Policies to mitigate natural hazards and terrorism are facing increasing scrutiny, such as the be... more Policies to mitigate natural hazards and terrorism are facing increasing scrutiny, such as the benefit-cost test. The benefits are the losses that can be avoided by the mitigation actions. For sound policy-making, it is therefore necessary that the various types of losses and major factors af-fecting them be identified and that metrics be established for their measurement in accordance with economic principles. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for the analysis and mea-surement of ordinary economic impacts and two categories of impacts that have recently gained the attention of analysts and policy makers, but for which operational definitions are lacking. The first is resilience, which refers to how the economy manages to keep functioning and how quickly it recovers. The second major extension of loss estimation pertains to behavioral and systems linkages. These refer to considerations unique to disasters that cause indirect impacts to be orders of magnitude greater than...
Economic resilience is a prerequisite for sustainability. If cities cannot cope with short-run na... more Economic resilience is a prerequisite for sustainability. If cities cannot cope with short-run natural and man-made disasters, they will not thrive in the long run. This presentation will explain the role of economic resilience in the survival of cities and how experience with disasters can be transformed into actions that promote sustainability. I begin with a discussion of features of cities that make them both vulnerable and resilient. I then define economic resilience and offer an operational metric. Next I discuss individual tactics to implement it at the micro, meso, and macroeconomic levels. Then I summarize studies of the relative effectiveness of resilience tactics and their costs. I conclude with a discussion of broader strategies to make cities more resilient in the short-run and emphasize the importance of translating them into adaptations for the long-run. A key strategy is to translate ingenuity in coping with disasters into decisions and practices that continuously promote sustainability.
Economic Consequences of Terrorism (3 Integrated Proposals) Project Technical Description: This p... more Economic Consequences of Terrorism (3 Integrated Proposals) Project Technical Description: This project will continue to enhance, broaden and transition the CREATE Economic Consequence Analysis Framework. I will continue to coordinate and perform research on integrating behavioral considerations and resilience into economic models of an economy impacted by a terrorist attack, and to maintain and upgrade CREATE’s suite of economic consequence analysis models. I will place a greater emphasis on transforming CREATE’s sophisticated/high performance computing CGE models to “reduced form ” regression equations that can readily be used in-house by DHS staff. Also, I will begin a major thrust area on Enterprise Risk Management.
Policies to mitigate natural hazards and terrorism are facing increasing scrutiny, such as the be... more Policies to mitigate natural hazards and terrorism are facing increasing scrutiny, such as the benefit-cost test. The benefits are the losses that can be avoided by the mitigation actions. For sound policy-making, it is therefore necessary that the various types of losses and major factors af-fecting them be identified and that metrics be established for their measurement in accordance with economic principles. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for the analysis and mea-surement of ordinary economic impacts and two categories of impacts that have recently gained the attention of analysts and policy makers, but for which operational definitions are lacking. The first is resilience, which refers to how the economy manages to keep functioning and how quickly it recovers. The second major extension of loss estimation pertains to behavioral and systems linkages. These refer to considerations unique to disasters that cause indirect impacts to be orders of magnitude greater than...
Economic resilience is a prerequisite for sustainability. If cities cannot cope with short-run na... more Economic resilience is a prerequisite for sustainability. If cities cannot cope with short-run natural and man-made disasters, they will not thrive in the long run. This presentation will explain the role of economic resilience in the survival of cities and how experience with disasters can be transformed into actions that promote sustainability. I begin with a discussion of features of cities that make them both vulnerable and resilient. I then define economic resilience and offer an operational metric. Next I discuss individual tactics to implement it at the micro, meso, and macroeconomic levels. Then I summarize studies of the relative effectiveness of resilience tactics and their costs. I conclude with a discussion of broader strategies to make cities more resilient in the short-run and emphasize the importance of translating them into adaptations for the long-run. A key strategy is to translate ingenuity in coping with disasters into decisions and practices that continuously promote sustainability.
Economic Consequences of Terrorism (3 Integrated Proposals) Project Technical Description: This p... more Economic Consequences of Terrorism (3 Integrated Proposals) Project Technical Description: This project will continue to enhance, broaden and transition the CREATE Economic Consequence Analysis Framework. I will continue to coordinate and perform research on integrating behavioral considerations and resilience into economic models of an economy impacted by a terrorist attack, and to maintain and upgrade CREATE’s suite of economic consequence analysis models. I will place a greater emphasis on transforming CREATE’s sophisticated/high performance computing CGE models to “reduced form ” regression equations that can readily be used in-house by DHS staff. Also, I will begin a major thrust area on Enterprise Risk Management.
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Papers by Adam Rose