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 5: Multimodal c apabilities w ith s urface mo de having the largest share Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 6: Balanced s hare o f re venue a cross t he c ountry, reflecting pan India capabilities of Gati-KWE Source: Company, MOSL GATI-KWE 70 Kausar 3 E-commerce 4 International 5 Fuel Station 13 Shipping Other 2 3 15% 14% 13% 13% 8% 6% 31% Industry - Wise Pharma IT Hardware Auto Ancillary Engineering Textiles FMCG Others 79% 8% 11% 2% Modes of Transport Surface Rail Air Others 24% 35% 10% 31% Geography South West East North Gati Ltd March 2014 78 E-commerce logistics to witness hyper growth GATI gears up to capture the opportunity n Management expects e-commerce business to record 100% annual growth in the next 2-3 years led by (1) fast growing e-tailing business, (2) mainly from Tier 2/3 cities and (3) more so in >5kg categories. We believe this is in-line with the growth witnessed by other e-tailing logistics companies. n Company plans to strengthen its delivery capability from current 30,000 (15,000 a year ago) to >40,000 deliveries per day by end-FY15. n GATI’s e -commerce d ivision is w ell p oised t o b enefit b y l everaging K WE’s n etwork (16,500 pin codes, 667 o f 671 d istricts), tie-ups with all large e-commerce players and service o fferings l ike c ash o n d elivery ( COD), p acking, r everse l ogistics, e-fulfillment, with >500 bikers. E-tailing logistics growing at rapid pace in India E-commerce business is still in the nascent stage in India and the current low internet penetration offers tremendous growth potential. Various industry estimates forecast e-commerce growth at >50% through 2020. We believe that while the e-commerce opportunity is huge, it is critical that the ecommerce companies’ (Flipkart, Amazon, Snapdeal etc) business models graduate to a self-sustaining/self-funding model for a long term longetivity. As per industry estimates, e-commerce logistics cost is ~10% of the merchandise value sold through the e-commerce route. GATI has an early mover advantage in e-tailing logistics GATI has been nimble footed in terms of resource allocation, technology adoption and ramping up capabilities (increase per day delivery capability from 15,000 to 30,000) to capture this opportunity. As on 3QFY15, Gati covered 5,300 pin codes directly and 10,000 pin codes at a premium and served COD at 13,000 pin codes. Rapid expansion is also evident from the fact that Gati has increased its headcount by 28% in the 9MFY15. The early mover advantage has placed GATI among the top five e-logistics players in India. Competitors include Blue Dart, Aramex, Ecomexpress etc. In less than three years, GATI is looking to earn >INR1.3b annualized revenue from this business, with medium term outlook of 100% annual growth. EBITDA margin is expected to move towards ~15% in the medium term. Its range of services include cash on delivery, packing, reverse logistics and efulfillment. GATI’s current e-logistics capability is to deliver 30,000 shipments per day through its synergies with Gati-KWE and last mile 500 bikers. It plans to expand in the near term to 1,000 bikers, 90 e-logistics centers and 19 EFCs (currently e-fulfillment centers – capex of ~INR20m per center). Its current three e-fulfilment centres are located at Delhi, Mumbai and Hyderabad, while another three planned EFC’s will be at Delhi, Ahmedabad and Jaipur. Gati Ltd March 2014 79 Exhibit 7: E-tailing deliveries per day – Plan to ramp-up delivery capacity to 40,000 per day by end FY15 Source: Company, MOSL GATI - beneficiary of e-tailing business model E-tailing in India is an evolving business and is gradually shifting towards >2kg items like white goods, furniture etc. GATI, given its surface transport capabilities at almost 15,000 pin codes, will be a beneficiary of e-tailing growth in tier 2/3 cities and increasing share of >2kg merchandise. Its current market share in >5kg merchandise is estimated at 50% and in >10kg is estimated at 75-80%. GATI services almost all e-tailers in India like Flipkart, Amazon, Myntra, Snapdeal etc and also includes television-based sellers. E-commerce logistics include distribution and also various value-added services such as cash on delivery, e-packaging, e-pick, e-fulfillment centers and returns to the origin (RTO). 5,258 6,419 7,267 7,935 8,800 8,677 9,516 9,179 10,161 10,500 12,968 11,967 15,258 13,903 15,167 30,000 to 40,000 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14… …Mar-15 Gati Ltd March 2014 80 Cold chain expansion on track to capture opportunities n GATI is i nvesting I NR2.2b i n t he b usiness, w hich i ncludes I NR1.5b c apital infusion (equity and non-convertible debentures) by Mandala Capital for a 30% stake. n GATI plans to set up 10 large cold chain warehouses and expand its fleet size from 200 to 375. Gati is targeting revenue of INR2.2b by 2017 and expects the business model shift from pure transportation to integrated services will EBITDA margin from current 10-13% to beyond 20%. n GATI’s c old c hain d ivision, G ati K ausar, o ffers t ransport s ervices in healthcare, m eat and& p oultry, b io-pharma, frozen a nd& f resh p roduce, d airy p roducts, o rganizsed retail and quick service restaurants sectors. Compelling opportunity in cold chain business Indian cold chain logistics industry’s size is estimated at ~INR150b, with an expected growth rate of 15% to 20% in the medium term to reach ~INR250b by FY18. Organized players have a huge growth opportunity in this space, given the 6-7% share in the cold chain warehousing segment, and 15-20% share in the temperature controlled transportation. Background: Cold chain l ogistics also k nown a s T emperature Controlled Logistics ( TCL) business includes (a) warehousing services to store at temperatures ranging from -25ºC to +20ºC and distribution through temperature controlled containerized trucks and cargo trains. Some o f t he k ey p roduct categories t ransported t hrough t his ro ute i nclude d airy, poultry/meat/seafood, ready-to-eat, chocolates, medicines, industrial products and fruit and vegetables. Existing c old c hain w arehousing c apacity i n I ndia i s es timated a t 3 0m tones a nd r eefer vehicles of ~7,000-8,000, with majority of the facilities in Uttar Pradesh (41%) and West Bengal (33%), followed by Punjab (6%), Gujarat and Bihar. 75% of the warehousing capacity is used by potatoes, ~2% for meat/seafood and the rest is for multi-purpose products. Gati Kausar investments to improve margins Gati Kausar is one of the larger players in the temperature controlled vehicle segment. However, EBITDA margin in reefer transportation is low at ~12-13% due to competition. But in cold chain warehouses, EBITDA margin is significantly higher as the high capex acts as an entry barrier. Hence, EBITDA margin is expected to improve from the current 12% to over 20%, once the warehouses are set up by Gati Kausar. Gati Kausar is investing INR2.2b in the business, including INR1.5b capital infusion (equity and non-convertible debentures) by Mandala Capital for a 30% stake. Mandala Capital has an option to exit the business through the IPO route during the five to six-year period of post investment. It plans to set up 10 large cold chain warehouses (initially at Ghaziabad and Gurgaon) and expand its fleet size from 200 to 375. These warehouses will be of Gati Ltd March 2014 81 varying capacity; smaller one will have a pallet capacity of 3,500 and the bigger ones 5,000 pallets. Management targets a revenue of INR2.2b by 2017. Upgradation from pure transportation to integrated services is expected to improve the EBITDA margin from current 10-13% to beyond 20%. Gati Kausar will have a debt-equity ratio of 1:2.5, which will reduce by 2020 to 1:1, and these warehouses will have a discounted payback period of around six years. Company, across the value chain, provides consolidation, packaging, fulfilment, cash on delivery, return to origin and the Last Mile services. The Last Mile delivery contributes the most significant amount, currently ~75-80% of GATI’s revenue from e-commerce. Government support makes economics better In FY12, the government had granted infrastructure status to the cold chain industry in India to curb post harvest losses. Further, it also allowed investment related deduction for computation of income tax up to 150% along with 5% concession on import duty, service tax exemption, excise duty exemption on several items of cold storage equipment. Gati Ltd March 2014 82 Company description Gati, established in 1989, a pioneer in express distribution services in India, is one of the largest multimodal logistics company in the country. It covers almost 100% of India with presence in 667 of 671 districts. It operates through a fleet of 4,500 transport vehicles and 200 reefer trucks. Gati has a strong market presence in the Asia Pacific region and Saarc countries, with offices in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Nepal. Its key business segments (consolidated basis) include express distribution, which includes Gati-KWE (JV with Japan-based Kintetsu World Express), Gati Kausar (cold chain), e-commerce business and international freight forwarding business. It has hived off the loss-making shipping division. The standalone Gati entity consists of ecommerce, freight forwarding and fuel stations. Gati operates through four large zonal offices, 16 hubs and 62 warehousing centers and also has a call center in Nagpur. Exhibit 8: Gati – key timelines Year Key Milestones 1989-95 - Introduced door to door service - Introduced cash on delivery - Expansion to SAARC - Received ISO Certification 1996-00 - Introduction of 24*7 customer convenient centre - Launch of Mechatronic Warehouses - Introduction of own Customized ERP GEMS 2001-06 - Launched India-centric distribution solutions and forayed into Asia Pacific region - Gati Millennium Express: First cargo train of Gati - Ventured