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What Cincinnati Reds selloff at July 30 trade deadline might look like | Press Box Wag

If the Cincinnati Reds have proven one thing this season, it’s that they have what it takes to beat teams in October. They’ve won season series against the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees.

If they’ve proven one other thing this season, it’s that they don’t have what it takes to get there. They’ve lost all seven series against the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Giants, Mets and most recently the Tigers – all teams with losing records through Saturday.

Reds CEO Bob Castellini, team president Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador, left to right, during spring training.
Reds CEO Bob Castellini, team president Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador, left to right, during spring training.

The series loss against the Tigers over the weekend is the biggest head-scratcher, coming on the heels of the emotional, nearly baseball-perfect sweep of the Yankees.

And it puts the Reds right back on the buyer-seller fence for a front office that expects to discuss its trade deadline direction during next week’s All-Star break.

Jeimer Candelario and the Reds have hit the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, leaving the team's trade prospects in limbo. The Reds have beaten heavyweights like the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees, but also series to losing teams like the Tigers this weekend.
Jeimer Candelario and the Reds have hit the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, leaving the team's trade prospects in limbo. The Reds have beaten heavyweights like the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees, but also series to losing teams like the Tigers this weekend.

“We know what’s on the line,” manager David Bell said coming out of New York. “The motivation, everything we need is there. We just have to go out and play the way we’re capable of.”

For now, it’s at least an open question what that is for this wildly inconsistent team in a wild, wild National League wild-card landscape.

Logo for Gordon Wittenmyer column Press Box Wag
Logo for Gordon Wittenmyer column Press Box Wag

If all the fits and starts for a team with playoff expectations are frustrating for fans, imagine the decision-making process for a front office that wants badly to find a reasonable excuse to add – but may be compelled to instead find the shrewdest way to sell.

“What’s ‘sellers’ for us?” general manager Brad Meador said. “We’re not selling off. We’re in this for the long run. We’re not tearing this down.”

That’s the thing. The young core of potential impact players isn’t going anywhere.

But all those veteran pitchers signed to short-term deals over the winter are in play. That’s the Plan A-Plan B flexibility built into a seize-the-moment approach over the winter that involved giving last year’s surprising contender a chance to get to October this year – but also providing a deadline ability to scuttle that plan, trade off the short-term guys and try it again next winter.

Frankie Montas? Nick Martinez? Justin Wilson? Even local-favorite Brent Suter?

The Reds' top prospects won't be going anywhere at the trade deadline, but several veteran pitchers signed to short-term contracts in the offseason, including Cincinnati's own Brent Suter, could be shipped to contenders.
The Reds' top prospects won't be going anywhere at the trade deadline, but several veteran pitchers signed to short-term contracts in the offseason, including Cincinnati's own Brent Suter, could be shipped to contenders.

They’ve all performed well enough to help the Reds become one of the better pitching staffs in the game. And well enough to have trade value.

With a half-season more information on the all those young players who broke into the majors the last two years, the Reds would have an opportunity as sellers to get a head start on next offseason without touching their long-term core.

“What we’re hoping is that we have a good stretch here, where we can add,” Meador said just before the whiplash results of the Yankees and Tigers series.

Would even a bunch of wins the next two series against the two worst teams in the National League — Colorado and Miami — actually say anything about this team’s fitness for a playoff run? Or be enough to dissuade selling?

Depending on the answer to that last one, the next toughest questions become where Red-hot-hitting Jonathan India and talented-but-struggling young starter Graham Ashcraft fit into that equation.

Regardless of where the brass lands on its posture for the deadline, they won’t be blowing things up. Even a seller mode would be more about strategic moves.

“That’s always the case,” Meador said. “Hopefully, those strategic moves are to add to this team to make a playoff run. We’ll just have to see how it is between now and the All-Star break.”

The Big Number: 3

When Reds center fielder Stuart Fairchild leaped at the wall to catch Gio Urshela’s drive just above the yellow paint at the top of the fence, it marked the third time this season Fairchild has robbed a home run.

