Eric J Alfaro
Eric J. Alfaro has a B.Sc. in Meteorology from University of Costa Rica and a Doctorate in Oceanography from the University of Concepcion, Chile. Worked as Meteorologist at the Costa Rican National Meteorological Institute from 1992 to 1993. Actually, he is Full Professor at the School of Physics, University of Costa Rica, teaching since 1989. He is an active member of the Programs in Atmospheric Sciences and also Integrated Coastal Management, both at the Graduate Studies System, University of Costa Rica. He is an associate researcher at the Center for Geophysical Research and at the Center for Research in Limnology and Marine Sciences, University of Costa Rica. His interest areas include climatology, ocean-atmosphere interaction, meteorology, physical oceanography and multivariate statistical models. Dr. Alfaro has special interest in the statistical assessment of seasonal predictions from numerical model outputs, related also with climate change; and their comparison with the observed data in the Mesoamerican region.
Awards:
Dr. Alfaro working jointly with their colleagues Drs. Jorge Amador and Hugo Hidalgo won the 2009 Excellency Award granted by the Florida Ice & Farm Co. The work presented is: Desarrollo y aplicación de un sistema acoplado de modelado atmosférico-hidrológico para la investigación de la variabilidad climática estacional y del cambio climático regional (Development and implementation of a coupled atmosphere-hydrological model for seasonal regional climate variability and climate change research).
2007 TWAS-CONICIT Award for Young Scientists in the field of Physics.
Eric José Alfaro Martínez es Bachiller y Licenciado en Meteorología de la Universidad de Costa Rica y Doctor en Oceanografía de la Universidad de Concepción, Chile. Trabajó como Meteorólogo en el Instituto Meteorológico Nacional en los años 1992 y 1993. Actualmente, es profesor asociado en la Escuela de Física de la Universidad de Costa Rica, donde ha desempeñado cargos docentes desde 1989, es miembro de la Comisión de Posgrado en Ciencias de la Atmósfera y miembro de la Comisión de Posgrado en Gestión Integrada de Áreas Costeras Tropicales, ambos del Sistema de Estudios de Posgrado, Universidad de Costa Rica. También se desempeña como Investigador del Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI), 1992 al presente y del Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR), Universidad de Costa Rica, 2000 al presente. Sus áreas de interés incluyen la climatología, la interacción océano-atmósfera, la meteorología, la oceanografía física y los modelos estadísticos multivariados.
Premios recibidos:
- Premio Aportes a la creatividad y la excelencia 2009, dado por Florida Ice & Farm Co. En conjunto con los Dres. Jorge Amador y Hugo Hidalgo. Proyecto: Desarrollo y aplicación de un sistema acoplado de modelado atmosférico-hidrológico para la investigación de la variabilidad climática estacional y del cambio climático regional.
- Premio TWAS/CONICIT para Científicos Jóvenes 2007. Área de Física.
Phone: (506) 25115320
Address: School of Physics, University of Costa Rica (UCR), 11501, 2060-Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, San José, Costa Rica.
Awards:
Dr. Alfaro working jointly with their colleagues Drs. Jorge Amador and Hugo Hidalgo won the 2009 Excellency Award granted by the Florida Ice & Farm Co. The work presented is: Desarrollo y aplicación de un sistema acoplado de modelado atmosférico-hidrológico para la investigación de la variabilidad climática estacional y del cambio climático regional (Development and implementation of a coupled atmosphere-hydrological model for seasonal regional climate variability and climate change research).
2007 TWAS-CONICIT Award for Young Scientists in the field of Physics.
Eric José Alfaro Martínez es Bachiller y Licenciado en Meteorología de la Universidad de Costa Rica y Doctor en Oceanografía de la Universidad de Concepción, Chile. Trabajó como Meteorólogo en el Instituto Meteorológico Nacional en los años 1992 y 1993. Actualmente, es profesor asociado en la Escuela de Física de la Universidad de Costa Rica, donde ha desempeñado cargos docentes desde 1989, es miembro de la Comisión de Posgrado en Ciencias de la Atmósfera y miembro de la Comisión de Posgrado en Gestión Integrada de Áreas Costeras Tropicales, ambos del Sistema de Estudios de Posgrado, Universidad de Costa Rica. También se desempeña como Investigador del Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI), 1992 al presente y del Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR), Universidad de Costa Rica, 2000 al presente. Sus áreas de interés incluyen la climatología, la interacción océano-atmósfera, la meteorología, la oceanografía física y los modelos estadísticos multivariados.
Premios recibidos:
- Premio Aportes a la creatividad y la excelencia 2009, dado por Florida Ice & Farm Co. En conjunto con los Dres. Jorge Amador y Hugo Hidalgo. Proyecto: Desarrollo y aplicación de un sistema acoplado de modelado atmosférico-hidrológico para la investigación de la variabilidad climática estacional y del cambio climático regional.
- Premio TWAS/CONICIT para Científicos Jóvenes 2007. Área de Física.
Phone: (506) 25115320
Address: School of Physics, University of Costa Rica (UCR), 11501, 2060-Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, San José, Costa Rica.
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de disponibilidad de agua, por lo que en esta
investigación se modelaron eventos extremos de
precipitación y temperatura bajo el escenario de cambio climático
pesimista de concentraciones, el cual podrá utilizarse
como insumo del análisis de riesgo climático. Como una
forma de determinar la oferta de agua dentro del cantón, se
estimó el balance hídrico para la cuenca madre. Estos insumos
pueden ser utilizados por los habitantes del cantón y
funcionarios de instituciones para la toma de decisiones en
el futuro con relación con el tema del agua.
política, para fortalecer la investigación y la gestión de los océanos y las costas. Con un 92% de superficie
marina, Costa Rica es una nación de mar, que posee una gran diversidad marina, y que realiza esfuerzos
para conocer mejor sus recursos costeros y marinos. En los últimos 20 años, se han desarrollado políticas
para promover la gestión integrada de nuestras zonas costeras y la creación de áreas marinas protegidas.
