Papers by Matthew Townshend
For 12th Annual Conference on Asphalt Pavements in Southern Africa, 2019
Road surfacing policy is among the most influential mechanisms available to road authorities to a... more Road surfacing policy is among the most influential mechanisms available to road authorities to alleviate budget and resource constraints and to enhance their level of public service delivery. Given that gravel roads constitute 73.6% of the South African road network, this paper identifies cost-effective surface solutions for these roads under different local conditions experienced across South Africa. Gravel and cape seals, which are selected as a potential light bituminous seal alternative to gravel, are explored using a Cobb-Douglas production function that represents their major inputs: capital; labour; basic materials; fuel; and other inputs. The respective factor intensities for the production functions are based on 2018 road construction and maintenance unit cost data for South Africa. The relative cost-effectiveness of the alternative road surfaces is evaluated through a lifecycle cost analysis (LCCA), with the production function parameters stress tested according to cost variances caused by actual environmental and market conditions. Road user and road accident costs are added as additional LCCA stress tests to extend the study beyond road authority costs. The results indicate that the dominant strategy, in terms of cost-effectiveness and welfare, is for South African road authorities to seal those gravel roads worth maintaining at a rate possible within budget limitations.
Southern African Transport Conference, 2018
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of produ... more Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the lifespan of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country's rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migration, and household agriculture statistics are also incorporated in the discussion to emphasise the importance of sound road investment policy in South Africa.
Conference on Asphalt Pavements for Southern Africa, 2015
This paper combines economic theory with GIS application to assess whether South African road aut... more This paper combines economic theory with GIS application to assess whether South African road authorities can satisfy constitutionally protected basic access needs without sacrificing economic growth. The trade-off between access to basic services for all citizens and economic growth is investigated, with particular attention to issues of constitutional obligations, quality of life, and the fundamental role of economic growth in poverty reduction. Based on Rawls's Theory of Justice and game theory arguments presented by Binmore, lexicographical priority is assigned to basic access roads. Following the definition of basic access roads and an investigation of the national demand profile, the extent of the potential basic access road network is estimated using primary and secondary schools as a proxy for service centres.
Southern African Transport Conference, 2018
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prior... more Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic services; and roads that maximise potential economic growth. This issue stems from reliance on the current set of classification systems, which lack the requisite detail to determine a road's significance in connecting communities to basic service facilities, the volume and type of economic activity it supports, and overlaps between these functions. This paper therefore presents an economics-based road classification system customised for the South African road network. The new system disaggregates roads into four classes: Basic Access Roads; Strategic Roads; Tactical Roads; and Surplus Roads. The characteristics and maintenance priority level of each road class are addressed, along with an identification methodology that authorities can use to include this information within their asset management systems to improve expenditure and investment outcomes.
18th World Road Meeting, 2017
South Africa's provincial and municipal road authorities are responsible for the maintenance of a... more South Africa's provincial and municipal road authorities are responsible for the maintenance of an extensive low-volume gravel road network. Given the significant deterioration in the quality of this network, it is questionable whether authorities can and should accommodate the relative maintenance intensity of gravel roads within the resource constraints they face. The high incidence of gravel roads was largely driven by decentralized provision and relatively cheap construction costs compared to sealed alternatives, but consideration should extend to the resources that are required for the routine maintenance and periodic re-gravelling necessary to uphold their design life. Planning generally was not extended over the life-cycle of low-volume roads, so shocks have been encountered with respect to haulage distances for gravel, erosion of longitudinal road gradients, climate change, and increases in traffic volumes. We therefore estimate and stress test the whole-life economic asset cost of a gravel road under South African conditions, and compare these results against a variety of sealed alternatives to determine the points at which gravel is no longer the most cost-effective surface option for low-volume roads. Each alternative surface includes a specification, schedule of inputs, and standard maintenance programme. The stress tests focus on variations in input prices, the potential labour intensity of road works, the cost of labour, road user costs, and the sensitivity of maintenance schedules and costs to environmental factors. INTRODUCTION This paper presents a South African specific life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of alternative unsealed and sealed surfaces for low-volume roads, defined here as carrying 75 to 220 vehicles per day, to promote their cost-effective provision by the 278 municipal and 9 provincial road authorities. The LCCA explores the trade-offs between the investment, maintenance, rehabilitation, and road user costs of gravel, sand seal, slurry seal, single chip seal, cape seal, and ultra-thin reinforced concrete pavement (UTRCP) roads. Stress tests are performed according to local variations in the proximity of natural resources to roads, the price inflation of inputs, climate, topography, the cost of labour, and road user costs to ensure this study is robust and has country-wide application. The results support a policy to seal low-volume gravel roads at a rate possible within budget limitations.