That leads the majors.

That was news to Fairchild, who said he'd never had more than one robbery in a season before this.

Stuart Fairchild robbed a home run for the third time this season in the series opener against the Detroit Tigers  on Friday night.
Stuart Fairchild robbed a home run for the third time this season in the series opener against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night.

"Just the amount of opportunities I've had to do it on those plays close to the wall is unusual," he said.

He also robbed Milwaukee’s Willy Adames in right field on April 8 at home and Manny Machado in center field on May 1 in San Diego.

The three robberies netted the Reds five runs of defensive booty.

Battery Drain

Of all the Reds’ injury losses this season, the most underrated might be backup catcher Luke Maile, whose herniated disc suffered in the series finale in New York landed him on the IL for this critical stretch.

Starter Tyler Stephenson has performed well this season and in particular improved his work behind the plate.

But Maile’s value to this team was seen down the stretch last year when he was assigned personal-catcher duties with rookie Andrew Abbott and made five starts in the final nine make-or-break games, including Hunter Greene’s starts.

It earned the Covington Catholic grad a $3.5 million deal to return as a free agent this season (plus a 2025 option).

Maile had an epidural Friday in hopes of a quicker return from the IL.

Noelv-E Mart-E

Rookie third baseman Noelvi Marte has been back in the lineup for less than two weeks since an 80-game steroid suspension.

But he already has five errors in an eight-game span through Sunday. They include three throwing errors, a drop of a routine foul popup and on Sunday a muff of a routine grounder followed by a wide throw. The last one came with two outs in the eighth inning of a one-run game and led to three unearned runs.

Maybe some of it’s rust, but Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin said on Saturday’s broadcast Marte’s poor throwing mechanics are the problem.

No magic elixir for that one.

He Said It

“I know who you are. But I’m here. I have three pitches that can get you out, and I don’t think you’re expecting a fastball in the middle of the plate.”

*Reds reliever Fernando Cruz on his thoughts facing Aaron Judge with two on and one out in the seventh inning of a 3-2 game. Judge grounded into a double play.

It was the first career appearance at Yankee Stadium for Cruz, whose splitter is one of the best strikeout pitches in the game. “The best feeling in the world is shutting down the Yankees,” he said.

Greene Light on Support

Greene has been the Reds’ best pitcher all season, but has just nine decisions (5-4) to show for 18 starts, in large part because of the worst run support on the staff and among the lowest in the majors.

And the 3.4 runs of support he gets is measured by the total for the game he starts.

When he’s actually in the game? The Reds’ two runs in the fifth inning Saturday were the first runs they’d scored while he was still in the game in four starts, snapping a string of 19 consecutive scoreless.

“I wasn’t really paying attention to that. I’m just out there trying to pitch and stay focused on what I need to focus on,” he said. “A lot of the times I’m going against the ace of the team, so obviously I’ve got to be on my A game.”

In the three starts before Saturday, he faced Cardinals All-Star Lance Lynn (2-0 Reds loss), Pirates Opening Day starter Mitch Keller and Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes (1-0 loss).

“You also see so many times when you play all nine innings, and you come out on top,” Greene said after handing off a 2-0 lead following seven impressive innings Saturday and watching it turn into a loss. “You’ve just got to try to ride that and stay focused.”

Greene’s performance remains one of the biggest keys to any success the Reds might have this season.

The third-year right-hander leads the National League in pitching WAR (3.2), and his 3.45 ERA is more than a full point below his career mark his first two seasons.

Did You Know

When the Reds swept the Yankees last week in New York, it marked two firsts for a Yankees opponent.

The Reds became the first team this season to sweep the Yankees in a series longer than two games (the Mets had done it in a two-gamer).

The Reds also became the first National League team to sweep the Yankees in New York (at least three games) since interleague play began in 1997, only the sixth to pull that off in any ballpark.

Most impressive: They did it without TJ Friedl, Nick Lodolo or Johnny Bench.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: What Cincinnati Reds might do at the MLB trade deadline