Mediante la investigación de las universidades públicas, conocemos mejor, aunque de manera incompleta,
cómo se encuentran nuestros recursos pesqueros y acuicultura, los impactos de la contaminación marina
y sus efectos sobre organismos y ecosistemas, los impactos del cambio climático, así como los esfuerzos
para impulsar la conservación marina y la restauración de los ecosistemas marino-costeros y sus servicios.
Del análisis de estas áreas de estudios, es evidente, que existen vacíos de información que deben
ser abordados para generar más información científica que permita la toma de decisiones adecuadas y
basadas en la ciencia, con el objeto de mejorar las políticas púbicas relacionadas a las zonas costeras, sus
recursos, los servicios ecosistémicos, la gestión de las numerosas fuentes de contaminación continental
que llegan a la costa y la adaptación al cambio climático.
and multiannualvariabilityofrainfallisamajorconcern,particularlyfor
crops. Variabilityintherainyseasonwasexaminedconsideringtheonsetand
demise oftheannualrainyseason,thetotalrainvolume,therainfallseason
duration andtheintenseprecipitationeventsrecordedinmeteorologicalsta-
tions (1978–2020). Weanalysedindividualtimeseriesandcalculatedthelong-
term trend.Additionally,weexploredtherelationshipbetweeneachsummer
rainfall characteristicandseveraloceanographicindicesusingmultivariate
techniques. WealsodevelopedaTrans-IsthmicIndexfromtherelationship
between theElNiño–Southern OscillationandtheAtlanticMultidecadal
Oscillation. Thisindexallowsfordeterminingtheeffectoftheoverallinflu-
ence oftheoceanonclimate.Thetimeseriesanalysisrevealedahighinterann-
ual variabilityandlong-termpositivetrendsconcerningthedurationofthe
rainy seasonwithearlieronsetandlaterdemise,andthetotalrainfallvolume
and alsoapositivetrendfortheoccurrenceofheavyprecipitationsuggestinga
shift inintra-annualpatterns.Spatially,theanalysisrevealedclustersofsta-
tions withasimilarvariation,probablyrelatedtotheAMO,NIÑO3.4orTII
indices. ThespatialpatternwasconfirmedbyanalysingCHIRPSgriddedpre-
cipitation data.Ourresultsshowthatwetterconditionsareassociatedwith
lower temperaturesintheequatorialPacificandwarmerconditionsinthe
Atlantic.
El inicio y término de la estación lluviosa (IELL y TELL, respectivamente), así como de la duración de las estaciones seca
y lluviosa (DES y DELL, respectivamente) sobre la provincia de Guanacaste puede ser afectada por diversas fuentes
de variabilidad climática que modulan las precipitaciones en América Central. Se determina el IELL, TELL, DES y DELL,
con datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1981-2020 y se redujo su dimensionalidad
mediante el análisis de Componentes Principales (CP). Se calcularon las correlaciones de Pearson entre las CP y sus
respectivos índices, para estudiar las regiones que presentan mayor influencia de las CP. Estas CP se compararon con
índices de fuentes de variabilidad climática como El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, la Oscilación Multidecenal del Atlántico
y la corriente en chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe (CLLJ, por sus siglas en inglés). Un calentamiento (enfriamiento)
relativo del Atlántico con respecto al Pacífico ecuatorial favorece IELL tempranos (tardíos), TELL tardíos (tempranos),
DES cortas (largas) y DELL largas (cortas); mientras que un CLLJ intenso (débil) favorece IELL tardíos (tempranos), TELL
tempranos (tardíos), DES largas (cortas) y DELL cortas (largas).
Abstract:
The onset and demise of the rainy season (IELL and TELL, respectively in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry
and rainy seasons (DES and DELL, respectively in Spanish) in the province of Guanacaste can be affected by various
sources of climate variability that modulates rainfall in Central America. The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL are determined
with gridded precipitation data over Guanacaste for the period 1981-2020 and their dimensionality was reduced
using the Principal Components (PCs) analysis. The Pearson correlations between the PCs and their respective
indexes were calculated to study the regions with the greatest influence of the PC. These PCs were compared with
indices from climate variability sources such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,
and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). A relative warming (cooling) of the Atlantic relative to the equatorial Pacific
favors earlier (later) IELL, later (earlier) TELL, shorter (longer) DES, and longer (shorter) DELL. Conversely, a stronger
(weaker) CLLJ favour later (earlier) IELL, earlier (later) TELL, longer (shorter) DES, and shorter (longer) DELL.
Esta investigación estudió el comportamiento y la distribución espacial del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa
(IELL y TELL, respectivamente), así como la duración de las estaciones seca y lluviosa sobre la provincia de Guanacaste
(DES y DELL, respectivamente). Se determinaron y caracterizaron estadísticamente las fechas del IELL, TELL, DES y
DELL, usando datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1981-2020 y se validaron contra
datos de precipitación de estaciones meteorológicas. Los IELL ocurren más tempranos en cantones centrales de
Guanacaste alrededor de la desembocadura del río Tempisque, con fechas más tardías al desplazarse hacia zonas
costeras, limítrofes con Alajuela y al norte de la provincia. Los TELL se distribuyen uniformemente, con valores tardíos
al sur y valores tempranos en la zona central y norte de Guanacaste. La DES y DELL, son uniformes en la región con
las condiciones más secas al norte y las más húmedas al sur y este de la región, con aproximadamente una mitad del
año como estación seca y la otra como estación lluviosa. Las tendencias indican que los IELL son más tempranos, los
TELL más tardíos, las DES más cortas y las DELL más largas.
Abstract:
This research aims to characterize the behavior and spatial distribution of the onset and demise of the rainy season
(IELL and TELL, respectively for their acronym in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry and rainy seasons over
the province of Guanacaste (DES and DELL, respectively for their acronym in Spanish). The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL
dates are determined and statistically characterized, using a gridded precipitation dataset for Guanacaste for the
period 1981-2020 and validated against precipitation data from meteorological gauge stations. IELLs occur earlier in
central cantons of Guanacaste around the mouth of the Tempisque river, with later dates as moving towards coastal
regions, bordering Alajuela and to the north of the province. TELLs are uniformly distributed, with late values in the
south and early values in the central and northern areas of Guanacaste. DES and DELL are uniform in the region with
the driest conditions in the north and the most humid places in the south and east of the region, with approximately
one half of the year as a dry season and the other half as a rainy season. The trends indicate earlier IELLs, later TELLs,
shorter DES, and longer DELLs.
