Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie

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Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

19 DEC

The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua Morrison

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/ - Sponsors: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: 1Day Sooner: https://www.1daysooner.org/Patrick’s Complex Systems interview with Ross Rheingans-Yoo: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick's Complex Systems interview with Dave Kasten about building VaccinateCA https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=VsSJMkktQiSGxtn9bFoOWATakeda's licensing deal with Moderna: https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2021/takeda-announces-approval-of-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-in-japan/Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @joshcmorrison @patio11 –Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:56) The role of challenge studies in vaccine development (09:24) Understanding vaccine platforms (18:33) Sponsor: Check (19:46) Regulatory system insights and future improvements (20:41) Lessons for our regulatory system (29:55) First doses first debate (37:35) The surprising nature of COVID-19 (39:30) Vaccine hesitancy and public communication (42:08) Political influence on vaccine distribution (58:28) Indoor air quality and disease prevention (01:06:52) Future of public health initiatives (01:12:27) Wrap

1h 13m
12 DEC

How we tax property, with Lars Doucet

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/ –Sponsors: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Lars’ book: https://www.landisabigdeal.com/ Lars’ blog: https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter @larsiusprime @patio11 –Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:23) How property taxes work (Texas Example)(02:45) The political art of avoiding tax rate blame(05:53) Sources of real estate data(08:08) Historical property assessment(11:04) Statutory guidance vs. Actual practice on market value assessment(14:25) Tax rate strategy and sandbagging(15:17) Assessed value vs market value(16:16) Assessment caps and Prop 13 (18:22) Sponsor: GiveWell | Check(20:27) Data collection in the field(22:54) Data collection methods(25:08) Property valuation: Beyond location and correlative factors(26:52) Depreciation of buildings(27:37) Orthodox view of depreciation(30:53) Real estate cultural differences(33:59) Urban redevelopment and land value(36:59) Small business realities and perceptions(46:19) Property tax protests(50:45) Predictive protests(52:19) Accuracy vs equity testing(58:50) Cook county assessor's office(1:01:11) Lars's background(1:05:38) What is GIS?(1:09:52) Wrap

1h 10m
5 DEC

Fraud levels are a policy choice

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing business. Reducing fraud to zero would require such restrictive verification that it would severely hamper legitimate commerce and social programs. Using examples from credit card processing to PPP loans, Patrick illustrates how different industries calibrate their tolerance for fraud based on their margins, mission, and societal role. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fraud-choice-patrick-mckenzie – Sponsor: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Bits about Money, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/optimal-amount-of-fraud/Bits about Money, "The fraud supply chain" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/the-fraud-supply-chain/ Dan Davies on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9?si=AWkgvWEBSymrQNqpehg5tQ– Twitter:@patio11 -Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:32) Origins of the essay and Dan Davies' influence(02:16) Fraud is a policy choice(04:56) The unique nature of fraud enforcement (07:54) Who pays for payment fraud?(12:55) Fraud as a necessary business expense(21:13) Sponsors: GiveWell & Check(27:43) Credit reports(29:19) Anti fraud loops used in online commerce(35:38) Different business tolerances for fraud(37:20) High vs low margin fraud strategies(41:40) Fraud in Benefit Systems and Pandemic Programs(43:29) Taxes(45:38) Fraud as an intended component(51:55) Wrap

50 min
21 NOV

AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/ – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Max's website: https://maxchiswick.com/Max's startup for AI and Game Strategy: https://overbet.ai/The Expected Value Foundation & poker camp course: https://expectedvalue.org/Patrick's Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/– Twitter:@chisness@patio11 -Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:26) Max's background and journey into poker (03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent (06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making (07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space (09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning (10:59) Online poker history (16:14) Understanding multitabling (21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation (22:55) Sponsor: Check (26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives (29:47) Playing a million hands in a month (37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization (43:35) Poker complexity (45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker (45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees (49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education (50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots (53:05) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

56 min
14 NOV

Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/ – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boomThe Diff https://diff.substack.comCapital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg – Twitter:@byrnehobart@patio11 -Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation(01:08) Economic growth and productivity(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D(07:31) The role of government and private sector(13:42) Sponsor: Check(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis(32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath(44:06) The housing bubble(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments(01:00:22) Crypto(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models(01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’(01:42:57) Wrap

