Research Report No. 2001-3
®
Substituting SAT II:
Subject Tests for SAT I:
Reasoning Test:
Impact on Admitted Class
Composition and Quality
Brent Bridgeman, Nancy Burton,
and Frederick Cline
College Board Research Report No. 2001-3
ETS RR-01-07
Substituting SAT II:
Subject Tests for SAT I:
Reasoning Test:
Impact on Admitted Class
Composition and Quality
®
Brent Bridgeman, Nancy Burton,
and Frederick Cline
College Entrance Examination Board, New York, 2001
Brent Bridgeman is principal research scientist at Educational
Testing Service.
Nancy Burton is senior research scientist at ETS.
Frederick Cline is associate research data analyst at ETS.
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Contents
Abstract...............................................................1
Figures
1.
Percent of females in top 2⁄3 selected
under six alternative models.........................4
2.
Percent of each group selected by
HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for
upper 2⁄3 .......................................................4
3.
Percent of each ethnic/ESL subgroup
selected by HVM, H(SA), and
H(SA-NL) for upper 2⁄3 ................................5
4.
For students who took a Spanish
Subject Test, percent of each group
selected by HVM, H(SA), and
H(SA-NL) for upper 2⁄3 ................................6
5.
For students who took a Spanish
Subject Test, percent of selected
students in each group who are
successful (GPA 2.5 or higher) .....................7
6.
For students who took a Spanish
Subject Test, number of selected
students in each group who are
successful (GPA 2.5 or higher) .....................7
7.
Percent of each group selected by
HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for
upper 1⁄3 .......................................................8
Introduction ........................................................1
Method................................................................1
Sample .......................................................1
Analyses.....................................................2
Results and Discussion ........................................3
Selecting the Top One-third.......................6
Conclusion ..........................................................9
References ...........................................................9
Tables
1.
2.
Success (GPA 2.5 or greater) Rates for
Students Selected or Rejected in Top
2⁄3 by HVM and/or H(SA) ............................3
Success (GPA 2.5 or greater) Rates for
Students Selected or Rejected in Top
1⁄3 by HVM and/or H(SA) ............................8
iv
Abstract
Using data from a sample of 10 colleges at which most
students had taken both SAT® I: Reasoning Test and
SAT II: Subject Tests, we simulated the effects of making
selection decisions using SAT II scores in place of SAT I
scores. Specifically, we treated the students in each
college as forming the applicant pool for a more select
college, and then selected the top two-thirds (and top
one-third) of the students using high school grade point
average (HSGPA) combined with either SAT I scores or
the average of SAT II scores. Success rates, in terms of
freshman grade point averages, were virtually identical
for students selected by the different models. The
percent of African American, Asian American, and
White students selected varied only slightly across
models. Appreciably more Mexican American and
Other Latino students were selected with the model that
used SAT II scores in place of SAT I scores because these
students submitted Subject Test scores for the Spanish
Test on which they had high scores.
Key words: SAT II validity, achievement versus aptitude,
selection models
Introduction
The SAT I: Reasoning Test measures “verbal and
mathematical reasoning abilities, which develop over
time” (College Board, 1999a, p.3). The SAT II: Subject
Tests “measure your knowledge and skills in particular
subjects and your ability to apply that knowledge”
(College Board, 1999b, p.3). In terms of their overall
ability to predict freshman grades, the SAT I and SAT II
tests may be nearly identical. Using data from 22 highly
selective colleges that used the SAT and Achievement
tests (predecessors to the SAT I and SAT II), Crouse and
Trusheim (1988) found essentially no difference in the
ability of these two types of tests to predict freshman
grade point average (FGPA). This conclusion of no
difference held whether the tests were used by
themselves or combined with high school grades. They
suggest that factors other than the ability to predict
FGPA may then enter into decisions of which type of
test should be used.
One argument for using achievement tests rather
than general developed ability tests is the simple
assertion that general tests are biased and unfair
(McClelland, 1973; see Barrett and Depinet, 1991, for
a critical assessment of McClelland’s assertions and
McClelland, 1994, for his response to Barrett and
Depinet). Because of their closer link to school subjects,
though not to a particular well-specified curriculum,
SAT II tests may be seen as inherently less vulnerable to
complaints of test bias. Poor performance on SAT II:
Chemistry, for example, is more likely to be attributed
to the quality of the chemistry instruction in the school
or the student’s work in chemistry class rather than test
bias. A different argument suggests that even tests that
are not a direct measure of the curriculum will influence
instruction and thus should contain content that is
worth being taught (Linn, 1994; Messick, 1989;
Resnick and Resnick, 1992; Shepard, 1992, 1997).
