Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

Did you miss our webinar "What do Asia-Pacific states want from the China-US relationship?" where I and Manpreet Sethi presented our new report on regional end-states? You can watch it here, moderated by the excellent Tanvi Kulkarni, PhD, with great perspectives from Melissa Conley Tyler, Zack Cooper and YU Tiejun. This report represents a major piece of work by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, as part of our Asia-Dialogue on China-US Relations. We explore preferences for various regional end-states (competitive bipolar, unipolar, or multipolar), and the webinar discussion particularly focused on the emerging multipolar structure of the region. ➡ Full transcript here: https://lnkd.in/gAVYm9xA

The recording and transcript of this webinar are available here: https://lnkd.in/gY_bzcni If you missed it, be sure to check out Piper Campbell's report here: https://lnkd.in/gbG8TdUM

What have APLN members been up to in the past two weeks? #MemberUpdate APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon was interviewed by The Diplomat on the implications of North Korean troops in #Russia and how the US presidential election may reshape the geopolitical landscape across Europe and Northeast Asia. https://lnkd.in/gMqSHjCd Kim Won-soo, former Under Secretary-General of the United Nations and the High Representative for Disarmament, argues in The Korea Times that US allies need to think about how to hedge the long-term risks arising from structural factors associated with a retreating America. https://lnkd.in/gHw6MEiT Elina Noor discussed Malaysia's "pulling sideways" policy, which allows it to engage both superpowers without full alignment – a strategy that reflects a broader Southeast Asian trend of asserting regional agency amid escalating great power competition. https://lnkd.in/gV5uDzas Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan co-wrote a commentary with Justin Bassi, arguing that China's aggressive behaviour in the Pacific undermines established international norms and that rationalizing China's expansionism as typical great power behaviour is dangerous. https://lnkd.in/g3YszQ7g Tong Zhao discussed China's evolving nuclear policy in a podcast with Jon Wolfsthal, addressing how the Chinese political leadership views the purpose of a large nuclear arsenal and the different threat perceptions between China and the US. https://lnkd.in/g2_BJbk2 In a webinar hosted by Asialink, Gary Quinlan and Dewi Fortuna Anwar discussed the outlook for Indonesia's international political, economic, and security relations under its new President. https://lnkd.in/gmAeYdNs Rakesh Sood writes for Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore and argues that a doctrinal shift toward no-first-use #NFU and the implementation of technical measures for de-alerting can go a long way in mitigating growing nuclear risks. https://lnkd.in/gHm2YkGn Natalie Sambhi writes for The Brookings Institution on US-#ASEAN relations, arguing that the US should respect Southeast Asian states' sovereignty and legitimate interests, rather than viewing the region solely as a site of geopolitical competition. https://lnkd.in/giPuJ47N Manpreet Sethi writes for Arms Control Association on the India-Pakistan-China nuclear dynamic in South Asia, examining what has changed from 1998 to the present. https://lnkd.in/gH9QwbZW If you are an APLN Member and your work is missing from this list, send us a direct message or email us at [email protected].

Last week, the United Nations General Assembly approved the establishment of an independent Scientific Panel to study the physical and societal consequences of nuclear war. With tensions rising globally, this initiative is more crucial than ever. International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) https://lnkd.in/e-9KE5tS At APLN, we have been working on a project that focuses on reducing the risk of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia through our three-year collaboration with Nagasaki University’s Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA) and Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability. Our Year 2 report, “Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia,” provides a detailed analysis of nuclear use cases involving the DPRK, US, China, and Russia, highlighting catastrophic humanitarian consequences. Nuclear weapons use results in unimaginable death and destruction, with six major impacts: 🔹 Thermal fluence 🔹 Firestorms 🔹 Blast overpressure 🔹 Prompt (or immediate) radiation exposure 🔹 Radiation exposure from fallout 🔹 Cancer deaths caused by biological radiation This report was prepared by primary authors David F. von Hippel and Eva Lisowski, with contributions from Peter Hayes, Shatabhisha Shetty, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Fumihiko Yoshida, Michiru Nishida, and Steve Freedkin. Read the executive summary here: https://lnkd.in/ghNBUMCU Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gJwCBjnB Click here to learn more about the project: https://lnkd.in/gR-n9fD9

It has been a pleasure working with APLN on this report — and great to discuss it, and the recently concluded East Asia Summit, with DAS Herrup at the US-ASEAN center. Great participation from colleagues & students from AU’s ASEAN and Indo-Pacific studies initiative.

With an election in the US, a new government in #Taiwan, and Chinese military exercises, will it be possible to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait? 🧵 In our latest report, Kristy Hsu explains how cross-strait relations are expected to evolve under the Lai Ching-Te administration, particularly in light of Taiwan’s changing political landscape following the 2024 presidential election. Although Lai is known for his pro-independence stance, the new three-party parliament and the lack of a majority government present opportunities to balance these views in favour of the popular support for the status quo. While China has reacted strongly to Lai’s election and sought to influence the outcome through various means, surveys show more Taiwanese favor maintaining the status quo over pursuing independence. This opinion reflects a desire for stability amidst rising US-China tensions. Taiwan’s trade partners, like #ASEAN/Japan/Europe, have voiced concerns about potential supply chain disruptions, considering Taiwan’s crucial role in #semiconductor manufacturing. While Taiwan’s "Silicon Shield" has been considered a deterrent, some argue it could also incentivize Chinese aggression. Kristy Hsu argues that, as supply chains shift and the security situation develops, the "Silicon Shield" may become irrelevant, and it will not protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack. Focus must instead lie on self-restraint & constructive dialogue to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait & maintain the status quo. The report makes several recommendations: 🔹 Resume cross-strait dialogues to avoid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait 🔹 Ensure correct understanding of Taiwanese support for the status quo and Lowest interests in independence & explore an innovative theory to replace the 1992 Consensus 🔹 Increase joint efforts to deter Chinese use of force & assist Taiwan’s meaningful international participation Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gmbKXgdX

On October 24, Ambassador Piper Campbell, author of the APLN project paper on US-ASEAN relations, held a fireside chat with US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Southeast Asia Drew Herrup, drawing upon the arguments in her report. This in-person event was coordinated by APLN Senior Research Adviser Frank O'Donnell as part of the first U.S. Department of State public readout and Q&A on the recent 2024 #ASEAN and East Asia Summits at the US-ASEAN Center in Washington DC. The report written by Ambassador Campbell can be accessed here: https://lnkd.in/gDuvZ7bU

NEW Asia-Pacific Leadership Network report, exploring the strong support for the status quo in Taiwan, and how the US, China, and regional states can take measures which recognize and bolster this Taiwanese position in international politics -

Talked with academics and researchers in different parts of the world on the key climate flashpoints, and threats to ocean health in the region at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network Asia-Pacific Roundtable on "Climate change and Environmental Security" earlier this month. Thankful for this opportunity!

How can we preserve the status quo in the Taiwan Strait? This week we released another report in our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations, written by Kristy Hsu. This series of papers has been one of my favorites to edit so far at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, because it displays a wide range of different approaches and perspectives to preserving regional stability in difficult times. This report argues that the Taiwanese people's will to sustain the status quo indefinitely, rather than unification or independence, should be the central focus for policymakers on all sides. https://lnkd.in/g8f_xZ9s