skip to main content
10.1145/3583780.3615219acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagescikmConference Proceedingsconference-collections
short-paper

Learning Invariant Representations for New Product Sales Forecasting via Multi-Granularity Adversarial Learning

Published: 21 October 2023 Publication History

Abstract

Sales forecasting during the launch of new products has always been a challenging task, due to the lack of historical sales data. The dynamic market environment and consumer preferences also increase the uncertainty of predictions. Large chains face even greater difficulties due to their extensive presence across various regions. Traditional time-series forecasting methods usually rely on statistical models and empirical judgments, which are difficult to handle large, variable data and often fail to achieve satisfactory performance for new products. In this paper, we propose a Multi-granularity AdversaRial Learning framework (MARL) to leverage knowledge from old products and improve the quality of invariant representations for more accurate sales predictions. To evaluate our proposed method, we conducted extensive experiments on both a real-world dataset from a prominent international Café chain and a public dataset. The results demonstrated that our method is more effective than the existing state-of-the-art baselines for new product sales forecasting.

References

[1]
Isabela Albuquerque, Jo ao Monteiro, Mohammad Darvishi, Tiago H Falk, and Ioannis Mitliagkas. 2020. Adversarial target-invariant representation learning for domain generalization. (2020).
[2]
Lennart Baardman, Igor Levin, Georgia Perakis, and Divya Singhvi. 2017. Leveraging comparables for new product sales forecasting. Available at SSRN 3086237 (2017).
[3]
Samaneh Beheshti-Kashi, Hamid Reza Karimi, Klaus-Dieter Thoben, Michael Lütjen, and Michael Teucke. 2015. A survey on retail sales forecasting and prediction in fashion markets. Systems Science & Control Engineering, Vol. 3, 1 (2015), 154--161.
[4]
Minghao Chen, Shuai Zhao, Haifeng Liu, and Deng Cai. 2020. Adversarial-learned loss for domain adaptation. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 34. 3521--3528.
[5]
Jacob Devlin, Ming-Wei Chang, Kenton Lee, and Kristina Toutanova. 2018. Bert: Pre-training of deep bidirectional transformers for language understanding. arXiv preprint arXiv:1810.04805 (2018).
[6]
Vijay Ekambaram, Kushagra Manglik, Sumanta Mukherjee, Surya Shravan Kumar Sajja, Satyam Dwivedi, and Vikas Raykar. 2020. Attention based multi-modal new product sales time-series forecasting. In Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining. 3110--3118.
[7]
Vivek F Farias, Srikanth Jagabathula, and Devavrat Shah. 2017. Building optimized and hyperlocal product assortments: A nonparametric choice approach. Available at SSRN 2905381 (2017).
[8]
Yaroslav Ganin, Evgeniya Ustinova, Hana Ajakan, Pascal Germain, Hugo Larochelle, Francc ois Laviolette, Mario Marchand, and Victor Lempitsky. 2016. Domain-adversarial training of neural networks. The journal of machine learning research, Vol. 17, 1 (2016), 2096--2030.
[9]
Ian Goodfellow, Jean Pouget-Abadie, Mehdi Mirza, Bing Xu, David Warde-Farley, Sherjil Ozair, Aaron Courville, and Yoshua Bengio. 2020. Generative adversarial networks. Commun. ACM, Vol. 63, 11 (2020), 139--144.
[10]
Hailin Hu, MingJian Tang, and Chengcheng Bai. 2020. Datsing: Data augmented time series forecasting with adversarial domain adaptation. In Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information & Knowledge Management. 2061--2064.
[11]
Ye Huang, Wei Huang, Shiwei Tong, Zhenya Huang, Qi Liu, Enhong Chen, Jianhui Ma, Liang Wan, and Shijin Wang. 2021. STAN: Adversarial Network for Cross-domain Question Difficulty Prediction. In 2021 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM). IEEE, 220--229.
[12]
Kenneth B Kahn. 2014. Solving the problems of new product forecasting. Business Horizons, Vol. 57, 5 (2014), 607--615.
[13]
Tristan Karb, Niklas Kühl, Robin Hirt, and Varvara Glivici-Cotruta. 2020. A network-based transfer learning approach to improve sales forecasting of new products. arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.06978 (2020).
[14]
Diederik P Kingma and Jimmy Ba. 2014. Adam: A method for stochastic optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6980 (2014).
[15]