in Cold Chain Logistics 2007-14 - Joint Venture with KWE Japan (divested 30% stake to KWE) - Ventured into E Commerce Logistics - Project Udaan: Business transformation exercise with IBM - Expansion of Cold Chain Vertical through warehouses - Creating Vision 2020 - Establishing e-Fulfillment centers for e-Commerce clients Source: Company, MOSL Management Mr Mahendra Agarwal - Founder & CEO: n Mr Agarwal is the driving force behind Gati’s journey into a major integrated logistics service provider and is a recipient of several awards. n He holds an Engineering Degree from Bangalore University and a Masters in Business Administration from Austin, USA. n Mr Agarwal is also the founder member of SCLG India (member, international board of advisors for SCLG Global), Managing Committee Member of Express Industry Council of India, elected member of CII Southern Region Council, member of CII Institute of Logistics Advisory Council & FICCI's Civil Aviation Committee. In Singapore, he is a Board member of Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry (SICCI). Gati Ltd March 2014 83 Mr Sanjeev Kumar Jain - Director (Finance) n Mr Jain, with over 25 years of experience, has varied industry expertise with business verticals like telecom, logistics and fertilizers. n Prior to Gati, Mr Jain worked as the CFO at AFL-FedEx Express Ltd, and at Tata Communication Ltd for over 10 years. He has played key roles in the M&A activities for the organization. n Mr Jain is a Masters in Commerce and is also a Fellow Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India. He has an extensive knowledge in the field of accounting, Audit, M&A and business restructuring and transformation. He is also well versed with company law, taxation and regulation. Mr Bablu Tewari - Chief Operating Officer, E-commerce and International Business n He joined Gati in 1995 as an Executive Trainee and has over 20 years of experience in the express distribution business and has proven his prowess in Business Operations, Sales, Customer Relationship Management and Branch Administration. n In the last two years as COO, he created a new vertical called Gati E-Connect and significantly augmented e-commerce business’ delivery capacity, amplified to tier 3 cities and remote locations, improved workforce collaboration and automated processes. n Mr Tewari holds a bachelor’s degree in Commerce from Calcutta University and is trained in Customer Relationship Management from the Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow. Exhibit 9: Gati – corporate structure Source: Company, MOSL Wholly Owned Subsidiaries Partly Owned S ubsidiaries Gati Limited (Consolidated) GATI - KWE (70%) Gati Limited (standalone) Gati Kausar (Cold Chain) Gati i Import Export (Trading) Zen Cargo Movers (CHA) Gati Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (Singapore) Surface Express Air Express Parcel Train Supply Chain Fuel Stations Freight Forwarding E- Commerce Subsidiary Service Offering Gati Ltd March 2014 84 Valuation and View Key Risks: FCCB Dilution On December 12, 2001 Gati had issued USD22.18m 22.18 zero coupon unsecured foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) of USD1,000 each. The conversion price was fixed at INR38.51/sh. As per the terms, the bonds are convertible from December 12, 2012 to November 13, 2016. Unless previously converted, the bonds will be redeemed at 132.8% of the principle amount on December 12, 2016 (implied YTM of 5.76% per annum). However, on Gati’s application to RBI (Reserve Bank of India) for seeking the permission to part repurchase the FCCB’s, RBI informed that it was not eligible to borrow under the automatic rout and the borrowing to be treated as a foreign debt. RBI also levied a fee of INR29.6m on Gati. RBI’s decision is challenged by Gati in Andhra Pradesh High Court and the matter is sub-juduce. In the meantime the bondholders have served notice to Gati for conversion and as the matter is subjudice no further action has been taken on the issue. Valuation and View n Gati Ltd (GATI) is well poised to grow in its core multimodal logistics business through the Gati-KWE joint venture and benefit from its investments in high growth/high margin e-commerce logistics and cold chain businesses. n GATI Promoters’ willingness to sacrifice full control has aided GATI to not only get into high growth phase but also able to adopt best global practices which are critical for a new age complex business model. n Gati’s focus to high growth e-commerce and cold chain logistics will provide the significant revenue and profit growth, while domestic economic improvement and GST implementation will accelerate Gati-KWE growth. n Management guidance implies >20% revenue CAGR and ~40% EBITDA CAGR over FY14-18E. Clarity on FCCB issue will remove a big overhang on the stock. The stock trades at 25.6x FY17E EPS. Not rated. Gati Ltd March 2014 85 Financials and valuation (Consolidated) Income Statement Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total Income from Operations 7,168 7,904 9,261 12,030 11,874 12,730 11,166 Change (%) 26.2 10.3 17.2 29.9 -1.3 7.2 -12.3 Operating Expenses 4,185 4,815 5,530 7,027 7,340 8,042 6,750 Personnel Expenses 757 857 915 1,130 1,136 1,236 1,027 Other Expenses 1,741 1,732 2,015 2,949 2,613 2,635 2,548 Total Expenditure 6,683 7,404 8,460 11,105 11,089 11,914 10,325 EBITDA 486 500 801 925 785 816 841 Margin (%) 6.8 6.3 8.7 7.7 6.6 6.4 7.5 Depreciation 186 264 272 255 369 248 221 EBIT 300 236 529 670 415 568 620 Interest Cost 134 384 478 516 619 437 325 Other Income 264 140 108 83 1,017 166 106 PBT bef. EO Exp. 430 -7 160 237 813 298 402 EO Items -151 -169 0 0 -145 -71 0 PBT after EO Exp. 279 -176 160 237 668 227 402 Current Tax 82 11 65 96 252 60 119 Tax Rate (%) 29.2 -6.0 40.8 40.6 37.8 26.3 29.5 Reported PAT 198 -187 95 141 415 167 283 Adjusted PAT 198 -187 95 141 415 91 234 Change (%) -7.8 -194.4 -150.8 48.5 194.5 -78.2 158.3 Margin (%) 2.8 -2.4 1.0 1.2 3.5 0.7 2.1 Consolidated - Balance Sheet Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Equity Share Capital 169 170 170 172 173 173 175 Total Reserves 2,805 2,532 2,726 2,800 3,950 7,697 7,554 Net Worth 2,974 2,702 2,896 2,972 4,123 7,870 7,728 Minority Interest 18 0 0 0 537 1,154 1,173 Deferred Liabilities 75 74 96 104 101 107 61 Total Loans 2,362 4,768 4,541 4,469 4,617 4,770 4,802 Capital Employed 5,429 7,543 7,533 7,545 9,378 13,901 13,764 Gross Block 3,244 5,372 5,268 5,429 5,426 5,641 5,716 Less: Accum. Deprn. 685 916 1,090 1,328 1,564 1,770 1,922 Net Fixed Assets 2,558 4,457 4,178 4,100 3,862 3,872 3,794 Goodwill on Consolidation 160 201 207 0 101 4,469 4,469 Capital WIP 630 360 355 365 157 245 387 Total Investments 204 204 202 202 202 202 548 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 2,796 3,023 3,532 5,085 6,630 6,817 6,576 Inventory 35 70 127 121 108 118 119 Account Receivables 1,212 1,213 1,497 1,903 1,890 2,203 2,414 Cash and Bank Balance 164 214 192 319 1,401 466 308 Loans and Advances 1,385 1,526 1,716 2,742 3,231 4,030 3,734 Curr. Liability & Prov. 922 703 943 2,207 1,573 1,703 2,009 Account Payables 188 258 325 714 670 663 732 Other Current Liabilities 348 218 262 942 219 446 437 Provisions 386 227 356 551 684 594 840 Net Current Assets 1,874 2,320 2,588 2,878 5,057 5,114 4,567 Misc Expenditure 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 Appl. of Funds 5,429 7,543 7,533 7,545 9,378 13,901 13,764 E: MOSL Estimates Gati Ltd March 2014 86 Financials and valuation Ratios Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Basic (INR) EPS (without dilution) 2.3 -2.2 1.1 1.6 4.8 1.0 2.7 Fully Diluted EPS 1.2 3.4 0.7 1.9 Cash EPS 4.5 0.9 4.3 4.6 9.1 3.9 5.2 BV/Share 35.1 31.8 34.0 34.6 47.6 90.9 88.6 DPS 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.6 1.8 Payout (%) 40.1 0.0 41.9 35.5 26.7 46.7 68.9 Valuation (x) P/E (without dilution) 89.4 P/E (with dilution) 124.9 Cash P/E 46.0 P/BV 2.7 EV/Sales 2.3 EV/EBITDA 30.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 FCF per share -17.8 -20.4 7.3 5.2 -14.6 -7.6 0.8 Return Ratios (%) RoE 8.4 -6.6 3.4 4.8 11.7 1.5 3.0 RoCE 12.6 5.9 8.6 10.1 17.7 6.9 5.8 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 Creditor (Days) 16 20 21 37 33 30 40 Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio 3.0 4.3 3.7 2.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 Interest Cover Ratio 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 Debt/Equity 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 OP/(Loss) before Tax 430 -7 160 237 776 303 402 Depreciation 186 264 272 254 370 248 221 Interest & Finance Charges 113 366 443 498 582 359 242 Direct Taxes Paid -67 -11 -43 -100 193 -51 -92 (Inc)/Dec in WC -973 -352 -351 -159 -2,118 -1,095 -444 CF from Operations -312 259 480 730 -198 -236 328 Others 30 17 39 20 -1,130 -24 -19 CF from Operating incl EO -282 276 519 751 -1,328 -259 309 (inc)/dec in FA -1,226 -2,004 100 -308 64 -398 -238 (Pur)/Sale of Investments 2 0 2 0 892 0 0 Others 19 90 61 37 -52 213 82 CF from Investments -1,205 -1,914 163 -270 905 -184 -156 Issue of Shares 0 0 1 37 1 0 24 (Inc)/Dec in Debt 460 2,406 -226 170 0 71 100 Interest Paid -134 -380 -478 -521 -619 -437 -325 Dividend Paid -68 -79 0 -39 -50 -125 -110 Others 910 -259 0 0 2,173 0 0 CF from Fin. Activity 1,168 1,688 -703 -353 1,505 -491 -311 Inc/Dec of Cash -318 50 -22 127 1,082 -935 -158 Opening Balance 482 164 214 192 319 1,401 466 Closing Balance 164 214 192 319 1,401 466 308 Harshad Borawake ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5432 March 2015 Update | Sector: Logistics Allcargo Logistics CMP: INR331 Not Rated Leading global LCL consolidator Strong balance sheet, expands capacities across businesses n Allcargo Logistics ( AGLL) is a le ading m ultinational lo gistics c ompany headquarterd in India, with synergistic businesses ranging from LCL (Less-ThanContainer-Load) c onsolidation, C FS a nd P roject & Engineering s olutions, including coastal Shipping. n Its international