Joe Flood
Dr Joe Flood is a mathematician, modeller and data analyst, a policy analyst, an expert on housing and urban economics, and a global authority on housing and urban indicators. He has worked for CSIRO as Principal Research Scientist, for the United Nations in a senior role, and was one of the founders of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. He has an interest in Great Planning Disasters, and from April 1 2020 he has detailed the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic in that context. As well, he is a phylogenealogist, managing a large group of people with Cornish ancestors.
Address: Melbourne
Address: Melbourne
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In late 2020, we introduced the idea of an extended one-name study or surname cluster project. The study members are men with the same or different surnames who are related on the paternal line. The different surnames mostly originate in England in the North Mercia district – Staffordshire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. The common ancestor of most of the men lived in the period just before surnames formed, in the Warm Mediaeval Period of the 12th and 13th centuries when the English population was increasing rapidly, but common people had as yet no hereditary surnames. The paternal-line descendants of this progenitor took many different surnames - including HYDE, BLOOD, COKER, HIGHFIELD, CHEATHAM, ASHMORE and JACKSON. It is an extended surname study because they would all have had the same surname if born a few centuries later.
There is an earlier branch of the family, dating back to Roman times, which has become common in Greater Poland.
"They made me sandbox monitor. I don't know why teacher did that."
One story of two whole unpublished volumes of short stories I wrote around 2012 to 2014. This one is set in the house of Dorothy Hewett in 1979. I need it for something else.
A modified survey was also administered in 1999.
Another publication contained an extended indicators set.
A presentation given to a housing conference is attached here
This strategy provides a blueprint for government action in support of
Myanmar’s housing and urban communities in the years immediately
ahead. It consists of a comprehensive set of strategic objectives and
actions in support of the principle, Appropriate affordable housing for
all in sustainable inclusive communities. The approach is different for:
‐ the formal sector of the housing market where the upper middle
class live, and
‐ the general community who live mostly in housing of traditional
impermanent materials with few services.
I'm attaching an abridged version, published in Urban Futures, which contains all the main results. I don't have the CSIRO publication, just an early draft.
In late 2020, we introduced the idea of an extended one-name study or surname cluster project. The study members are men with the same or different surnames who are related on the paternal line. The different surnames mostly originate in England in the North Mercia district – Staffordshire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. The common ancestor of most of the men lived in the period just before surnames formed, in the Warm Mediaeval Period of the 12th and 13th centuries when the English population was increasing rapidly, but common people had as yet no hereditary surnames. The paternal-line descendants of this progenitor took many different surnames - including HYDE, BLOOD, COKER, HIGHFIELD, CHEATHAM, ASHMORE and JACKSON. It is an extended surname study because they would all have had the same surname if born a few centuries later.
There is an earlier branch of the family, dating back to Roman times, which has become common in Greater Poland.
"They made me sandbox monitor. I don't know why teacher did that."
One story of two whole unpublished volumes of short stories I wrote around 2012 to 2014. This one is set in the house of Dorothy Hewett in 1979. I need it for something else.
A modified survey was also administered in 1999.
Another publication contained an extended indicators set.
A presentation given to a housing conference is attached here
This strategy provides a blueprint for government action in support of
Myanmar’s housing and urban communities in the years immediately
ahead. It consists of a comprehensive set of strategic objectives and
actions in support of the principle, Appropriate affordable housing for
all in sustainable inclusive communities. The approach is different for:
‐ the formal sector of the housing market where the upper middle
class live, and
‐ the general community who live mostly in housing of traditional
impermanent materials with few services.
I'm attaching an abridged version, published in Urban Futures, which contains all the main results. I don't have the CSIRO publication, just an early draft.
In the early panic phase to mid-May, there were nearly 100 extra pneumonia deaths, presumably unrecognised COVID deaths and extra diabetes deaths likely due to avoidance of medical care.
In the next 10 weeks to 28 July, about 6000 deaths were avoided (more than 6 times the total COVID mortality in 2020). In non COVID-19 mortality, there was a 30% drop in other respiratory deaths below the 5-year average, an 18% fall in heart deaths and an 11% fall in strokes. The mortality in each of these categories falls well outside the range for the whole 5 years. Other categories of mortality were unchanged. Lives saved are now of course very much greater.
As a first estimate, we find that sub-Saharan Africa should have about 65% of the total deaths of the USA, unless factors associated with lack of development turn out to be more significant than anticipated. This will probably work out to about 130,000 deaths in the first instance.
More extreme forms of lockdown probably cannot be sustained for any length of time in Africa, and have higher social costs and lower benefits than in Western countries. This may affect the response of some countries..
It has been quite complex and difficult to write, given that most of the information was out there by mid-March 2020.
- R1a was a small element within R1 tribespeople that entered Europe at the beginning of the Holocene, mostly through the Balkans.. They passed up into the steppe by 6000 BC.
- around 3000 BC an Event occurred that demolished the nearby Neolithic settlements containing millions of people and left only a few survivors. Two of the lucky men were R1a-Z283 and R1a-Z93, whose descendants expanded almost into unoccupied space.
- these survivors had picked up Bronze technology from their neighbours. They used it to control key resources - malachite, amber and other minerals - which were required by the new Bronze Age civilizations to the south. The trade enabled their population to keep expanding the whole way through the Bronze Age.
