Local Human Development Index (LHDI) as an Overall Measure of Public Investments for the Monitoring and Evaluation of Regional Operational Programmes, 2014

Excerpt from: Ionescu-Heroiu, M., Burduja, S., Ha Ti Tu Vu, Glenday, G., Giosan, ROMANIA i M l REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM V., Mot, M., Sandu, D., Iorga, E., Taralunga, N., Vintan, A. , Huddlestan, N., Tufis, P.,Gaman, F. (2014). Identification of project selection models for the regional operational program 2014-2020 W. Bank. A n n e x 2 4 . T h e LH D I a s a n O v e r a ll M e a su r e o f P u b lic I n v e st m e n t s f o r t h e R O P ' s M & E Th e p u r p o se o f t h is sect io n is t o d esign and t est a ver sio n o f t h e h u m an d evelo p m en t in d ex (HDI) an d t o use it f o r m o n it o r in g t he d evelo p m en t o f Ro m an ia o ver a set p er iod o f t im e. The st andard HDI d evelop ed by t he UNDP m easur es d evelop m en t on t he basis o f t hr ee d im en sion s edu cat io n, life expect ancy, and GDP per capit a - usually m easur ed co u nt r y-w id e or f or large r egions (UNDP, 2013). Th e Local Hum an Develo pm ent Index (LHDI) is an ad ap t at io n o f t he HDI designed t o cap t ur e t he d evelo pm en t at t he co m m un e and cit y level in Rom ania. It m easur es d evelo pm en t by lo oking at f o u r key d im en sion s: hum an, healt h, and vit al and m at er ial capit al. Th e f igu re below pr ovid es an o ver view o f t he individual ind icat or s collect ed t o m easur e t he LHDI. F i g u r e 5 0 . T h e M e c h a n i c s o f t h e LH D I In d ica t o r s D im e n sio n s ( f o r m s o f C o m m u n it y co m m u n it y ca p it a l) ca p it a l E d u c a t io n st o c k a t lo ca lit y H U M A N CA P IT A L le v e l ( E D S T O C K ) Lif e e x p e c t a n c y a t b ir t h H E A LT H C A P I T A L ( LI F E X P ) M e d iu m a g e o f a d u lt p o p u la t io n o f 1 8 y e a r s o ld V IT A L CA P IT A L a n d o v e r . Co m p le m e n t a r y v a lu e t o 1 ( Co m p A G E) Liv in g f lo o r a r e a b y h o u se ( lo ca lit y a v e r a g e ) M A T ER IA L CA P IT A L ( M A T CA P , g e o m e t r ic m e a n o f co m p o n e n t in d ica t o r s) Dif f er en t ver sio n s o f t h e in d ex h ave been d esign ed and im p lem en t ed in Ro m an ia sin ce t he m id-90s. Four w aves (see An nex 24A) o f m easur in g hum an d evelop m en t at t he com m un it y level follow ed: • co m m un e (i.e., basic rural ad m in ist r at ive unit ) level, in a r esear ch project f o r t he W orld Bank (19 98 );116 Community poverty in Romania rural areas .Foundation for poverty alliviation by Romania Social Development Fund. W o r ld Ban k, Bu cu r est i 116 Du m it r u San d u (co o r d in at o r ). 1998. (h t t p :/ / d u m it r u .san d u .go o gle p age s.co m / Co m m u n it y p o v e r t y in Ro m an iar u r alar e asl.p d f ) an d Du m it r u San d u , 1999, Co m m u n it y an d Re gio n al Po v e r t y in Ru r al Ro m an ia, in Ro m an ian Jo u r n al o f So cio lo gy, vo l. X. 397 • village (i.e., so cio-t er rit or ial unit w it h o u t an ad m in ist rat ive st at us) level, in a nat ional UNDP report (2005);117 • basic ad m in ist r at ive unit s level, f avo rin g co m pariso n s bet w een sim ilar localit ies or bet w een d if feren t resident ial com m u n it ies (2 0 08 );118 • basic ad m in ist rat ive unit s level (co m m un es o r cit ies), also allow ing f o r com parison s bet w een dat a collect ed in d iff erent cen suses (2013, based on dat a fr om t he 2011 and 2002 censuses). T h is a n a ly sis r e p r e se n t s t h e f if t h w a v e o f m e a su r in g lo ca l h u m a n d e v e lo p m e n t a n d it is d e sign e d t o a llo w f o r a y e a r ly co m p u t a t io n o f t h e LH D I , ir r e sp e ct iv e o f ce n su s m o m e n t s. The m et ho do logy f o r no rm alizing t he co nst it uent in dicat or s and f o r aggr egat in g t he f o u r d im en sion s is t he sam e as t he one f o r HDI: each in dicat o r is n orm alized by d ivid in g it s d eviat io n f ro m t he m inim um valu e o f t he dat a series t o t he range b et w een m inim um and m axim um (m in i-m ax m et hod); n orm alized valu es are aggr egat ed by geo m et r ic m eans. T h e a n a ly sis is st r u ct u r e d in t h r e e p a r t s, f o cu sin g o n t h e st e p s in co m p u t a t io n o f t h e LH D I , t h e co m p u t a t io n a lgo r it h m , a n d v a lid a t in g t h e in d e x. An n exes 24 A, B, and C cont ain f u r t h er det ails abo ut all issues discu ssed in t his sect ion. The LHDI could be co m pu t ed f o r all localit ies in Rom ania, f o r each successive year o r at a t w o -year int er val, using t he dat a provided by t he Nat ional Inst it ut e o f St at ist ics. The on ly co n st it u ent in d icat o r t hat is r eport ed o nly t o cen su s m o m en t s is t he ed ucat io n st ock, w hich eq uals t he aver age num b er o f gr adu at ed year s at t he lo calit y level. Due t o it s high st ab ilit y as a st ock m easur e, t his in d icat o r w ill be updat ed t hr ough est im at io n s every t hr ee years. EX T R A LO C A L C O N N ECT I V I T Y o u t - co m m u t in g by , m igr a t io n a b r o a d a n d b y u r b a n a c c e s i b il it y ____ T h e d ia g r a m a n d t h e a sso cia t e d a n a l y si s s h o w c l e a r l y t h a t t h e _1 LH D I i n c o r p o r a t e s d i r e c t l y r e le v a n t in f o r m a t io n o n h u m a n , m a t e r ia l, h e a t h , a n d v it a l c a p i t a l s o f l o c a l i t i e s. O 5 Co n n e ct iv it y a n d co n ce n t r a t io n f a c t o r s a r e a l so h i g h l y r e l e v a n t ED U CA T I O N £ a. «; o _f D EV ELO P M EN T cc I N D EX LU < LO CA L H U M A N L9 < 03 1 2 B e=> Z O O Z o I— "O C g Vi 3 £ 5 H EA LT H f o r LH D I . T h i s is in l i n e w i t h t h e t h r e e D a p p r o a ch o f t h