Models (GCMs) from version 6 of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project, namely the EC Earth3,
GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in the HBV
hydrological model to estimate design streamflow projections
with 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for the
selected main basins of Costa Rica. The changes in these
streamflows were computed between the baseline period
(1985–2015) and the mid-century projection (2035–2065)
for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The novelty resides in being the
first study that explores the magnitude of climate changes
in design flows of Costa Rica, a tropical country. Although,
calibration and validation statistics are generally good for
most of the basins, only around one quarter of the simulations
reproduce the observed distribution of the 3-day
annual maximum flows. Results show that the MPI model
presents lower sensitivity with changes of different sign
depending on the basin studied and the other two models
suggest only significant increases in the design flow in
most of the basins. Results of the model’s ensemble suggests
a great concern, as there is a general increase in the
design flows, and the magnitudes of the changes are large,
especially in the Pacific slope.
Minimum Zones or OMZ in and around the methane seeps of the Eastern Tropical Pacifi c (ETP),
Costa Rica, through the analysis of temperature, salinity, density, and oxygen profi les. The data used
in this work were collected during several oceanographic research campaigns in the Pacifi c continental
margin and off shore of Costa Rica, between 2009 and 2019, using a CTDs, as the profi ler of
physical parameters of the water column. In general, it was observed that dissolved oxygen gradually
decreases with depth to the thermocline, then its concentration decreases more rapidly and remains
low, indicating the presence of the OMZ and tends to increase slightly at greater depths. Mean vertical
extension of the OMZ near and around the seeps was 763 m and the mean depth for the minimum
dissolved oxygen value was 393 m. Spatial diff erences of measurements taken at stations near the
methane seeps were calculated with respect to the measurements at the station located above them.
Overall, a greater variability of the oxygen anomalies was observed within the mixed layer, while
under the thermocline their values remain stable and around zero.
atmospheric circulation and precipitation over Central America and
its surrounding areas. Specifically, the clustering algorithm k-means++ is
applied to three coarse-grained datasets from ERA-interim reanalysis that
are the candidates for representing the atmospheric state vector, each candidate
contains its full temporal variability. Datasets are composed of: a) wind
fields at 925, 800 and 200 hPa, b) same as “a)” plus convective available potential
energy and c) same as “a)” plus total column water vapor. Clustering
metrics, namely the variance ratio criterion, the silhouette criterion and the
mean squared error, are computed to quantify clustering quality. Clusters
are interpreted as weather types, recurrent configurations of the atmospheric
state vector associated with observable weather states. The correct number
of clusters for each dataset is determined with a Monte Carlo test of normality,
to assure cluster existence. The main objective is to obtain a set
of weather types containing elements that characterize the transition from
and to the rainy season over the Pacific side of Central America as well as
other elements of the seasonal cycle of regional precipitation, such as the
Mid-Summer Drought. Besides the statistical metrics, in order to select between
candidate datasets and plausible number of clusters, focus is given
to the temporal characteristics of the clusters. Existing literature does not
provide a set of weather types suitable to analyze seasonal transitions and
the differences in the mechanisms associated with rainfall maxima.
Las zonas transfronterizas poseen un contexto muy particular que influye en los alcances del desarrollo rural de América Central. Por un lado, se cuenta progresivamente con más información sobre la influencia de aspectos biofísicos y climáticos en la variabilidad climática y los medios de vida locales; por otro, hay una necesidad constante de adaptar políticas y opciones de adaptación a los intereses de tomadores de decisores y población, políticas internacionales, efectos de la globalización y el imaginario del territorio. Esto genera una dinámica de cambio constante que implica un fuerte reto para la gestión del territorio y sus recursos. En el presente artículo se aborda el caso de estudio del cantón La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, dado que resalta algunos de los principales desafíos de territorios transfronterizos de América Central. A través del análisis transdisciplinario del caso de estudio se identifican los principales desafíos para el desarrollo rural en este territorio, con énfasis en dinámicas particulares de zonas transfronterizas que deben ser tomadas en cuenta para facilitar el desarrollo territorial rural. Se propone un marco integrado de abordaje de la complejidad de las dinámicas del territorio basado en el marco de medios de vida sostenibles y capitales de la comunidad. A partir de la consideración de este marco holístico e integrador se plantean tres estrategias para facilitar la adaptación a la variabilidad climática. Este trabajo demuestra la oportunidad de la integración de la extensión e investigación transdisciplinaria para la gestión del riesgo climático en comunidades rurales.
Abstract:
Cross-border areas have a very particular context that influences the scope of rural development in Central America. On one hand, there is progressively more information on the influence of biophysical and climatic aspects on climate variability and local livelihoods; on the other, there is a constant need to adapt policies and adaptation options to the interests of decision-makers and the population, international policies, the effects of globalization and the imaginary of the territory. This generates a dynamic of constant change that implies a strong challenge for the management of the territory and its resources. This paper addresses the case study
of the canton La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica as it highlights some of the main challenges of cross-border territories in Central America. Through a transdisciplinary analysis of the case study, the main challenges for rural development in this territory are identified, with emphasis on the dynamics of cross-border zones that must be considered to facilitate rural territorial development. An integrated framework is proposed to address the complexity of the territory's dynamics based on the framework of sustainable livelihoods and community capitals. Based on the consideration of this holistic and integrative framework, three strategies are proposed to facilitate adaptation to climate variability. This work demonstrates the opportunity of integrating transdisciplinary extension and research for climate risk management in rural communities.
