Scale Newsletter reposted this
THE EFFECTS OF LACK OF TRANSPARENCY IN BESS OPTIMIZATION 🔋 Let me share my subjective view on what's going on in emerging BESS markets and why things are not optimal regarding BESS investments. 💰 BESS investors are looking for high IRR and chat with every potential optimizer to get a better understanding of their services. The result 👉 due to missing transparency and proof of capabilities, investors ask for backtests, which they finally do not use for decision making. ⬆ Most optimizers don't have large portfolios in operation (even if they claim it) as a ton of assets is currently under construction. The result 👉 a battle on backtesting/simulation results as a proxy for the technical capabilities of the optimizer. Fun fact: there is no way for the investor to figure out if an optimizer (such as enspired) has invested 4 years into their in-house framework with cutting-edge tech behind it or if they just came up with an arbitrary number from a spreadsheet. 🏦 Due to the lack of transparency, bankable forecasts (which are slightly pessimistic by nature) are the only source to model revenues in the business case. The result 👉 IRR is lower, financing is trickier and potentially slows down the project, and, with that, the overall rollout of much-needed BESS assets. At least this situation provides the source for even more "duck curve" posts in the future 😉 📈 Optimizers are reduced to cost positions instead of revenue-enabling allies. The result 👉 as investors currently have no way to compare optimizer performance, they sometimes just go for the cheapest option. Now let that sink: if an optimizer is 10% better than another optimizer (that you might have chosen for 0.5% less revenue share) ... just take a second and calculate the impact of your decision on your IRR. My very strategic angle is that if you cannot compete on quality, you need to compete on price - and some investors will only realize when it's too late. As soon as the new assets go live, the market will face a big showdown 😁 Simply ask yourself: Would you choose the cheapest BESS provider, ignoring safety, performance, and reliability? How do we fix this situation while markets are still emerging? I'm looking forward to your ideas! We're working on this challenge, stay tuned 😎 #artificialintelligence #batterystorage #energytransition