Capital Economics

In the latest special issue of Ahead of the Curve, we’re breaking down the critical shifts shaping commercial real estate as markets begin to stabilize. It includes a special look at opportunities in retail, key takeaways from our latest UK outlook, and why Amazon hasn’t just thrown offices a lifeline.  #realestate #commercialproperty

Check out the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast from Capital Economics where I joined Neil Shearing and David Wilder for a wide-ranging discussion on the Fed, European equities, the Middle East, and the upcoming US election. https://lnkd.in/e2TUwJd8

A US soft landing, hard landing or no landing? Where do Chinese shares go from here? How should investors trade the US election? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing for a wide-ranging chat around the hottest topics in global macro and markets. Listen here: https://buff.ly/4eOxuv4 Spotify: https://buff.ly/3BuAo9P Apple: https://buff.ly/4dyqnG7

Want to know how to stay on top of recession risks? Our Economic Momentum Indicators provide timely data that accurately track downturns across major developed economies. Make informed decisions with more reliable data to optimise your portfolio for volatile markets. Learn more now: https://lnkd.in/evQ4MK59 #recessions #recessionrisks #investment #riskmanagement

“With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is still relatively low.” Our latest US Economic Outlook makes the case for a soft landing – but what will follow that? Download the key takeaways from our client report now. https://lnkd.in/ecnr8dsZ #inflation #rates #USeconomy

Despite the skepticism around AI’s potential to transform economies, we expect to start seeing the technology boost US productivity growth from 2026. That’s why we think the US economy can grow faster without stoking inflation. Our latest US Economic Outlook has more on the growth-inflation trade-off. Download the key takeaways from our client report now. https://lnkd.in/et4A6Dj6 #useconomy #AI #productivity

Our Q4 UK Commercial Property Outlook highlights a market in recovery, the sectors leading this recovery and the key risks for investors and lenders. Read about our forecasts for modest capital growth, falling residential yields, and a retail sector that’s offering better returns. Get a free sample report: https://lnkd.in/ekbxEZJr #UKCP #UKproperty

Brent crude has spiked by nearly 3% to $73.60pb today, following reports that the US government has evidence that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if the strike actually materialises – will be its size and whether it is designed to inflict significant damage, particularly in civilian areas. A significant escalation by Iran risks bringing the US into the war, which Tehran will presumably seek to avoid. Assuming this is avoided, the impact on oil prices will remain the key channel of transmission to the global economy. Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output, but an important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies are disrupted. As a broad rule of thumb, a 5% increase in oil prices adds about 0.1%-pts to headline inflation in advanced economies. As things stand, the moves are not sufficiently large to have a bearing on central bank policy. For more, see our note from Monday: https://lnkd.in/e2ETn7wX

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider oil market, the risks to oil prices over the next year are arguably skewed to the downside. Read more, and check out our special podcast episode too https://lnkd.in/eUFc_yS2 #oil #economics