"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

Turpentine
"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable conversations. Upstream is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co

  1. 19 DEC

    AI Meets Geopolitics w/ Samo Burja and Nathan Labenz

    Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode which originally aired on The Cognitive Revolution, a podcast from the Turpentine Network. Samo Burja and Nathan Labenz discuss AI's impact on geopolitics, scientific progress, and economic strategies, emphasizing the importance of AI science, the risks of weaponizing AI, and the future of industrial and energy policies in the U.S. and China. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️‪The Cognitive Revolution The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz interviews the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431  🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja — SPONSORS: 🤲🏼 GiveWell is dedicated to finding outstanding giving opportunities and publishing the full details of their analysis to help donors decide where to give. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.) 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: The Cognitive Revolution Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/  — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: The impact of AI on geopolitics and scientific progress represents a significant area of strategic analysis. AI development serves as a test of people's worldviews and assumptions, revealing underlying beliefs about technology and intelligence. While there has been real scientific progress in AI, recent years have primarily involved applying theoretical insights from the early 2000s rather than creating fundamentally new breakthroughs. Scaling laws for AI have proven less reliable than initially thought, with unexpected developments like improved compute efficiency emerging. Companies with the best AI scientists, rather than just the most compute power, are likely to make the most significant breakthroughs. Universities have experienced a "strip-mining" of top AI talent by industry, fundamentally affecting the academic system. ChatGPT's viral success may have actually slowed theoretical progress by shifting focus from research to products. The chip ban on China came too late and effectively serves as a subsidy for Chinese chip manufacturers to develop their own technology. The US needs to focus on industrial policy, particularly in semiconductors and energy production, potentially creating a new "Silicon Valley" with special economic zones. The US-China relationship should be treated as an economic competition rather than a military/security conflict. India is likely to emerge as a significant player in AI, while Europe's prospects appear less promising following Macron's departure. Concerns about weaponized AI suggest the importance of peaceful technological development over military applications. The Leopold Plan (keeping China down while the US develops decisive AI advantage) appears unrealistic and potentially harmful. Current generative AI technology remains insufficient for sophisticated analytical work.

    1h 23m

  2. 15 DEC

    Byrne Hobart on What The First AI Agents Will Do + China, Google Analysis

    This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of AI agents in tech support, economic impacts of passive investing, historical financial strategies of Warren Buffett, and the implications of tariffs and technological developments in national wealth. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.) 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co  — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: AI is most effectively being deployed first in customer service where outcomes can be clearly measured and tracked. Return on Equity (ROE) has become less relevant in modern markets where companies can easily raise capital and buy back shares. Google has evolved from being criticized for sitting on cash to making aggressive investments in innovation, as demonstrated by Waymo. Tariffs function as a transfer mechanism from consumers to workers, potentially helping build strategic industries despite some economic inefficiency. While passive investing continues to grow, there will always be a cyclical role for active trading to enable price discovery and market making. Meme coins and app-based stock trading represent newer forms of gambling that might be more socially beneficial than traditional sports betting. A new book reveals Buffett's early investment strategy combined detailed research methods with an evolution from pure value investing to investing in quality companies.

    1h 5m

  3. 12 DEC

    America’s Culture of Winning w/ Alex Karp and Jacob Helberg

    Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, and Jacob Helberg, discuss AI-enabled warfare, the importance of taking clear ethical stances, the evolution of Silicon Valley culture, and the integration of tech innovation into governmental defense systems at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, DC. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.) 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — X / TWITTER: @PalantirTech @jacobhelberg @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Alex Karp describes Silicon Valley 1.0 as having built useful things with government while aligning with American values. He characterizes Silicon Valley 2.0 as creating division with wealth concentrated among few people. Alex Karp notes a current emergence of "tech patriots" in venture capital and defense technology sectors. Palantir was the first major company to take action after recent conflicts, with Alex Karp being the first CEO to travel to Ukraine after the war began. The company maintained its stance supporting Israel's right to defend itself after October 7th and held its board meeting in Israel after the attacks. Palantir took on Project Maven after Google dropped it, facing daily protests in Silicon Valley but maintaining its position. Alex Karp views AI development as an arms race and notes that the U.S. has no Chinese, Iranian, or Russian competitors in this space. He emphasizes the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of AI systems in U.S. government operations. American tech companies dominate globally, representing 86% of the top 50 tech companies' market capitalization. Palantir demonstrated its success with a 70% growth rate despite what Karp describes as a "nascent and terrible sales force." Alex Karp attributes American tech success to Calvinist cultural influences that view success positively. He highlights America's unique combination of high transparency and meritocracy in business operations. The American system allows companies to self-define their culture within legal boundaries, unlike in many other countries. He emphasizes how Silicon Valley uniquely tolerates different personalities as long as they deliver results. He criticizes recent pro-Hamas protests at elite universities as contradicting their stated values of anti-discrimination. Karp concludes by calling for more people to speak out against these movements both inside and outside their companies.