Colleges in the University of California system now
weight SAT II more heavily than SAT I for making
admission decisions. For example, the University of
California: San Diego uses the following equation to
rank students: HSGPA x 1000 + [(SAT I Verbal + SAT I
Math + SAT II Writing + SAT II Math + SAT II third
test) x .8] (UCSD, 2000), and some have proposed
simply substituting SAT II for SAT I (e.g., Crouse and
Trusheim, 1988). Such a substitution could impact not
only the quality of the class selected, but also its gender
and ethnic composition.
The current research focuses on the consequences of
substituting SAT II tests for the SAT I in the selection of
a freshman class. Because the database to be used
includes freshman grades, we can model not only the
composition of the selected class, but also its academic
success, at least to the extent that success can be
defined by grades. This modeling is necessarily limited
to the data available, namely test scores and grades. We
do not intend to suggest that these indicators are or
should be the only factors considered in making
admission decisions. Nevertheless, as long as test scores
remain one of the important considerations in selective
admission, any differences produced by the tests in the
nature and composition of the students admitted are
relevant.
Method
Sample
Colleges in the sample were selected from a database of
23 colleges that was assembled for an SAT I validity
study that compared the predictive validity of the old
SAT to the new SAT I (Bridgeman, McCamley-Jenkins,
& Ervin, 2000). This database contains SAT I and SAT
II scores and responses on the Student Descriptive
Questionnaire (SDQ), including student reported high
1
school grade point average, ethnic identification, best
language (English, English and another, or another),
parental education, family income, and intended college
major. In addition, the database contains the freshman
grade point average (FGPA). Students in the database
were freshmen in 1995, so scores were available for
relatively recent versions of the SAT II tests including
Writing and Math IIC (advanced math that requires
calculator use).
From this database of admitted and enrolled
students, we selected only colleges in which at least 80
percent of the freshman class had taken SAT II: Writing
plus at least one other SAT II: Subject Test. Thus, at the
campuses studied, students who took SAT II tests were
the rule and not the exception. The 10 colleges included
in the final sample were: Barnard, Bowdoin, Colby,
Harvard, Northwestern, four campuses of the
University of California (Davis, Irvine, Los Angeles, and
San Diego), and Vanderbilt. Mean SAT I: verbal scores
in these colleges ranged from 524 to 731 and mean
SAT I: math scores ranged from 574 to 726; in all but
two of the colleges, mean verbal and math scores were
above 600. The range of scores within each institution
was more restricted than in the national sample, but
there was still substantial within-college variation with
standard deviations ranging from 58 to 92 (compared
to national standard deviations of about 110 for both
verbal and math scores).
Responses to the Student Descriptive Questionnaire
that students fill out when they register for the SAT
were used for ethnic group identification. Based on
these self reports, the sample contained 500 African
American, 4,725 Asian American, 923 Mexican
American, 542 Other Latino, and 6,086 White students.
There were 6,264 male and 7,610 female students.
Analyses
Freshmen at each of the 10 colleges who had scores on
SAT II: Writing Test and at least one other SAT II test
were treated as if they formed an applicant pool for an
even more selective institution. At each college, twothirds of the “applicant pool” was “selected” based on
various score composites. A second set of analyses
“selected” the top one-third. Because any realistic
selection scenario would include the high school grade
point average (H), we decided to include H in each
composite even though this would have the effect of
muting the differences between selections made by
alternative models. The self-reported H scores in this
select sample had a narrow range with no student
reporting an average lower than C, and 92 percent of
the students reported grade averages in one of the four
2
highest categories (B+ through A+). These grades were
placed on an SAT-like scale by setting a C to 400 and
proceeding in 50-point increments to 750 for an A+,
producing a scale with a mean of 669 and a standard
deviation of 61. Within-college standard deviations for
H ranged from 40 to 63. In each model, the composite
score was formed by equally weighting each test score
and giving H nominally equal weight with the combined
test scores (e.g., if there were two SAT I scores [verbal
and mathematical] and one SAT II score, these scores
would be summed and H would be multiplied by 3 and
added to the total). The technique of using data on
enrolled students to model the results of employing
different admission strategies has been used for many
years (see, for example, Kane, 1998; Wightman, 1997;
Willingham and Breland, 1982; and Wing and Wallach,
1971).