1h 44m
7 NOV

How money moves, with Erik Torenberg

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance. – Full transcript available here: https://complexsystemspodcast.com/money-movement-erik-torenberg – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Bits about Money - Bank Transfers https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/bank-transfers-as-a-payment-method/Bits about Money - Stablecoins https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/stablecoin-mechanisms-and-use-cases/ – Twitter:@patio11 @eriktorenberg -Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:49) What is money? (02:39) How money moves (06:00) Banking and correspondent accounts (07:59) Clearing houses and payment systems (12:09) The gold standard and fractional reserve banking (18:15) Introduction to stablecoins (19:38) Sponsor: Check (21:31) Stablecoin models and issues (27:30) Crypto skepticism and innovations (30:53) Regulatory arbitrage and future of money (36:36) Wrap

38 min
31 OCT

From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/ – Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check Manifold is my favorite prediction market platform, making it easy to bet on anything from elections to crypto drama. Get started with a bonus at https://manifold.markets/complexsystems when you spend $20. Play money markets open to anyone; cash prizes only available to U.S. residents of at least 18 years of age. Terms and conditions apply. Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Ross' newsletter: https://essays.soletta.vc Ross' blog post on drug development costs: https://blog.rossry.net/100x/Ross' blog post on lessons from thalidomide https://blog.rossry.net/thalidomide/ – Twitter:@patio11@_rossry –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (02:28) Ross’ career transition to drug development (03:12) The drug development process (06:22) Clinical trials and FDA approval (11:48) Challenges in clinical trials (14:50) Case study: COVID-19 trials (18:00) Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check (19:55) Pharmaceutical economics (38:13) Rare diseases and regulatory strategies (45:18) Advanced market commitments explained (45:54) Operation warp speed and its impact (47:45) How to get accelerated approvals (52:49) The thalidomide tragedy and its legacy (01:03:17) Modern regulatory challenges and patient advocacy (01:07:14) Reviving abandoned drugs (01:12:06) Innovative approaches to drug trials (01:24:26) The future of pharmaceutical development (01:26:34) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

1h 28m
24 OCT

Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defrauding-government-jetson-leder-luis – Sponsors: Check | WorkOS Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network – Links: Jetson's website: https://sites.bu.edu/jetson/ Paper: Ambulance Taxis by Jetson Leder-Luis Ambulance Taxis: The Impact of Regulation and Litigation on Health Care Fraud Paper: Did FinTech Lenders Facilitate PPP Fraud by John M Griffin, Samuel Kruger, Prateek Mahajan https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906395Paper: Is Fraud Contagious by John M Griffin https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4599654Paper: Unemployment Insurance Fraud in the Debit Card Market by Jetson Leder-Luis with Umang Khetan, Yunrong Zhou and Jialan Wang https://www.nber.org/papers/w32527 Book: Recoding America by Jennifer Pahlka https://www.amazon.com/Recoding-America-Government-Failing-Digital-ebook/dp/B0B8644ZGYPodcast: Jennifer Pahlka on Ezra Kleinhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/2VPErCIG1pbcnYFBojrKcG Podcast: Dave Guarino on Odd Lots https://open.spotify.com/episode/43HI3NuxZGsl13U365xZxa Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/Related Complex Systems episodes: Dan Davies and Dave Guarino's episodes– Twitter:@patio11 @jetson_econ –Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:04) Overview of Medicare/Medicaid (02:41) Estimated $50-100B fraud losses (03:31) Taxonomy of healthcare fraud (08:04) Hospice fraud; potentially saved money (16:33) A $10 billion asterisk: ambulances for dialysis patients (21:30) Sponsors: Work OS | Check (24:45) Complexities of fraud detection and prevention (39:02) Pandemic fraud (41:34) Findings on PPP loans fraud (48:19) Supply chain of fraud (52:06) Policy and enforcement challenges (01:08:32) Whistleblower programs (01:14:54) Final thoughts – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

1h 19m

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

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