Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

Ambassador Piper Campbell is an excellent interlocutor for U.S.-ASEAN issues! I am also excited to see Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran, author of one of my favorite books, "Elusive Balances: Shaping U.S.-Southeast Asia Strategy," present on this important topic.

#ICYMI In this article, Amb. NOBUYASU ABE, former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs, argues that Japan's involvement in #AUKUS Pillar II would be beneficial, particularly for its defence technology development. However, joining the first pillar involving nuclear-powered submarines would face significant public resistance due to Japan's historical aversion to nuclear technology. As Japan seeks to enhance security cooperation with AUKUS, it must also balance these efforts with arms control, risk reduction, and crisis management to ensure regional stability. Read the full article here ➡️ https://lnkd.in/gWw_ihs6

Let's continue the debate - should New Zealand join AUKUS Pillar II? Reuben Steff Nicholas Ross Smith Anna Powles Anna Hood David Capie Hamish McDougall Lucy Stewart Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

In this week's The Korea Times column, Angela Woodward, Deputy Executive Director of the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), analyses what joining #AUKUS Pillar II would mean for New Zealand, arguing that more public discussion on its costs and benefits is needed before the government takes a stand. She points out that the political debate within New Zealand's foreign policy circles is vociferous and growing, but also divided, on the perceived benefits and risks of joining the arrangement. Supporters believe that joining AUKUS Pillar II would enhance New Zealand's capabilities in cyber defense, AI, and intelligence-sharing, ensuring it remains aligned with key allies like the US, UK, and Australia. Critics, however, express concerns over the potential loss of foreign policy independence, the impact on 🇳🇿-🇨🇳 relations, and the possibility of diverting attention and resources away from pressing regional issues like climate change. Read here: https://lnkd.in/gi5eDjfN

Upcoming event: Roles for the US and ASEAN in Promoting Regional Stability 📅 September 25, 11am-12pm EST/September 26, 12-1AM KST 🔗 Registration link: https://bit.ly/4dVUaJW We're hosting a webinar on how the US and #ASEAN can collaborate to strengthen stability in the Asia-Pacific amid ongoing regional tensions. Amb. Piper Campbell will share findings from her new APLN report on shifting dynamics in the region and what steps the US and ASEAN can take to foster peace and security. Click here to read the full report ➡️ https://bit.ly/4giuB7j She will be joined by ASEAN experts Elina Noor from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. The discussion will be moderated by APLN Senior Adviser Dr. Frank O'Donnell. Want to learn more about our project ▶️Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations◀️? Click here to explore related publications: https://lnkd.in/dZRuVkga

In this commentary, Jina Kim examines the recent update to the US Nuclear Employment Guidance, highlighting the shifting focus of US nuclear strategy to address coordinated threats from North Korea, China, and Russia, and explores the implications for South Korea's involvement in US deterrence strategies, particularly regarding nuclear-conventional integration and tailored extended deterrence. Click here to read the full article ➡️ https://lnkd.in/gvwNtAMU

What have APLN members been up to in the past two weeks? #MemberUpdate APLN Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi writes for The Indian Express on India’s nuclear doctrine and argues that it stands out as a beacon of nuclear stability. https://lnkd.in/djXxnWn5 Sang Hyun Lee was quoted in The Economist, where he commented on the debate over South Korea’s nuclear option, emphasising that the Korean Peninsula will inevitably become a much more dangerous place if South Korea goes nuclear. https://lnkd.in/dKrnPUbV Melissa Parke writes for The Economist in response to recent articles on “the new nuclear threats” that advocated for a larger US arsenal. She argues that increasing nuclear weapons heightens the risk of their use by accident, miscalculation, or mistake, and that Washington should instead engage in concerted diplomacy and immediate risk-reduction measures with other NWS. https://lnkd.in/dk5zZamq Jina Kim writes for The Diplomat and points out that South Korea has an opportunity to elevate its status as a NATO partner, but this might strain relations with China and provoke retaliatory actions from Russia. https://lnkd.in/dd4nhh-M Mely Caballero Anthony co-writes a commentary with Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano, highlighting that Southeast Asian countries interested in SMRs should take a proactive role in reviewing and reshaping nuclear governance. https://lnkd.in/dtPyGAk5 Prof. Chung-in Moon writes for The Hankyoreh on the scandal involving Sue Mi Terry’s indictment by US federal prosecutors. He stresses that while the US and South Korea are close allies, they each have distinct institutions & systems that must be respected. https://lnkd.in/dVSJCs8W Sadia Tasleem co-authored a paper with M V Ramana in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, arguing that the dominant anti-nuclear discourse in Pakistan inadvertently normalizes nuclear weapons. They suggest that a broader critique should address how nuclear weapons impact everyday social & political life. https://lnkd.in/dYi58vPn Dr. Rabia Akhtar was featured on Pakistan Now, where she discussed how Pakistan balances itself between the two great powers. https://lnkd.in/dDTK3uC4 Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan co-authored a piece for The Diplomat with Sameer Patil, PhD, Shravishtha Ajaykumar, and Prateek Tripathi on how India is stepping up its nuclear security priorities amid its renewed push for nuclear power. https://lnkd.in/d4Mt_FQH