    33 min

  4. 7 DEC

    Wokeism & Class w/ David Sacks, Trump’s AI Czar [Upstream Archive]

    In this 2023 conversation between Erik Torenberg and David Sacks, they discuss David’s new role as Donald Trump's AI and crypto czar, the shift towards censorship and wokeness in Silicon Valley, particularly at companies like PayPal and Twitter, and the broader implications for free speech, public debate, and the future of liberalism. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e55b5666-67b9-4c2a-8968-943cee9f0466  — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — X / TWITTER: @davidsacks @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Discussion of PayPal's evolution and tech industry changes (01:08) Early days of PayPal and free speech values (02:28) The role of ADL and SPLC in tech censorship (03:39) Changes in Silicon Valley's political culture (06:39) Government collusion with tech companies (08:45) Evolution of Silicon Valley's political landscape (13:54) Discussion of institutional capture (17:20) Analysis of democratic capitalism's evolution (22:34) Sponsors: Incogni | Squad (24:20) Discussion of tech monopolies and regulation (28:09) Analysis of section 230 and tech regulation (32:55) Foreign policy evolution and interventionism (37:18) Discussion of institutional reform (42:37) Analysis of tech company management (46:28) Elon Musk's Twitter reforms (50:28) Future of tech industry and political polarization (54:40) Discussion of counter-elite formation (58:50) Solutions for institutional accountability (01:15:48) Wrap-up and closing remarks

    1h 19m

  5. 3 DEC

    Marc Andreessen: How 2016 Broke My Mental Model of the World

    Following Marc’s great discussion with Joe Rogan, we wanted to share our interview with Marc Andreessen, who recounts his intellectual evolution and his quest to discover how the world works from 2016 onwards. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/09f4b7dc-5fa8-4e0e-a2aa-87344c3db84b  — 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — X / Twitter: @pmarca @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:44) Mark's mental model shaken in 2015 (01:55) Historical context and media influence (03:05) Trump's impact and political shifts (04:05) Mark's reading journey to understand politics (05:20) Intellectuals vs. mass movements (06:28) The role of ideas in political change (07:41) Hoffer's theory on mass movements (10:07) Understanding left and right ideologies (10:35) Historical evolution of political ideologies (12:51) Sponsors: Incogni | Squad (15:46) Good intentions and unintended consequences (18:06) Nietzsche's master and slave morality (21:16) Balancing merit and fairness in society (28:37) Historical cycles and economic explanations (32:52) The pendulum of societal change (34:13) Introduction to Burnham's theories (35:03) The managerial revolution (39:19) The principal-agent problem (47:29) Elon Musk and bourgeois capitalism (55:10) The Machiavellians and political power (58:56) Aristocratic and oligarchic rule (59:55) The rise of tech founders (01:00:14) Joining the elite circle (01:01:28) The social and political network (01:02:44) Circulation of elites (01:06:51) Effective altruism and philanthropy (01:13:39) Meritocracy and elite education (01:25:31) Global governance and nationalism (01:27:39) The process of finding answers (01:28:30) The moral imperative of imposing answers (01:28:56) Communism and the intellectual foundation (01:29:30) The oligarchic elite and COVID-19 (01:30:34) The virtues of nationalism (01:35:54) The iron law of oligarchy (01:39:45) The need for a superior elite (01:41:58) The role of competence and unifying ideas (01:49:57) The internet and the current elite (01:50:50) The bill comes due (01:52:40) Wrap

    1h 55m

  6. 30 NOV

    This Era’s Inflection Points with Byrne Hobart | DOGE, Elon, OpenAI

    This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart discusses the potential impacts of the Department of Government Efficiency, insights from leaked OpenAI emails, Trump's and Elon Musk's policies and their economic implications, and the future of prediction markets in organizational decision-making. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/279fae71-9087-46b7-a2e6-b6e17d8fdf6b — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co  — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia

    1h 4m

  7. 28 NOV

    Solving America’s Problems with Joe Lonsdale

    This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a conversation between Erik Torenberg and Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir and founder of the Cicero Institute, discusses his solutions for American healthcare, education, crime, homelessness, and inequality, emphasizing the need for accountability and nonpartisan approaches. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/f6eb1f43-6fe9-43cc-a95f-168655056447  — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Cicero Institute: https://ciceroinstitute.org/  8VC: https://www.8vc.com/  Palantir: https://www.palantir.com/  Joe Lonsdale's blog: https://blog.joelonsdale.com  — X / TWITTER: @JTLonsdale @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia

    1 hr

  8. 23 NOV

    Combining Biology and AI w/ Michael Levin and Dr. Leo Pio Lopez

    This week we’re releasing an episode from the Cognitive Revolution, Nathan Labenz interviews Professor Michael Levin and Dr. Leo Pio Lopez about their groundbreaking research integrating multiple biological datasets using advanced AI techniques to predict new disease links, and discusses broader implications for AI in biology and future technologies. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/47dd68fb-1bea-43c0-809e-6a1a32c9cb48 — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️The Cognitive Revolution Podcast The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431   🎙️Unpack Pricing Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg  — SPONSORS: 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream  🎙️Dealcraft | Insights from Great Negotiators https://link.chtbl.com/3CG3TbHY?sid=Turpentine is the brand new weekly podcast that features interviews with world’s greatest dealmakers and diplomats, including Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, and music industry super-lawyer John Branca, on their most challenging negotiations. Each episode, host Jim Sebenius (Harvard Business School professor and renowned negotiation expert) relates fascinating deal stories and distills useful insights for listeners to apply in their toughest deals and disputes. 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod  💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Prof. Levin's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYyGG9xXpPA&t=0s Universal Multilayer Network Embedding Reveals a Causal Link Between GABA Neurotransmitter and Cancer: https://osf.io/preprints/osf/d78wb  Collective intelligence: A unifying concept for integrating biology across scales and substrates: https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-024-06037-4.pdf  — X / TWITTER: @drmichaellevin @LPiolopez @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia

    1h 16m
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable conversations. Upstream is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co

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