Stephenson-Mohl Group

The US 🇺🇸 Election Digested. Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and will return to the White House after a four-year absence with what ultimately was a more comfortable victory than predicted by the polls, both in terms of the overall vote and electoral college votes. Symbolically it was the result in Wisconsin which took him over the line - one of the key ‘blue wall’ states along with Michigan and Pennsylvania all of which look like ending up in the red (Trump) column, replicating the 2016 pattern when Hilary Clinton was also defeated in all three states. Pittsburgh, the second largest city in Pennsylvania, a former industrial centre where steel and coal were once dominant (and which therefore has some similarities with North East England) was a key battleground - and the closeness of the race could be evidenced by the profusion of posters on residential streets as well as a glut of advertising on all forms of media - both sides are said to have spent over £100 million dollars in Pennsylvania alone. Both Trump and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris held eve of poll rallies in Pittsburgh - with the themes quite different. While Harris made a particular appeal to women voters around freedom (abortion rights was a key campaign issue) Trump concentrated on the economy and immigration, together with his previous record as a strong President. In some ways the Trump campaign was not dissimilar from themes we have seen in recent UK elections - and like the UK it was the economy that was rated the most important of all issues according to polls, with the economic challenges of the last few years as big an election issue in the US as in the UK earlier this year. Intriguingly there is evidence that Trump made significant gains at this election among some unlikely groups - young voters and Latino voters especially, and this may well have been the key to the White House. The Democrats have regularly suffered from being perceived as the ‘establishment’ party in the US - the party of the east and west coast and of college graduates. This makes it difficult for them both to attract new voters and to campaign on a theme of ‘change’ which in today’s volatile world is often key to election victory. Trump had no such issues (whatever his personal back-story) and campaigned directly on the economic troubles and fears of millions of voters across the US and particularly in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Ultimately it carried him to victory.

It's election day in the USA 🇺🇸 - Are you wondering what's been happening on the ground in key swing state contests? 🔴 🗳 🔵 Here are Stephenson Mohl Group's quick takeaways on what might have been shaping the US Presidential Election result: 🗽 1. A Coin Toss Election- Overall the race looks to be a dead heat both in overall polling numbers and extrapolations state by state - The all important electoral college vote could be settled with a single figure vote margin or even a tie based on some projections. 🗽2. A Huge Gender Divide- Women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are backing Donald Trump - by a margin of between 10 and 20 points. (This is even true among younger voters.) Given women have a higher propensity to vote this could be the key to the election. Women have both registered and voted at higher rates than men in all recent presidential elections and this gap is certainly more pronounced among younger voters. 🗽3. Early Voting- Voting via postal and at pre election early polling places has been underway for some weeks. Over 70 million voters had already cast their ballots before polling day. These early returns are said to have seen far more women than men come to the polls - a gap even larger than expected and which gives a possibility the final outcome will be better for the Democrats than the polls predict. Overall, the US election appears on a knife edge🇺🇸!

It's election day in the USA 🇺🇸 - Are you wondering what's been happening on the ground in key swing state contests? 🔴 🗳 🔵 Here are Stephenson Mohl Group's quick takeaways on what might have been shaping the US Presidential Election result: 🗽 1. A Coin Toss Election- Overall the race looks to be a dead heat both in overall polling numbers and extrapolations state by state - The all important electoral college vote could be settled with a single figure vote margin or even a tie based on some projections. 🗽2. A Huge Gender Divide- Women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are backing Donald Trump - by a margin of between 10 and 20 points. (This is even true among younger voters.) Given women have a higher propensity to vote this could be the key to the election. Women have both registered and voted at higher rates than men in all recent presidential elections and this gap is certainly more pronounced among younger voters. 🗽3. Early Voting- Voting via postal and at pre election early polling places has been underway for some weeks. Over 70 million voters had already cast their ballots before polling day. These early returns are said to have seen far more women than men come to the polls - a gap even larger than expected and which gives a possibility the final outcome will be better for the Democrats than the polls predict. Overall, the US election appears on a knife edge🇺🇸!

Today is the big Budget day at last - seen as a key milestone for the new government. When the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves rises to deliver her Budget statement in the House of Commons this lunchtime, we will already have a reasonable idea of some of the main measures likely to be included. After all there has been a steady stream of stories and speculation which dates back for many days and weeks. But spare a thought for one of Rachel Reeves’ predecessors as Labour Chancellor, Hugh Dalton, MP for Bishop Auckland, who was forced to resign his post in Autumn 1947 after a single sentence of his budget was leaked to a lobby correspondent – just minutes before it was due to be presented in Parliament. Of course there may be very good reasons in the twenty-first century to bring the budget news out gradually, not least the impact a raft of unforeseen changes may have (and we don’t need to look very far back for an example) on potentially volatile markets. But it does rather underline the ways in which politics is now done differently. One thing that has not changed is the fevered speculation over exactly which taxes will change and by how much they might increase in the Budget – for this was the content of the single leaked sentence which did for Dalton in Labour’s first post-war government all those years ago. #Budget2024

At 12:30 today Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the first Labour budget for fifteen years, under the banner of "Fixing the Foundations for Change". Stephenson Mohl Group preview the measures likely to be inside the Treasury Red Box 👉 https://lnkd.in/e87pdM43

Stephenson Mohl Group today embarked on an exciting new chapter, launching our London office in the heart of Westminster. Local Insight. National Impact. Find out more: 👉 https://lnkd.in/ettgxEkz

Exciting times at Stephenson-Mohl Group with our London office now officially open. Located on Adam Street next to Embankment, we are just a short walk from Parliament. SMG is privileged to be working with our clients at every level of Government right across the UK. 2024 has been something of a political marathon at home and around the world. That continues this week with a Budget and next week with the US election. The political process continues to shape the world around us. Why let this be a challenge, when it can be an opportunity? www.stephenson-mohl.co.uk Local Insight. National Impact.

CAN THE NORTH EAST SEIZE THE POLITICAL MOMENT? // "Decisive change has arrived in Westminster, and with the election of a new mayor in Kim McGuinness, the North East should not shy away from self-reflection." As Westminster undergoes changes alongside a landmark devolution deal in the North, the political landscape is evolving. Here, Mark Stephenson, managing director of public affairs agency Stephenson-Mohl Group, shares his insights on these changes and outlines the key measures needed to help the region thrive. Full story: https://lnkd.in/eZRJxs44 #net #n #stephensonmohl #northeast #devolution

It’s been a pleasure for Stephenson-Mohl Group to advise Banks Group on this forthcoming housing development in Wakefield. Well done to the whole project team for securing this well earned outline planning consent today. If you have a project that would benefit from strategic advice and public affairs support- don’t hesitate to reach out!

We’re delighted to welcome Simon Henig and Joseph McKenna to Stephenson-Mohl Group. After a busy summer, SMG are excited to announce our two new hires to support and advise our growing client base. Simon has been appointed as Head of Government Relations and will lead SMG’s work in Westminster, bringing a wealth of experience to the business following three decades in frontline politics. Joseph joins SMG as a Public Affairs Manager after starting his career in Parliament. Visit www.stephenson-mohl.co.uk to find out more about how we can support your organisation.