network pans over 200+ offices in 90+ countries, covering over 4,000 port pairs, thus giving it a global scale. n AGLL’s growth drivers include (a) growth in global trade, (b) growth in container trade in India, (c) revival in capex cycle in India, (d) domestic GDP growth and (e) GST implementation. Global leader in LCL freight forwarding n AGLL’s MTO (Multimodal Transport Operations) business contributes 85% of its revenue. n It is a global leader in LCL (Less-than-Container-Load) consolidation, with a presence in 90+ countries through 200+ owned offices and covering over 4,000 port pairs. Company operates in all major countries through its 100% subsidiary, Eculine. n AGLL’s growth strategy includes (a) expand in high growth markets like Far East and China and (b) tactical acquisitions/buyout of local partners/strategic alliances where Eculine does not have a significant presence. Leading CFS operator in India n AGLL has a pan-India presence in CFS business, with its CFSs at JNPT, Chennai and Mundra and an overall land bank of over 200 acres. n These ports have proximity to industrial hubs which carry majority of the container volume. The undeveloped land bank available with the company can be used to increase capacity as container volume picks up in India. Strong balance sheet, well placed to capture growth opportunities n With a net debt-equity of 0.26x, AGLL is well placed to implement its strategy of tactical acquisitions and capacity growth. n Global presence offers its scale for LCL business, while domestic economic growth and EXIM growth augurs well for its CFS business. Infrastructure projects revival will drive utilization for company’s Project and Engineering Solutions business. Valuation and View n The stock trades at 27.9x FY14A EPS of INR27.4. Not rated. BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg AGLL IN Equity Shares (m) 126.1 52-Week Range (INR) 358/133 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -2/26/77 M.Cap. (INR b) 41.7 M.Cap. (USD b) 0.7 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 30/105 Free float (%) 30.1 Financial Snapshot (INR Million) Y/E Mar 2012 2013 2014 Net Sales 42.8 39.3 48.6 EBITDA 5.2 3.6 4.0 Adj PAT 2.8 1.7 1.5 EPS (INR) 21.9 13.5 11.8 Gr. (%) 71.9 -38.4 -12.0 BV/Sh. (INR) 114.4 125.8 142.3 RoE (%) 21.3 11.0 8.8 RoCE (%) 22.8 12.2 10.1 P/E (x) - - 27.9 P/BV (x) - - 2.3 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 69.9 69.9 72.1 DII 0.0 0.0 0.2 FII 6.2 13.0 11.9 Others 23.9 17.1 15.9 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) Allcargo Logistics March 2015 88 Company description Incorporated in 1993 by promoter Mr S K Shetty, Allcargo Logistics (a part of Avvashya Group) started operations as cargo handler at Mumbai port. Allcargo is a leading company providing integrated logistics solutions. Its key business divisions are global Multimodal Transport Operations (NVOCC, LCL and FCL), domestic CFS/ICD operations, Project and Engineering Solutions (Project Logistics & Equipment Hiring Solutions), Ship Owning and Chartering along with 3PL and warehousing services. It has a strong domestic and international network of 200 offices, agents and franchisees in 90 countries, covering more than 4,000 port pairs. Exhibit 1: Allcargo’s key business divisions Source: Company, MOSL Key management Mr S hashi Ki ran S hetty, Chairman & Ma naging D irector: Mr Shashi Kiran Shetty founded Allcargo Ltd in 1993. Previously, he had 15 years of experience with Intermodal Transport and Trading Systems Pvt Ltd, Mumbai and Forbes Gokak, a Tata Group company. He was a board member of Mumbai Port Trust and also was the co-Chairman of the Transport and Logistics Committee of The Indian Merchant Chambers. He was the Vice President of the Association of Multimodal Transport Operators of India. Allcargo Logistics March 2015 89 Exhibit 2: MTO operations contribute >85% of Allcargo’s business (INR b) *Coastal shipping included in P&E division Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 3: Allcargo is present across major container ports of India Source: Company, MOSL 3 3 4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 FY12 FY13 FY14 MTO CFS Project & Engg. Solutions Total Allcargo Logistics March 2015 90 Financials and valuation Consolidated - Income Statement Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total Income from Operations 23,141 20,609 28,633 42,804 39,263 48,594 Change (%) 43.4 -10.9 38.9 49.5 -8.3 23.8 Operational Cost 15,883 12,991 18,734 28,645 27,194 34,281 Personnel Expenses 3,305 3,466 3,973 6,095 5,634 7,276 Other Expenses 1,786 1,995 3,210 2,824 2,835 3,078 Total Expenditure 20,974 18,452 25,916 37,564 35,663 44,635 EBITDA 2,167 2,158 2,717 5,240 3,600 3,959 Margin (%) 9.4 10.5 9.5 12.2 9.2 8.1 Depreciation 447 545 550 1,337 1,474 1,755 EBIT 1,720 1,613 2,167 3,903 2,127 2,205 Int. and Finance Charges 249 232 195 644 453 609 Other Income 106 286 266 452 662 365 PBT 1,578 1,667 2,239 3,710 2,335 1,960 Tax 362 260 480 734 512 416 Tax Rate (%) 22.9 15.6 21.4 19.8 21.9 21.2 PAT 1,216 1,407 1,759 2,977 1,823 1,544 Less: Mionrity Interest 139 108 100 132 126 51 Reported PAT 1,077 1,300 1,659 2,845 1,697 1,493 Change (%) 40.7 20.7 27.7 71.5 -40.3 -12.0 Margin (%) 4.7 6.3 5.8 6.6 4.3 3.1 Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 FY12 FY13 FY14 Equity Share Capital 224 250 261 260 252 252 Total Reserves 5,873 9,561 11,551 14,638 15,604 17,679 Net Worth 6,097 9,811 11,812 14,899 15,857 17,931 Minority Interest 115 135 263 311 433 463 Deferred Liabilities 205 284 519 924 1,172 1,284 Total Loans 3,440 2,044 3,778 7,653 7,267 9,921 Capital Employed 9,857 12,274 16,371 23,788 24,728 29,599 Gross Block 5,072 6,813 10,429 16,358 18,850 20,869 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,460 2,053 2,338 3,801 5,163 7,094 Net Fixed Assets 3,612 4,761 8,091 12,557 13,687 13,775 Goodwill on Consolidation 2,013 2,428 3,391 4,580 4,602 8,710 Capital WIP 741 750 560 854 139 77 Total Investments 828 1,668 1,319 1,071 1,859 1,902 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 5,673 5,463 7,273 9,369 9,641 11,834 Inventory 20 27 70 125 111 114 Account Receivables 2,975 2,354 2,528 3,576 3,825 5,715 Cash and Bank Balance 1,012 916 1,430 1,341 1,382 1,647 Loans and Advances 1,667 2,166 3,245 4,327 4,324 4,358 Curr. Liability & Prov. 3,091 2,900 4,397 4,815 5,429 6,938 Account Payables 1,764 1,409 2,564 3,338 3,536 4,709 Other Current Liabilities 1,190 1,405 1,289 1,094 1,275 1,627 Provisions 138 87 543 383 619 602 Net Current Assets 2,583 2,563 2,876 4,555 4,212 4,897 Deferred Tax assets 78 105 111 171 228 238 Misc Expenditure 3 0 23 0 0 0 Appl. of Funds 9,857 12,274 16,371 23,788 24,728 29,599 Allcargo Logistics March 2015 91 Financials and valuation Ratios Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 FY12 FY13 FY14 Basic (INR) EPS 9.6 10.4 12.7 21.9 13.5 11.8 Cash EPS 13.6 14.8 16.9 32.1 25.2 25.8 BV/Share 54.5 78.6 90.5 114.4 125.8 142.3 DPS 0.5 1.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 Payout (%) 6.1 11.2 27.6 8.0 13.0 14.8 Valuation (x) P/E 27.9 Cash P/E 12.8 P/BV 2.3 EV/Sales 1.0 EV/EBITDA 12.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 Return Ratios (%) RoE 19.9 16.3 15.3 21.3 11.0 8.8 RoCE 23.6 17.8 17.7 22.8 12.2 10.1 Working Capital Ratios Asset Turnover (x) 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 Leverage Ratio (x) Debt/Equity 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Y/E March CY08 CY09 CY10 FY12 FY13 FY14 OP/(Loss) before Tax 1,609 1,695 2,239 3,710 2,335 1,960 Depreciation 447 545 550 1,337 1,474 1,755 Interest & Finance Charges 219 193 117 551 370 532 Direct Taxes Paid -312 -424 -653 -930 -634 -373 (Inc)/Dec in WC -1,069 10 -376 -1,353 -22 -414 CF from Operations 894 2,019 1,877 3,315 3,522 3,461 Others -18 -158 88 153 -278 -353 CF from Operating incl EO 876 1,860 1,966 3,468 3,244 3,107 (inc)/dec in FA -1,742 -1,707 -4,425 -5,991 -1,896 -1,290 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -745 -636 380 1,014 52 -237 Others -138 41 232 -414 88 -2,665 CF from Investments -2,625 -2,302 -3,813 -5,391 -1,757 -4,192 Issue of Shares 297 1,120 1,047 0 0 0 (Inc)/Dec in Debt 2,177 -386 1,707 3,009 -563 1,959 Interest Paid -249 -232 -195 -556 -538 -586 Dividend Paid -67 -118 -103 -530 -74 -222 Others -28 -38 -96 -90 -271 198 CF from Fin. Activity 2,130 346 2,361 1,834 -1,446 1,350 Inc/Dec of Cash 381 -96 513 -89 41 265 Opening Balance 631 1,012 916 1,430 1,341 1,382 Closing Balance 1,012 916 1,430 1,341 1,382 1,647 March 2015 92 March 2015 Update | Sector: Logistics Transport Corporation of India CMP: INR268 Not Rated Express Cargo, Supply Chain business to drive growth DFCs/diamond quadrilateral, GST seen as key triggers Transport Corporation of India Ltd (TRPC), established in 1958, is a leading multimodal logistics p layers w ith s ervices ra nging f rom b asic t ransportation t o high-end s upply chain management. It operates 1,300 owned vehicles and 7,500+ managed vehicle fleet to t ransport 2 5% by v alue o f I ndia’s G DP. I ts o perations cover a lmost 100% o f t he Indian economy, with 17,000 domestic and overseas locations. Key business divisions are Freight Transport, Express Cargo Services, Supply Chain Solutions and Seaways. Similar to other logistics companies, we believe TRPC will be a key beneficiary of (a) economic growth, (b) DFCs/diamond quadrilateral and (c) GST. Freight Transport: GDP r evival t o b enefit, b ut c ompetition to k eep margins low n Freight division contributes to 37% in revenue 11% in EBITDA for TRPC. Being highly unorganized with low entry barrier, it is a low margin business (3-5%) with low growth. n Company is focused on moving away from this basic business which is reflected in reduction in revenue contribution from 52% in FY09 to 36% in FY14, with a target to reduce it further to 25%. n Revenue drivers include GDP growth and JV with Concor, while margin triggers include lower diesel price and infrastructure sector spending that could revive the high-margin large cargo movement. Express Cargo Services: margins better, growth high; large scale gives competitive and cost advantage n Express cargo services division contributes 30% in revenue and 29% in EBITDA, with expected growth of 10-15% and higher margins than freight. n TRPC’s scale and multimodal capability through tie-ups in domestic and international locations provides competitive advantage and higher margins. n While air cargo contributes to 10%, key goods handled include electronics, pharmaceuticals, white goods and silk sarees among others. n While e-tailing volume contribution is lower, it could be a key volume driver in future, given its underlying growth. Supply Chain Solutions: nascent, complex, technology intensive but high margin n Supply chain solutions business (3PL) is still at a nascent stage in India, with growth rates of 20-30% and contributes 5% of TRPC’s revenue. n Players with investment in technology, deeper understanding of various businesses, skilled manpower can witness high entry barriers and margins in BSE Sensex S&P CNX 29,449 8,938 Stock Info Bloomberg TRPC IN Equity Shares (m) 73.0 52-Week Range (INR) 299/92 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 3/21/130 M.Cap. (INR b) 19.