Political scientist and political sociologist with a focus on civil war, regime transitions and evolution, violence, state building, and development, especially in Latin America and Africa.
Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We... more Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We argue historical framing can enable sudden mass uprisings even where long-standing anti-regime grievances are absent. Protest cascades can develop to challenge relatively stable, popular governments through four interdependent historical framing mechanisms. First, protesters and bystanders may draw analogies to historical contentious episodes. Second, individuals or groups may imagine themselves occupying paradigmatic roles from past popular struggles, offering prescriptions for action. Third, protesters can adopt symbolic and tactical repertoires from previous contentious episodes. Finally, protesters may concentrate protests within symbolic space. We develop our theory with evidence from Nicaragua’s 2018 mass uprising, which nearly toppled previously-popular President Daniel Ortega, after violence against protesters activated powerful frames resonating with Nicaragua’s history of dict...
Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in
dangerous settings across the globe ... more Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical, personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present research as ‘objective’. Yet the reality of field research in violent and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of field data in much published work. I argue that rather than the imposition of blanket positivist standards of replicability and research transparency, research in violent settings needs to draw lessons from interpretivist ideas and methodologies about the researcher’s role in the process of data gathering, analysis, and presentation. I focus on three key issues: reflexivity, temporality, and the geography of research between ‘field’ and ‘home,’ drawing on personal experiences conducting research on conflict, violence, and postconflict society in Liberia, Nicaragua, South Africa, and Uganda. I show how these three issues practically, theoretically, and ethically conflict with replicability and transparency demands. Through a practice of reflexive openness, however, positivist-leaning researchers can more honestly and ethically reconcile realities of research with professional expectations in the field and after returning.
Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and
peacebuilding outcomes by incorporati... more Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars. While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration, there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of military integration on intelligence capacity and the information available to security forces. Information is key to successful counterinsurgency and peacebuilding efforts, and I argue that military integration of ex-rebels can improve intelligence capacity by providing gains in knowledge of human and physical geography, access to preexisting social networks and informants, and knowledge of the relative effectiveness of government and rebel tactics. I illustrate these improvements with evidence from conflicts across time and space and brief case narratives from the Philippines, Uganda, and Rwanda. I conclude by discussing policy implications, cases of unsuccessful integration and negative effects on intelligence, and questions for future research on the intelligence aspect of military integration.
While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democrat... more While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democratic consolidation is incomplete and reversible. Analyzing Liberia's 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections reveals three trends. First, there has been an ongoing establishment of the norm that power should be contested institutionally, rather than by nonconstitutional means. Second, each election has seen allegations of electoral fraud by losing candidates, exposing institutional weaknesses and further eroding state-citizen trust. Third, increased electoral competition suggests that Liberia's democracy is opening up, but also reveals the pernicious and widely shared notion that the path to wealth is through the public sector. As international aid to Liberia decreases, entrenching democratic norms remains a key challenge.
Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton
(2004) affirme que les armées... more Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton (2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses » (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui, près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la nature des armées africaines, de leurs évolutions et de leur position à la croisée des intérêts des États, des dirigeants, de la société civile et de l’ensemble de la communauté internationale ? Nous examinons ici l’état des connaissances et des débats sur les armées africaines, en proposant une réflexion et des exemples concrets permettant de contextualiser.
With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy und... more With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy underwent further erosion. The emerging authoritarian party-state, far from being a leftist revolutionary government, is becoming a neopatrimonial dictatorship in an older Latin American style.
The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurren... more The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency, and processes related to violence and conflict, and the opportunity MMR offers to influence a broader academic and policy audience. MMR can improve the accordance of theories and empirical studies with the complexities of social reality and enhance understanding of the causes, consequences, and potential remedies of violence and conflict.
Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citize... more Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper ...
... either quantitative data (Jewkes et al. 2001; Jewkes, Levin and Penn-Kekana 2002) and ... the... more ... either quantitative data (Jewkes et al. 2001; Jewkes, Levin and Penn-Kekana 2002) and ... the influence of alcohol at the time of the offense. Jewkes, Levin, and Penn-Kekana (2002:1609), in a survey of women, found that those reporting suffering IPV were more likely ...
Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citize... more Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper ...
There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond ... more There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond the analysis of conflict to consider the dynamics of community behavior and the importance of economic and behavioral factors. South Africa competes with Colombia, Venezuela, and a number of Central American countries for the unwelcome distinction of having among the world’s highest homicide rates, and high prevalence of other forms of violence, including domestic and sexual violence, are also appallingly prevalent. This article presents an analysis of data from a panel of young men in Cape Town. It provides little support for the hypothesis that unemployment is a direct cause of violence against strangers. The impact of drinking (or taking drugs) by adults in the home or by the young men themselves, living in a bad neighborhood, and immediate poverty are associated with violence against strangers, but being unemployed is not. This suggests that few young people in South Africa in the early 2000s come from backgrounds that strongly predispose them against the use of violence.
Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue o... more Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue of ideology. This paper argues that ideology may shape the use of selective versus indiscriminate violence by an armed group. The role of ideology is examined in the cases of Frelimo in Mozambique and the MPLA in Angola in their countries’ wars of independence and civil wars. Using archival and newspaper data, I find that the Marxist-Leninist ideology of Frelimo and the MPLA led initially to their practice of restraint in violence against civilians, and that as elite ideological commitment eroded, this led to a corresponding increase in violence. I also challenge the role played by ideology in Jeremy Weinstein and Macartan Humphreys’ group organization theory of civil war violence.
The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, puni... more The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, punish, and prevent genocide and other mass killings has led to the establishment of genocidal regimes that institutionalize genocide as a tactic of repression and power consolidation. One such repeat offender regime was the New Order government of Indonesia, which committed mass killings of known and alleged communists throughout Indonesia in 1965–1966 and later carried out a genocidal, colonial occupation of East Timor. I demonstrate parallels between the actors, tactics, and discourse of the communist killings and the Timorese Genocide. The failures of domestic resistance and international pressure to punish the New Order after 1966 allowed génocidaires to retain power and reinforced their belief in the acceptability and effectiveness of genocidal tactics. The Indonesian case illustrates the necessity of punishment for genocide to preclude a culture of impunity that encourages both previous and new offenders.
Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We... more Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We argue historical framing can enable sudden mass uprisings even where long-standing anti-regime grievances are absent. Protest cascades can develop to challenge relatively stable, popular governments through four interdependent historical framing mechanisms. First, protesters and bystanders may draw analogies to historical contentious episodes. Second, individuals or groups may imagine themselves occupying paradigmatic roles from past popular struggles, offering prescriptions for action. Third, protesters can adopt symbolic and tactical repertoires from previous contentious episodes. Finally, protesters may concentrate protests within symbolic space. We develop our theory with evidence from Nicaragua’s 2018 mass uprising, which nearly toppled previously-popular President Daniel Ortega, after violence against protesters activated powerful frames resonating with Nicaragua’s history of dict...
Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in
dangerous settings across the globe ... more Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical, personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present research as ‘objective’. Yet the reality of field research in violent and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of field data in much published work. I argue that rather than the imposition of blanket positivist standards of replicability and research transparency, research in violent settings needs to draw lessons from interpretivist ideas and methodologies about the researcher’s role in the process of data gathering, analysis, and presentation. I focus on three key issues: reflexivity, temporality, and the geography of research between ‘field’ and ‘home,’ drawing on personal experiences conducting research on conflict, violence, and postconflict society in Liberia, Nicaragua, South Africa, and Uganda. I show how these three issues practically, theoretically, and ethically conflict with replicability and transparency demands. Through a practice of reflexive openness, however, positivist-leaning researchers can more honestly and ethically reconcile realities of research with professional expectations in the field and after returning.
Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and
peacebuilding outcomes by incorporati... more Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars. While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration, there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of military integration on intelligence capacity and the information available to security forces. Information is key to successful counterinsurgency and peacebuilding efforts, and I argue that military integration of ex-rebels can improve intelligence capacity by providing gains in knowledge of human and physical geography, access to preexisting social networks and informants, and knowledge of the relative effectiveness of government and rebel tactics. I illustrate these improvements with evidence from conflicts across time and space and brief case narratives from the Philippines, Uganda, and Rwanda. I conclude by discussing policy implications, cases of unsuccessful integration and negative effects on intelligence, and questions for future research on the intelligence aspect of military integration.
While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democrat... more While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democratic consolidation is incomplete and reversible. Analyzing Liberia's 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections reveals three trends. First, there has been an ongoing establishment of the norm that power should be contested institutionally, rather than by nonconstitutional means. Second, each election has seen allegations of electoral fraud by losing candidates, exposing institutional weaknesses and further eroding state-citizen trust. Third, increased electoral competition suggests that Liberia's democracy is opening up, but also reveals the pernicious and widely shared notion that the path to wealth is through the public sector. As international aid to Liberia decreases, entrenching democratic norms remains a key challenge.
Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton
(2004) affirme que les armées... more Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton (2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses » (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui, près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la nature des armées africaines, de leurs évolutions et de leur position à la croisée des intérêts des États, des dirigeants, de la société civile et de l’ensemble de la communauté internationale ? Nous examinons ici l’état des connaissances et des débats sur les armées africaines, en proposant une réflexion et des exemples concrets permettant de contextualiser.
With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy und... more With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy underwent further erosion. The emerging authoritarian party-state, far from being a leftist revolutionary government, is becoming a neopatrimonial dictatorship in an older Latin American style.
The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurren... more The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency, and processes related to violence and conflict, and the opportunity MMR offers to influence a broader academic and policy audience. MMR can improve the accordance of theories and empirical studies with the complexities of social reality and enhance understanding of the causes, consequences, and potential remedies of violence and conflict.
Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citize... more Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper ...
... either quantitative data (Jewkes et al. 2001; Jewkes, Levin and Penn-Kekana 2002) and ... the... more ... either quantitative data (Jewkes et al. 2001; Jewkes, Levin and Penn-Kekana 2002) and ... the influence of alcohol at the time of the offense. Jewkes, Levin, and Penn-Kekana (2002:1609), in a survey of women, found that those reporting suffering IPV were more likely ...
Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citize... more Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper ...
There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond ... more There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond the analysis of conflict to consider the dynamics of community behavior and the importance of economic and behavioral factors. South Africa competes with Colombia, Venezuela, and a number of Central American countries for the unwelcome distinction of having among the world’s highest homicide rates, and high prevalence of other forms of violence, including domestic and sexual violence, are also appallingly prevalent. This article presents an analysis of data from a panel of young men in Cape Town. It provides little support for the hypothesis that unemployment is a direct cause of violence against strangers. The impact of drinking (or taking drugs) by adults in the home or by the young men themselves, living in a bad neighborhood, and immediate poverty are associated with violence against strangers, but being unemployed is not. This suggests that few young people in South Africa in the early 2000s come from backgrounds that strongly predispose them against the use of violence.
Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue o... more Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue of ideology. This paper argues that ideology may shape the use of selective versus indiscriminate violence by an armed group. The role of ideology is examined in the cases of Frelimo in Mozambique and the MPLA in Angola in their countries’ wars of independence and civil wars. Using archival and newspaper data, I find that the Marxist-Leninist ideology of Frelimo and the MPLA led initially to their practice of restraint in violence against civilians, and that as elite ideological commitment eroded, this led to a corresponding increase in violence. I also challenge the role played by ideology in Jeremy Weinstein and Macartan Humphreys’ group organization theory of civil war violence.
The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, puni... more The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, punish, and prevent genocide and other mass killings has led to the establishment of genocidal regimes that institutionalize genocide as a tactic of repression and power consolidation. One such repeat offender regime was the New Order government of Indonesia, which committed mass killings of known and alleged communists throughout Indonesia in 1965–1966 and later carried out a genocidal, colonial occupation of East Timor. I demonstrate parallels between the actors, tactics, and discourse of the communist killings and the Timorese Genocide. The failures of domestic resistance and international pressure to punish the New Order after 1966 allowed génocidaires to retain power and reinforced their belief in the acceptability and effectiveness of genocidal tactics. The Indonesian case illustrates the necessity of punishment for genocide to preclude a culture of impunity that encourages both previous and new offenders.