e W o r ld D e v e lo p m e n t R e p o r t 2 0 0 9 . LO CA L LA BO U R M A RKET SU PPLY T h e v a lid a t io n o f t h e in d e x is d o n e b y f ir st t e st in g t h e st a b ilit y o v e r t im e o f t h e r e la t io n b e t w e e n lo ca l d e v e lo p m e n t a s a la t e n t v a r ia b le a n d it s m e a su r e m e n t in d ica t o r s (see Annex 24B). Seco nd , t he index is validat ed by co nsid er in g t he LHDI in t he con t ext o f it s key predict ors 117 U N D P . ( 2 0 0 5 ) . N a t i o n a l H u m a n D e v e l o p m e n t R e p o r t ( N H D R ) f o r R o m a n i a , p. 6 5 . A p r e v io u s f o r m o f LH D I , f r o m 1 9 9 8 , w o r k i n g m a in ly w it h n o n - ce n su s d a t a . u sT h e d a t a f r o m t h is v e r si o n o f t h e in d e x ( ca lle d in Ro m a n ia n i n d i c e l e d e z v o l t a r i i s o c i a l e l o c a l e , I D SL, Sa n d u 2 0 1 1 ) h a v e b e e n la r ge ly u se d f o r t h e f o u n d a t io n o f t h e d o cu m e n t la y in g t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r t h e d e sig n in g t h e a d m in ist r a t iv e r e gio n a lisa t io n o f Ro m a n ia in 2 0 1 3 ( Sa n d u 2 0 1 3 ) . 398 relat ed t o ext r a-local con nect ivit y, local labor supply, popu lat ion co n cent rat io n, and diffuse m o der nit y o f t he populat ion as r eflect ed in d em ograp hic b eh avior s (see f igu re above). St e p s in co m p u t in g t h e LH D I 1. Co m p ut in g t he valu es f o r t he co m p on en t ind icat or s f o r t he ref erence lo calit y L and a r ef er en ce m om ent : 1.1. Life expect an cy at birt h (LIFEXP) is est im at ed f o r t he last t h r ee year s o f available dat a. It s valu e f o r 2011, f o r exam ple, involved est im at ion s f o r t he period 2009-2011 and t he m easur e f o r 2012 w as based on t he 2010, 2011, and 2012 values. 1.2. St o ck var iab les r ef err ing t o m ean age (M EANAGE), size o f t he h ouses and privat e car s are based on dat a fr om t he last availab le year. 1.3. Educat ion st ock (EDSTOCK) is t he o n ly in d icat o r t hat is m easur ed o n ly at census m o m en t s. In t he f ir st t hr ee year s af t er t he cen sus m o m ent t he sam e dat a can be used f o r t he est im at io n o f t he ed ucat io n st ock. For lat er year s, t he u pdat e o f t his in dicat o r could be done by co nsid er in g r egional valu es t aken fr om large surveys con du ct ed by t he Nat ional Inst it ut e o f St at ist ics (e.g., Living Force Su rvey, know n as AM IGO) and in t r ar egion al edu cat ion st o ck h ier ar ch ies o f localit ies. 2. Ch eckin g dat a q u alit y f o r each in d icat or by: - co m parin g t he m ost r ecent dat a t o t he previous dat a at lo calit y and co u nt y levels - exam in in g m axim um and m inim um valu es. It is p ar t icular ly im p o rt an t t o ver if y t he q u alit y o f t he dat a f o r privat e cars, as t his dat a is usually not aggr egat ed f o r t er rit orial ad m in ist r at ive unit s (UAT), but r at her collect ed f o r individual lo calit ies (villages, co m m un es, cit ies). 3. Est im at in g upper lim it s f o r each o f t he six co m p on ent in d icat o r s (I) f o r 2020. The principle at t he fo u nd at ion o f t his act ivit y is t o co n sider t w o input s: t he elast icit y o f t he m eans f o r t he ref er en ce in d icat o r t o t he increase o f GDP/ cap it a b et w een 2002-2011 and it s expect ed upp er lim it f o r 2020.The GDP/ cap it a in Rom ania as a p er cen t age o f t he EU aver age w as equal t o 47% in 2011. It s t ar get valu e f o r 2020 is ap p ro xim at ely 80%o f t he EU aver age119. 3 .1 . E l a st i c i t y c o e f f i c i e n t f o r i n d i c a t o r 1= ( l 20n - I2002) / ( GD P2011-GD P2002) 3.2. Expect ed in cr ease o f m ean l2oii-2 0 2 o=(GDP2o2 o-GDP2o ii)* elast icit y coefficient . 3 .3 . Expect ed m ean f o r I2020 = m ean o f l2on + Expect ed incr ease o f m ean I2011-2020. 3.4. Est im at in g m axim um lim it f o r l202 o by co nsid er in g t he t rend in t he change of m axim um / m ed iu m valu e b et w een 2002 and 2011: m a x I 202o = m e a n l202o * ( m a x I2020 / m e a n 202o)4. Id en t ifyin g m inim um valu e f o r index I as equal t o t he m inim um r ecor ded in 2002 and 2011. 5. No r m alizin g each ind icat or I t hr o ugh t he m ini-m ax pr ocedu re: d ivid in g (observed d eviat io n valu e o f index I f o r lo calit y L, in t he r eference year )/ d if fer en ce bet w een m axim um and m inim um valu es f o r t he w h ole period 2002-2020. 119 T h e r e f e r e n ce le v e l o f 8 0 % f o r Ro m a n ia ' s G D P / ca p i t a 202 o is a d o p t e d f r o m N a t i o n a l S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t St r a t e g y R o m a n ia 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 3 0 , GO R, U N D P 2 0 0 8 . 399 6. Aggregat in g t he t h r ee norm alized ind icat or s o f t he m at er ial capit al (CAPM AT) - privat e cars, living f lo o r area per household and nat ural gas co nsum pt io n per in habit ant - t o gen er at e t he part ial index o f m at er ial capit al f o r each localit y. 7. Com pu t in g LHDI as a geom et r ic m ean o f t he f o u r co m p on en t d im en sio n s f o r each t er r it or ial ad m in ist rat ive unit (UAT) in Rom ania w it h m ore t han 1000 in hab it an t s in 2011: LHDI= (EDSTOCK* CAPM AT* LIFEXP* (l-M EANAGE))<1/4). 