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 0.3 Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000 43/216 Free float (%) 30.9 Financial Snapshot (INR Million) Y/E Mar 2012 2013 2014 Net Sales 19.5 21.3 22.3 EBITDA 1.6 1.8 1.7 Adj PAT 0.6 0.7 0.7 EPS (INR) 8.2 9.5 9.8 Gr. (%) 8.6 16.6 2.8 BV/Sh. (INR) 52.0 60.0 67.3 RoE (%) 16.9 17.1 15.4 RoCE (%) 17.9 18.0 16.3 P/E (x) - - 27.3 P/BV (x) - - 4.0 Shareholding pattern (%) As on Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13 Promoter 69.1 69.1 69.4 DII 0.8 1.2 0.1 FII 2.3 1.9 4.9 Others 27.9 27.9 25.7 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) 100 150 200 250 300 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Transport Corp. Sensex - Rebased TCI March 2015 93 this segment. n Automobile sector contributes to 75% of this business followed by ~10% by FMCG and also cold chain. GST will be the key trigger for this business. Shipping: steady contributor, high entry barriers n TRPC operates ships and also lucrative services to Andaman and Nicobar and neighbouring countries. n While there is scope to increase utilization levels on the current route, company plans to diversify on the west coast routes of India. Exhibit 1: TRPC’s revenue clocked 13% C AGR in t he l ast five years, driven b y Supply Chain Solutions CAGR at 31% Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 2: Increasing revenue share of high-margin Express Cargo, Supply Chain divisions Source: Company, MOSL 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 3 4 2 2 5 5 6 6 3 5 6 7 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 13 14 15 19 20 22 23 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Freight Division XPS Division Supply Chain Solutions Seaways Division Others Total 53 51 48 44 40 37 37 26 26 25 25 25 26 27 15 15 19 26 30 32 31 5 2 6 2 4 3 42 5 5 5 0 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Freight Division XPS Division Supply Chain Solutions Seaways Division Others TCI March 2015 94 Exhibit 3: TRPC’s EBITDA margin trend - Supply Chain b usiness h as the h ighest ma rgins among the largest business segments (%) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 4: Snapshot of TRPC’s key businesses Freight Division XPS Division Supply Chain Solutions Division Seaways Division Industry Scenario Mature, Fragmented, Low barriers to entry, low cost Growth, niche, high entry barriers, cost efficiency Nascent, knowledge-based, very high barriers, single window Growth, high entry barriers, low cost Industry Growth 5-8% 8-12% 20-30% 10-15% % of Total Revenue (FY 14-15 H1) 36% (392 cr.) 30% (320 cr.) 28% (307 cr.) 5% (53 cr.) TRPC EBITDA Margin 3-5% 8-10% 10-12% 11-15% TRPC Growth Pattern 0-5% 8-12% 20-30% 10-15% RoCE (5-yr Average) 13.3% 43.6% 24.6% 14.7% RoCE (10-yr Average) 17.0% 39.8% 22.9% 18.2% Source: Indutry, , Company, MOSL Management profile Mr S M Datta – Chairman: Mr Datta has more than 51 years of experience in the engineering and technology sector. Previously he served as the Chairman of Hindustan Lever and all Unilever group companies in India and Nepal during 1990- 1996. Mr Datta holds the following positions: Director on the Boards of Castrol India, Philips Electronics India, IL&FS Investment Manager, BOC India, Zodiac Clothing Company. A Chartered Engineer, he is also associated with various management and research institutes both in India and abroad. Mr D P Agarwal - Vice C hairman and Managing D irector: Mr Agarwal is the ViceChairman and Managing Director of TRPC. He has been associated with the transport industry for more than 43 years. Mr Agarwal holds the Directorships of Bhoruka Power Corporation and Jai Bharat Maruti Ltd. He is also associated with the various chambers of commerce, including CII, Ficci and Phdcci. 7.4 8.0 7.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.7 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.0 2.9 1.8 7.7 8.3 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.2 8.0 11.8 12.2 11.8 11.6 12.4 12.7 10.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total Freight Division XPS Division Supply Chain Solutions TCI March 2015 95 Financials and valuation Consolidated - Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total Income from Operations 12,428 13,513 15,215 18,513 19,538 21,305 22,265 Change (%) 14.6 8.7 12.6 21.7 5.5 9.0 4.5 Operating Expenses 9,708 10,665 12,240 15,088 12,902 17,456 18,334 % of Sales 78.1 78.9 80.4 81.5 66.0 81.9 82.3 Personnel Expenses 681 697 835 929 1,015 1,121 1,172 % of Sales 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 Other Expenses 1,170 1,170 1,017 1,093 4,042 976 1,063 % of Sales 9.4 8.7 6.7 5.9 20.7 4.6 4.8 Total Expenditure 11,559 12,531 14,092 17,109 17,959 19,552 20,569 % of Sales 93.0 92.7 92.6 92.4 91.9 91.8 92.4 EBITDA 869 982 1,123 1,403 1,578 1,753 1,696 Margin (%) 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.2 7.6 Depreciation 233 297 296 353 416 464 468 EBIT 636 685 827 1,050 1,163 1,289 1,227 Int. and Finance Charges 197 279 219 283 364 352 327 Other Income 58 105 44 51 57 73 92 PBT bef. EO Exp. 497 511 652 818 856 1,011 992 PBT after EO Exp. 497 511 652 818 856 1,011 992 Current Tax 149 179 226 255 257 318 258 Deferred Tax 19 -1 9 16 5 -3 17 Tax Rate (%) 33.7 34.8 36.0 33.1 30.6 31.2 27.7 Reported PAT 330 333 417 547 595 695 716 Adjusted PAT 330 333 417 547 595 695 716 Change (%) 7.8 1.0 25.3 31.2 8.8 16.8 3.0 Margin (%) 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Equity Share Capital 145 145 145 145 145 146 146 Total Reserves 2,605 2,861 3,204 3,107 3,637 4,224 4,764 Net Worth 2,750 3,006 3,349 3,252 3,783 4,370 4,910 Minority Interest 0 17 47 30 29 11 31 Deferred Liabilities 291 293 303 319 317 315 332 Total Loans 2,439 2,499 2,849 3,147 3,410 3,544 3,355 Capital Employed 5,479 5,815 6,548 6,748 7,538 8,240 8,628 Gross Block 4,170 4,666 4,930 5,284 6,223 6,515 6,931 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,133 1,370 1,574 1,825 2,064 2,342 2,616 Net Fixed Assets 3,037 3,296 3,355 3,459 4,159 4,174 4,315 Capital WIP 53 119 154 67 78 51 183 Total Investments 81 33 41 15 17 80 80 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 2,847 3,200 4,159 4,375 4,480 5,344 5,429 Inventory 10 10 11 14 20 22 17 Account Receivables 1,959 2,133 2,637 3,208 3,365 3,951 3,800 Cash and Bank Balance 245 285 383 183 307 460 428 Loans and Advances 634 772 1,128 970 788 911 1,184 Curr. Liability & Prov. 543 839 1,171 1,178 1,198 1,410 1,381 Account Payables 254 366 635 726 874 883 773 Other Current Liabilities 109 107 125 139 97 109 194 Provisions 180 365 412 314 227 419 414 Net Current Assets 2,305 2,361 2,988 3,197 3,282 3,934 4,048 Appl. of Funds 5,479 5,815 6,548 6,748 7,538 8,240 8,628 E: MOSL Estimates TCI March 2015 96 Financials and valuation Ratios Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Basic (INR) EPS 4.5 4.6 5.8 7.5 8.2 9.5 9.8 Cash EPS 7.8 8.7 9.8 12.4 13.9 15.9 16.2 BV/Share 37.9 41.5 46.2 44.8 52.0 60.0 67.3 DPS 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 Payout (%) 15.4 23.4 17.4 14.7 15.4 18.8 21.9 Valuation (x) P/E 27.3 Cash P/E 16.5 P/BV 4.0 EV/Sales 1.0 EV/EBITDA 13.2 Return Ratios (%) RoE 14.2 11.6 13.1 16.6 16.9 17.1 15.4 RoCE 15.0 14.8 14.9 17.5 17.9 18.0 16.3 Working Capital Ratios Asset Turnover (x) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Inventory (Days) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 Debtor (Days) 58 58 63 63 63 68 62 Creditor (Days) 10 13 19 18 25 18 15 Working Cap. Turnover (Days) 60 56 62 59 56 60 59 Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio 5.2 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 Interest Cover Ratio 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 OP/(Loss) before Tax 432 551 681 818 855 1,011 993 Depreciation 208 299 296 353 416 464 468 Interest & Finance Charges 168 243 192 256 339 299 288 Direct Taxes Paid -403 -502 -419 -557 -271 -264 -280 (Inc)/Dec in WC -421 -21 -372 -392 -68 -462 146 CF from Operations -15 570 378 478 1,270 1,047 1,615 Others 2 -11 -5 24 -23 -3 -38 CF from Operating incl EO -13 559 373 502 1,247 1,044 1,577 (inc)/dec in FA -430 -626 -394 -858 -1,106 -441 -741 Others 65 78 -155 468 140 -104 -235 CF from Investments -467 -501 -556 -396 -967 -608 -976 Issue of Shares 517 0 2 4 12 10 8 (Inc)/Dec in Debt 105 60 350 298 263 134 -189 Interest Paid 0 0 0 0 -350 -336 -311 Dividend Paid -44 -70 -62 -69 -69 -79 -119 Others -7 -8 -11 -538 -11 -13 -20 CF from Fin. Activity 571 -18 280 -305 -155 -284 -633 Inc/Dec of Cash 91 40 97 -200 125 153 -32 Opening Balance 154 245 285 383 183 307 460 Closing Balance 245 285 383 183 307 460 428 Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 97 Ocean Sparkle COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Established in 1995, Ocean Sparkle Ltd (OSL Group) is engaged in providing comprehensive port operations and management services. n It is also involved in coastal transportation on the East Coast through its fleet of barges and tugboats for lighterage operations. The company is based in Hyderabad, Telangana. Key JV’s n Sea Sparkle Harbour Service (56:44 JV of OSL and PSAM) for operations at Ennore port n Sealion Sparkle Port and Terminal Services (Dahej) Ltd (49:51 JV of OSL and PSAM) for operations at Petronet LNG Limited’s jetty at Dahej, n 100% subsidiary Sparkle Port Services Ltd for operations at Petronet LNG Limited’s jetty at Kochi. n Other entities in OSL group include Sparkle Overseas Pte Limited (100% OSL stake) formed for overseas business and one JV for undertaking large-scale dredging projects, Sai Sparkle Dredging and Infra structure Developers Pvt. Ltd. Key Management n Mr P Jairaj Kumar, Chairman & MD n Mr Sanjeev Dhawan, Joint Managing Director n Mr A K Sawhney n Mr R Virender Prasad Port Operations and Management Solutions n The company has invested in harbor crafts like Tug Boats, Pilot Boats, Mooring Boats etc. It owns and operates ~100 of harbor crafts, which includes more than 70 Tug boats of varying capacities ranging from 30t to 70t Bollard Pull. It also has a fleet of 10 harbor tugs under its management. n As a part of port O&M solutions, it also offers pilotage services, control tower operations, mooring services, maintenance of navigational aids and buoys, oil spill Ship to Ship Operations/FPSO/SBM Operations n Ocean Sparkle carries out double banking operations for liquid and dry cargo in Indian and International waters. n It also carries out tandem mooring operations at FPSOs by provisioning pull back tugs, line handling boats, mooring gang, and loading masters/mooring master. Dredging n Ocean Sparkle has invested in a fleet of dredgers and barges and has the capability to cater to capital and maintenance dredging. It can provide end-to-end dredging services, including disposal of dredged material. Key Clients n Reliance Port and Terminals Limited, Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Dahej Harbour and Infrastructure Limited, Cochin Port Trust, Kandla Port Trust, Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited, Mumbai Port Trust KEY CHARTS KEY FINANCIALS AND INVESTORS Geographical presence Key Financials (INR M) 2014 2013 Total Income 2,890 3,770 PAT 400 590 Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 98 J.M. Baxi & Co COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Established in 1916, J.M. Baxi & Co. is engaged in providing shipping support services. Its services include shipping agency, agency for cruise and visiting naval ships, container transport management, port development and terminal management, project logistics division, engineering, equipment and training division, tanker operations, warehousing and freight station, chartering brokers, stevedoring and bulk cargo operations, manpower recruitment and ship management, support services for the oil and gas industry, support services for dredging operations and international freight forwarding. It is based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Key Management § Mr Krishna B Kotak, Chairman KEY CHARTS Geographical presence Shipping Agency n J.M. Baxi handles over 6,000 vessels including tankers, carriers, bulk cargo vessels, container vessels, dredgers, offshore & onshore rigs, etc. per annum at various Indian ports. n It also handles all types of cruise and visiting Naval ships at any port in India. Services include handling of passengers, crew, naval personnel both for embarking and disembarking operations. It maintains close liaison with port authorities, related government agencies, tourist bureaus, passenger handling companies, as well as, the Indian Navy. Port Development & Terminal Management n Since 1998, Company has been managing its own jetty at Rozi (Jamnagar) which is equipped with conveyors and bagging plants, ideally suited for loading and unloading of bulk cargoes. n It also set up the first container terminal at Visakhapatnam port, operational since June 2003. Bulk Cargo Operations n It offers turnkey services which includes receiving the cargo, documentation, stevedoring, lighterage activities, warehousing, etc. n JM Baxi has stevedoring licenses at most major and minor ports, which enables it to handle diverse cargoes such as dry and liquid, bulk & break bulk, containerized, heavy lift and over dimensional . Clearing and Freight Forwarding n As licensed Custom House Agents(CHA) at most Indian ports, J. M. Baxi & Co. provides efficient clearing and freight forwarding services. Freight forwarding services include custom clearance, compliance with import/export regulations, comprehensive multimodal point -to- point services comprising land, rail, air and sea transport and warehousing. It has tie-ups with foreign partners as well to provide International freight forwarding services. Project Logistics n JM Baxi provides specialized professional transportation services for a wide range of project equipments including over dimensional cargoes and delicate equipments on a turnkey and door–to–door basis. Other services n Includes handling tanker operations, crew & ship management, providing support services for Dredging operations and oil & gas industry. Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 99 Continental Warehousing Corp (Nhava Sheva) (CWCNSL) COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Established in 1997, Continental Warehousing Corporation, flagship company of the NDR group, provides services like warehouse management, inventory management, manpower, import container handling, export container handling, accounting, insurance, transportation and distribution. The company also provides comprehensive, value-added cargo and container management solutions to its clients. It is based in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra. n CWCNSL also operates CFSs in Chennai (Madhavaram and Redhills), and Tuticorin (Tamil Nadu). The combined container handling capacity of the group exceeds 300,000 twenty-foot-equivalents (TEUs) per annum. Additionally, CWCNSL recently set up an inland container depot (ICD) at Indore (Madhya Pradesh), with a container handling capacity of 30,000 TEU per annum. CWCNSL also has jetty operations in Jamnagar (Gujarat). Key Management n Mr Dara Jalnawalla - Director at CWCNSL n Mr. N. Amrutesh Reddy - Executive Director at CWCNSL n Mr. N Adikesavulu Reddy - Chairman of NDR Group Container Freight Stations CWCNSL operates three CFS at Nhava Sheva, Chennai and Tuticorin CFS in Nhava Sheva, Mumbai n Set up on a total area of 36 acres, with container handling capacity of 1.50 lakh TEUs per annum. It has a bonded warehouse of 1.2 lakh sq. ft., export warehouse of 1.15 lakh sq. ft and import/LCL warehouse of 1.4 lakh sq. ft CFS in Madhavaram, Chennai n Set up on a total area of 10 acres, with container handling capacity of 25,000 TEUs per annum. It has a bonded warehouse of 2.5 lakh sq. ft., import/export warehouse of 27,500 sq. ft and customs bonded & general warehouse CFS in Meelavittan, Tuticorin n Set up on a total area of 7 acres, it has an enclosed warehouse of 45,000 sq. ft and facility to handle import FCL/LCL and exports Warehousing Solutions n Apart from the warehousing solutions provided at the CFSes, CWCNSL offers an integrated warehousing solution across India through Kaveri Warehousing, a subsidiary of NDR group, providing services like warehouse management, inventory management, manpower, accounting, MIS, transportation and distribution KEY CHARTS KEY FINANCIALS AND INVESTORS Geographical presence n The Continental group - Key Financials (INR Mn) 2014 2013 Sales 6,980 6,680 PAT 445.6 363.5 Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 100 Star AgriWarehousing and Collateral Management COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Founded in 2006, Star AgriWarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd. is engaged in providing harvesting solutions. It offers post-harvest management solutions services, warehousing and storage services, collateral management services, logistics management services, procurement management services and private Mandi solution services. The firm also exports agriculture products. It is based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Key Highlights n INR 250 crore investment by Temasek Holdings n Acquired 1.38% stake in NCDEX, one of the Asia’s largest agri-commodity exchange n Started first international office through wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore "Star Agri Services (Pte) Ltd" n Presence in 250+ locations, 16 states n Warehousing capacity through warehouses and silos around 1.5 million MT Key Management n Suresh Goyal – Chairman and Managing Director n Dr. Y.S.P Thorat –Non Executive Vice-Chairman n Dr. Y.K. Alagh - Nominee Director n Amit Mundawala - Executive Director n Amit Khandelwal - Executive Director n Girish Nadkarni - Nominee Director n Amith Agarwal - Executive Director Warehousing n StarAgri provides state-of-the-art temperature controlled storage through an integrated and modern pan-India warehousing network of 800+ warehouses across 16 Indian states and over 1.5 million tonnes of warehousing capacity. n It also provides value added services like weighing, testing and certification Collateral Management n StarAgri, with the help of India’s leading financial institutions and banks, currently holds commodities worth INR 75 billion across 200 collateral management locations. n It reduces operating risk by ensuring safekeeping of commodities held as collateral with stringent inspection, verification, monitoring and control measures for secure traceability across the supply chain. Procurement n StarAgri facilitates integration with farmers for secure and reliable raw material supply to enable customers to source the right quality and quantity at the right price and time. n It has state-of-the-art quality and testing laboratories – StarLabs which provides a distinct measure to create a process driven transparency in the area of rural procurement. Logistics & Value Added Services n It provides end-to-end transportation solutions from sourcing the agri-produce to reaching the client’s factory or distribution network. n StarAgri offers value added services in the areas of rural retailing through ‘StarAgri Bazaar’, agri-insurance, logistics and bulk procurement KEY CHARTS The StarAgri Value Chain n Farmers Traders & Buyers Food Companies Retailers Consumers Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 101 Shree Shubham Logistics COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Founded in 2007, Shree Shubham Logistics Ltd.