The following composites were used:
(Note: H=high school GPA; V=SAT I-Verbal; M=SAT IMath; W=SAT II: Writing)
H+V+M (HVM)
H+Subject Test Average (H[SA])
H+Subject Test Average excluding language tests
(H[SA-NL])
H+V+M+W (HVMW)
H+V+M+best Subject Test (HVMB)
H+V+M+best non-language Subject Test (HVM[B-NL])
The averages that excluded language tests were
included in the analyses because of the possibly unique
role that language tests could play. Most Subject Tests
are measures of school learning, but when language
tests are taken by native speakers of those languages,
they are measures primarily of out-of-school learning.
Students selected by one of the new composites with
SAT II scores were compared to students selected by the
traditional HVM index. We defined successful students
as those who attained a freshman grade point average
of at least 2.5. (We also investigated a freshman GPA of
2.0 or better as the criterion, but the overall success rate
was 87 percent, allowing for little variation among the
different selection methods.) The percent of successful
students selected was compared for four groups: (1)
students selected by both the new composite and
traditional index, (2) students rejected by both methods,
(3) students selected by the new but rejected by the
traditional, and (4) students selected by the traditional
but rejected by the new.
Results and Discussion
Table 1 compares the percent of students who were
successful when selected by HVM to the percent who
were successful when selected by H plus the average of
the Subject Tests (H[SA]). Because of the high
correlation between SAT I and the average of the SAT II
tests (r = .84 for the total sample), and because H was
used in both selection methods, the selection decision
was the same under both models for 86 percent of the
students. The comparison of Group 1 (students selected
by both procedures) and Group 2 (students rejected by
both procedures) suggests that valid selections can be
made even though the initial selection pools were
already quite restricted because they consisted of only
students who had already been admitted to and enrolled
in selective colleges. The comparison of Groups 3 and 4
(the 14 percent of the students who were selected by one
method but rejected by the other) indicated that the
percentage of successful students in these two groups
was nearly identical.
A complementary analysis that focused on grade
averages rather than percent of successful students
reached the same conclusion. In this analysis,
standardized differences in FGPA (difference divided by
the weighted within group standard deviation) were
computed within each college comparing the FGPA of
students in Group 1 with students in Group 2 and
comparing students in Group 3 with students in Group
4. These standardized differences were weighted by the
number of students in the relevant groups in each
college and averaged across colleges. The standardized
difference between groups 1 and 2 was 0.82 (standard
error = 0.06) indicating that grades of students selected
by both methods were substantially above the grades of
students rejected by both methods. The difference
between groups 3 and 4 was only 0.03 (standard error
= 0.05). Thus, with freshman grades as the criterion,
there is no reason to favor either SAT I or SAT II in
making selection decisions. The same was true for the
comparison that excluded language tests from the
Subject Test average.
As expected, there was even more overlap in the
models that added Subject Tests to V and M rather than
replacing V and M. In the model that added Writing, 93
percent of the selection decisions were the same as with
HVM alone. Similarly, for HVMB (adding the best
Subject Test score to the SAT I scores and high school
grades), 93 percent of the decisions were identical, and
for HVM(B-NL), 94 percent were identical. There were
no significant differences in any of the comparisons
between the FGPAs of the groups admitted by one
model and rejected by the other.
Although the overall success of students selected
using SAT I is comparable to the success of students
selected using SAT II, there might still be differences in
the ethnic or gender composition of groups selected by
the different criteria. Figure 1 shows the percent of the
pool of female students that was selected by being in the
top two-thirds for each selection index. Each percentage
was slightly below the 66.7 percent that would be
expected if there were no gender differences on any of
the selection instruments. Although there was relatively
little variation among the various indices, including SAT
II: Writing Test along with SAT I scores increased the
percentage of women selected by a small but statistically
significant 2.5 percentage points (standard error of each
percentage is about 0.7).
As indicated in Figure 2, more substantial differences
were evident in the ethnic group comparison of HVM
selections with selections that combined H with the
average of the Subject Tests (H[SA]) and selections that
combined H with the average of the non-language
Subject Tests (H[SA-NL]). In particular, the proportion
of Mexican American and Other Latino students
selected would increase if H(SA) were used in place of
HVM. Because we were keeping the size of the admitted
TABLE 1
Success (GPA 2.5 or greater) Rates for Students Selected or Rejected in Top 2⁄3 by HVM and/or H(SA)
Group 1 (in both)
Group 2 (out both)
% GPA
Group
n
Group 3 (in H[SA] only)
% GPA
Group 4 (in HVM only)
% GPA
% GPA
2.5+
n
2.5+
n
2.5+
n
2.5+
Men
Women
3,916
4,318
84
90
1,508
2,175
61
71
380
609
71
78
460
508
72
81
African Am.
