Papers by Nazim Muzaffarli (Imanov)
World of Diplomacy, 2023
There are certain historical personalities whose ideas and the essence and purpose of their actio... more There are certain historical personalities whose ideas and the essence and purpose of their actions are only fully understood after time, sometimes even decades. This applies not only to people of science and art, who are regarded as creative, but also to political figures. Heydar Aliyev was one such political leader, and this explains why he is recognized as the National Leader of the Azerbaijani people, both at home and abroad.
The Caucasus & Globalization, 2006
The Caucasus & Globalization, 2007
This article examines the competitiveness of the Central Caucasian states compared to other devel... more This article examines the competitiveness of the Central Caucasian states compared to other developing countries of Europe and Central Asia. An analysis of the methodology and results of international comparative studies of business competitiveness, economic growth, technological development, public institutions, macroeconomic environment and other parameters helps to identify the areas of potential competitive advantage of countries and to develop strategies designed to achieve and enhance their comparative advantage. The implementation of these strategies depends in large part on the quality of the business environment, which is also becoming a matter of cross-country competition in the modern world.
This paper argues that the comparative assessment of the market liberalism-dirigisme in different... more This paper argues that the comparative assessment of the market liberalism-dirigisme in different economies should be done based on some specific forms of the government regulation, which are called the model-shaping forms of government intervention in the economy. For its measurement a composite indicator, called the Index of Leftness (Rightness) of Economy, is introduced. IL(R)E is calculated for 62 countries as a weighted average of six sub-indices. Then, IL(R)E (both the Index in general and each of its sub-indices) is used to identify the dependence of economic growth rates on governments' model-shaping interference in the economy. Crosscountry regression analysis shows that an increase in model-shaping government intervention in the economy (indicated by IL(R)E's change towards one) has a negative impact on economic growth, but different forms of that intervention (measured by individual sub-indices) have different impact. Besides, there is a rather profound difference between the countries with GDP per capita less and more than 30 thousand International dollars. In the second group of countries the impact is less significant. In conclusion the authors hypothesize that the process of moving the economy to the right has a more positive impact on the economic growth than its static (unchanging) proximity to the right pole.
Кавказ И Глобализация, 2007
The Caucasus Globalization, 2006
The article analyzes the political and socioeconomic situation in the Central Caucasus. It reveal... more The article analyzes the political and socioeconomic situation in the Central Caucasus. It reveals the common and particular features of the regional conflicts, the only universal principle for the settlement of which is not to permit a forceful change in the interstate borders generally recognized and confirmed by international documents. It looks, first, at the correlation between regional and interstate political stability and economic development and, second, at interstate dependence between political democracy and economic progress. It shows that in the interrelationship between regional economic development, on the one hand, and settlement of political conflicts, on the other, it is the second that comes first and so should be viewed as the absolute priority.
Кавказ И Глобализация, 2008
This article deals with matters of reconstructing areas devastated by armed conflicts. It examine... more This article deals with matters of reconstructing areas devastated by armed conflicts. It examines a wide range of problems associated with post-conflict reconstruction planning: from basic planning assumptions to the management of risks typical of large-scale government programs. In particular, it analyses the economic aspects of restoring life support systems, infrastructure and the economy. Much attention is paid to matters of post-conflict economic restructuring, identification of areas of potential competitive advantage and their promotion with direct government support, and provision of incentives for active private sector involvement in rehabilitation works. Theoretical propositions are illustrated by examples drawn from areas adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh Region of Azerbaijan, but many recommendations formulated in this article are of a universal nature and, the authors hope, can be used in reconstructing other post-conflict areas as well.
131 I noted that the Russian leadership’s persistence in creating the EurAsEC and then the Custom... more 131 I noted that the Russian leadership’s persistence in creating the EurAsEC and then the Customs Union will undoubtedly lead to very contradictory results. On the one hand, an “integration core” is indeed forming within the CIS, and it is quite probable that its three key members (Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus) will be joined by some other countries of the region. On the other hand, the integration efforts of the key members obviously create a strong barrier in relations with other Commonwealth members despite the conclusion of an agreement on a free trade area. In other words, in the next few years we are bound to see a strengthening of both centripetal and centrifugal trends in the region. In these conditions, even if the CIS nominally continues to exist, this international organization will be even more formal in character than before. The problems that have arisen in domestic political processes in the CIS countries are no less fundamental. The latent and non-formalized dissa...