(SSL), a subsidiary of Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd., offers storage and preservation, weighing facilities through electronic weighbridges, testing and certification, fumigation and pest management, collateral management for commodity funding, commodity procurement and disposal of agricultural produce services. It is based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. n Shareholding Pattern – KPTL (85%), Bafna Family (15%). Key Management n Dr. Prakashi Bakshi - Managing Director n Mr. Aditya Bafna - Executive Director n Mr. Shubhendra Kumar Bafna - Executive Director n Dr. B.B. Pattanaik - Chairman & Non-Executive Independent Director Storage and Preservation n SSL manage and operate a total of 149 warehouses (owned/hired/PPP) across the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, with a total storage capacity of around 9.39 million sq. ft n Its agri-logistics parks are scientifically designed and equipped with modern infrastructure conforming to WDRA standards at a minimum Testing and Certification n SSL has set up its own central Analysis and Certification Laboratory (ACL) to provide testing and certification services for several parameters for various agricommodities and non-agricultural commodities. Collateral Management& Funding Facilitation n SSL works with various banks and financial institutions and enables various market participants to source funding from these banks and financial institutions n It has state-of-the-art quality and testing laboratories – StarLabs which provides a distinct measure to create a process driven transparency in the area of rural procurement. Commodity Procurement, Processing & Trading n SSL assists private entities dealing in agri-commodities to procure physical stocks, including in large volumes and with uniformity in quality, from mandis, auction sites, farmers, and traders & aggregators, based on the prices range, quality and grades specified by its clients. n It also has dedicated spaces in its warehouses for cleaning, de-stoning, grading, sorting and decorticating of agricommodities. KEY CHARTS KEY FINANCIALS AND INVESTORS Geographical presence Key Financials (INR Mn) 2014 2013 2012 Total Income 3,779.8 2,432.1 2,039.5 EBITDA 580.70 290.09 228.27 PAT 236.6 154.0 20.8 Equity Paid up# 626.8 580.0 580.0 Total Debt 3456.9 3078.4 2135.0 # Included Preference share Capital Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 102 TVS Logistics Services Ltd COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Set up in 1995, TVS Logistics Services Ltd.(TVS LSL), a subsidiary of TV Sundram Iyengar and Sons Ltd., offers transportation solutions including inbound and outbound logistics and milk run collections, warehouse management solutions in plant, spare parts warehouse, freight management solutions, asset based management solutions and materials management solutions. It is based in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. Key Management n Suresh Krishna - Chairman n R.Dinesh - Managing Director n Tarun Khanna - Director n Gopal Srinivasan - Director n Ravichandran - Executive Director Transportation Solutions n TVS LSL’s service offering in transportation includes plan for each part (PFEP) milk runs, line haul, re-delivery, customized vehicles and solutions, GPS tracking solution for all trucks, etc. Warehouse Management Solutions n TVS LSL offers customized solutions to meet client’s business needs and optimize their inventory and assets. n The company has 31 warehouses all across India with modern infrastructure – automation, modern racking, barcode scanning, in house Warehouse Management Solutions suite ‘Msys’, etc. Freight Management Solutions n With over 160 offices across the globe, TVS LSL offers global integration solutions like air freight, ocean freight, special equipment handling, custom clearances, customized surface transport, etc. It’s value added services include quality inspection, effective container cube utilization, robust packaging, etc. n TVS LSL also has approvals from the concerned authorities IATA, MTO, and is a member of major industry bodies like ACAAI, FFFAI, MMA, FIATA, CII, AMTOI, etc. Asset Based Management Solutions n TVS LSL has ventured into a new value added service offering - Material Handling Solutions for engineering and automobile majors, where all the material handling solutions required in the plant are provided with manpower to operate and maintain the equipment. KEY HIGHILIGHTS n Over 16 years of rich experience in managing warehouse operations n Strength of over 7000 strong head counts n Fleet volume exceeding 800 nos. in supporting Material Handling Solutions n Daily average of 650 trips to support Milk run activities for OEMs n Around 950 vehicles plying on road, with the option of GPS tracking facility, to meet the Line haul activities. Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 103 Safexpress Pvt. Ltd COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Set up in 1997, Safexpress Pvt. Ltd. is engaged in providing supply chain services including express distribution, third party logistics (3PL) and consulting. It also provides value-added logistics services for 8 different business verticals ranging from apparel and lifestyle, healthcare, hi-tech, publishing to automotive, engineering and electrical hardware, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer electronics and institutional. It is based in New Delhi. Key Management n Mr. Pawan Kumar Jain – Chairman & Managing Director n SR Sharda - Executive Director KEY CHARTS Geographical presence Express Distribution n Safexpress ensures time-definite deliveries through their robust ‘hub and spoke’ mode with a fleet of 4,000 vehicles, which is intended to minimize the distance travelled. This offering enables 'just in time' and lean supply chain requirements of the customers. n SafeAir is their specialized air service that complements the surface logistics in offering optimal multimodal solutions and faster deliveries through 20 state-of-the-art air hubs. 3PL & Inventory Management n Safexpress provides warehousing solutions to clients, right from identification of strategic locations, designing the rack layout and deciding optimal stocking levels. n It also has a state-of-the-art warehouse management system that monitors and controls all critical warehouse processes. Its value added services offering includes kitting, packaging, ERP systems, etc. Supply Chain Consulting n Company offers consulting solutions in distributions requirement planning, labour resource planning, warehousing layout and design, statutory documentation support, supply chain optimization and after-market distribution design. Customized Solutions and Reverse Logistics n Safexpress provides customized solutions including warehousing solutions, express surface and air or even multi-modal distribution, date and time-definite delivery, security and anonymity of consignment, cash-on-delivery, technology support, documentation assistance, in-transit inventory tracking, deferred deliveries, status reporting and customizing it as per client’s logistics requirements. n Safexpress offers reverse logistics solution and has a REVLOG system in place which is a unique online platform for downstream dealers / partners through which all stake holders, requesters, approvers, pick up associates, receivers get a transparent view of the entire 'Returns Process'. n It also provides industry specific solutions catering to Apparels, Automotive, E-commerce, Healthcare, etc. Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 104 Mahindra Logistics Ltd COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile § Set up in 2000, Mahindra Logistics Ltd (MLL), a subsidiary of Mahindra group, is engaged in providing supply chain and people logistics solutions. It offers multimodal transportation, warehousing, international logistics, fleet management centers, inbound and outbound logistics, inter-plant movements and other value-added services. It is based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Key Highilights n More than 13 offices, and over 88 operating locations across the country n We deploy over 25,000 vehicles a month, across transportation operations n Our operational space is over 5 million square feet for warehousing n We manage logistics for over 1,000,000 finished vehicles per annum n Currently we are managing in-plant logistics at 26 different manufacturing plants n We serve more than 200 large customers today Key Management n Mr Pirojshaw Sarkari – CEO n Nikhil Nayak - Chief Financial Officer Supply Chain Management n MLL’s transport solutions include primary, secondary and tertiary transportation, domestic long haul transportation by road and rail, last mile delivery, reverse logistics, valueadded services like network design and optimization, freight optimization, specialized vehicle designs, cross docking, customized packaging etc. n Company also offers multi-user warehousing, customized warehousing, in-plant stores etc. n MLL also offers international logistics by being a member of the World Cargo Alliance (WCA) family of Logistic Networks, a non-exclusive, privately-owned and managed forwarder network, with access to 4,466 agents worldwide. People Transport Solutions n Company provides customized solutions for people transport in corporates, deploying more than 5,500 vehicles every day and serving 200 corporate clients. KEY CHARTS KEY FINANCIALS Supply Chain Management Key Financials (INR Mn) 2014 2013 2012 Total Income 17,503.4 15,320.2 13,865.1 EBITDA 512.9 364.6 249.9 PAT 366.4 244.4 108.1 Equity Paid up 590.6 577.0 577.0 Total Debt 15.8 7.8 56.8 Logistics | Unlisted Players March 2015 105 SSN Logistics Pvt. Ltd.