Asian Am.
Mexican Am.
Other Latino
White
Total
119
2,895
280
226
4,054
8,234
88
84
80
86
90
87
326
1,147
461
201
125
3,683
65
63
56
58
75
67
27
329
140
93
327
989
85
71
59
72
85
75
28
354
42
29
448
968
75
69
60
72
85
77
3
Figure 1. Percent of females in top 2⁄3 selected under six alternative models.
Figure 2. Percent of each group selected by HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for upper 2⁄3.
4
class fixed, at least one of the other groups had to show
a reduction in this zero-sum game. Numerically, the loss
of White and Asian American students balanced the
gains of Mexican American and Latino students,
although the percentage loss in each of these groups was
small because of the relatively large numbers of White
and Asian American students in the sample. The
percentage of the eligible African American group that
was selected was virtually identical with either model.
Figure 3 divides the Asian American, Mexican
American, and Other Latino groups by the language
categories from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire.
Students who responded “English and another” or
“Another” to the question on best language were
classified in the English as a second language (ESL)
category. For the Asian American ESL students, H(SA)
selection resulted in only a slight increase over HVM
selection, but in both Latino ESL groups, almost twice
as many students were admitted with H(SA) as with
HVM. The minimal impact on Asian Americans
compared to the Latino groups may be explained by
differential test-taking patterns; over 40 percent of the
students in the Latino groups took an SAT II Spanish
Test, but only 8 percent of the Asian Americans took an
Asian language test.
When language tests were excluded from the Subject
Test average, the increase in the number of the Mexican
American and Other Latino groups essentially
disappeared; the small apparent increase remaining was
not statistically significant (standard errors of 1.6 and
2.2 respectively for the percentages in the Mexican
American and Other Latino groups). The impact of
including or excluding the language tests is somewhat
muted because only 43 percent of the Mexican
American students and 51 percent of the Other Latino
students took one of the Spanish Subject Tests (either
Spanish or Spanish with Listening). In order to gauge
the impact of the language test on the likelihood of
selection, we examined the sample of Mexican
American and Other Latino students who had taken
one of the Spanish Tests. As shown in Figure 4, in both
groups almost twice as many students were selected
with the index including the Subject Test average as by
the index that used V and M scores. Excluding the
Spanish Test from the Subject Test average markedly
reduced the number of students selected from these
groups. Recall that roughly half of the weight in the
prediction equation is on the high school average and,
because most students take three Subject Tests, the
Spanish Test is approximately one-third of the Subject
Test weight (or 1⁄6 of the total weight); given this
relatively small weight, the effect of including or
Figure 3. Percent of each ethnic/ESL subgroup selected by HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for upper 2⁄3.
5
excluding the Spanish Test is indeed dramatic. Test
means show the reasons for this relative advantage. In
the combined Hispanic groups, the mean score on the
Spanish Tests (combining the tests with and without
listening) was 147 points higher than the mean score on
SAT I: verbal (666 vs. 519; SDs 90 and 91, respectively);
in the White sample, the mean score on the Spanish
Tests was 85 points lower than the mean score on SAT
I: verbal (556 vs. 641; SDs 89 and 77, respectively).
For this group of students who took a Spanish Test,
Figure 4 indicates that the selection index that included
the average of the Subject Tests resulted in the selection
of more Hispanic students than selections based on
HVM. We next determined how successful these
students were, defining success as achieving a freshman
GPA of 2.5 or better, and again using the sample of
students who had taken one of the Spanish Subject
Tests. For the sample of Mexican American students,
including those who were not selected with any of the
indices, 59 percent were successful by this criterion. In
the Other Latino sample, the overall success rate was 69
percent for the 2.5 or better criterion. As indicated in
Figure 5, the students selected by HVM were most
successful on a percentage basis; 79 percent of the
Mexican American students selected by HVM were
successful compared to 66 percent for H(SA). For the
Other Latino students, 84 percent selected by HVM
were successful compared to 76 percent for H(SA). If
maximizing the percent of successful students in the
Hispanic groups were the goal, selections should be
based on HVM. However, recall that many more
Hispanic students were selected with H(SA) than with
HVM. If emphasis is placed on the number of successful
students selected from the subgroup instead of on the
percent of students in the selected subgroup who are
successful, a different conclusion is reached. As
indicated in Figure 6, the number of successful Hispanic
students was greatest for selections based on the index
that used the average of the Subject Tests, including the
Spanish Subject Test. If admitting the maximum
number of potentially successful Hispanic students were
the goal, selections should be based on H(SA).