8. Test in g t he valid it y o f t he new LHDI est im at es, com pared t o: 8.1. M easu res fr om pr evious years, 8.2. Pr edict ab ilit y o f t he new valu e f u nct io n s o f ext ernal cr it er ia (regr ession m odels based on p redict or s o f urban co nn ect edn ess, localit y size, im m igr at ion, co m m ut in g et c. - see relevant chap t er lat er in t he analysis). C o m p u t in g a lg o r it h m No rm alizin g variab les using t he m ini-m ax m et hod w it h em pir ically d et er m ined fixed r anges + normalized value*, observed value*, — =£ ---------------------------- — min*? & -------------------- expected m a x ™ — m i n ™ W h ere: i - i n d i c a t o r i, I - r e f e r e n c e lo ca lit y , t - r e f e r e n c e t i m e f o r c u r r e n t e st i m a t i o n , t O - s t a r t i n g y e a r f o r t h e p e r i o d o f r a n g e st a b i l i t y , t n - e n d y e a r f o r t h e p e r i o d o f r a n g e st a b i l i t y m i n t 0 - a v e r a g e o f t h e f i v e sm a l l e s t v a l u e s o f t h e i n d i c a t o r f o r t h e y e a r t o Th e st ar t ing year f o r t he dat a ser ies o f LHDI is t 0= 2002 (t he year o f t he second t o last census) and t n=2020. Th e expect ed m axim um valu e f o r t he ith in d icat or is det er m ined by t he valu e from t he last cen su s plus t he expect ed incr ease f unct ion o f t he know n variat io n bet w een t he t w o last su ccessive cen su ses. Th e m axim um valu es f or t he last t w o cen su ses ar e aver ages o f t he five h ighest valu es in t he cor resp o n d in g series. ,. , , t nor mali zed value;, • — — — obser ved value?,—mi rijf = ------------------------ ex pec t ed m a x ,,—min,, (1) J“ The nor m alizat ion o f t he ind icat or s co m p osin g t he LHDI f o r a ser ies o f su ccessive m easur em ent s involves t he id ent if icat ion o f st able m inim um and m axim um lim it s o ver t im e (see eq uat ion 1). W hat w ould t he m axim um lim it be f o r t he st o ck o f ed ucat io n at t he level o f localit y in 2020? W hat is t he best rule f o r p redict ing such a lim it f o r Rom anian localit ies in 2020? An sw ers t o t hese q u est io n s have t o be f or m u lat ed f o r all t he in d icat o r s co m p osin g t he LHDI. Ed u ca t io n st o ck ( ED ST O CK) is t he aver age num b er o f year s t hat people f ro m t he sam e localit y gr adu at ed w it h in f or m al ed ucat io n cycles. Th e n um ber o f grad uat ed year s in d iff eren t cycles diff er s acco r din g t o t he age o f t he person. One w ay t o get a proxy f o r t he local edu cat ion st ock 400 is t o m ult ip ly people in each ed u cat ion al segm en t by t he m axim um n u m ber o f year s o f t he ref erence cycle. People t hat o n ly gr adu at ed p rim ary sch oo l, f o r exam ple, w ould r eceive 4 year s o f edu cat io n. Follow in g t his logic, t he co m p u t at ion w eight s (w j f o r t he n um ber o f people (p,) t hat gr adu at ed cycle i w ould be 8 f o r gym n asiu m , 10 f o r vo cat io nal o r ap p r ent icesh ip schools, 12 f o r high school, 14 f o r p o st -secon dary school and 16 f o r h igher edu cat io n. S w , * p, EDSTOCK: SP i W here £Pi =all t he popu lat ion living f o r m ore t han 10 year s in t he r espect ive localit y. The edu cat io n st ock in Clu j-Nap oca cit y, f o r exam ple, incr eased fr om 10.9 in 2002 t o 12.1 in 2011. Th e EDSTOCK at t h e nat ional level gr ew in t he sam e period fr om 8.6 t o 9.8. In o r d er t o set t he u pp er lim it f o r 2020 w e w ill have t o f ir st co n sid er t he expect ed m ean o f t he co nst it ut ive in d icat o r f u nct io n o f t he elast icit y co eff icien t o f it s ch an ge f o r one unit o f ch an ge in t he GDP/ cap it a o f t he cou nt r y f ro m t he m ean o f Eur opean Union. In t he 2002-2011 t im ef r am e t he r elat ive GDP/ cap it a o f t he cou nt r y incr eased fr om 30% t o 4 7 %120 and t he ed ucat io n st ock fr om 8.6 t o 9.8. By d ivid in g t he incr ease o f EDSTOCK t o t he in cr ease o f GDP w e get an elast icit y co eff icien t o f 0.071. Expect ed in cr ease o f m ean EDSTOCK2oii-2 0 2 o=(GDP2 0 2 o-GDP2o ii)* elast icit y co ef f.=(8047)* 0.068=2.24 By ad ding t he r esult ed valu e t o 9.8, t he aver age st ock f o r 2011 t h at r esult s is 12.03 =9.79+2.24, r ep resen t ing t he expect ed average level f o r t he ed ucat io n st o ck in Rom ania 2020. The rat io of t he m axim um ed ucat ion st ock in t he series o f dat a f o r all t he lo calit ies t o t he nat ional aver age rem ained co n st an t in bot h cen su s year s o f 2002 and 2011, equal t o 1.23. If t he sam e rat io for 2020 is adopt ed, t he r esu lt in g m axim um valu e f o r EDSTOCK in 2020 is 14.79. e la st i ci t y co e f f . 8.63 4.13 10.72 6.78 9.79 3.85 12.08 8.44 maximum* /mean 1.24 1.23 12.03 3.85 14.79 10.94 1.23 Mean EDSTOCK2002 EDSTOCK2011 Minimum Maximum Range L I F E X P / G D P p e r ca p it a r e la t i\ e t o E U m ean 0 .0 6 8 e x p e ct e d ED ST O C K 2 0 2 0 D a t a s o u r c e : N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f S t a t i s t i c s ( N I S) . N o t e : N a t io n a l a v e r a g e s f o r 2 0 0 2 a n d 2 0 1 1 t a k e t h e lo ca lit y p o p u la t io n a s a w e ig h f a ct o r . T h e cu m u la t e d d a t a b a se in cl u d e s o n ly t h e lo ca lit ie s t h a t h a d m o r e 2 0 1 1 ) . T h e m a x im u m se r ie s. A n t h a n 1 0 0 0 in h a b it a n t s in 2 0 1 1 (2 ,8 3 9 f o r 2 0 0 2 a n d 3 ,0 5 9 f o r v a lu e s f o r 2 0 0 2 a n d 2 0 1 1 r e p r e se n t t h e a v e r a g e s o f t h e f i r s t f i v e h ig h e st v a lu e s in t h e y e a r im p o r t a n t h y p o t h e s is u se d is t h a t o f the co n st a n t r a t io betw een m a x im u m / m e a n . The sh a d o w s in d ic a t e f i g u r e s d e r iv e d t h r o u g h e la st icit y co e f f icie n t s o r e x p e c t e d r a t io n b e t w e e n m a x im u m a n d m e a n . Lif e e x p e ct a n cy a t b ir t h ( LIFEX P ) is t he aver age num b er o f year s a p er son born in t he reference year w ould live und er t he sam e u nchanged life co n dit io ns as t he cur rent ones. The in dex is com pu t ed by aggregat in g m o rt alit y rat es f o r all t he segm en t o f p opulat ion by age o r age-gr oups. 120 D a t a so u r ce f o r G D P / ca p it a a s p e r ce n t a g e f r o m EU m e a n : EU R O ST A T h t t p :/ / e p p . e u r o st a t . e c. e u r o p a . e u / t g m / t a b le . d o ? t a b = t a b le & in it = l& p lu g in = l& la n g u a g e = e n & p co d e = t e c0 0 1 1 4 . T h e r e f e r e n ce le v e l o f 8 0 % f o r R o m a n ia _ G D P / ca p i t a 2o2 o is a d o p t e d f r o m N a t i o n a l S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t S t r a t e g y R o m a n ia 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 3 0 , GO R, U N D P 2 0 0 8 . 