Uploads
Papers
dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical,
personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist
fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present
research as ‘objective’. Yet the reality of field research in violent
and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in
methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of field
data in much published work. I argue that rather than the imposition
of blanket positivist standards of replicability and research
transparency, research in violent settings needs to draw lessons
from interpretivist ideas and methodologies about the researcher’s
role in the process of data gathering, analysis, and presentation.
I focus on three key issues: reflexivity, temporality, and the
geography of research between ‘field’ and ‘home,’ drawing on
personal experiences conducting research on conflict, violence,
and postconflict society in Liberia, Nicaragua, South Africa, and
Uganda. I show how these three issues practically, theoretically,
and ethically conflict with replicability and transparency
demands. Through a practice of reflexive openness, however,
positivist-leaning researchers can more honestly and ethically
reconcile realities of research with professional expectations in
the field and after returning.
peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into
preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars.
While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration,
there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the
mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and
peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of
military integration on intelligence capacity and the information
available to security forces. Information is key to successful
counterinsurgency and peacebuilding efforts, and I argue that
military integration of ex-rebels can improve intelligence capacity
by providing gains in knowledge of human and physical
geography, access to preexisting social networks and informants,
and knowledge of the relative effectiveness of government and
rebel tactics. I illustrate these improvements with evidence from
conflicts across time and space and brief case narratives from the
Philippines, Uganda, and Rwanda. I conclude by discussing policy
implications, cases of unsuccessful integration and negative
effects on intelligence, and questions for future research on the
intelligence aspect of military integration.
(2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur
à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines
de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses
» (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui,
près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la
nature des armées africaines, de leurs évolutions et de leur position
à la croisée des intérêts des États, des dirigeants, de la société civile
et de l’ensemble de la communauté internationale ? Nous examinons
ici l’état des connaissances et des débats sur les armées africaines,
en proposant une réflexion et des exemples concrets permettant de
contextualiser.
dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical,
personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist
fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present
research as ‘objective’. Yet the reality of field research in violent
and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in
methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of field
data in much published work. I argue that rather than the imposition
of blanket positivist standards of replicability and research
transparency, research in violent settings needs to draw lessons
from interpretivist ideas and methodologies about the researcher’s
role in the process of data gathering, analysis, and presentation.
I focus on three key issues: reflexivity, temporality, and the
geography of research between ‘field’ and ‘home,’ drawing on
personal experiences conducting research on conflict, violence,
and postconflict society in Liberia, Nicaragua, South Africa, and
Uganda. I show how these three issues practically, theoretically,
and ethically conflict with replicability and transparency
demands. Through a practice of reflexive openness, however,
positivist-leaning researchers can more honestly and ethically
reconcile realities of research with professional expectations in
the field and after returning.
peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into
preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars.
While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration,
there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the
mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and
peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of
military integration on intelligence capacity and the information
available to security forces. Information is key to successful
counterinsurgency and peacebuilding efforts, and I argue that
military integration of ex-rebels can improve intelligence capacity
by providing gains in knowledge of human and physical
geography, access to preexisting social networks and informants,
and knowledge of the relative effectiveness of government and
rebel tactics. I illustrate these improvements with evidence from
conflicts across time and space and brief case narratives from the
Philippines, Uganda, and Rwanda. I conclude by discussing policy
implications, cases of unsuccessful integration and negative
effects on intelligence, and questions for future research on the
intelligence aspect of military integration.
(2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur
à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines
de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses
» (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui,
près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la
nature des armées africaines, de leurs évolutions et de leur position
à la croisée des intérêts des États, des dirigeants, de la société civile
et de l’ensemble de la communauté internationale ? Nous examinons
ici l’état des connaissances et des débats sur les armées africaines,
en proposant une réflexion et des exemples concrets permettant de
contextualiser.