This article takes a look at the main results of the economic reforms in Azerbaijan since the cou... more This article takes a look at the main results of the economic reforms in Azerbaijan since the country gained its state independence. The most important result is the country’s economic sovereignty, which is expressed, first, in sufficient independence to choose its own model of economic development, second, in the financial self-sufficiency of the national economy, and, third, in the state’s (in the form of the government and private companies) retention of its right to own most of the country’s economic potential. The transfer to mainly market methods of economic regulation is analyzed from the viewpoint of forms of ownership, the establishment of free price formation and fair competition, and the liberalization of foreign economic interactions. All of these problems are viewed in the context of interstate comparisons. The economic progress of recent years is analyzed separately. The authors show that the main factors directly or indirectly hindering the country’s efficient economic development are related to regional political contradictions and primarily to Armenia’s occupation of part of Azerbaijan’s territory. In the immediate future, the main efforts will be put into gradually moving away from competitive advantages based on material factors of production and transferring to competitiveness based on investments and efficiency; reducing the size of the informal economy; and enhancing the sectoral and territorial make-up of the economy.
GUAM: From a Tactical Alliance to Strategic Partnership. - Sweden, CA&CC Press, 2008, 2008
The advisability of joining forces in the international arena in order to resolve or prevent terr... more The advisability of joining forces in the international arena in order to resolve or prevent territorial problems was exactly what induced Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova to create GUAM in 1997. Ten years later (in October 2007) they once again stated that the development and integration of the GUAM countries was still burdened with unresolved conflicts, and reaffirmed their commitment to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of internationally recognised state borders.
The question is whether GUAM will be viable after the final restoration of its members’ territorial integrity and the settlement of territorial disputes with their neighbours in which they are now involved in one form or another. Or to put this question in a more constructive terms: will GUAM be able in the future (possibly, upon the admission of several new states from Eastern Europe and Central Asia) to turn into a community that would become a kind of democratic axis linking the western and eastern parts of the Eurasian continent?
The article examines the level of political and especially economic complementarity and compatibility of the GUAM member states. The main finding is that GUAM will survive and develop towards real international organization if the continuation of political partnership will logically lead to the deepening of economic cooperation which currently definitely is unsatisfactory.
China Finance and Economic Review, 2018
This paper argues that the comparative assessment of the market liberalism-dirigisme in different... more This paper argues that the comparative assessment of the market liberalism-dirigisme in different economies should be done based on some specific forms of the government regulation, which are called the model-shaping forms of government intervention in the economy. For its measurement a composite indicator, called the Index of Leftness (Rightness) of Economy, is introduced. IL(R)E is calculated for 62 countries as a weighted average of six sub-indices. Then, IL(R)E (both the Index in general and each of its sub-indices) is used to identify the dependence of economic growth rates on governments' model-shaping interference in the economy. Crosscountry regression analysis shows that an increase in model-shaping government intervention in the economy (indicated by IL(R)E's change towards one) has a negative impact on economic growth, but different forms of that intervention (measured by individual sub-indices) have different impact. Besides, there is a rather profound difference between the countries with GDP per capita less and more than 30 thousand International dollars. In the second group of countries the impact is less significant. In conclusion the authors hypothesize that the process of moving the economy to the right has a more positive impact on the economic growth than its static (unchanging) proximity to the right pole.
Центральная Азия и Кавказ, 2012
Central Asia and Caucasus, 2012
Центральная Азия и Кавказ, 2008
В статье показано, что союз между странами ГУАМ имеет все шансы стать жизнестойким и в ближайшие ... more В статье показано, что союз между странами ГУАМ имеет все шансы стать жизнестойким и в ближайшие десятилетия сохранится, поскольку входящие в эту структуру государства ныне вполне совместимы, то есть находятся на примерно одинаковом уровне политического и экономического развития. Коренные политические интересы государств ГУАМ обладают четко выраженной единонаправленностью, об их принципиальном совпадении можно говорить как в текущем, так и стратегическом измерениях, а экономическая взаимодополняемость этих стран носит скорее потенциальный характер, нежели фактический. Широко распространенное мнение, что политическая интеграция государств детерминируется их экономической взаимодополняемостью, к ГУАМ не применимо. В данном случае углубление экономического сотрудничества предстает как логическое продолжение политического партнерства.
Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2008
The alliance between the GUAM countries (Georgia - Ukraine - Azerbaijan - Moldova) has every chan... more The alliance between the GUAM countries (Georgia - Ukraine - Azerbaijan - Moldova) has every chance to become really viable and to continue its existence in the coming decades, because today its member states are quite compatible, i.e., they are at about the same level of political and economic development. The basic political interests of the GUAM countries are clearly unidirectional, and one can speak of the fundamental identity of these interests in both current and strategic terms, whereas the economic complementarity of these countries is more potential than actual. The widely held view that political integration between states is determined by their economic complementarity does not apply to GUAM. In this case, a deepening of economic cooperation is a logical continuation of political partnership.