401 e la st icit y co e ff. LI F E X P / G D P p e r ca p i t a L1FEXP1999-2001 L1FEEXP2009-2011 LI FEX P 2 0 1 8 - 2 0 2 0 Mean 70.6 73.6 79.5 Minimum Maximum Range 53.3 77.5 26.3 88.4 57.7 32.6 53.3 91.4 38.1 max/mean 1.10 1.20 1.15 re la t ive t o E U m e a n 0 .1 7 7 D a t a so u r ce : N IS N o t e : N a t io n a l a v e r a g e s f o r 2 0 0 2 in clu d e s o n ly the H y p o t h e sis o f a co u ld be the lo ca lit ie s t h a t and 2011 had d e c r e a se o f t h e r a t io m ore betw een r e su lt o f h ig h e r co n ce n t r a t io n r e g io n a l p o licie s. M a x im u m u se tha n lo ca lit y p o p u la t io n 1000 m a x im u m / m e a n o f the p o p u la t io n v a lu e s f o r 2 0 0 2 a n d 2 0 1 1 as a in h a b it a n t s in w e ig h f a ct o r . 2011 (2 ,8 3 9 f o r The 2002 cu m u la t e d d a t a and 3 ,0 5 9 f o r t o w a rd th e a ve ra g e b e tw e e n 2 0 0 2 and o f the r e d u ct io n in h e a lt h b a se 2 0 1 1 ). and 2011. T h is d isp a r it ie s t h r o u g h a r e a v e r a g e s o f t h e f i r s t f i v e h i g h e s t v a l u e s i n t h e y e a r s e r i e s. T h e sh a d o w s in d ic a t e f i g u r e s d e r iv e d t h r o u g h e la st i ci t y co e f f ic ie n t s o r e x p e c t e d r a t io n b e t w e e n m a x i m u m a n d m e a n . T h e a v e r a ge a ge f o r t he adult (18 and 18+ year s old) popu lat ion in a lo calit y is included int o LHDI index as a m easur e o f t he vit al capit al o f t he lo calit y. The higher t he m ean age in t he com m un it y, t he low er it s vit al capit al and, im plicit ly, it s hum an d evelo p m en t level. Th e aging process in t he Rom anian societ y is inevit able. It s variat io n in t er r it or y, am on g r egions o r am ong localit ies, indicat es t he variat ion in t he d evelo p m en t p ot ent ial as given by it s yo u n ger w or kingage popu lat ion o r vit al capit al. Due t o t he negat ive co rr elat ion bet w een local hum an d evelop m en t and t he m ean age o f ad ult populat ion, t h is in d icat or w ill be included int o t he aggr egat ion p rocess f o r t he LHDI as a co m plem en t t o one, af t er it s n or m alizat ion t hr ough t he m ini-m ax p rocedur e. The aver age age o f t he adult populat ion is expect ed t o m ove fr om 45.6 in 2011 t o ab ou t 49.4 year s o f age in 2020. A slight in cr ease o f t he upper aver age lim it per lo calit y is also expect ed. It is present ed in t he t ab le below and f o llo w s t he sam e r easoning as in previous t ables: e l a s t i c i t y co e f f . A v e r a g e a g e o f p o p u l a t i o n in a v e r a g e a g e a d u lt s 2 0 1 1 Mean 43.67 45.63 e x p e ct e d a v e ra ge a ge 2 0 2 0 4 9 .4 4 a v e r a g e a ge a d u lt s 2 0 0 2 Minimum Maximum 34.00 59.40 37.20 58.82 34 6 0 .3 1 Range 27.30 22.90 2 6 .3 1 maximum* /mean 1.36 lo ca lit y / G D P p e r ca p it a r e la t i v e t o E U 1 .2 9 m ean 0 .1 1 5 1 .2 2 D a t a s o u r c e : N I S. T h e m a x im u m to 2011. Tha t Em ig r a t io n in t h e lo c a l d a t a se r ie s is e x p e ct e d t o co m e clo se r t o t h e a v e r a g e , a s in d ica t e d b y t h e t r e n d f r o m co u ld be a co n se q u e n ce o f the e x p a n sio n o f the a g in g a b r o a d co n t r ib u t e d a n d w ill v e r y lik e ly co n t in u e t o co n t r ib u t e p r o ce ss in m ore t o t h e sa m e and t re n d . m ore 2002 co m m u n it ie s. T h e sh a d o w s in d ic a t e f i g u r e s t h a t a r e d e r iv e d t h r o u g h e la st icit y co e f f ic ie n t s o r e x p e c t e d r a t io n b e t w e e n m a x im u m a n d m e a n . Th e in d icat or is cor relat ed in a n egat ive w ay w it h t he local hum an d evelop m ent . Th is is t he reason w h y it s com plem en t ar y t o one valu es (af t er rescaling it t h r ou gh t he m in -m ax f o rm ula) is included in t he algo rit hm f o r t he LHDI. Liv in g f lo o r a r e a p e r d w e llin g. Th e d ispar it ies in t he h ousing co n dit io n s am o ng lo calit ies are expect ed t o in cr ease up t o 2020. It w ill be p ar t icular ly t ru e f o r co m m u n es t hat ar e close t o rich cit ies t o have lar ger h ouses (Dum br avit a and Ghir oc near Tim iso ar a, Co rb ean ca and Vo lu nt ari close t o Buchar est , and Cor unca in t he p roxim it y o f Targu M ures, f o r exam ple) and f o r poor rural lo calit ies w it h low con n ect ivit y t o d yn am ic cen t er s t o keep t heir t rad it io n al sm all houses 402 (Necsest i and Scu rt u M are in Teleor m an count y, Lem nia in Covasna, Birda in Tim is and Alexand ru Vlah ut a in Vaslui, f o r exam ple). e la st icit y co eff. Livin g floor a r e a / G D P p e r ca p it a living floor area per dwelling 2002 living floor area per dwelling 2011 expected living floor area per dwelling 2020 Mean 37.79 Minimum Maximum 20,78 64.16 Range 45.94 maximum* /mean 1.70 39.65 16.72 93.36 95,03 2.35 43.26 16.72 129.98 113.26 3.00 relat ive t o EU m e a n 0.109 a t a so u r ce : N IS Pr iv a t e ca r s t o 1 0 0 0 in h a b it a n t s. Th e low elast icit y o f variat ion in t he n u m b er o f car per 1000 in h ab it an t s could be an ef f ect o f t he w eak m easur em ent at t he raw dat a level: som e o f t he cars in Rom ania are r ecor ded abr oad due t o t ax r easons, and also due t o t he f act t hat t he official evid en ce is b et t er at t he co u nt y level r at her t han at t he localit y level. Dat