6th Biennial South African Monitoring and Evaluation Conference, 2017
The Government of South Africa plans to implement a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), as o... more The Government of South Africa plans to implement a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), as outlined in the 2017 budget. The tax, however, remains contentious as pro-and anti-SSB stakeholders alike have drawn on speculative figures to quantify the currently unknown fiscal, economic, and health impacts of the proposed tax. This paper draws on international good practice in monitoring and evaluation, and the National Evaluation Plan criteria, to develop a monitoring and evaluation framework for the SSB tax. Applying the Logical Framework Approach, all potential impacts of the proposed tax, both positive and negative, are identified and matched with the appropriate unit of measurement to develop a comprehensive set of performance indicators. These performance indicators include, but are not limited to, the effects of the tax on economic output, employment, Value-Added and Corporate Income Tax collections, and obesity, diabetes and other noncommunicable disease rates. Each indicator is accompanied by a data collection plan that covers proposed timelines for baseline and subsequent data collection, as well as various data collection methods. These include the use of existing data sources, extensions to current data collection instruments, and the development of purpose-designed surveys. If properly implemented, the proposed economic monitoring and evaluation framework will provide the National Treasury with the necessary evaluative evidence to set the SSB tax at an optimal level that maximises the health benefits of the tax, while minimising any of the potential negative economic consequences. This topical case study provides an instructive opportunity to highlight the key role played by evaluations in the implementation of sound policy that promotes the public interest.
The Urban Land Paper Series, 2017
The discourse around land in South Africa is largely framed as a rural issue, and discussions abo... more The discourse around land in South Africa is largely framed as a rural issue, and discussions about urban land rarely address questions of ownership or use. This paper seeks to broaden the empirical base of urban land profiles in South African cities, particularly in relation to ownership.
Land ownership can influence urban development and, consequently, spatial transformation. Land ownership can shape how development occurs, through the decisions owners make over land in terms of land use and when to sell. In addition, the tenure type can determine how the costs and benefits of development are distributed, as development outcomes differ for property owners and for tenants.
Therefore, if South Africa is to achieve its development goals of inclusivity and spatial equity, a quantitative basis is needed for discussing how this relationship between land ownership and development evolves in practice.
After a discussion about what it means to own land, including a brief outline of the functioning of the land market in South Africa, the paper considers the theoretical links between land ownership and various characteristics and outcomes of development. Three Corridors of Freedom case studies, which are examples of transit orientated development (TOD) projects, are used to explore practically how land ownership could potentially shape the progress of development with respect to zoning and density. A closer examination of the demographic profiles and predominant tenure types of the wards along the Louis Botha Corridor illustrates how ownership and the different tenure types can affect the outcomes of the corridor development.
The Urban Land Paper Series, 2017
As South African municipalities seek innovative methods to promote inclusive urban development an... more As South African municipalities seek innovative methods to promote inclusive urban development and address historical settlement injustices, transit-orientated development (TOD) has become a popular concept on which many metropolitan spatial plans are centred. TOD focuses on inclusivity, mixed land use, densification and pedestrian-oriented movement around major transport nodes. TOD represents the intricate relationship between transit and development, and essentially seeks to alter the built form of the city in order to optimise the movement patterns of people and goods, social equality and economic development.
A key question for municipalities is how to finance TOD and other development projects within a constrained fiscal environment where local governments are under increasing pressure to use their own revenues to fund infrastructure and development investments. A popular mechanism to emerge is land-based financing (LBF), of which land value capture (LVC) is a component. A substantial literature explores the potential for LVC in South Africa and, over the past few years, there have been significant advancements in policy and legislation. The National Treasury Policy Framework for Municipal Development Charges, the Spatial Land Use and Management Act (SPLUMA) of 2013, and various policies developed by the cities of Cape Town and Johannesburg have sought to formalise and promote the practice of LVC.