Кавказ & Глобализация, 2009
Статья посвящена вопросам восстановления территорий, разрушенных вооруженными конфликтами. В ней ... more Статья посвящена вопросам восстановления территорий, разрушенных вооруженными конфликтами. В ней рассмотрен широкий спектр проблем, связанных с программированием пост конфликтной реабилитации - от исходных посылок планирования до управления рисками, типичными для широкомасштабных государственных программ. Отдельно проанализированы экономические аспекты восстановления систем жизнеобеспечения, инфраструктуры и экономики. Значительное внимание уделено вопросам пост-конфликтной экономической санации, определения сфер потенциальных конкурентных преимуществ и их продвижения при прямой государственной поддержке, а также стимулирования частного сектора с целью его активного вовлечения в реабилитационные работы.
Теоретические положения рассматриваются на примерах по территориям, прилегающим к нагорно карабахскому региону Азербайджана, однако многие сформулированные в статье рекомендации носят универсальный характер и могут, как надеются авторы, применяться при восстановлении и других пост-конфликтных территорий.
The Caucasus & Globalization, 2009
This article deals with matters of reconstructing areas devastated by armed conflicts. It examine... more This article deals with matters of reconstructing areas devastated by armed conflicts. It examines a wide range of problems associated with post-conflict reconstruction planning: from basic planning assumptions to the management of risks typical of large-scale government programs. In particular, it analyses the economic aspects of restoring life support systems, infrastructure and the economy. Much attention is paid to matters of post-conflict economic restructuring, identification of areas of potential competitive advantage and their promotion with direct government support, and provision of incentives for active private sector involvement in rehabilitation works. Theoretical propositions are illustrated by examples drawn from areas adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh Region of Azerbaijan, but many recommendations formulated in this article are of a universal nature and, the authors hope, can be used in reconstructing other post-conflict areas as well.
Кавказ & Глобализация, 2008
В статье рассмотрены главные итоги экономической трансформации Азербайджана в период его государс... more В статье рассмотрены главные итоги экономической трансформации Азербайджана в период его государственной независимости. Наиболее важным результатом признано обеспечение экономического суверенитета страны, выражающегося, во-первых, в достаточной степени самодеятельности в выборе модели экономического развития, во-вторых, в финансовой самодостаточности национальной экономики, в-третьих, в сохранении прав собственности на основную часть экономического потенциала за самим государством (его правительством и частными компаниями). Переход на доминирование рыночных методов регулирования экономики проанализирован в ракурсе композиции форм собственности, становления свободного ценообразования и справедливой конкуренции, а также либеральности внешнеэкономических интеракций. Все эти проблемы рассмотрены в контексте межгосударственных сравнений. Отдельно проанализирован прогресс экономики за последние годы.
Показано, что основные факторы, прямо или косвенно препятствующие эффективному экономическому развитию страны, связаны с региональными политическими противоречиями, в первую очередь с оккупацией Арменией части территории Азербайджана. Выделены наиболее фундаментальные задачи, которые предстоит решать в ближайшей перспективе: постепенный отказ от конкурентных преимуществ, основанных на материальных факторах производства, и переход к конкурентоспособности, базирующейся на инвестициях и эффективности; сокращение объема неформальной экономики; совершенствование отраслевой и территориальной структуры экономики.
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Papers by Nazim Muzaffarli (Imanov)
The question is whether GUAM will be viable after the final restoration of its members’ territorial integrity and the settlement of territorial disputes with their neighbours in which they are now involved in one form or another. Or to put this question in a more constructive terms: will GUAM be able in the future (possibly, upon the admission of several new states from Eastern Europe and Central Asia) to turn into a community that would become a kind of democratic axis linking the western and eastern parts of the Eurasian continent?
The article examines the level of political and especially economic complementarity and compatibility of the GUAM member states. The main finding is that GUAM will survive and develop towards real international organization if the continuation of political partnership will logically lead to the deepening of economic cooperation which currently definitely is unsatisfactory.
Теоретические положения рассматриваются на примерах по территориям, прилегающим к нагорно карабахскому региону Азербайджана, однако многие сформулированные в статье рекомендации носят универсальный характер и могут, как надеются авторы, применяться при восстановлении и других пост-конфликтных территорий.