(Delhivery) COMPANY DESCRIPTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Company Profile n Set up in 2011, SSN Logistics Pvt Ltd (Delhivery) is engaged in providing logistics solutions to e-commerce portals n Its services include last-mile delivery, warehousing, reverse logistics, flexible payment collection and processing, vendor-to-warehouse and direct vendor-toconsumer delivery n It is based in Gurgaon, Haryana Key Highilights Cities 175+ Clients 800+ Sellers 25000 Products handled/day 90000 Processing capacity/day 2,50,000 Team size 5000 Key Management n Mr Sahil Barua, CEO & Co-founder n Mr Mohit Tandon, CSO & Co-founder n Mr Suraj Saharan, COO & Co-founder n Mr Bhavesh Manglani, COO & Co-founder n Mr Kapil Bharati, CTO & Co-founder Fulfilment and Logistics n Delhivery owns and operates fulfilment centers across India, with a presence in over 150 cities n The network is backed by in-house fulfilment and transportation management systems, customer analytics, geo-coding and route optimization so that products reach the consumers within 12-48 hours, a key feature of ecommerce deliveries Commerce Services n Delhivery provides a unified view of customer data, right from engagement to order management, fulfilment and shipping n It also offers business and reporting tools which provide real-time and periodic update of business performance metrics. n Also, Delhivery Data Services can be used to design marketing campaigns, recommendations engines and plan and manage merchandizing, transportation and customer service Omni-Channel n Delhivery’s omni-channel suite helps retailers to all channels – in-store, website, social media, mobile and voice - to create a seamless consumer experience n It further helps in managing store fronts, marketplace integration, distribute orders, catalogues, payments and analytics from a single location KEY CHARTS Geographical presence March 2015 106 Logistics | Transformational times! Annexure 1: Dedicted Freight Corridor n Planned D FCs c onnecting D elhi t o M umbai i n W est I ndia ( Container t raffic) a nd Kolkatta i n East I ndia ( Coal a nd s teel t raffic) w ill significantly ea se t he r ail f reight carrying capacity and turnaround time. n Full c ommissioning i s e xpected b y 2 019. In t he i nterim, s ome s ections w ould b e commissioned thus easing pressure on rail routes to some extent. n While D FCs w ill r educe l ogistics b ottlenecks a cross t he v alue c hain, i t w ill d irectly benefit the rail freight operators like CCRI and GDPL, who could expect a volume jump and margin expansion through double stacking and reduced empties. Need for dedicated freight corridors A dedicated freight corridor is planned to: n Decongest the rail network by providing dedicated rail line for growing freight traffic (16% of the railway route/km carries 52% of passengers and 58% of freight traffic). n Win back the freight market share from road segment (down to 30% from ~90%/60%/45% in 1951/1981/1991). n Reduce (and guarantee) freight transit time, boost overall industrial development along the route and provide the much-needed infrastructure for EXIM trade. n The shift of freight share from rail to road was driven by high growth and limited railway capacity additions. Indian rail network’s growth has been dismal since the last five decades as the route/km has increased by only 20% from ~54,000km to ~65,000km. n Other announced freight corridors include: 1. East-West Corridor (Kolkata-Mumbai) ~1,976kms. 2. North-South Corridor (Delhi-Chennai) ~2,173kms. 3. East Coast Corridor (Kharagpur-Vijaywada) ~1,100kms. 4. Southern Corridor (Chennai-Goa) ~899kms. Exhibit 1: Indian Railways line capacity utilization *Railway Year Book 2010-11 Source: NTDPC, MOSL 2 2 3 2 3 1 10 8 7 5 13 2 4 9 9 19 4 5 5 7 5 17 13 11 5 13 5 2 5 1 5 8 2 0 15 30 45 Delhi - Howrah Mumbai - Howrah Delhi - Mumbai Delhi - Guwahati via Sitapur, Gorakhpur-Barauni - Katihar Delhi - Chennai via Jhansi, Nagpur - Ballarshah Howrah - Chennai Mumbai - Chennai Less than 80% 80% - 100% 100% - 120% 120% - 150% More than 150% 26 17 25 33 28 42 41 Number of Sections March 2015 107 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 2: Indian rail route capacity addition significantly lagged freight growth Source: Indian Railways, MOSL Current timelines imply full commissioning by 2019 n DFCs are being constructed through the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India (DFCCIL, incorporated in October 2006), which is a special purpose vehicle (SPV) under the administrative control of Ministry of Railways. DFCCIL’s scope of operation includes planning and development, funds mobilization, construction, maintenance and operation of DFCs. n DFCs route: DFCs envisage connecting Delhi with Mumbai in Western India and Kolkatta in Eastern India. These two routes currently contribute to ~55% of Indian Railway’s freight revenue, and the route utilization on these two lines is 115-150% (refer Exhibit 1). The planned routes are: 1. 1,839km Eastern DFC from Ludhiana in Punjab to Dankuni in West Bengal 2. 1,499km Western DFC from Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust in Mumbai to Dadri near Delhi n Capex and funding: The estimated capex (debt-equity – 2:1, excluding PPP) on DFCs (excluding Sonnagar-Dankuni section, which is to be implemented through public private partnership) is ~INR800b (Eastern DFC INR267b and Western DFC INR467b). Land cost is estimated at INR81b. Majority of the project costs are funded by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (~77% of Western DFC cost) and World Bank (~45% of Eastern DFC). n Timelines: Western Corridor is expected to be completed by 2018, while the Eastern Corridor is expected to be completed by 2019. n Current status: Two major hindrances for any large project — land acquisition and environmental clearance — are in place with 96% land acquisition. n Revenue model: It will be operated on a no-profit, no-loss basis. DFCs will earn revenue from the Indian Railways by charging a track access charge. This charge will have a fixed (payable irrespective of traffic volume) and variable component, which will depend on traffic volume in terms of gross tonne/km. Short distance traffic would continue to ply on existing tracks, while DFCs will be primarily used for long distance traffic. n Allied i nfrastructure w ith D FCs: Along the DFCs, Multimodal Logistics Parks/Freight terminals and theme parks too are being developed. n Unique f eatures: The project is expected to be a game changer for India’s logistics sector. Ø It will significantly reduce the transit time — each freight train trip will be able to carry 3x the current load — reducing per unit transportation cost. - 100 200 300 400 500 600 FY81 FY01 FY05 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY13 Railway route km India Freight traffic (mmt) March 2015 108 Logistics | Transformational times! Ø The average speed of freight trains will increase from current 25km/hr to >70km/hr. Ø The axle load in DFC will increase from 25MT to 32.5MT, thereby enhancing the track loading capacity from 8.67MT/mtr to 12MT/mtr. Ø Rail technology will be upgraded with the help of heavy hauled freight train capacity of 15,000 MT and length of 1,500 meters. n The train frequency between key ports and ICD destination is expected to increase significantly. JNPT to Vadodara train’s frequency could increase from 9 to 49/day or Ahmedabad to Marwar train’s frequency could increase from 15 to 72/day. Exhibit 3: Indicative map of DFC’s route *~80% route is parallel to the existing rail track Source: PTI, PMO, MOSL Exhibit 4: Dec 2014 status of Eastern DFC Source: DFCCIL, MOSL Exhibit 5: Dec 2014 status of Western DFC Source: DFCCIL, MOSL March 2015 109 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 6: Status of key sub-sections in dedicated freight corridors Western Corridor Route Length (km) Year Funding Status FY15 target Phase III Dadri - Rewari 140 2013-2018 JICA + IR Phase I Rewari - Phulera - Ajmer - Marwar - Palanpur - Mehesana - Vadodara 920 2011-2017 JICA + IR Civil works on 625km Rewari - Iqbalgarh started (INR67b contract awarded to L&T Soiitz JV) Award of civil contract for Iqbalgarh - Vadodara (305km) Award of electrical and signalling contract for Rewari – Vadodara section (930 km) Phase II Vadodara - Surat - Valsad - Vasai Road - JNPT 430 2012-2018 JICA + IR Civil and track package at bidding stage Total 1,490 Eastern Corridor Phase III-APL3 Ludhiana - Ambala - Saharanpur - Meerut - Khurja 397 2014-2019 World Bank Appointed AECOM Asia as consultant Phase I-APL1 Khurja -Tundla - Bhaupur - Kanpur 343 2011-2017 World Bank Civil works on343km Bhaupur - Khurja started (INR33b contract awarded to Tata - Aldesa, Spain JV) Award of systems contract for khurja - Kanpur (343 km) Phase II-APL2 Kanpur - Allahabad - Mughal Sarai 390 2013-2018 World Bank Award of civil contract for Kanpur - Mughalsarai section (390 km) Phase Ia ( Funding by MoR) Mughal Sarai - Sonnagar 125 2010-2016 GoI Expect to run trial runs after clearing few bottlenecks Phase IV (Funding through PPP) Sonnagar - Gomoh - Andal - Dankuni 550 2014-2019 PPP Will be implemented PPP model Total 1,805 * Track-laying is also part of civil works Source: DFCCIL, Industry, MOSL Exhibit 7: Key design features of DFC route and infrastructure Source: DFCCIL, MOSL March 2015 110 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 8: Western Dedicated Freight Corridor Land Acquisition Status Area (in Hectares) As a % Compensation (INR M) Land Taken over (Ha.) As a % (Kms) Total 20A 20E 20F of total Award Disbursed of total Rewari 34 141 141 141 141 100% 1,530 1,390 129 91% Mahendragarh 46 93 93 93 93 100% 820 820 92 99% Alwar 2 6 6 6 6 100% 30 20 5 83% Sikar 79 328 328 328 328 100% 370 340 307 94% Nagaur 5 6 6 6 6 100% 0 0 6 100% Jaipur 98 461 461 461 461 100% 310 300 446 97% Ajmer 98 366 366 366 366 100% 920 760 300 82% Pali 196 524 524 524 524 100% 330 330 516 98% Sirohi 65 137 137 137 137 100% 390 350 124 91% Banaskantha 64 150 150 150 150 100% 640 230 54 36% Patan 11 22 22 22 19 86% 40 30 0% Mahesana 64 189 189 165 165 87% 850 470 0% Gandhinagar 30 181 181 181 117 65% 310 130 49 27% Ahmedabad 35 280 280 268 268 96% 1,150 650 152 54% Kheda 27 164 164 164 163 99% 100 60 103 63% Anand 44 275 275 275 274 100% 980 690 194 71% Vadodara 32 284 284 284 284 100% 3,070 3,020 280 99% Total Phase 1 930 3,607 3,607 3,571 3,502 97% 11,840 9,590 2,757 76% Vadodara 22 134 134 134 134 100% 35 34 133 99% Bharuch 53 330 330 330 327 99% 120 101 274 83% Surat 60 248 248 248 238 96% 455 3318 177 71% Navsari 37 65 65 65 50 77% 33 28 42 65% Valsad 72 91 91 91 69 76% 28 203 516 567% Thane 138 368 368 368 364 99% 490 158 117 32% Raigarh 45 74 74 74 74 100% 5 3 0 0% Total Phase 2 427 1,310 1,310 1,310 1,256 96% 1,166 3,845 1,259 96% Grand Total 1,357 4,917 4,917 4,881 4,758 97% 13,006 13,435 4,016 82% Source: DFCCIL, MOSL Exhibit 9: Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor Land Acquisition Status Length Area (in Hectares) As a % Compensation (INR M) (Km.) Total 20A 20E 20F of total Award Disbursed APL- 1 Khurja - Bhaupur Section (UP) 343 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,315 100% 5,700 5,200 APL- 2 Bhaupur - Mughalsarai (UP) 393 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,373 98% 4,250 3,430 Punjab 88 251 251 251 251 100% 8,620 7,660 Haryana 72 78 78 78 78 100% 390 310 Uttar Pradesh 288 436 353 338 338 78% 2,170 1,310 APL- 3 Ludhiana - Khurja Section 447 766 682 667 667 87% 11,180 9,270 Uttar Pradesh 26 51 51 46 42 82% 290 190 Bihar 93 268 268 263 259 97% 2,080 1,580 Mughalsarai – Sonnagar 118 319 319 309 301 94% 2,370 1,770 Bihar 139 202 202 171 121 60% 580 0 Jharkhand 196 373 184 138 138 37% 1,160 0 West Bengal 203 427 427 306 127 30% 690 0 Sonnagar- Dhankuni 538 1,002 813 614 386 39% 2,420 0 Total of EDFC 1,839 4,807 4,534 4,310 4,041 84% 25,930 19,670 20A – Declaration to acquire land for public purpose; Empowers to enter for survey, is a cut-off date for compensation determination, 20E – Declaration of acquisition; The land shall be vested absolutely in the Central Government free from all encumbrances. 20F – Determination of amount payable as compensation; Competent authority shall make an award under this section. Source: DFCCIL, MOSL March 2015 111 Logistics | Transformational times! Annexure 2: Delhi – Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) Government of India is developing Delhi – Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) along the planned DFC. It plans to develop 9 mega industrial regions, each of 20,000 hectares on 150-200kms, on either side of DFC railway line. Key project goals (Source: DMIC website) include (a) Double employment potential in 7 years, (b) Triple industrial output in 9 years and (c) Quadruple exports from the region in 8-9 years. Key stakeholders in the project include GoI (49%), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (26%), HUDCO (19.0%), IIFCL (4.1%) and LIC (1%). DMIC will be aligned with DFC at nine junction stations in addition to the end terminals at Tughlakabad and Dadri in Delhi and JNPT in Navi Mumbai. Exhibit 10: DMIC Project Summary Source: DMICDC, MOSL Exhibit 11: Large existing Industrial belts are within the DMIC areas Source: DMICDC, MOSL Exhibit 12: DFC will provide connectivity at nine intermediate junction stations Source: DMICDC, MOSL Exhibit 13: DMIC c overs t he m ajor p orts i n W est C oast o f India Source: DMICDC, MOSL March 2015 112 Logistics | Transformational times! Annexure 3 : Indian R ailways F inancial and O perational Summary Exhibit 14: Indian Railways continues to operate on very thin profitability (INR b) (INR b) FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Goods traffic 248 265 276 308 363 417 474 534 585 628 695 853 940 Passenger traffic 112 126 133 141 151 172 198 219 235 258 282 313 375 Other coaching 9 10 9 10 12 17 18 20 22 25 27 31 37 Sundry earnings 9 11 10 12 18 17 26 25 29 34 36 43 53 Traffic earnings 379 411 428 470 544 624 716 798 871 945 1,042 1,239 1,404 Less: working expenses 363 380 395 428 453 490 545 718 829 895 987 1,116 1,273 Net miscellaneous receipts 8 8 11 7 9 8 11 12 15 13 13 15 25 Net railway revenue 23 38 45 53 101 145 183 92 55 63 68 136 158 Payments to general revenues 23 27 34 32 39 42 49 47 55 49 57 53 78 Excess/shortfall 10 11 11 21 62 102 134 45 0 14 11 83 79 Source: Indian Railways, CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 15: Freight revenues contribute to ~65% OF Railway’s gross revenues (INR b) Source: Indian Railways, CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 16: Passenger service losses are cross subsidized by revenues from tariff (INR b) Source: Indian Railways, CMIE, MOSL 1 1 3 8 31 105 133 141 151 172 198 219 234 257 282 313 375 1 3 6 16 82 230 274 305 355 411 464 517 569 607 677 835 940 0 0 1 3 11 25 42 45 57 65 71 80 89 103 103 114 127 3 5 10 27 125 360 449 490 563 648 733 817 892 967 1,062 1,262 1,442 53% 61% 60% 57% 66% 64% 61% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 64% 63% 64% 66% 65% FY51 FY61 FY71 FY81 FY91 FY01 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Passenger Freight Other Gross revenue receipts Freight revenue share (%) 62 60 64 71 139 190 200 225 260 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 March 2015 113 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 17: FY14 R ailway Freight Vo lume ( 1,054 m illion t onnes) – Container t raffic contributes to only 4% of the total volumes Source: Indian Railways, CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 18: Container traffic contributes to only 4% of Railway’s freight revenues (%) Source: Indian Railways, CMIE, MOSL Coal, 48% Iron Ores, 12% Cement, 10% Mineral Oils, 4% Foodgrains, 5% Fertilisers, 4% Iron & Steel, 5% Domestic Contr., 1% EXIM Contr., 3% Other, 7% Only 4% Share of Container Service Coal, 43% Iron Ores, 10% Cement, 9% Mineral Oils, 6% Foodgrains, 8% Fertilisers, 5% Iron & Steel, 8% Domestic Contr., 1% EXIM Contr., 3% Other, 7% Only 4% Share of Container Service March 2015 114 Logistics | Transformational times! Annexure 4: Key global a nd domestic logistic trade statistics Exhibit 19: India rank's 13th in the world with 2% share in merchandise trade Source: UN, MOSL Exhibit 20: International s eaborne t rade ( volume l oaded) g rew a t 7 % C AGR i n t he l ast decade with Container growth highest at 15% CAGR (b tones) Source: UNCTAD, MOSL Exhibit 21: Indian p ort v olumes grew a t ~ 8% i n t he l ast decade (m tones) Source: IPA, MOSL Exhibit 22: Commodity-wise % s hare in port volumes - Share of Container has grown from 15% in FY04 to ~22% now Source: IPA, MOSL 1.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.8 6.0 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Container Other dry cargo Five major Bulks Oil & Gas Total 345 384 424 464 519 531 561 570 560 546 556 121 138 146 185 206 213 289 315 354 388 417 466 522 569 649 726 744 850 885 914 934 973 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Major Ports Non-Major Ports Total 35 33 34 33 32 33 31 31 32 34 34 17 20 19 17 18 18 18 15 11 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 19 15 14 15 16 18 18 18 20 21 22 21 16 17 16 18 16 15 17 17 18 20 20 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 POL Iron Ore Fertilizer Coal Container Other Cargo March 2015 115 Logistics | Transformational times! Exhibit 23: India export composition Source: CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 24: India import composition (%) Source: CMIE, MOSL Exhibit 25: Domestic c ontainer volume g rowth – Witnessed 1 0% volume CAGR in the last 10 years Source: IPA, MOSL Exhibit 26: Container volume share (%) - While JNPT has the highest C ontainer v olume s hare, p rivate G ujarat p orts a re also sizable Source: IPA, MOSL Exhibit 27: Indian Ra ilway’s t otal freight g rew a t 6 .6% C AGR in the last 10 years (b tones) Source: Indian Railways, MOSL Exhibit 28: FY14 R ailway F reight B reakdown ( %) - Container volumes contribute to only ~4% of railway’s total freight Source: Indian Railways, MOSL Petroleum, 20% Agriculture, 14% Minerals, 2% Leather, 2% Chemicals , 10% Engg goods, 20% Electronic goods, 2% Textiles , 5% Readymade garments, 5% Other mfg , 18% Other commodities, 3% Export Petroleum 37% Agriculture 4% Minerals 7% Leather 0% Chemicals 8% Engg goods 17% Electronic goods 7% Textiles (excl.rmg) 1% Readymade garments 0% Other mfg 16% Other commodities 4% 1 1 1 2 2 2 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.1 9.2 9.9 9.8 10.1 0 3 6 9 12 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 JNPT Chennai VO CPT Kolkata Cochin Vizag Oth. Major GPPV Adani Total JNPT, 42% Chennai, 15% VO CPT, 5% Kolkata, 5% Cochin, 3% Vizag, 2% Oth. Major, 4% GPPV, 7% Adani, 17% 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Coal Iron & Steel Cement Foodgrain Fertilisers POL Containers Other goods Total Coal, 48% Iron Ores, 12% Cement, 10% Mineral Oils, 4% Foodgrains, 5% Fertilisers, 4% Iron & Steel, 5% Domestic Contr., 1% EXIM Contr., 3% Other, 7% March 2015 116 Logistics | Transformational times! Disclosures This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company(ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. 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