Resumo:
As áreas transfronteiriças têm um contexto muito particular que influencia o âmbito do desenvolvimento rural na América Central. Por um lado, existe cada vez mais informação sobre a influência dos aspectos biofísicos e climáticos na variabilidade climática e nos meios de subsistência locais; Por outro lado, existe uma necessidade constante de adaptação das políticas e das opções de adaptação aos interesses dos decisores e da população, às políticas internacionais, aos efeitos da globalização e ao imaginário do território. Isto gera uma dinâmica de constante mudança que implica um forte desafio para a gestão do território e dos seus recursos. Este artigo aborda o estudo de caso do cantão La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, uma vez que destaca alguns dos principais desafios dos territórios transfronteiriços na América Central. Através da análise transdisciplinar do estudo de caso, são identificados os principais desafios para o desenvolvimento rural neste território, com destaque para dinâmicas particulares de áreas transfronteiriças que devem ser tidas em conta para facilitar o desenvolvimento territorial rural. É proposto um quadro integrado para abordar a complexidade da dinâmica do território com base no quadro de meios de subsistência sustentáveis e capitais comunitários. Com base na consideração deste quadro holístico e integrador, são propostas três estratégias para facilitar a adaptação à variabilidade climática. Este trabalho demonstra a oportunidade de integrar extensão e pesquisa transdisciplinar para a gestão de riscos climáticos em comunidades rurais.
climate variability and the adverse effects of climate change, showing high
vulnerability compounded by its historical context and socioeconomic structure.
In light of the important findings published by theWGII of the IPCC AR6 in 2022 on
the adverse effects of climate change on the Central American region, there is still
a clear need to improve data availability and to increase the number of studies on
projections of changes in the climate, risks, impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation
from the region to inform decision-makers and practitioners. The region has
seen an increase in the number of adaptation projects implemented; however,
there is limited information about their success or failure, and there are few
case studies and reviews of lessons learned, highlighting an important gap in the
implementation of effective adaptation measures. This article presents a current
review of the literature on climatology, hydrology, impacts and vulnerability,
mitigation and adaptation responses, action plans, and potential losses and
damages in the region. It also proposes actionable recommendations based on
the main gaps found and presents a case study of the Central American Dry
Corridor, one of the climate change and underdevelopment hotspots of the
region. We finish with a discussion highlighting the importance of considering
system transitions perspectives and the need to plan and implement more
transformational adaptation approaches to reduce further losses and damages and
to further address adaptation gaps in Central America.
Resumo: O estado do Ceará é uma região semiárida localizada na região Nordeste do Brasil, caracterizada por uma estação chuvosa irregular, grande variabilidade climática impulsionada principalmente pelo fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS), Temperatura da superfície do Mar (TSM) do Atlântico Sul tropical e eventos climáticos extremos. As secas e seus efeitos foram estudados para determinar sua frequência e ajudar a reduzir seus impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais. Para tanto, avaliamos a variabilidade espaço-temporal do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e caracterizamos a seca para as doze regiões hidrográficas do Estado do Ceará nas escalas de 3, 6 e 12 meses. Os dados compreendem o período 1980-2020 considerando os valores mensais de precipitação fornecidos pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME). Durante os anos de 1982 e 1993, o SPI detectou as maiores secas do estado. Verificou-se também que 1996 e 1998 foram os anos com eventos secos menos intensos, apresentados nas escalas 3, 6 e 12 meses do SPI. O índice provou ser uma ferramenta útil para a identificação da seca na área de estudo em diferentes escalas de tempo. Usando a análise wavelet encontramos um aumento da potência espectral nas periodicidades de 4-10 anos, especialmente por volta de 1982 e 2011, mas essas oscilações não parecem ser significativas acima do espectro de ruído vermelho. Descobrimos que condições mais frias e mais quentes de ENOS e a variabilidade da TSM do Atlântico Sul tropical, respectivamente, estavam relacionadas com estações chuvosas mais úmidas, enquanto condições opostas de TSM com estações mais secas.
Resumen: El estado de Ceará es una región semiárida ubicada en la región Nordeste de Brasil, caracterizada por una estación lluviosa irregular, gran variabilidad climática impulsada principalmente por el fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS), la Temperatura de la Superficie del Mar (TSM) del trópico Atlántico Sur y fenómenos meteorológicos extremos. Se estudiaron las sequías y sus efectos para determinar su frecuencia y ayudar a reducir sus impactos económicos, sociales y ambientales. Para eso, evaluamos la variabilidad espacio-temporal del Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado (SPI) y caracterizamos la sequía para las doce regiones hidrográficas del Estado de Ceará en las escalas de 3, 6 y 12 meses. Los datos abarcan el período 1980-2020 considerando los valores mensuales de precipitación proporcionados por la Fundación Cearense de Meteorología y Recursos Hídricos(FUNCEME). Durante los años 1982 y 1993, el SPI detectó las mayores sequías en el estado. También se verificó que 1996 y 1998 fueron los años con eventos secos menos intensos, presentados en las escalas de 3, 6 y 12 meses del SPI. El índice demostró ser una herramienta útil para identificar la sequía en el área de estudio en diferentes escalas de tiempo. Mediante el análisis de wavelet, encontramos aumentos en la potencia espectral con periodicidades de 4 a 10 años, especialmente alrededor de 1982 y 2011, pero estas oscilaciones no parecen ser significativas por encima del espectro de ruido rojo. Descobrimos que condições mais frias e mais quentes de ENOS y a usare da TSM do Atlântico Sul tropical, respectivamente, estavam relacionados com estações chuvosas mais úmidas, enquanto condições opostas de TSM com estações mais secas.
the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the rains present a bimodal annual cycle, observing a relative minimum
in the months of September and October. [Objective]: Characterize the observed decrease in rainfall in this region
for this bimester, estimating for each event, the variables associated with the values of the onset day, minimum day,
demise day, duration, intensity, and magnitude, in 1979-2010. [Methodology]: A set of 31 daily records from rain
gauge stations was used. In each of them, the months from July to November were examined to find the values of
the minimum, the date of the minimum, the onset and the demise, duration, and intensity. The occurrence of any
temporal or spatial trend in these characteristics of the events was explored. Finally, different climatic indices and
documentary sources were reviewed to identify the possible synoptic causes of the strongest decreases in rainfall.