Показано, что основные факторы, прямо или косвенно препятствующие эффективному экономическому развитию страны, связаны с региональными политическими противоречиями, в первую очередь с оккупацией Арменией части территории Азербайджана. Выделены наиболее фундаментальные задачи, которые предстоит решать в ближайшей перспективе: постепенный отказ от конкурентных преимуществ, основанных на материальных факторах производства, и переход к конкурентоспособности, базирующейся на инвестициях и эффективности; сокращение объема неформальной экономики; совершенствование отраслевой и территориальной структуры экономики.
The question is whether GUAM will be viable after the final restoration of its members’ territorial integrity and the settlement of territorial disputes with their neighbours in which they are now involved in one form or another. Or to put this question in a more constructive terms: will GUAM be able in the future (possibly, upon the admission of several new states from Eastern Europe and Central Asia) to turn into a community that would become a kind of democratic axis linking the western and eastern parts of the Eurasian continent?
The article examines the level of political and especially economic complementarity and compatibility of the GUAM member states. The main finding is that GUAM will survive and develop towards real international organization if the continuation of political partnership will logically lead to the deepening of economic cooperation which currently definitely is unsatisfactory.
Теоретические положения рассматриваются на примерах по территориям, прилегающим к нагорно карабахскому региону Азербайджана, однако многие сформулированные в статье рекомендации носят универсальный характер и могут, как надеются авторы, применяться при восстановлении и других пост-конфликтных территорий.
Показано, что основные факторы, прямо или косвенно препятствующие эффективному экономическому развитию страны, связаны с региональными политическими противоречиями, в первую очередь с оккупацией Арменией части территории Азербайджана. Выделены наиболее фундаментальные задачи, которые предстоит решать в ближайшей перспективе: постепенный отказ от конкурентных преимуществ, основанных на материальных факторах производства, и переход к конкурентоспособности, базирующейся на инвестициях и эффективности; сокращение объема неформальной экономики; совершенствование отраслевой и территориальной структуры экономики.
На основе рассчитанных Индексов левизны (правизны) экономики предложены 5 экономических моделей и исследуемые страны классифицированы по этим моделям.
Теоретически обоснована необходимость дальнейшей либерализации Азербайджанской экономики и определены главные направления экономических реформ на ближайшие годы. Авторы надеются, что теоретические инновации и практические рекомендации исследования будут интересны и полезны для экономистов и для государственных деятелей, формирующих экономическую политику.
Latest indices of leftness-rightness of the economy are calculated for 95 countries which are classified according to 5 proposed economic models.
The necessity of further liberalization of the Azerbaijani economy is theoretically justified, and the main directions of economic reforms for the coming years are determined. The authors hope that the theoretical innovations and practical recommendations of the research will be of interest and useful for economists and policymakers.
İqtisadiyyatın solluğu (sağlığı) indeksinin ayrı-ayrı ölkələr üçün hesablanmış qiymətləri əsasında 5 iqtisadi model müəyyənləşdirilmiş və dünya ölkələri bu modellər üzrə təsnifləşdirilmişdir.
Yaxın illərdə Azərbaycan iqtisadiyyatının daha da liberallaşdırılmasının zəruriliyi və tələb olunan iqtisadi islahatların başlıca istiqamətləri nəzəri formada əsaslandırılmışdır. Müəlliflər ümid edirlər ki, tədqiqatın nəzəri tapıntıları və praktik tövsiyyələri iqtisadçılar və iqtisadi siyasət qurucuları üçün maraqlı və faydalı olacaqdır.
ilə onun sosialyönlüyü arasındakı korrelyasiya asılılıqları araşdırılır.
Müəllif ümid edir ki, kitabda ifadə edilmiş nəzəri tapıntılar və praktik tövsiyələr iqtisadçılar, siyasətçilər, geniş profilli cəmiyyətşünas ekspertlər üçün maraqlı və faydalı olacaqdır.
интеграцию с формированием на более поздней стадии конфедеративного объ-
единения наподобие ЕС. Утверждается, что процесс интеграции в регионе сдер-
живают два основных фактора: то обстоятельство, что республики Север-
ного Кавказа являются субъектами Российской Федерации, и агрессивная поли-
тика Армении на Центральном Кавказе. Однако эта агрессивная политика
столь чужда духу, характеру, обычаям и традициям кавказских народов, что дол-
го выдерживать свой агрессивный курс Армения не сможет. Основываясь на
этом, автор предполагает, что, когда армянская агрессия прекратится, идея
Кавказского дома сможет реализоваться в том или ином виде.