a series f o r 2011 involved sever al est im at ion s as som e localit ies had car s in 2007 and no car in 2012 et c. A det ailed ch eck o f t he raw dat a is n ecessar y in t he case o f repeat ed an alysis f o r t he LHDI. e la st icit y co eff. Priva t e ca r s/ G D P p e r ca p it a Mean 7.94 private cars to 1000 inhabit 2007, In transformation private cars to 1000 inhabit 2012, In transformation 8.17 Minimum Maximum 0.00 12.99 1.10 13.22 0 14.55 Range 12.99 maximum* /mean 1.64 12.12 1.62 re lat ive t o E U m e a n 0.014 expect ed no. o f p r iva t e ca r s to 1000 in h a b it a n t s 2020 8.98 1.62 D a t a so u r ce : M in ist r y o f In t e r io r T h e n a t u r a l ga s d ist r ib u t e d t o h o u se h o ld s had a r at her sm all incr ease bet w een 2002 and 2011. Th e range am o ng m axim um and m inim um co nsum p t ion d ecr eased . Repeat ed use o f t he m easur e f o r LHDI com p u t at io n s w ould involve, as in t he case o f p rivat e car s, a m ore det ailed exam inat ion o f t he r aw dat a q u alit y (as r ecor ded int o lo calit y d at a base BD La t t h e NIS level). e la st icit y coeff. nat ural ga s dist ribut e d t o h h d s. / G D P pe r ca p it a relat ive to EU Mean natural gas distributed to population ( m3 per inhabitant) Minimum Maximum Range 131.84 0.00 1212.60 1212.60 maximum* /mean 9.20 139.26 0.00 1000.00 1000.00 7 .1 8 m ean 2002 natural gas distributed to households (m3 per inhabitant) 0 .4 3 6 0 2011 natural gas distributed to households (m3 per inhabitant, 2020, estimation) 153.65 0: 1220.00 1213 5 .1 6 D a t a so u r ce : N I S All t he norm alized ind icat o rs and t he gen er at ed geo m et r ic m eans ar e m ult iplied by 100 f o r an easier reading. 403 V a lid a t in g t h e LH D I T h e r e a r e se v e r a l w a y s t o v a lid a t e t h e Lo ca l H u m a n D e v e lo p m e n t I n d e x. First o f all, one can co nsid er t he st ab ilit y o f t he r elat io ns bet w een local d evelo p m en t as lat ent variab le and it s in dicat or s m easur in g t he f o u r fo rm s o f vit al, hum an, m at er ial and healt h capit als. An n ex 24B ar gues w it h t ech nical r easons, and by co m parin g dat a f ro m 2002 and 2011, t hat t he cr it er ion o f " m et r ic in varian ce" is m et t o a part ial, but accept able d egree, acco rd ing t o t he m ainst ream m et ho dological pract ices. Hum an capit al is t he m ost relevant in d icat o r f o r local hum an d evelo p m ent in bot h periods o f r eference. M at erial capit al t en ds t o have a higher relevance f or d evelo p m en t com pared t o vit al capit al dur in g t he period o f r eference. The p rocess is consist ent w it h t he st able nat ure o f t he age st r uct ur e com pared t o m at er ial capit al st ocks. The w ays o f using variab les f o r m easur in g hum an d evelo p m en t at t he local level keep a r at her co nsist en t co n figur at io n in t h eir in t er -r elat io nships. O n e o f t h e m o st r e le v a n t r e a so n s f o r p r o v in g t h e v a lid it y o f LH D I is t h e p r e d ict a b ilit y f u n ct io n o f t h e d e v e lo p m e n t f a ct o r s t h a t a r e n o t in clu d e d in t o it s co m p u t a t io n (crit er ion validit y, Babbie 2010). From t he d egree t o w hich t he index is r eally m easur in g local d evelo p m ent one can expect t o get a good est im at io n o f it s valu e f u nct io n o f ind icat or s r elat ed t o local con nect ivit y, local em p lo ym en t and d if fu se cult ur al m o der nit y o f t he local populat ion. T h e d a t a in t h e f igu r e b e lo w e n t ir e ly su p p o r t s t h e id e a t h a t lo ca l h u m a n d e v e lo p m e n t is st r o n gly d e p e n d e n t o n lo ca l co n n e ct iv it y t h r o u gh - o u t - co m m u t in g, m igr a t io n a b r o a d , a n d d ist a n ce s t o t h e n e a r e st cit ie s. Higher d evelo p m ent go es also t o get h er w it h h igher local labor supply, popu lat ion co ncen t r at ion (given by urban st at us and d em ograp hic size) and higher cult ur al m oder nit y, as r eflect ed int o d em o gr ap h ic behavior s. Th e above m ent ioned f act o rs have d if feren t roles, d ep en d in g on t he r esidence st at us o f t he localit y: local p o pu lat ion co ncen t r at ion seem s t o have a lar ger im p act on rural local d evelo p m ent t han on urban d evelo p m ent ; t he shar e o f em p loyed people fr om t he sam e localit y has a higher im pact f o r t he d evelo p m en t o f cit ies t han f o r t hat o f com m un es; cult ur al m odernit y o f t he populat ion is a signif ican t p redict o r ju st f o r com m un es (see t ab le A26c in An n ex 24C). Th e a b o v e f in d in gs d e m o n st r a t e t h a t t h e LH D I is a p o w e r f u l d e v e lo p m e n t m e a su r e t h a t in clu d e s in f o r m a t io n b o t h o n t h e f o u r f o r m s o f co m m u n it y ca p it a l (educat ion, healt h, m at erial and vit al) and on im por t ant co n dit io nin g f act or s o f d evelo pm en t (ext ra-local con nect ivit y, labor supply, t er r it o rial co ncen t r at io n and d if fu se local m odernit y). In o r d er t o t est t he ef f ect o f t he aggr egat ion m et hod on t he index w e used as w ell a m ore sop hist icat ed p rocedur e (a f act o r scor e) w it h t he sam e f o u r con st it ut ing indicat or s. Th e f act o r scor e p ro cedu re gen er at es an index t hat is highly cor relat ed w it h t he LHDI, based on aggr egat io n t hr ou gh t he geo m et r ic m ean (r= 0.98). Th e d isad van t age o f t he f act o r score p rocedur e is t hat t he gen er at ed index is less com parab le acr o ss t im e. Th e m a p b e lo w h igh ligh t in g t h e d e v e lo p m e n t le v e l f o r co u n t ie s in 2 0 1 2 co u ld b e t a k e n a s a r e f e r e n ce f o r t h e d y n a m ics o f t h e LH D I. Th is is lar gely co nsist en t w it h an ot h er m ap t hat circulat ed ext en sively in Rom ania w hen t he f o u n d at io n s f o r regio nalizat ion project in 2013 w ere under d eb at e (Sandu 2013). The locat ion o f t he m ost d evelop ed ar eas r em ained t he sam e: Sibiu-Br a§ov-Tim i$-Cluj-Bucure$t i-llfov. Th is is t he case f o r p over t y as w ell, w hich is m ainly locat ed in bot h m aps in t he Sout h and East , and in t he lo w er m id dle-d evelo p ed ar eas in W est M oldova. M iddle d evelo ped ar eas " m igr at ed " fr om W est Tr an sylvan ia in 2002 t o Nort h and Sou t h -W est Tr an sylvan ia in 2012. 