[Results]: The beginning of the events was observed around September 3rd, their minimum on September 23rd
and the end on October 12th, with an approximate duration of 39 days. Events tend to happen earlier at stations
located northwest on the isthmus. The driest events occurred under favorable conditions for the occurrence of
winds with a southwest-west component over the region. [Conclusions]: Knowledge about these characteristics
of precipitation helps in the activity planning of key socioeconomic sectors in Central America in case of adverse
hydrometeorological events.
oceanic dynamics and serve as dynamical downscaling models. In other words,
RCMs use atmospheric and oceanic climate output from general circulation
models (GCM) to develop a higher resolution climate output. They are computationally
demanding and, depending on the application, require several orders
of magnitude of compute time more than statistical climate downscaling. In this
article, we describe how to use a spatio-temporal statistical model with varying
coefficients (VC), as a downscaling emulator for a RCM using VC. In order to
estimate the proposed model, two options are compared: INLA, and varycoef.
We set up a simulation to compare the performance of bothmethods for building
a statistical downscaling emulator for RCM, and then show that the emulator
works properly for NARCCAP data. The results show that the model is able
to estimate non-stationary marginal effects, which means that the downscaling
output can vary over space. Furthermore, the model has flexibility to estimate
the mean of any variable in space and time, and has good prediction results.
INLA was the fastest method for all the cases, and the approximation with best
accuracy to estimate the different parameters from the model and the posterior
distribution of the response variable.
multi-disciplinary collaboration monitoring the links between health and climate
change. It brings togethers lead researchers from 43 academic institutions and
UN agencies in every continent, publishing annual updates of its findings to
provide decision-makers with high-quality evidence-based recommendations.
For its 2022 assessment visit https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2022-report/
The Lancet Countdown South America exists to promote research on health
and climate change in the region, to encourage regional engagement on how
climate change is affecting health across the continent, and challenge countries
to respond in line with the evidence. It is the only academic centre in South
America specifically researching climate change and health and is based at the
Clima centre at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (UPCH) in Lima, Peru.
de disponibilidad de agua, por lo que en esta
investigación se modelaron eventos extremos de
precipitación y temperatura bajo el escenario de cambio climático
pesimista de concentraciones, el cual podrá utilizarse
como insumo del análisis de riesgo climático. Como una
forma de determinar la oferta de agua dentro del cantón, se
estimó el balance hídrico para la cuenca madre. Estos insumos
pueden ser utilizados por los habitantes del cantón y
funcionarios de instituciones para la toma de decisiones en
el futuro con relación con el tema del agua.
política, para fortalecer la investigación y la gestión de los océanos y las costas. Con un 92% de superficie
marina, Costa Rica es una nación de mar, que posee una gran diversidad marina, y que realiza esfuerzos
para conocer mejor sus recursos costeros y marinos. En los últimos 20 años, se han desarrollado políticas
para promover la gestión integrada de nuestras zonas costeras y la creación de áreas marinas protegidas.
Mediante la investigación de las universidades públicas, conocemos mejor, aunque de manera incompleta,
cómo se encuentran nuestros recursos pesqueros y acuicultura, los impactos de la contaminación marina
y sus efectos sobre organismos y ecosistemas, los impactos del cambio climático, así como los esfuerzos
para impulsar la conservación marina y la restauración de los ecosistemas marino-costeros y sus servicios.
Del análisis de estas áreas de estudios, es evidente, que existen vacíos de información que deben
ser abordados para generar más información científica que permita la toma de decisiones adecuadas y
basadas en la ciencia, con el objeto de mejorar las políticas púbicas relacionadas a las zonas costeras, sus
recursos, los servicios ecosistémicos, la gestión de las numerosas fuentes de contaminación continental
que llegan a la costa y la adaptación al cambio climático.
and multiannualvariabilityofrainfallisamajorconcern,particularlyfor
crops. Variabilityintherainyseasonwasexaminedconsideringtheonsetand
demise oftheannualrainyseason,thetotalrainvolume,therainfallseason
duration andtheintenseprecipitationeventsrecordedinmeteorologicalsta-
tions (1978–2020). Weanalysedindividualtimeseriesandcalculatedthelong-
term trend.Additionally,weexploredtherelationshipbetweeneachsummer
rainfall characteristicandseveraloceanographicindicesusingmultivariate
techniques. WealsodevelopedaTrans-IsthmicIndexfromtherelationship
between theElNiño–Southern OscillationandtheAtlanticMultidecadal
Oscillation. Thisindexallowsfordeterminingtheeffectoftheoverallinflu-
ence oftheoceanonclimate.Thetimeseriesanalysisrevealedahighinterann-
ual variabilityandlong-termpositivetrendsconcerningthedurationofthe
rainy seasonwithearlieronsetandlaterdemise,andthetotalrainfallvolume
and alsoapositivetrendfortheoccurrenceofheavyprecipitationsuggestinga
shift inintra-annualpatterns.Spatially,theanalysisrevealedclustersofsta-
tions withasimilarvariation,probablyrelatedtotheAMO,NIÑO3.4orTII
indices. ThespatialpatternwasconfirmedbyanalysingCHIRPSgriddedpre-
cipitation data.Ourresultsshowthatwetterconditionsareassociatedwith
lower temperaturesintheequatorialPacificandwarmerconditionsinthe
Atlantic.
El inicio y término de la estación lluviosa (IELL y TELL, respectivamente), así como de la duración de las estaciones seca
y lluviosa (DES y DELL, respectivamente) sobre la provincia de Guanacaste puede ser afectada por diversas fuentes
de variabilidad climática que modulan las precipitaciones en América Central. Se determina el IELL, TELL, DES y DELL,
con datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1981-2020 y se redujo su dimensionalidad
mediante el análisis de Componentes Principales (CP). Se calcularon las correlaciones de Pearson entre las CP y sus
respectivos índices, para estudiar las regiones que presentan mayor influencia de las CP. Estas CP se compararon con
índices de fuentes de variabilidad climática como El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, la Oscilación Multidecenal del Atlántico
y la corriente en chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe (CLLJ, por sus siglas en inglés). Un calentamiento (enfriamiento)
relativo del Atlántico con respecto al Pacífico ecuatorial favorece IELL tempranos (tardíos), TELL tardíos (tempranos),
DES cortas (largas) y DELL largas (cortas); mientras que un CLLJ intenso (débil) favorece IELL tardíos (tempranos), TELL
tempranos (tardíos), DES largas (cortas) y DELL cortas (largas).