Selecting the Top One-third
The above analyses assumed that, within each institution,
two-thirds of the class would be selected. The following
analyses were based on selecting the top one-third within
each institution. For the three primary selection models
(HVM, H[SA], and H[SA-NL]), the proportion of
women selected was the same, 31 percent. Because the
pool contained slightly more women than men (7,610 to
Figure 4. For students who took a Spanish Subject Test, percent of each group selected by HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for
upper 2⁄3.
6
Figure 5. For students who took a Spanish Subject Test, percent of selected students in each group who are successful (GPA
2.5 or higher).
Figure 6. For students who took a Spanish Subject Test, number of selected students in each group who are
successful (GPA 2.5 or higher).
7
Figure 7. Percent of each group selected by HVM, H(SA), and H(SA-NL) for upper 1⁄3.
6,246), the number of women selected was almost the
same as the number of men selected (for H[SA], 2,376
women and 2,284 men were selected). As with the top
two-third selection, adding SAT II: Writing Test to HVM
yielded an increase of about 2 percentage points to the
percentage of women selected (from 30.7 percent to 32.6
percent), though 93 percent of the selections are the same
with HVM as with HVMW. Figure 7 shows the percent
selected from each ethnic group for each of the three
major indices. The general pattern is the same as was
observed for the top two-third selections; for all of the
selection models, White students were overrepresented,
Asian American students were proportionally
represented, and the other groups were underrepresented
relative to their numbers in the applicant population.
Mexican American, Other Latino, and ESL students were
somewhat more likely to be admitted with the model that
used the average of the Subject Tests than with the model
that used SAT I V and M scores.
Success rates, once again defining success as
achieving a grade point average of at least 2.5, were
comparable across the different selection models. Table
TABLE 2
Success (GPA 2.5 or greater) Rates for Students Selected or Rejected in Top 1⁄3 by HVM and/or H(SA)
Group 1 (in both)
Group 2 (out both)
% GPA
Group
8
n
Group 3 (in H[SA] only)
% GPA
Group 4 (in HVM only)
% GPA
% GPA
2.5+
n
2.5+
n
2.5+
n
2.5+
Men
Women
African Am.
Asian Am.
Mexican Am.
Other Latino
1,869
1,860
34
1,239
86
77
90
95
94
91
83
96
3,495
4,755
437
12,816
781
415
69
77
70
69
61
67
415
516
16
317
30
32
85
88
88
87
73
78
485
479
13
353
26
25
84
88
85
81
88
88
White
Total
1,983
3,729
93
92
3,246
8,250
81
74
377
931
89
87
480
964
88
86
2 shows the number of students selected by both
methods, rejected by both methods, and selected by one
but rejected by the other. For each of these groups, the
percent of the selected students who were successful is
also shown. Success rates for students in Group 3
(selected by H[SA] and not by HVM) were virtually
identical to success rates in Group 4 (selected by HVM
but not H[SA]), except in the two Hispanic groups in
which success rates were higher for the HVM selections.
The relatively low success percentages in Group 2
(rejected by both HVM and H[SA]) is evidence for the
validity of selections based on high school average and
either SAT I or SAT II test scores.
Conclusion
Colleges that are selecting students from applicant pools
that are similar to the enrolled students in this study
could select a class with comparable freshman grades
whether they used the SAT II: Subject Tests or the SAT
I: Reasoning Test. Switching to the SAT II test average
would have a minimal impact on the number of women
or African American students selected. Noticeably more
Mexican American and Other Latino students would be
selected with the Subject Test average, especially if
students could submit the Spanish or Spanish with
Listening Subject Tests. Adding the SAT II: Writing Test
to the SAT I: Reasoning Test would increase the
proportion of women selected, but by less than 3
percentage points.
All of the institutions in the current sample were at
least moderately selective, and most were highly
selective. Further study is needed before generalizations
to less selective institutions and more diverse applicant
pools could be made. Finally, it is important to
recognize that we have modeled only one type of
information that goes into complex admission
decisions. As noted by Bowen and Bok (1998), “Talk of
basing admissions decisions strictly on test scores and
grades assumes a model of admissions radically
different from the one that exists today” (p. 29).
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