404 T a b le 2 8 . P r e d ict o r s o f H u m a n Lo ca l D e v e lo p m e n t in R o m a n ia , 2 0 1 2 H igh La b o r Su p p ly, H igh Co n n e ct ivit y o f Lo ca lit y t o U rban Ce n t e rs, Re gio n o f Lo ca t io n a n d O t h e r Co u n t ie s b rin g H igh Lo ca l D e ve io p m e n t sp a t ia l co n n e ct iv it y o f t h e 0 .0 6 1 0 .3 2 8 r a t e o f p e o p le sa la r i e d in t h e lo ca l u rb a n lo ca lit y y t o t h e n e ig h b o u r in g sa m e l o c a l i t y , 2 0 1 1 , cit ie s ( IU R CO N ) _____________ LO C SA LA R I E D d ist a n ce s g e n e r a l f e r t ilit y ra t e (b o rn d if f u se r a t e o f co m m u t in g t o u r b a n ch ild r e n t o 1 0 0 0 f e r t ile a g e cu lt u r a l lo ca lit ie s 2 0 1 1 U R B C O M U T T I N G w o m e n ) , 2 0 1 1 , F E R T I LI T Y m o d e r n it y 0 .4 0 2 £ > e m p lo y m e n t co m m u t in g 0 .0 8 4 r a t e o f co m m u t in g t o ru ra l o<_> lo ca lit ie s 2 0 1 1 R U R C O M U T T I N G ra t e o f sa la r ie d p e o p le o f 0 .1 6 8 u r b a n lo ca lit y (1 y e s, 0 n o ) lo ca lit y w o r k in g a b r o a d , 2 0 1 1 , W O RKA BRO D te m p o ra ry co n t r o le e m ig r a t io n v a r ia b le s ra t e o f p e o p le t h a t liv e a b r o a d 0 .1 1 5 lo ca lit y p o p u la t io n 2 0 1 1 t e m p o r a r ily f o r m o re t h a n o n e y e a r, 2 0 1 1 , T EM IG A B R O D D a t a s o u r c e : N I S. R e s u lt s o f O LS m u l t i p l e r e g r e ssio n . N = 2 9 5 5 . T h e m o d e l e x p la in s 6 9 % o f t h e v a r ia t io n in LH D I ( R 2= 0 . 6 8 9 ) . F ig u r e s a r e f o r b e t a co e f f icie n t s. T h e h ig h e r t h e v a lu e o f t h e co e f f icie n t , t h e h i g h e r t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e r e f e r e n c e f a c t o r o n LH D I . A l l t h e p r e d i c t o r s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t f o r p = 0 . 0 1 , e x c e p t i n g u r b a n s t a u s o f l o c a l i t y w i t h p = 0 . 0 3 . O n l y w ay t o d e v e lo p m e n t . T h is r e la t i o n m e a n s t h a t h ig h e r lo c a l d if f u se m o d e r n it y ( i n d ic a t e d b y lo w a r e co m p u t e d b y d iv id in g F E R T ILIT Y is co n n e ct e d in a n e g a t iv e v a lu e s o f FE R T ILIT Y ) b r in g s h ig h e r lo ca l d e v e lo p m e n t . A ll t h e f iv e in d ica t o r s t h a t a r e r a t e s t h e in d i c a t o r v a lu e s t o lo c a l p o p u la t io n in 2 0 1 1 a n d co n v e r t in g t h is v a lu e b y a I n t r a n sf o r m a t io n . Lo c a l it y p o p u la t io n a s co n t r o le v a r ia b le is a lso t r a n sf o r m e d b y In . 405 ROMANIA REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM F i g u r e 5 1 . H u m a n d e v e l o p m e n t l e v e l o f t h e c o u n t i e s , LH D I 2 0 1 2 F i g u r e 5 2 . H u m a n d e v e l o p m e n t l e v e l o f t h e c o u n t i e s , LH D I 2 0 0 2 D a t a so u r ce s: N I S N o t e : C o m p u t i n g a n d d e sig n : D u m it r u Sa n d u . G r o u p i n g in t e r v a ls: p o o r < 4 0 , lo w e r m id d le d e v e lo p e d 4 0 - 4 2 , m id d le d e v e lo p e d 4 1 - 4 3 , u p p e r m id d le d e v e lo p e d 4 4 - 4 5 , d e v e lo p e d > 4 5 . Lim it s o f in t e r v a ls a r e se t t le d b y n a t u r a l b r a k e m e t h o d f o r 2 0 1 2 . T h e u p p e r m id d le d e v e lo p e d in t e r v a l h a d n o ca se in 2 0 0 2 . 406 A n n e x 2 4 A . D e si g n a n d u se o f t h e L H D I in a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h in R o m a n i a Th e Local Hum an Develo pm en t Index (LHDI) is an ad ap t at io n o f t he Hum an Develop m ent Index (HDI) develo ped by UNDP. Dif ferent ver sio n s o f t he index w ere d esigned and im p lem en t ed in Rom ania since t he m id-90s. Four w aves o f m easur in g hum an d evelo p m en t at local o r co m m un it y level f ollow ed: • Co m m u n e (i.e., basic rural ad m in ist r at ive unit ) level, in a r esear ch p ro ject f o r t he W orld Bank (19 98 )121 • Village (i.e., so cio -t err it or ial unit w it h o u t an ad m in ist rat ive st at us) level, in a nat ional UNDP r ep o rt (20 05 ),122 • Basic ad m in ist r at ive unit s level, f avo r in g co m pariso n s bet w een sim ilar localit ies or bet w een d if fer en t r esident ial co m m u n it ies (2 008 )123, • Basic ad m in ist r at ive unit s level (co m m un es o r cit ies), also allo w ing f o r co m p ar iso n s bet w een dat a collect ed in d if feren t censu ses (2013, based on dat a fr om 2011 and 2002 censuses). Co m m u n e le v e l. Th e f ir st design and use o f LHDI in Rom ania d at es back t o a r esear ch project f o r t he W orld Ban k124. Th e Com m un e Develop m en t Index w as gen er at ed as a f act o r score f rom 11 indicat ors (see f igu re below ). V illa ge le v e l. Th e second design and large scale use o f LHDI in Rom ania w as f o r t he 2003-2005 Human Development Report (NHDR)for Romania (UNDP, National 2005), and it w as based on dat a from t he 1992 and 2002 censuses: " Th e NHDR is using a so-called Local Hum an Develop m ent Index t o at t em pt t o aggr egat e f or t he f ir st t im e a num b er o f hum an, social and m at er ial in d icat o r s (in hab it abilit y o r inhabit ancy con dit ions), t o m easur e d evelo pm