Abstract:
The onset and demise of the rainy season (IELL and TELL, respectively in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry
and rainy seasons (DES and DELL, respectively in Spanish) in the province of Guanacaste can be affected by various
sources of climate variability that modulates rainfall in Central America. The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL are determined
with gridded precipitation data over Guanacaste for the period 1981-2020 and their dimensionality was reduced
using the Principal Components (PCs) analysis. The Pearson correlations between the PCs and their respective
indexes were calculated to study the regions with the greatest influence of the PC. These PCs were compared with
indices from climate variability sources such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,
and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). A relative warming (cooling) of the Atlantic relative to the equatorial Pacific
favors earlier (later) IELL, later (earlier) TELL, shorter (longer) DES, and longer (shorter) DELL. Conversely, a stronger
(weaker) CLLJ favour later (earlier) IELL, earlier (later) TELL, longer (shorter) DES, and shorter (longer) DELL.
Esta investigación estudió el comportamiento y la distribución espacial del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa
(IELL y TELL, respectivamente), así como la duración de las estaciones seca y lluviosa sobre la provincia de Guanacaste
(DES y DELL, respectivamente). Se determinaron y caracterizaron estadísticamente las fechas del IELL, TELL, DES y
DELL, usando datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1981-2020 y se validaron contra
datos de precipitación de estaciones meteorológicas. Los IELL ocurren más tempranos en cantones centrales de
Guanacaste alrededor de la desembocadura del río Tempisque, con fechas más tardías al desplazarse hacia zonas
costeras, limítrofes con Alajuela y al norte de la provincia. Los TELL se distribuyen uniformemente, con valores tardíos
al sur y valores tempranos en la zona central y norte de Guanacaste. La DES y DELL, son uniformes en la región con
las condiciones más secas al norte y las más húmedas al sur y este de la región, con aproximadamente una mitad del
año como estación seca y la otra como estación lluviosa. Las tendencias indican que los IELL son más tempranos, los
TELL más tardíos, las DES más cortas y las DELL más largas.
Abstract:
This research aims to characterize the behavior and spatial distribution of the onset and demise of the rainy season
(IELL and TELL, respectively for their acronym in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry and rainy seasons over
the province of Guanacaste (DES and DELL, respectively for their acronym in Spanish). The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL
dates are determined and statistically characterized, using a gridded precipitation dataset for Guanacaste for the
period 1981-2020 and validated against precipitation data from meteorological gauge stations. IELLs occur earlier in
central cantons of Guanacaste around the mouth of the Tempisque river, with later dates as moving towards coastal
regions, bordering Alajuela and to the north of the province. TELLs are uniformly distributed, with late values in the
south and early values in the central and northern areas of Guanacaste. DES and DELL are uniform in the region with
the driest conditions in the north and the most humid places in the south and east of the region, with approximately
one half of the year as a dry season and the other half as a rainy season. The trends indicate earlier IELLs, later TELLs,
shorter DES, and longer DELLs.
Models (GCMs) from version 6 of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project, namely the EC Earth3,
GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in the HBV
hydrological model to estimate design streamflow projections
with 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for the
selected main basins of Costa Rica. The changes in these
streamflows were computed between the baseline period
(1985–2015) and the mid-century projection (2035–2065)
for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The novelty resides in being the
first study that explores the magnitude of climate changes
in design flows of Costa Rica, a tropical country. Although,
calibration and validation statistics are generally good for
most of the basins, only around one quarter of the simulations
reproduce the observed distribution of the 3-day
annual maximum flows. Results show that the MPI model
presents lower sensitivity with changes of different sign
depending on the basin studied and the other two models
suggest only significant increases in the design flow in
most of the basins. Results of the model’s ensemble suggests
a great concern, as there is a general increase in the
design flows, and the magnitudes of the changes are large,
especially in the Pacific slope.
Minimum Zones or OMZ in and around the methane seeps of the Eastern Tropical Pacifi c (ETP),
Costa Rica, through the analysis of temperature, salinity, density, and oxygen profi les. The data used
in this work were collected during several oceanographic research campaigns in the Pacifi c continental
margin and off shore of Costa Rica, between 2009 and 2019, using a CTDs, as the profi ler of
physical parameters of the water column. In general, it was observed that dissolved oxygen gradually
decreases with depth to the thermocline, then its concentration decreases more rapidly and remains
low, indicating the presence of the OMZ and tends to increase slightly at greater depths. Mean vertical
extension of the OMZ near and around the seeps was 763 m and the mean depth for the minimum
dissolved oxygen value was 393 m. Spatial diff erences of measurements taken at stations near the
methane seeps were calculated with respect to the measurements at the station located above them.
Overall, a greater variability of the oxygen anomalies was observed within the mixed layer, while
under the thermocline their values remain stable and around zero.
atmospheric circulation and precipitation over Central America and
its surrounding areas. Specifically, the clustering algorithm k-means++ is
applied to three coarse-grained datasets from ERA-interim reanalysis that
are the candidates for representing the atmospheric state vector, each candidate
contains its full temporal variability. Datasets are composed of: a) wind
fields at 925, 800 and 200 hPa, b) same as “a)” plus convective available potential
energy and c) same as “a)” plus total column water vapor. Clustering
metrics, namely the variance ratio criterion, the silhouette criterion and the
mean squared error, are computed to quantify clustering quality. Clusters
are interpreted as weather types, recurrent configurations of the atmospheric
state vector associated with observable weather states. The correct number
of clusters for each dataset is determined with a Monte Carlo test of normality,
to assure cluster existence. The main objective is to obtain a set
of weather types containing elements that characterize the transition from
and to the rainy season over the Pacific side of Central America as well as
other elements of the seasonal cycle of regional precipitation, such as the
Mid-Summer Drought. Besides the statistical metrics, in order to select between
candidate datasets and plausible number of clusters, focus is given
to the temporal characteristics of the clusters. Existing literature does not
provide a set of weather types suitable to analyze seasonal transitions and
the differences in the mechanisms associated with rainfall maxima.
