Harry Tchilinguirian

𝐓𝐈/𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰; 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 In our latest crude market commentary, by Neil Crosby: > Start of June trade month sees MEH premiums to Cushing rise, landing WTI more expensive in NWE but still overall competitive > Turnaround in USGC balances, ‘excessive’ speculative length in Brent, cautious TD25 outlook to see TI/Brent spreads narrow in the coming weeks > Asian demand for heavy crudes apparently strong for now, while SE Asia light grades weaken, potentially evidence of relatively poor marginal Asian demand > Johan Sverdrup weakness sees arb to USGC open against Guyana/Brazil Read full commentary: https://hubs.li/Q02vkhjw0 #oott #oilandgas #commoditytrading #fintech #trading #crude #insight #data

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💡 Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US reduced crude/condensates exports in August (m-o-m), pushing their combined share of global seaborne exports to a multiyear low. In this insight we explore some of the drivers behind each producer’s loss of market share in August and key factors to consider for supply from these countries going forwards. Vortexa's Head of Market Intelligence & Analysis (MENA, Jay M., discusses Crude/condensate exports from ‘Big-3’ in the latest insight "‘Big-3’ lose share of global crude exports in August" Read more: https://bit.ly/4gfrsFt #Vortexa #VortexaInsights #big3 #crude #oilandgas

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Narrow window of opportunity for OPEC+ ·      Contrary to received market wisdom, Argus believes OPEC+ Ministers meeting on 2 June have scope to relax their second tier of voluntary production cuts amounting to 2.2 mb/d, which are due to be reviewed before potentially lapsing at the end of June. ·      What’s more, they can raise production without substantially adding to global oil inventories in the second half of 2024 and therefore without provoking markedly lower crude prices. ·      Although total 2024 annual (Y-o-Y) oil demand growth of +1.4 mb/d is closely matched by similar growth in non-OPEC supply, we see sequential (Q-o-Q) oil demand growth through the second half of this year potentially outstripping gains in non-OPEC supply. ·      However, just because OPEC+ could hike supplies in 2H 2024 doesn’t mean they will. ·      And with market expectations widely aligned on an extension of current policy, the group may seek to avoid announcing any change that could be interpreted bearishly.   ·      Moreover, from 2025 onwards a combination of weaker oil demand growth alongside resilient non-OPEC supply means that any production respite for OPEC+ now is likely to prove short-lived. ·      When Ministers meet next in December, Argus forecasts imply that not only will their first tier of some 3.6 mb/d of output cuts potentially have to be extended into 2025 and 2026, but also that a portion of any incremental barrels released in 2H24 would again have to be reined back in to avoid an accumulation of surplus stocks.  ·      Given looser market fundamentals expected for 2025 and 2026, major uncertainties around the global economy and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, plus rising competitive pressures both within and outside the producer group, Ministers may in the end simply kick the can down the road on 2 June, and leave any official changes to supply limits until what promises to be a rather complicated follow-up meeting in December. ·      Don’t be surprised however if there is some divergence between a “steady as she goes” narrative on the one hand, and actual post-meeting production on the other. 

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London Metal Exchange week is always a good opportunity to take the pulse of the global metals markets. An unexpected highlight for me was the investment panel on the afternoon of the LME's Monday seminar. Here's my take on the discussion. Energy transition story rekindles fund interest in metals: https://lnkd.in/e9SUvrJ4

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Gunvor, Trafigura and Vitol expect oil at $60-70. The world's largest traders predict a reduction in oil prices - helping the US Democrats. Gunvor and Trafigura forecast that the price of black gold will remain in the range of $60-70 per barrel due to weak demand in China and growing supply in the market. Ben Luckock of Trafigura told Reuters that the raw material could reduce its price to $60 very soon. The justified price of a barrel is $70, since the world produces more raw materials than the market needs, and this surplus will increase further, said Torbjorn Tornqvist of Gunvor. Weak demand in China is also a concern, Luckock said. Earlier, Vitol told Bloomberg that China is almost at the peak of gasoline consumption, as the country switches to electric traction. https://lnkd.in/esbgk39h

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