How high of a seed can the Coyotes get in the FCS playoffs?

Nov. 17—VERMILLION — The University of South Dakota football program finds itself in uncharted waters as it steers toward the regular season's end.

Ranked fifth in the FCS Stats Perform poll and boasting an 8-2 record, USD isn't just on the brink of its third FCS playoff appearance in program history, rather, it's positioned itself to get its first-ever seed, which means the Coyotes would receive a first-round bye and host a second-round home game.

And facing winless Western Illinois at 1 p.m. Saturday in Macomb, Illinois, the question seems to be less about whether the Coyotes can secure a seed and more so: how high of a seed can USD get?

Without weekly playoff rankings released from the committee, it's tricky to make assumptions. But utilizing the committee's single top-10 ranking on Oct. 26 and the current Stats Perform top 25, an educated guess can be conjured.

Outlets across the country peg the Coyotes to be either the fourth or fifth seed in the tournament when its name is called Sunday morning. If USD reached the top four, it would secure home-field advantage through the quarterfinals. But how can it get there?

The best team in the country, South Dakota State, has all but locked up the No. 1 seed to the playoffs with a game remaining. Second in the Stats Perform poll is Furman, which will cap off an undefeated FCS record if it beats 1-9 Wofford on Saturday.

Ranked third and fourth, respectively, are Montana and Montana State, and the two sides square off this weekend in the annual Brawl of the Wild. Behind the Coyotes at sixth is 7-3 Idaho, and 8-2 Delaware is seventh.

If USD wins Saturday, it's unlikely to be passed by a three-loss Vandals side or a team from the Coastal Athletic Association with an identical record. But could South Dakota finish ahead of the Cat-Griz game loser? Here's a look at the resumes of the three teams to help decide.

In the playoff committee's top-10 reveal on Oct. 26, the Coyotes were ranked fourth. Since the release, USD lost to SDSU and beat ranked opponents Southern Illinois and North Dakota.

USD has four wins over ranked teams, against North Dakota State (ninth), UND (13th), SIU (16th), and Youngstown State (25th). The Coyotes are also undefeated against unranked opponents, beating those teams by an average score of 29-4.

Its losses are against FBS ninth-ranked Missouri, and the FCS top-ranked Jacks, each by lopsided margins. Take care of the Leathernecks on Saturday and the Coyotes' resume seems air-tight.

Since ranking fifth in the committee's Oct. 26 poll, the Grizzlies have won three straight games and are up to third in this week's Stats Perform poll.

At 9-1, Montana has two wins over top-25 teams, beating No. 6 Idaho and No. 8 Sacramento State. However, the Griz had a bad loss, falling to 4-6 Northern Arizona 28-14 on Sept. 23. Further harming Montana was its weak nonconference schedule. It played newly-minted Division I Utah Tech, non-scholarship Butler, and Division II Ferris State.

If the Griz defeat No. 4 Montana State Saturday, it will notch a third top-10 win, which would secure it ahead of the Coyotes and possibly push itself into the two-spot, surpassing Furman.

If UM loses, a second loss alongside the NAU defeat would give USD a better FCS record. Could the Grizzlies' two top-ten wins combat that?

The Bobcats have no bad losses, losing narrowly on the road at the No. 1 Jacks in September and falling to sixth-ranked Idaho by three in October.

In its wins, MSU has outscored opponents by an average score of 50-18. The Bobcats boast the best scoring offense in the FCS, averaging 43.8 points per game. The team was second in the committee's Oct. 26 release, which came prior to its loss to the Vandals.

However, the Bobcats are limited in the quality win department, with just one ranked win against No. 8 Sacramento State.

A second top-ten win over the Griz would solve that issue. Lose, they'll have three FCS losses to USD's one and carry just one ranked win. In that scenario, MSU's best argument to stave off USD is that it played the Jacks more competitively than the Coyotes did.

The FCS championship selection show will air at 11:30 a.m. Central time on Sunday, Nov. 19.