Given land’s social, historical and political roles in South Africa, the question is whether LBF is an appropriate and effective method to raise the necessary revenue to finance inclusive development through TOD in cities. This paper explores the extent to which LBF’s purposes and goals are aligned with those of inclusive urban development in South Africa. It considers the diverse values and competing functions of land, and what this mean for using land as a financial tool for development. It also examines the tensions between using public land assets to generate revenue or using the land to address historical spatial injustice. The sale of the Old Tafelberg school site in Cape Town, which lies along a key transport route (and is therefore ideal for social housing as part of a TOD project) is included as a case study to demonstrate the pressures to accommodate land’s alternative functions and the practical difficulties faced by authorities when implementing LBF. The paper concludes with suggestions of how municipalities could maximise the social benefits accruing from urban development financed through land. LBF can be implemented in a more inclusive manner, including policy adjustments that may be required for cities to achieve this objective.
Drafts by Matthew Townshend
12th Conference on Asphalt Pavements for Southern Africa, 2019
Improving the quality and extending the distribution of lower-skilled human capital that has a no... more Improving the quality and extending the distribution of lower-skilled human capital that has a non-negative shadow value is an urgent policy priority in South Africa. This paper therefore explores the employment benefits of a policy to surface provincial and municipal gravel roads with a light bituminous seal. The analysis indicates that sealing gravel roads could generate approximately 7.1 million full-time equivalent job opportunities, with most of these jobs located in predominantly rural provinces with the highest levels of unemployment. The total full-time equivalent job opportunities are distributed over short- to long-term timeframes to indicate the potential impact that alternative upgrade schedules could have on the unemployment rate. In addition to these employment benefits, a policy to seal gravel roads can substitute locally available labour for currently imported capital equipment, reduce short-term rural-urban migration pressures, develop human capital, and realise a lifecycle cost saving once the shadow price is substituted for the artificially inflated market wage for unskilled labour. All these factors lead to the conclusion that gravel roads worth maintaining should be sealed at a rate possible within budget limits.
The South African Institution of Civil Engineering's 2017 Infrastructure Report Card scored natio... more The South African Institution of Civil Engineering's 2017 Infrastructure Report Card scored national roads a " B " (fit for the future), paved metropolitan roads a " C " (satisfactory for now), paved provincial and other municipal roads a " D " (at risk of failure), and gravel roads an " E " (unfit for purpose). Commonly cited estimates of the magnitude of these road maintenance backlogs, including that used in the 2018 Draft Roads Policy for South Africa, indicate that they amounted to R197 billion in 2014. This paper interrogates the accuracy of this estimate through an evaluation of the extent to which the national, provincial, and municipal road authorities are singularly and cumulatively affected by road maintenance backlogs as at 2017. The cost modelling demonstrates that the rehabilitation costs are potentially as high as R128.6 billion for the paved road network and R281.2 billion for the gravel road network. Additional cost estimates are generated for gravel to surface upgrades and of the contingent liability posed by the unproclaimed road network. Addressed in the discussion of these results are the implications for road investment policy, budget planning, and attempts to develop an integrated funding model.
News articles by Matthew Townshend
Research identifies indirect benefits of roads
A Road Prioritisation Model
Road network economic classification
CV by Matthew Townshend
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Papers by Matthew Townshend
Land ownership can influence urban development and, consequently, spatial transformation. Land ownership can shape how development occurs, through the decisions owners make over land in terms of land use and when to sell. In addition, the tenure type can determine how the costs and benefits of development are distributed, as development outcomes differ for property owners and for tenants.
Therefore, if South Africa is to achieve its development goals of inclusivity and spatial equity, a quantitative basis is needed for discussing how this relationship between land ownership and development evolves in practice.
After a discussion about what it means to own land, including a brief outline of the functioning of the land market in South Africa, the paper considers the theoretical links between land ownership and various characteristics and outcomes of development. Three Corridors of Freedom case studies, which are examples of transit orientated development (TOD) projects, are used to explore practically how land ownership could potentially shape the progress of development with respect to zoning and density. A closer examination of the demographic profiles and predominant tenure types of the wards along the Louis Botha Corridor illustrates how ownership and the different tenure types can affect the outcomes of the corridor development.