en t and pot ent ials. Given t hat t his is an init ial at t em pt , t he Local Hum an Develo pm en t Index present ed in t his Report should be seen as a p ro xy m easur e for hum an d evelop m en t at t he r egional, cou nt y and village levels. As such, it d oes not at t em p t t o use t he sam e exact variab les as d oes t he Hum an Develop m en t Index and n eit h er d oes it focus on d ef ining p over t y rat es t hr ou gh est im at ion s o f incom es and con sum pt ion spending. Inst ead it f o cu ses on hum an capacit y, using t he ed ucat ion al st ock and t he o ccu pat io nal ch ar act er ist ics (agricult ur al / no n-agr icu lt u r al, em p lo ym en t / u nem p lo ym en t ). Th e d egree o f isolat ion, w hich is co n sider ed t o be d ir ect ly pro por t ional t o t he d ist an ce t o t he clo sest cit y, provided t hat t he village is an o ut lying one (t he cit y is not w it hin it s t er r it or y). Th e Local Hum an Develo pm ent Index p roves t o be valid also in explain ing o t h er eco no m ic and cult ur al t rend s." 125 121 D u m it r u Sa n d u ( co o r d in a t o r ) . 1 9 9 8 . C o m m u n i t y p o v e r t y i n R o m a n i a r u r a l a r e a s . F o u n d a t i o n f o r p o v e r t y a l l i v i a t i o n b y R o m a n i a S o c i a l D e v e l o p m e n t F u n d . W o r ld Ba n k , Bu cu r e st i ( h t t p :/ / d u m it r u . sa n d u . g o o g le p a g e s. c o m / Co m m u n it y p o v e r t y in R o m a n ia r u r a la r e a sl. p d f ) a n d D u m it r u Sa n d u , 1 9 9 9 , Co m m u n it y a n d Re gio n a l P o v e r t y in Ru r a l Ro m a n ia , in Ro m a n ia n Jo u r n a l o f So cio l o g y , v o l. X. 122 U N D P . ( 2 0 0 5 ) . N a t i o n a l F l u m a n D e v e l o p m e n t R e p o r t ( N F i D R j f o r R o m a n i a , p . 6 5 (a p r e v io u s f o r m o f LH D I , f r o m 1 9 9 8 , w o r k in g m a in ly w it h n o n - ce n su s d a t a ) . 123T h e d a t a f r o m t h i s v e r si o n o f t h e in d e x ( ca lle d in Ro m a n ia n I n d i c e l e D e z v o l t a r i i S o c i a l e L o c a l e , I D SL, Sa n d u 2 0 1 1 ) h a s b e e n la r ge ly u se d in t h e d o cu m e n t la y in g d o w n t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r d e sig n in g t h e a d m in ist r a t i v e r e gio n a l isa t i o n o f Ro m a n ia in 2 0 1 3 ( Sa n d u 2 0 1 3 ) . 124D u m it r u Sa n d u , 1 9 9 8 , o p . cit . 125 U N D P . ( 2 0 0 5 ) . N a t i o n a l H u m a n D e v e l o p m e n t R e p o r t ( N H D R ) f o r R o m a n i a , p. 6 5 (a p r e v io u s f o r m o f LH D I , w o r k i n g m a in ly w it h n o n - ce n su s d a t a ) . 407 Co m m u n e d e v e lo p m e n t a s a f i r st in d e x o f lo ca l h u m a n d e v e lo p m e n t in R o m a n ia , 1 9 9 8 P e r ce n t o f a ct iv e p o p u la t io n in a t gicu lt u r e . 19 9 2 g r P o p u la t io n co m p o s) a o n m u n f a v o r a b le t o k d e v e lo p m e n t is * Percent or 60+ yearn old population 1992* f I k -.4 0 f Sa la r ie d p e r so n s In co m u n e e n tre & rt e e s t o tPOO N a t a lit y r a t e r n Po v e rt y so cio -d e m o gr a p h ic 4 — - S t - - - - - T e m p o r a r y ne t-n rtt grat io n r a t e ! phenom ena Co m m u n e d e v e lo p m e n t in d e x 0 O u t -m lgr a o n r a t e 1 9 9 1 - I 9 S5 CQMDEV Liv in g llo o r p e r h o u se ( sq r m j# T V se t s to 1 0 0 0 in h a b it a n t s M odem e q u ip m e n t s a t T e le p h o n e se t s to 1 0 0 0 _ __ __ _ In h a b it a n t s_ _ _ _ _ _ t h e h o u se Livestock devei cement o o n vw iBo n a a u n it s o f ca t t le -^ 1 " ca t B e + 0 .3 5 'se in e r 0 .l2 'st ie e p + 0 .0 4 'p o u t t r y ) m a kt f agn aiiBgaJaaii - a ^ !(M2 de v «apm e nt « ttie ’ n e a r e st u rb a n ce n t re / ( d ist a n ce t o m e n e a r e st u rb a n a cce slb lllt y k u rb a n o e n t f e f * 116 The LHDI 2002 and t he LHDI 1992 w ere based on t he set o f ind icat or s sp ecif ied in t he f igu re below . 408 Component s of t he LHDI 1992 and t he LHDI 2002 m easuring local human developm ent at village level (DEVSAT) < > O 4— c <v CO LU E ~d(Vo Th e f u nct ion s and d esign o f DEVSAT in d ex are sim ilar bot h t o HDI and t o t he m ult iple d ep rivat ion index t hat is used in Unit ed Kingdom at t he level o f sm all ar eas (w ar d s)126. Th e m et ho do logical p rem ises f o r b uilding t h e LHDI at t he village level are sum m ar ized b elo w :127 "Village poverty is considered (...) to be a complex latent variable that cannot be measured directly. It is a kind of hidden nucleus within several spheres of more or less visible signs of poverty or development. The most visible aspects of community poverty are location factors; such location signs of poverty include: being isolated in relation with the regional road system or being a peripheral village within a commune. But these are rather week signs as there are villages which are quite well off without being commune centers or without being located very close to a highly modernized road. A family of signs that is closer to the real nucleus of village development or poverty is formed by a set of structural factors as human capital, social capital, public infrastructure, housing infrastructure, production units and housing durable goods. All these aspects indicate clear signs of community development. Having more educated people in a community, better housing and better public infrastructure, more developed economic units and more durable goods in the households is a clear sign of a wealthy community. Reaching by measurement these structural aspects of community development or poverty will give long lasting outcomes as the reference structures are characterized by high inertia. They do not change from day to day. The layer of signs that has the maximum proximity to community development/ poverty is formed by the following set of phenomena: migration, fertility. D ET R, I n d i c e s o f D e p r i v a t i o n 2 0 0 0 , R e g e n e r a t i o n R e s e a r c h S u m m a r y no. 3 1 ,2 0 0 0 . 