Haoliang Li, Sinno Jialin Pan, Shiqi Wang, and Alex C Kot. 2018. Domain generalization with adversarial feature learning. In Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition. 5400--5409.
[16]
Spyros Makridakis, Steven C Wheelwright, and Rob J Hyndman. 2008. Forecasting methods and applications. John wiley & sons.
[17]
Toshihiko Matsuura and Tatsuya Harada. 2020. Domain generalization using a mixture of multiple latent domains. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 34. 11749--11756.
[18]
Sinno Jialin Pan, Ivor W Tsang, James T Kwok, and Qiang Yang. 2010. Domain adaptation via transfer component analysis. IEEE transactions on neural networks, Vol. 22, 2 (2010), 199--210.
[19]
Elizabeth Paton. 2018. H&M, a fashion giant, has a problem: $4.3 billion in unsold clothes. The New York Times (2018).
[20]
Rui Shao, Xiangyuan Lan, Jiawei Li, and Pong C Yuen. 2019. Multi-adversarial discriminative deep domain generalization for face presentation attack detection. In Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. 10023--10031.
[21]
Pawan Kumar Singh, Yadunath Gupta, Nilpa Jha, and Aruna Rajan. 2019. Fashion retail: Forecasting demand for new items. arXiv preprint arXiv:1907.01960 (2019).
[22]
Geri Skenderi, Christian Joppi, Matteo Denitto, and Marco Cristani. 2021. Well googled is half done: Multimodal forecasting of new fashion product sales with image-based google trends. arXiv preprint arXiv:2109.09824 (2021).
[23]
RM Steenbergen. 2019. New Product Forecasting with Analogous Products: Applying Random Forest and Quantile Regression Forest to forecasting and inventory management. Master's thesis. University of Twente.
[24]
Christian Szegedy, Vincent Vanhoucke, Sergey Ioffe, Jon Shlens, and Zbigniew Wojna. 2016. Rethinking the inception architecture for computer vision. In Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition. 2818--2826.
[25]
Hui Tang and Kui Jia. 2020. Discriminative adversarial domain adaptation. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 34. 5940--5947.
[26]
Rajesh Kumar Vashishtha, Vibhati Burman, Rajan Kumar, Srividhya Sethuraman, Abhinaya R Sekar, and Sharadha Ramanan. 2020. Product age based demand forecast model for fashion retail. arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.05278 (2020).
[27]
Shanshan Wang and Lei Zhang. 2020. Self-adaptive re-weighted adversarial domain adaptation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.00223 (2020).
[28]
Kelvin Xu, Jimmy Ba, Ryan Kiros, Kyunghyun Cho, Aaron Courville, Ruslan Salakhudinov, Rich Zemel, and Yoshua Bengio. 2015. Show, attend and tell: Neural image caption generation with visual attention. In International conference on machine learning. PMLR, 2048--2057.
[29]
Chaohui Yu, Jindong Wang, Yiqiang Chen, and Meiyu Huang. 2019. Transfer learning with dynamic adversarial adaptation network. In 2019 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM). IEEE, 778--786.
[30]
Yabin Zhang, Hui Tang, Kui Jia, and Mingkui Tan. 2019. Domain-symmetric networks for adversarial domain adaptation. In Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF conference on computer vision and pattern recognition. 5031--5040.

Cited By

View all

Index Terms

  1. Learning Invariant Representations for New Product Sales Forecasting via Multi-Granularity Adversarial Learning

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Conferences
    CIKM '23: Proceedings of the 32nd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
    October 2023
    5508 pages
    ISBN:9798400701245
    DOI:10.1145/3583780
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

    Sponsors

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 21 October 2023

    Permissions

    Request permissions for this article.

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. adversarial learning
    2. new product sales forecasting
    3. transfer learning

    Qualifiers

    • Short-paper

    Funding Sources

    • Natural Science Foundation of China

    Conference

    CIKM '23
    Sponsor:

    Acceptance Rates

    Overall Acceptance Rate 1,861 of 8,427 submissions, 22%

    Upcoming Conference

    CIKM '25

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)79
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)4
    Reflects downloads up to 09 Jan 2025

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media