Silk Invest

Good read...Taylor Swift for president could be fun...his comments on the need to diversify portfolios can't be ignored... "Although “the best parts of the United States are still the best parts of the world for capitalism and innovation”, the risks the country faced were on the rise and make geographic diversification necessary, he said. “Countries that earn more than they spend and have great balance sheets, have internal order and are neutral in the geopolitical conflicts … look attractive,” Mr Dalio said." Beyond markets investors should diversify strategies and managers...we have too much concentration across all levels... https://lnkd.in/etuQ3v3d

Allocations to China have reached historical lows especially when corrected to GDP or market captilazations...Article in FT with data from ETFGI highlights that 18 China ETFs have closed in Q1 vs an unprecedented 2023 full year total of 34...Assets in China in European/US domiciled ETFs stand now at only USD 34.8 billion vs USD 47.2 billion end 2021... Politics and disapppointing performance have hurt the case for China but long term investors should re-assess allocations...MSCI China index is trading at forward PE of 10.8x in comparison with 21.6x for the S&P 500 and 23.0 for India...too low when taking into account that many of the Chinese names are globally focused growth stocks... Beyond China it's ironic to see ESG and China closures in tandem... PS: As a final anecdote, one of our marketing consultants highlighted that it is impossible to market our Sunwah Kingsway China fund in the current environment...a good sign that we are close that sentiment has reached a low and that a turnaround may happen soon...luckily others marketing partners see this opportunity...

Disappointing US growth numbers...a dip or structural shift to weaker economic conditions? This quarter could have been worse but was helped by an uptick in government spending... My reading is that we will see more turbulence going forward...stubbornly high inflation and high deficit don't give the US policy makers many options to support the economy...add to it global political upheaval and upcoming elections... https://lnkd.in/er7rat-N

MSCI has moved all its Nigerian positions in its Frontier Markets to nil...quite sad as Nigeria was historically one of the main countries especially pre 2016...but I am closing the day with more optimism.   The Nigerian Central Bank hosted a very insightful conference call and showed transparency and orthodoxy. The Central Bank governor Olayemi Cardoso and his deputy Muhammad Sani Abdullahi reiterated their full commitment for ensuring stability and fighting inflation. They were straight to the point and highlighted that they need to restore trust and move away from the fear that has been in the system for so long. They also stated that they have cleared almost all backlogs and that FX liquidity is fully restored. One of their other points was that the country has learned from its past mistakes, and it won’t shoot itself again in the foot.   Many investors in Nigeria have scars and it will take time to heal but at the same time the reforms are real and the new leadership team is clearly different…so let’s as we say in Morocco “Dir Niya”…it was the central message of Morocco’s coach, Walid Regragui, during the World Cup and means to basically have faith…as the coach highlighted this will lead to collective positive energy and make things happen…   Beyond faith, valuation multiples in the market remain very attractive...you can find banks trading at PB below 0.5x, PE of around 2x and double digit dividend yields...or you can also invest in subsidiaries of the likes of Bharti and Holcim at 30% of their multiples...see graphs.

Great achievement in a very difficult time...USD 35 billion investment by the UAE is big vote of confidence in Egypt's economy. The wars in Ukraine, Sudan and Gaza have severely derailed Egypt's economy but this announcement will help it to turn things around... https://lnkd.in/eSUq2Jpu

Happy Chinese New Year...Xīnnián hǎo...may the year of Dragon bring health, happiness and especially peace to all https://lnkd.in/eQjjeTyM

Big congratulations to Adejoke B. for her amazing achievement...she is the founder and head chef of Chishuru and is the first black woman to be awarded a Michelin star in the UK. She won it by bringing West African food to the world...a recognition of her talents and the richness of Nigerian and West African cuisine... Afrofood is poised to become a major hit following in the footsteps of the successes of African music, arts and movies. We were fortunate enough to become early investors in this area and partnered with Ebele Enunwa in his Sundry Foods Limited business in 2011. The number of restaurants of the group increased 30x since then by building on its authentic food and scaling up across Nigeria. Thanks again Laolu Alabi and Nigel Bannerman for making this happen...

Morocco was not very lucky during the African cup tournament but Bouchra Karboubi is making everyone proud. She was the second woman to lead an AFCON match and combines her international referee career with her job as a policewoman. Truly inspiring journey.... https://lnkd.in/eHmZWSuV