Las zonas transfronterizas poseen un contexto muy particular que influye en los alcances del desarrollo rural de América Central. Por un lado, se cuenta progresivamente con más información sobre la influencia de aspectos biofísicos y climáticos en la variabilidad climática y los medios de vida locales; por otro, hay una necesidad constante de adaptar políticas y opciones de adaptación a los intereses de tomadores de decisores y población, políticas internacionales, efectos de la globalización y el imaginario del territorio. Esto genera una dinámica de cambio constante que implica un fuerte reto para la gestión del territorio y sus recursos. En el presente artículo se aborda el caso de estudio del cantón La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, dado que resalta algunos de los principales desafíos de territorios transfronterizos de América Central. A través del análisis transdisciplinario del caso de estudio se identifican los principales desafíos para el desarrollo rural en este territorio, con énfasis en dinámicas particulares de zonas transfronterizas que deben ser tomadas en cuenta para facilitar el desarrollo territorial rural. Se propone un marco integrado de abordaje de la complejidad de las dinámicas del territorio basado en el marco de medios de vida sostenibles y capitales de la comunidad. A partir de la consideración de este marco holístico e integrador se plantean tres estrategias para facilitar la adaptación a la variabilidad climática. Este trabajo demuestra la oportunidad de la integración de la extensión e investigación transdisciplinaria para la gestión del riesgo climático en comunidades rurales.
Abstract:
Cross-border areas have a very particular context that influences the scope of rural development in Central America. On one hand, there is progressively more information on the influence of biophysical and climatic aspects on climate variability and local livelihoods; on the other, there is a constant need to adapt policies and adaptation options to the interests of decision-makers and the population, international policies, the effects of globalization and the imaginary of the territory. This generates a dynamic of constant change that implies a strong challenge for the management of the territory and its resources. This paper addresses the case study
of the canton La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica as it highlights some of the main challenges of cross-border territories in Central America. Through a transdisciplinary analysis of the case study, the main challenges for rural development in this territory are identified, with emphasis on the dynamics of cross-border zones that must be considered to facilitate rural territorial development. An integrated framework is proposed to address the complexity of the territory's dynamics based on the framework of sustainable livelihoods and community capitals. Based on the consideration of this holistic and integrative framework, three strategies are proposed to facilitate adaptation to climate variability. This work demonstrates the opportunity of integrating transdisciplinary extension and research for climate risk management in rural communities.
Resumo:
As áreas transfronteiriças têm um contexto muito particular que influencia o âmbito do desenvolvimento rural na América Central. Por um lado, existe cada vez mais informação sobre a influência dos aspectos biofísicos e climáticos na variabilidade climática e nos meios de subsistência locais; Por outro lado, existe uma necessidade constante de adaptação das políticas e das opções de adaptação aos interesses dos decisores e da população, às políticas internacionais, aos efeitos da globalização e ao imaginário do território. Isto gera uma dinâmica de constante mudança que implica um forte desafio para a gestão do território e dos seus recursos. Este artigo aborda o estudo de caso do cantão La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, uma vez que destaca alguns dos principais desafios dos territórios transfronteiriços na América Central. Através da análise transdisciplinar do estudo de caso, são identificados os principais desafios para o desenvolvimento rural neste território, com destaque para dinâmicas particulares de áreas transfronteiriças que devem ser tidas em conta para facilitar o desenvolvimento territorial rural. É proposto um quadro integrado para abordar a complexidade da dinâmica do território com base no quadro de meios de subsistência sustentáveis e capitais comunitários. Com base na consideração deste quadro holístico e integrador, são propostas três estratégias para facilitar a adaptação à variabilidade climática. Este trabalho demonstra a oportunidade de integrar extensão e pesquisa transdisciplinar para a gestão de riscos climáticos em comunidades rurais.
climate variability and the adverse effects of climate change, showing high
vulnerability compounded by its historical context and socioeconomic structure.
In light of the important findings published by theWGII of the IPCC AR6 in 2022 on
the adverse effects of climate change on the Central American region, there is still
a clear need to improve data availability and to increase the number of studies on
projections of changes in the climate, risks, impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation
from the region to inform decision-makers and practitioners. The region has
seen an increase in the number of adaptation projects implemented; however,
there is limited information about their success or failure, and there are few
case studies and reviews of lessons learned, highlighting an important gap in the
implementation of effective adaptation measures. This article presents a current
review of the literature on climatology, hydrology, impacts and vulnerability,
mitigation and adaptation responses, action plans, and potential losses and
damages in the region. It also proposes actionable recommendations based on
the main gaps found and presents a case study of the Central American Dry
Corridor, one of the climate change and underdevelopment hotspots of the
region. We finish with a discussion highlighting the importance of considering
system transitions perspectives and the need to plan and implement more
transformational adaptation approaches to reduce further losses and damages and
to further address adaptation gaps in Central America.
Resumo: O estado do Ceará é uma região semiárida localizada na região Nordeste do Brasil, caracterizada por uma estação chuvosa irregular, grande variabilidade climática impulsionada principalmente pelo fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS), Temperatura da superfície do Mar (TSM) do Atlântico Sul tropical e eventos climáticos extremos. As secas e seus efeitos foram estudados para determinar sua frequência e ajudar a reduzir seus impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais. Para tanto, avaliamos a variabilidade espaço-temporal do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e caracterizamos a seca para as doze regiões hidrográficas do Estado do Ceará nas escalas de 3, 6 e 12 meses. Os dados compreendem o período 1980-2020 considerando os valores mensais de precipitação fornecidos pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME). Durante os anos de 1982 e 1993, o SPI detectou as maiores secas do estado. Verificou-se também que 1996 e 1998 foram os anos com eventos secos menos intensos, apresentados nas escalas 3, 6 e 12 meses do SPI. O índice provou ser uma ferramenta útil para a identificação da seca na área de estudo em diferentes escalas de tempo. Usando a análise wavelet encontramos um aumento da potência espectral nas periodicidades de 4-10 anos, especialmente por volta de 1982 e 2011, mas essas oscilações não parecem ser significativas acima do espectro de ruído vermelho. Descobrimos que condições mais frias e mais quentes de ENOS e a variabilidade da TSM do Atlântico Sul tropical, respectivamente, estavam relacionadas com estações chuvosas mais úmidas, enquanto condições opostas de TSM com estações mais secas.