A key question for municipalities is how to finance TOD and other development projects within a constrained fiscal environment where local governments are under increasing pressure to use their own revenues to fund infrastructure and development investments. A popular mechanism to emerge is land-based financing (LBF), of which land value capture (LVC) is a component. A substantial literature explores the potential for LVC in South Africa and, over the past few years, there have been significant advancements in policy and legislation. The National Treasury Policy Framework for Municipal Development Charges, the Spatial Land Use and Management Act (SPLUMA) of 2013, and various policies developed by the cities of Cape Town and Johannesburg have sought to formalise and promote the practice of LVC.
Given land’s social, historical and political roles in South Africa, the question is whether LBF is an appropriate and effective method to raise the necessary revenue to finance inclusive development through TOD in cities. This paper explores the extent to which LBF’s purposes and goals are aligned with those of inclusive urban development in South Africa. It considers the diverse values and competing functions of land, and what this mean for using land as a financial tool for development. It also examines the tensions between using public land assets to generate revenue or using the land to address historical spatial injustice. The sale of the Old Tafelberg school site in Cape Town, which lies along a key transport route (and is therefore ideal for social housing as part of a TOD project) is included as a case study to demonstrate the pressures to accommodate land’s alternative functions and the practical difficulties faced by authorities when implementing LBF. The paper concludes with suggestions of how municipalities could maximise the social benefits accruing from urban development financed through land. LBF can be implemented in a more inclusive manner, including policy adjustments that may be required for cities to achieve this objective.
Drafts by Matthew Townshend
News articles by Matthew Townshend
CV by Matthew Townshend
Land ownership can influence urban development and, consequently, spatial transformation. Land ownership can shape how development occurs, through the decisions owners make over land in terms of land use and when to sell. In addition, the tenure type can determine how the costs and benefits of development are distributed, as development outcomes differ for property owners and for tenants.
Therefore, if South Africa is to achieve its development goals of inclusivity and spatial equity, a quantitative basis is needed for discussing how this relationship between land ownership and development evolves in practice.
After a discussion about what it means to own land, including a brief outline of the functioning of the land market in South Africa, the paper considers the theoretical links between land ownership and various characteristics and outcomes of development. Three Corridors of Freedom case studies, which are examples of transit orientated development (TOD) projects, are used to explore practically how land ownership could potentially shape the progress of development with respect to zoning and density. A closer examination of the demographic profiles and predominant tenure types of the wards along the Louis Botha Corridor illustrates how ownership and the different tenure types can affect the outcomes of the corridor development.
A key question for municipalities is how to finance TOD and other development projects within a constrained fiscal environment where local governments are under increasing pressure to use their own revenues to fund infrastructure and development investments. A popular mechanism to emerge is land-based financing (LBF), of which land value capture (LVC) is a component. A substantial literature explores the potential for LVC in South Africa and, over the past few years, there have been significant advancements in policy and legislation. The National Treasury Policy Framework for Municipal Development Charges, the Spatial Land Use and Management Act (SPLUMA) of 2013, and various policies developed by the cities of Cape Town and Johannesburg have sought to formalise and promote the practice of LVC.
Given land’s social, historical and political roles in South Africa, the question is whether LBF is an appropriate and effective method to raise the necessary revenue to finance inclusive development through TOD in cities. This paper explores the extent to which LBF’s purposes and goals are aligned with those of inclusive urban development in South Africa. It considers the diverse values and competing functions of land, and what this mean for using land as a financial tool for development. It also examines the tensions between using public land assets to generate revenue or using the land to address historical spatial injustice. The sale of the Old Tafelberg school site in Cape Town, which lies along a key transport route (and is therefore ideal for social housing as part of a TOD project) is included as a case study to demonstrate the pressures to accommodate land’s alternative functions and the practical difficulties faced by authorities when implementing LBF. The paper concludes with suggestions of how municipalities could maximise the social benefits accruing from urban development financed through land. LBF can be implemented in a more inclusive manner, including policy adjustments that may be required for cities to achieve this objective.