As we observe the 15th year of the International Day Against Nuclear Tests, APLN asked eight experts whether new nuclear weapon tests remain an actual possibility in today's strategic environment. Read the Pulse here: https://lnkd.in/gyhDeAMf Francesca Giovannini argues that the costs of nuclear testing outweigh the benefits and that strategic dialogue among the P5 members of the UN Security Council remains indispensable for reducing the incentive for nuclear testing. Dmitry Stefanovich warns that if one country resumes nuclear testing, others will follow, with all the political blame falling on the first, while all the technological and possible military advantages are gained by everyone. NNWS will also react negatively to possible nuclear testing, widening the existing rift in international relations symbolised by the #TPNW. Manpreet Sethi emphasises that using nuclear testing as political messaging is a dangerous idea and suggests that the three major nuclear states (🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳) could coordinate their unilateral announcements or make a joint declaration to reduce nuclear risk. Sitara Noor recalls that in 2016, 🇵🇰 proposed converting unilateral moratoria into a bilateral non-testing agreement, but 🇮🇳 did not respond positively. While 🇵🇰 is unlikely to initiate new nuclear tests on its own, it might reconsider if 🇮🇳 decides to test again. Therefore, it is imperative to de-politicise the debate and strengthen the norm against nuclear tests. John Tilemann observes that observes that the Asia-Pacific has been the testing playground for all nuclear-armed countries (apart from Israel and South Africa), yet it is also the region leading efforts to end global nuclear weapon testing. He highlights the urgent need to develop new strategies to curb spiralling nuclear threats in the Asia-Pacific and beyond. Amb. Mitsuru Kitano stresses that Japan is legally committed not to possess or manufacture nuclear weapons. Thus, nuclear testing has no place in Japan. Japan wishes to see a world free of nuclear weapons, and firmly endorses the #CTBT. Sang Hyun Lee and Man-sung Yim assess that there is a high possibility of North Korea conducting another nuclear test. They point out the need to reinforce the nuclear taboo and call on existing NWS to fulfill their treaty obligations to reduce their nuclear arsenals.

In this week's APLN The Korea Times column, Professor Michiru Nishida of Nagasaki University explores the successes and challenges of the recent #NPT PrepCom, questioning whether the efforts and will of States Parties, amidst a challenging international geopolitical situation, can turn the glimmer of hope seen there into a beacon of hope at the 2026 RevCon. Read here ➡️ https://lnkd.in/g3Y3BqWt

This week, leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meet in Tonga for their annual summit, and to stake out the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. Fiji’s PM Sitiveni Rabuka has also outlined his vision for an “ocean of peace” to be declared in the region. https://lnkd.in/dRqSbt9Q #PIFLM53 In this APLN report, Sandra Tarte highlights Fiji’s role as a major player in the Pacific and argues that Fiji's Zone of Peace concept, advocated by PM Rabuka, is crucial in promoting peace & security amid the US-China rivalry. https://lnkd.in/gUSP_nx5 Tarte points out that Fiji should advocate for the zone of peace to be considered an integral part of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent and seek high-level endorsement from leaders and foreign ministers. “If the August 2024 PIF Summit considers and accepts this proposal by Fiji's Prime Minister, this could become part of the work underway within the PIFS to review the regional security structure.” In Fiji, such a review is already ongoing. Tarte has also been part of the group of advisors who have shaped Fiji's 2024 defence and security review, which is expected to include the zone of peace as a central concept, per the report's recommendations ⤵️ 🔹 Include the Zone of Peace in the Fiji Defence and Security Review of 2024 🔹 Integrate the Zone of Peace in the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent 🔹 Build Consensus on Principles Among Pacific Island Countries 🔹 The Development and Adoption, by the Pacific Islands Forum, of a Code of Conduct for a Pacific Zone of Peace However, Tarte also cautions that the excessive influence of the Fiji military over the country's foreign policy might de-emphasise demilitarisation of the region. Domestic disagreements over the approach to China could also prove challenging for Rabuka. Click here to learn more about the project: https://lnkd.in/dZRuVkga