- about 2200 BC a major drying event sent the tribes spilling into North India, Iran and beyond, where they formed the late Harappan culture and founded Hinduism and Zoroastrianism.
- later there were other R1a expansions, particularly the Slav/Ashkenazi expansion in Greater Poland in the post-Roman period
The main points of departure from the canon are:
- no horses. the cow did it.
- trade and settlement of vacant lands, not invasion
- provides mild support for both the ''Anatolian hypothesis' and ''steppe hypothesis' - at different times.
This paper uses spatial and temporal variation in the subclade distribution of the dominant Irish/British haplogroup R1b-L21 to describe population changes in Britain and Ireland over a period of 4500 years from the early Bronze Age until the present. The main focus is on the initial spread of L21-bearing populations from south-west Britain as part of the Beaker Atlantic culture, and on a major redistribution of the haplogroup that took place in Ireland and Scotland from about 100 BC.
The distributional evidence for a British origin for L21 around 2500 BC is compelling. Most likely the mutation originated in the large Beaker colony in south-west Britain, where many old lineages still survive. From that spread point it was carried rapidly by sea into north-west France, Ireland, north-west Spain and the Middle Rhine, which today have a high incidence of L21, and into Northern England and Scotland. Of about 45 known early Bronze branches or subclades of L21, almost all are found in Britain or in the English-speaking Diaspora. We are able to identify most of the larger subclades of L21 as ‘Atlantic’—spread throughout the Atlantic Beaker range with a distinct presence in Cornwall-Devon in the early Bronze. Continental R-L21 has origins in small random samples from the extensive English distribution. While many studies have tried to identify continental contributions to Isles populations, here we suggest that the reverse was much greater, at least in the early Bronze Age.
The global distribution of L21 subclades is almost exactly Pareto, showing an entirely random expansion from an initial point of time, however that point is much later than the early Bronze. Around 100 BC a second major R-L21 expansion from a severe bottleneck was initiated in Ireland and Scotland, when a dozen residual ‘deep’ sub-branches sprang to life and came to dominate L21. This is consistent with a collapse in the effective population of Ireland, followed by a rapid expansion. The limited evidence suggests that a severe weather event, famine and/or epidemic occurred around this time. The strongly patrilineal nature of insular Celtic society helped to keep male lines culturally intact, so that these emergent deep subclades can still be identified with Irish clans to some extent.
Around 90 per cent of R-L21 individuals in Scandinavia have paternal-line relatives in Ireland and Scotland dating to Viking times. The distribution is random and involves small numbers and distinct lines, suggesting that some of these were taken to Scandinavia as prisoners and slaves.
The Great Migration of millions of people from Ireland and Scotland to North America in relatively modern times was so substantial that no founder effects can be discerned and the New World has acted as a growth matrix extending and preserving the pre-existing R-L21 distribution.
This paper introduces several ‘skyline’ methods to trace the development over time of the subclade distribution of L21. These show that the distribution in England has not changed a great deal since the Bronze Age, in stark contrast to the situation in Ireland and Scotland. England and the Continent now make a much smaller contribution to R-L21 than in the past, probably stemming from Roman and Germanic expansion that pushed L21-bearing populations westward.
First story in a 300 page book of reminiscences I wrote in 2015, mostly covering the years 1980-82.
It was given at the Genealogical Society of Victoria on 14 March 2018
https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/cornwalladvancedydna/about
https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/cornwall/about/background
I've included it because it gives a pretty fair overview of what I and the organisation I work for stand for.
If property can be sold after 20 years then prospects for capital gains tend to dominate. If not, it is difficult to come out ahead if any category of expenditure is expected to rise in real terms. Gearing can actually act as a hedge against rising property costs.
The model can also be used to compare individual projects or for specific classes of tenant
The model cuts to the heart of the business model of CHOs, showing that operating without subsidy is very difficult.
What it does is show from first principles how housing prices can go up faster than incomes - which would normally be regarded as impossible - and when they do, how housing then naturally falls into the hands of the Haves at the expense of the Have Nots. Something as simple as inelastic supply can lead markets to deliver suboptimal social outcomes. Which - they just keep on doing.
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This book is 20 years old, but still contains much important material. It was my major undertaking after working in and with UN-Habitat for ten years.
Many people contributed to the book and I edited the submissions into a consistent style and narrative.
My main direct contribution was the material about inequality in Chapters 2, 3 and 4,. It was very controversial and full credit is due to UN-Habitat for slipping the yoke of WB/IMF and publishing it. I was also responsible for the material about cultural innovations emerging from "vibrant mixed urban communities'.
The process of development of the report was heavily contested, due to UN-Habitat's desire to use it for advocacy, while the authors were more concerned with accuracy and clarity.
First, researchers thought that 'slum' was not a viable concept for statistical purposes, and could not be defined, but UN-Habitat wanted it.
Next they they wanted a billion slum dwellers. I considered that from the definitions laid down by the Expert Group there were 'only' half a billion.
This was not good enough. So UN-Habitat wrote the first chapter with a billion slum dwellers. This was the main factoid publicising the report
World Bank were not happy and commissioned an audit. It emerged that a billion was the number of people who did not have adequate sanitation, which included very many in China not living in "slums".
Despite these disputes, the report stands as the flagship introduction to informal settlements "slums" globally.