Resumen: El estado de Ceará es una región semiárida ubicada en la región Nordeste de Brasil, caracterizada por una estación lluviosa irregular, gran variabilidad climática impulsada principalmente por el fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS), la Temperatura de la Superficie del Mar (TSM) del trópico Atlántico Sur y fenómenos meteorológicos extremos. Se estudiaron las sequías y sus efectos para determinar su frecuencia y ayudar a reducir sus impactos económicos, sociales y ambientales. Para eso, evaluamos la variabilidad espacio-temporal del Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado (SPI) y caracterizamos la sequía para las doce regiones hidrográficas del Estado de Ceará en las escalas de 3, 6 y 12 meses. Los datos abarcan el período 1980-2020 considerando los valores mensuales de precipitación proporcionados por la Fundación Cearense de Meteorología y Recursos Hídricos(FUNCEME). Durante los años 1982 y 1993, el SPI detectó las mayores sequías en el estado. También se verificó que 1996 y 1998 fueron los años con eventos secos menos intensos, presentados en las escalas de 3, 6 y 12 meses del SPI. El índice demostró ser una herramienta útil para identificar la sequía en el área de estudio en diferentes escalas de tiempo. Mediante el análisis de wavelet, encontramos aumentos en la potencia espectral con periodicidades de 4 a 10 años, especialmente alrededor de 1982 y 2011, pero estas oscilaciones no parecen ser significativas por encima del espectro de ruido rojo. Descobrimos que condições mais frias e mais quentes de ENOS y a usare da TSM do Atlântico Sul tropical, respectivamente, estavam relacionados com estações chuvosas mais úmidas, enquanto condições opostas de TSM com estações mais secas.
the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the rains present a bimodal annual cycle, observing a relative minimum
in the months of September and October. [Objective]: Characterize the observed decrease in rainfall in this region
for this bimester, estimating for each event, the variables associated with the values of the onset day, minimum day,
demise day, duration, intensity, and magnitude, in 1979-2010. [Methodology]: A set of 31 daily records from rain
gauge stations was used. In each of them, the months from July to November were examined to find the values of
the minimum, the date of the minimum, the onset and the demise, duration, and intensity. The occurrence of any
temporal or spatial trend in these characteristics of the events was explored. Finally, different climatic indices and
documentary sources were reviewed to identify the possible synoptic causes of the strongest decreases in rainfall.
[Results]: The beginning of the events was observed around September 3rd, their minimum on September 23rd
and the end on October 12th, with an approximate duration of 39 days. Events tend to happen earlier at stations
located northwest on the isthmus. The driest events occurred under favorable conditions for the occurrence of
winds with a southwest-west component over the region. [Conclusions]: Knowledge about these characteristics
of precipitation helps in the activity planning of key socioeconomic sectors in Central America in case of adverse
hydrometeorological events.
oceanic dynamics and serve as dynamical downscaling models. In other words,
RCMs use atmospheric and oceanic climate output from general circulation
models (GCM) to develop a higher resolution climate output. They are computationally
demanding and, depending on the application, require several orders
of magnitude of compute time more than statistical climate downscaling. In this
article, we describe how to use a spatio-temporal statistical model with varying
coefficients (VC), as a downscaling emulator for a RCM using VC. In order to
estimate the proposed model, two options are compared: INLA, and varycoef.
We set up a simulation to compare the performance of bothmethods for building
a statistical downscaling emulator for RCM, and then show that the emulator
works properly for NARCCAP data. The results show that the model is able
to estimate non-stationary marginal effects, which means that the downscaling
output can vary over space. Furthermore, the model has flexibility to estimate
the mean of any variable in space and time, and has good prediction results.
INLA was the fastest method for all the cases, and the approximation with best
accuracy to estimate the different parameters from the model and the posterior
distribution of the response variable.
multi-disciplinary collaboration monitoring the links between health and climate
change. It brings togethers lead researchers from 43 academic institutions and
UN agencies in every continent, publishing annual updates of its findings to
provide decision-makers with high-quality evidence-based recommendations.
For its 2022 assessment visit https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2022-report/
The Lancet Countdown South America exists to promote research on health
and climate change in the region, to encourage regional engagement on how
climate change is affecting health across the continent, and challenge countries
to respond in line with the evidence. It is the only academic centre in South
America specifically researching climate change and health and is based at the
Clima centre at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (UPCH) in Lima, Peru.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0717-71782002030100006
Central American isthmus, is very important since it has been observed that more or less
humid conditions during AMJ tend to be preceded by early or late starts of the rainy season.
A late onset of rainfall, for example, followed by drier than normal conditions during
MJ and by a subsequent period of intense summer or heatwave, can significantly affect
key socioeconomic sectors in the isthmus such as hydropower generation, drinking water
supply or agriculture. In this presentation, data from 162 rainfall stations were used to
construct predictive models for MJ as the first peak of the rainy season, using Canonical
Correlation Analysis (CCA). The aspects to predict during MJ are rainfall accumulation and
the Normalized Precipitation Index (NPI) in Central America. The sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies observed in the 63°N - 10°S and 152° E - 15°W domain were used as
predictors. The CCA models, using the SST anomalies in February, show a good predictive
ability of the accumulations and the NPI during MJ, in an important region of Central
America. The results showed that warmer (cold) conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific
SST anomalies, along with colder (warmer) conditions in the North Tropical Atlantic
during February, tend to be correlated with drier (wet) periods during the next MJ bimester
in virtually the entire isthmus. This suggests that the SST could modulate rainfall
during MJ in Central America by influencing the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone and the magnitude of trade winds.