127 D u m it r u Sa n d u ( Co o r d . ) 2 0 0 0 . V illa ge s o f Ro m a n ia : D e v e lo p m e n t , P o v e r t y a n d So cia l Ca p it a l. U p d a t i n g t a r g e t in g f o r RSD F, W o r l d Ba n k , Bu cu r e st i, p p . 1 0 -1 1 . 409 production and consumption. Knowing their key parameters allows for our understanding of the up to date state of the community poverty or well-being." Only par t o f t he sign s o f t he co m m un it y w ell-b ein g is availab le f o r d irect m easu rem en t w it h st at ist ical dat a f o r all t he villages o f t he co unt ry. Th ey are h ighlight ed t hr ou gh bold let t ers in t he figure below . Som e o t her variab les could be est im at ed by using t he grid syst em t hat is already used by t he Rom anian Social Develop m en t Fund. B lo ck s o f v a r ia b le s t h a t ca n b e u se d f o r m e a su r in g v ill a g e d e v e lo p m e n t / p o v e r t y Locat ion fact ors of vfliage development Constitutive st ruct ures of development Constitutive phenomena of development The unobserved core of village development / poverty N o t e : T h e ca t e g o r ie s o f v a r ia b le s t h a t f u n ct io n d e v e lo p m e n t f o r e a ch o f the e x ist in g w it h a v a ila b le d a t a v illa g e s o f t h e co u n t r y a re a nd tha t ha ve been h ig h lig h t e d th ro u g h u se d t o c o n s t r u c t t h e i n d e x o f v i ll a g e b o l d le t t e r s. P u b lic in f r a st r u c t u r e and h o u si n g d u r a b le g o o d s in d ic a t o r s a r e i n v o lv e d in a sse ssi n g v illa g e p o v e r t y t h r o u g h a s e t o f t e n p o v e r t y cr it e r ia . V illa g e iso la t io n a n d v i ll a g e c e n t r a l i t y v a r i a b l e s a r e m a r k e d b y i t a l i c l e t t e r s a n d a r e u s e d f o r t e st i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e p r o p o s e d m e t h o d o l o g y o f m e a su r i n g v i ll a g e d e v e l o p m e n t o r p o v e r t y . A v e r a g e le v e l o f h u m a n d e v e lo p m e n t b y v ill a g e s ( D EV SA T ) a n d b y co u n t i e s, 1 9 9 2 a n d 2 0 0 2 D E V SA T 1 9 9 2 Cu lt u r a l a r e a s B C N T SV V R G LI S BT V S A G D B PH D EV SA T 2 0 0 2 Co u n t ie s D E V SA T 2 0 0 2 * 1 0 0 / D E V SA T 1 9 9 2 V r a n ce a 5 2 .8 5 1 .1 9 6 .9 B a ca u 5 5 .1 5 2 .3 9 5 .1 N eam t 5 9 .9 5 3 .9 9 0 .0 Su c e a v a 6 0 .3 5 6 .7 9 4 .0 9 6 .0 I a si 5 1 .4 4 9 .4 G a la t i 5 9 .1 5 3 .8 9 1 .0 V a sl u i 4 7 .1 4 5 .5 9 6 .6 B o t o sa n i 4 8 .9 4 6 .9 9 5 .8 1 0 3 .5 A rge s 6 0 .8 6 2 .9 D a m b o v it a 6 2 .8 6 5 .4 1 0 4 .2 Pra h o va 6 6 .9 6 7 .8 1 0 1 .4 410 Cu lt u r a l a r e a s BZBR G T LILC L DJ M H O T D EV SA T 1 9 9 2 D EV SA T 2 0 0 2 B r a il a 5 6 .1 5 9 .6 Bu za u 5 5 .4 6 1 .8 1 1 1 .5 G iu r giu 5 7 .3 6 2 .8 1 0 9 .6 T e le o r m a n 5 7 .4 6 1 .9 1 0 7 .7 la lo m it a 6 0 .4 6 6 .1 1 0 9 .5 C a l a r a si 6 3 .5 6 5 .3 1 0 2 .8 M e h e d in t i 5 1 .9 5 7 .4 1 1 0 .8 5 5 .9 6 2 .1 111.1 GJ V L D O B R O G EA AB HD B V SB a MS CV H G B N SJ M M SM A D BH BA N A T B U C U R E ST I D E V SA T 1 9 9 2 Co u n t ie s D o lj D E V SA T 2 0 0 2 * 1 0 0 / 1 0 6 .3 O lt 5 7 .1 5 9 .7 1 0 4 .5 Go rj 5 8 .7 6 0 .5 1 0 3 .1 V a lce a 5 3 .5 5 7 .0 1 0 6 .7 C o n st a n t a 6 9 .4 6 4 .8 9 3 .3 T u lce a 6 2 .7 5 8 .7 9 3 .7 A lb a 6 0 .3 6 0 .5 1 0 0 .3 H u n e d o a ra 6 1 .0 5 8 .8 9 6 .5 B r a so v 7 7 .6 7 1 .2 9 1 .8 Si b i u 7 2 .4 6 8 .6 9 4 .6 Clu j 6 1 .5 6 3 .8 1 0 3 .8 M u re s 6 3 .6 6 2 .8 9 8 .8 C o v a sn a 6 9 .6 7 0 .3 1 0 1 .1 H a r gh it a 7 2 .3 7 0 .1 9 7 .0 B i st r i t a - N a sa u d 6 1 .3 6 7 .4 1 1 0 .0 Sa l a j 5 9 .3 6 0 .1 1 0 1 .3 1 0 7 .6 M a ra m u re s 6 4 .8 6 9 .7 Sa t u M a r e 6 1 .8 6 4 .6 1 0 4 .6 A ra d 6 6 .3 6 5 .3 9 8 .5 B ih o r 6 0 .3 6 2 .5 1 0 3 .7 C a r a s- Se v e r in 6 2 .4 6 2 .5 1 0 0 .1 T im is 6 6 .8 6 2 .3 9 3 .2 llf o v 7 8 .0 7 5 .0 9 6 .1 6 0 .4 6 0 .7 1 0 0 .5 DEVSAT is co m pu t ed using t he in d icat o r s fr om t he second f igu re in t h is an nex. Fact or sco res are t ran sf o rm ed by Hull scor e H=50+14* f act o r score. DEVCOM is a w eight ed aver age o f t he hum an d evelo p m en t index at t he village level (DEVSAT2002) and at co m m un e level. 411 ROMANIA REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM A v e r a g e le v e l o f co m m u n e s d e v e lo p m e n t , 2 0 0 2 Th e sam e LHDI algo r it h m w as t h en co m p u t ed f o r co m m u n es and cit ies. LHDI 2 00 8128 is com put ed so as t o allow co m pariso n s bet w een cit ies' and com m u nes' d evelo p m ent st ar t ing f rom a set o f seven in d icat o r s.129 It s no velt y r esides in t he abilit y t o m easur e by t he sam e set o f ind icat or s t he level o f local hum an or social d evelo p m en t f or bot h cit ies and com m un es. LHDI 2011 (UM ANLOC acr on ym , in Rom anian) keeps six out o f seven in dicat or s fr om LHDI 2008, as w ell as it s abilit y t o com pare hum an d evelo p m ent am o ng localit ies o f t he sam e or o f d iff eren t r esident ial st at us (com m u nes and cit ies). The im p ro vem ent is relat ed t o t he p o ssib ilit y t o com pare dat a fr om sever al censu ses by put t ing t hem in t he sam e dat a base f o r est im at ing t he index. 128 LH D I 2 0 0 8 , b u ilt o n se v e n in d ica t o r s, w a s p r o m o t e d u n d e r t h e n a m e o f in d e x o f lo ca l so cia l d e v e lo p m e n t ( In d ice le D e zv o lt a r ii So ci a le Lo ca le , I D SL) . 129 Sa n d u , D. ( 2 0 1 1 ) . So cia l d i sp a r it ie s in t h e r e gio n a l d e v e lo p m e n t a n d p o licie s o f Ro m a n ia . I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e v i e w o f S o c i a l R e se a r ch , 1 , 1 -3 0 . 412