Glasgow has been warned that the cost of hosting the Commonwealth Games in 2026 could spiral out of control, even if the city strikes a deal to stage an “on the cheap” event.
Experts have told i that cost overruns are a common feature of international sports events, while saught-after economic boosts rarely emerge for host cities and nations.
Scotland’s biggest city is widely expected to step in to host the next Commonwealth Games after the Australian state of Victoria pulled out last year over concerns about massive cost increases.
There has been speculation that an announcement is imminent, but insiders have told i that no final agreement has yet been reached, as discussions between the Scottish authorities and games organisers continue.
Commonwealth Games Scotland (CGS) has proposed a slimmed down, scaled-back games in the city with a budget of only £130m to £150m – promising “no significant ask of public funds”.
Desperate to find a willing host, the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) has promised to contribute £100m. The rest of the bill is supposed to be met through tickets, sponsorship and broadcasting.
Officials in Glasgow have been persuaded that the funding from the Commonwealth Games body is an opportunity to showcase the city for next to nothing, and possibly even make some money for the cash-strapped council. CGS has forecast that the games can deliver somewhere between £100m to 200m in revenue.
Glasgow hosted a larger-scale games in 2014 at the cost of £576m. New stadiums were built, an athletes’ village was turned into affordable housing, and a spectacular opening ceremony at Hampden was remembered for its giant, dancing Tunnock’s teacakes.
There are hopes that Glasgow has all the facilities it needs for a far cheaper format this time. Instead of the 20 different sports seen at the games in Birmingham in 2022, organisers want to stage only 10 to 13 events in 2026.
However, Dr Johan Rewilak, an expert on sports economics at the University of South Carolina, warned that there was a growing body of academic work showing costs overruns and overly-optimistic estimates on economic benefits were common with “mega” sporting events.
“Glasgow might have to spend more than they think,” he told i. “They might have to expand or upgrade a few things, even if nothing brand new has to built. Security costs can tend to spiral up.
“Most of the academic literature finds that you don’t get an economic boost from hosting a sporting mega event.”
Dr Steve Georgakis, sports studies lecturer at the University of Sydney, said: “It’s naïve to think it’s not going to cost them any money. Commonwealth Games don’t tend to break even.”
Max Caller, lead commissioner of a crisis team at Birmingham City Council – which was effectively declared bankrupt last year – told i that the decision to host the 2022 Games had been a mistake.
“It was an amazing and successful event which brought much credit to the place. But was it the right thing to do? No. I wish they hadn’t done it.”
The Birmingham event cost £778m, with the council covering £184m and the UK Government covering the rest. According to UK Government figures, the 2022 games contributed £1.2bn to the UK economy.
But Mr Caller said the event was a “huge distraction” that sucked up all of the council’s attention when they should have been solely focused on the financial crisis ahead.
He warned: “The cost estimates for these events are always speculative and difficult to manage. The problem is that if you are going to make a success of these sorts of events, then the whole of the local authority needs to be totally focused on getting it right.”
Glasgow City Council will have to make major cuts to help fill the £107m black hole in its budget over the next three years. The local authority plans to axe 450 teaching posts and 150 health and social care jobs.
But Professor Gayle McPherson, director of the Research Centre for Culture, Sport and Events at University of West of Scotland, said the plan to hold a “more scaled-back and sustainable” games was realistic.
With the athletes’ village built in Glasgow’s east end for 2014 sold off as part of the regeneration “legacy”, a reduced number of competitors are expected to be housed in the city’s hotels and university accommodation.
“There’s no need for spectacular opening and closing ceremonies,” Prof McPherson told i. “The stadia are in place. The sports chosen will be based around what we have as a legacy from 2014.”
She added: “There’s no need for public funds to be used. It’s a model that could allow smaller nations to host in future.”
Susan Egelstaff, a former Scottish medal-winner in badminton, told i that she was “split” on the idea of Glasgow hosting in 2026.
“The games organisers desperately need someone to save it,” said the sports writer.
“My cynicism comes from the fact that if it can’t lead to any new accommodation, new facilities, new infrastructure, if there’s no legacy, then is it worth it?
“Either you keep the costs so low that you do it on the cheap and it’s not very good, or the cost will come in higher than they originally say to try to make certain parts of the event better.”
Dr Georgakis agreed. The academic warned that the “on-the-cheap model” could backfire.
He said: “The problem is that if you cheapen them too much, there’s no interest. The TV networks want the spectacle, the want the best athletes, they want all the events.”
He added: “There is an anti-Commonwealth Games feeling among participating countries around the world. It just doesn’t have the pull of the Olympics. So the small model may not really resonate with anyone. It could be the end of the Games.”
A spokesperson for Commonwealth Games Scotland said the organisation was continuing to engage in “constructive conversations” about its “innovative concept” for the 2026 games.
“It is important to recognise that our exciting and sustainable proposal is not reliant on public funding, with the budget based on the £100m of funding made available by the CGF. We will provide an update to stakeholders, athletes and fans as soon as possible.”