Papers by Raphael G . Bouchnik - Chen
The Western Powers Are Marching to the Houthis' Tune, 2024
It appears that the Western powers do not intend to exceed the parameters they have set for thems... more It appears that the Western powers do not intend to exceed the parameters they have set for themselves in terms of military activity against Houthi rebel strongholds. Alarmingly, the West would prefer to be enslaved to the formula according to which only treatment of root causes-i.e, the cessation of the war in Gaza-will result in the cessation of the Houthis' violent disruption of security in international shipping lanes. This serves the interests of the Houthis' state sponsor and terrorist enabler, Iran, and ensures the continuation of the Houthi threat to international shipping and to Israel.
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YouTube, 2024
This is a book review of my piece published in Hebrew, titled The Intelligence Failure in the Yom... more This is a book review of my piece published in Hebrew, titled The Intelligence Failure in the Yom Kippur War.
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Middle East Quarterly, 2018
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BESA, 2021
Hezbollah and its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, do not have the authority to independently unl... more Hezbollah and its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, do not have the authority to independently unleash their vast rocket/missile arsenal against Israel. That is because this arsenal is an integral part of the Iranian-Israeli balance of power, and is designed first and foremost to deter Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The beheading of schoolteacher Samuel Paty, which occurred two weeks after a m... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The beheading of schoolteacher Samuel Paty, which occurred two weeks after a momentous speech by President Emmanuel Macron in which he unveiled a plan to defend French secular values against "Islamist radicalism," marked the start of what might turn out to be an all-out war between France and the Islamic world, with Turkey's Erdoğan leading the Muslim charge. By taking a stand against Muslim extremist violence and suppression of freedom of speech, Macron might find himself facing a new wave of Islamic terror.
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BESA , 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Barack Obama believes he has not yet said his last word in American politics. ... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Barack Obama believes he has not yet said his last word in American politics. He may thus view Biden's victory as an opportunity to revitalize his progressive agenda, on both the domestic and foreign policy fronts. This could have major implications for the Middle East region. Joe Biden's nascent victory in the US presidential election was received with relief and hope by Israel's political center-left and with disappointment and trepidation on the political right. At this stage, there is a trend (at least in public) to present Biden as a true friend of Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu. In commenting on America's special relationship with Israel, analysts often recall warm encounters between Israeli statesmen and Biden in which he emphasized his commitment to Israel's security and the need to maintain its qualitative military advantage.
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A “Devil’s Advocate” Approach to the US Presidential Election, 2020
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Palestinian-Arab propaganda machine incessantly fuels aggressive anti-Isra... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Palestinian-Arab propaganda machine incessantly fuels aggressive anti-Israel campaigns. The PA's public diplomacy is based on manipulation: it takes advantage of the ignorance and superficial historical knowledge of the rest of the world about the Israeli-Arab conflict to implant an invented history. The Jewish State may have committed a historic misjudgment by selecting the name "Israel," as the choice has damaged the state's strategic interests. The never-ending Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of the world's most intractable and explosive disputes, causing heightened emotion and bloodshed in the Middle East and around the globe. In many cases, terrorist groups, including ISIS and al-Qaeda, have dedicated their spectacular terror attacks to the cause of Palestine and the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A recent study recounts the purportedly unknown story of Palestinian Arab volu... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A recent study recounts the purportedly unknown story of Palestinian Arab volunteers fighting the Nazis during WWII. Haaretz used this finding as an opportunity to mock PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pointed out that the Mufti of Jerusalem was a close ally of Hitler. Yet the Mufti's position as "the most important Arab Quisling" is indisputable, while most of the study's conclusions are dubious and inconsistent with historical facts.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The "Deal of the Century" suggests that a triangle of Israeli Arab communities... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The "Deal of the Century" suggests that a triangle of Israeli Arab communities that were disputed by Israel and Transjordan during the 1949 armistice negotiations can become part of the state of Palestine at such time as the state is established. This suggestion has raised the ire of Israeli Arabs and Jews who view it as an attempt at population "transfer", though no residents due to come under Palestinian jurisdiction will be required to leave their homes. It is also historically suspect, as it depends on a faulty reading of the history of the armistice negotiations.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Coronavirus has killed thousands in Iran and sickened more than 60,000. If the... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Coronavirus has killed thousands in Iran and sickened more than 60,000. If the virus is not contained, hundreds of thousands more Iranians risk infection and death. If skillfully handled, this crisis might present the Trump administration with a unique opportunity to reduce the Iranian nuclear threat. It's too early to say that the coronavirus pandemic is out of control, but several countries critically hit by the virus are desperately calling for help. While in the US and Europe full transparency is an indispensable tool in combatting the disease, countries in the Middle East are sticking to their traditionally opaque approach to crises in an effort to downplay the full scale of the emergency.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Trump administration's approach to the issue of peace in the Middle East d... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Trump administration's approach to the issue of peace in the Middle East differs from that of previous US administrations in that it is based on facts on the ground as they have evolved over time. The US peace team appears to have jettisoned both the historical "blame game" and the contradictory narratives of the Palestinians and the Israelis, which have combined to frustrate all prior peace initiatives.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The killing by the US of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani will not temper... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The killing by the US of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani will not temper Tehran's intention to continue its aggressive regional policy, either directly or through its proxy organizations. Israel would do well to continue the cautious policy that has characterized its surgical military strikes against Iran's entrenchment in Syria.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The diplomatic history of Israel as related by Dr. Walter Eytan, the first dir... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The diplomatic history of Israel as related by Dr. Walter Eytan, the first director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the founding father of the Israeli diplomatic service, provides an intimate insight into Israel's political and international struggle for survival. Sixty years after publication of Eytan's book, his vision and legacy remain valid and warrant renewed attention.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel's decisions a) to contain Hamas's continuous provocations rather than u... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel's decisions a) to contain Hamas's continuous provocations rather than use them as a casus belli and b) to refrain from an immediate military response to the discovery of Hezbollah tunnels into Israeli sovereign territory in the northern Galilee highlight the issue of deterrence as a core factor affecting the Israeli image in the region. Assuming the current Israeli modus operandi is the product of rational and thoughtful staff work, it can be inferred that deterrence is no longer either a decisive factor or even a strategic goal in the asymmetric conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The recent round of hostilities between Hamas and Israel (November 2018) highlighted the question of whether or not deterrence remains a core factor affecting Israeli security along the border with the Gaza Strip. Prevailing opinion among military commentators and the Israeli public alike suggests that Israel now has an image of eroding deterrence, perhaps even loss of deterrence. The fact that Israel couldn't stick to its commitment to provide full security to its citizens in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip and beyond, while Hamas was able to maintain a large arsenal of long-range rockets and launch almost 500 projectiles towards Israel within less than 48 hours, enabled the Islamist terror group to claim a victory. The term deterrence is frequently used by the security establishment to define the ultimate goal of large-scale military operations, mainly when referring to asymmetric wars. Whenever a military conflagration occurs (either with Hamas or Hezbollah), the Israeli security leadership has it in mind to restore Israeli deterrence or to consolidate it.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Seventy years ago, while the Arab-Israeli Lausanne peace talks were deadlocked... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Seventy years ago, while the Arab-Israeli Lausanne peace talks were deadlocked, a pioneering and creative diplomatic initiative was aired to deal with the fate of Gaza and its Palestinian Arab refugees. This US initiative was a serious effort to bring about a settlement between Egypt and Israel while contributing to a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem. Though it ended in failure, it provided valuable lessons. It is widely expected that one of the main issues to be addressed in Donald Trump's impending "Deal of the Century" is the split between the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. During the crafting of the Oslo Accords, too, attempts were made to find a way to implement the prospective Palestinian state with a terrestrial physical link enabling passage from Gaza to the West Bank. Israeli FM Shimon Peres was a principal contributor to those efforts. That idea is not, however, endorsed by Hamas, which has set its sights on a good deal more. The violent and provocative weekly riots along the Israeli border with the Strip, organized by Hamas, are being carried out under the slogan "March of Return," the standard Palestinian euphemism for Israel's demographic subversion. Though categorized as a terrorist organization, the group is winning this PR campaign against Israel. International sympathy for Hamas is growing in correspondence with the rise in the number of casualties at the border. Hamas recently escalated its belligerency against Israel through systematic, well-planned terror offensives using scores of incendiary balloons, increasing the risk of another round of hostilities. Egypt is acting as an indirect mediator between Israel and Hamas to avoid another descent into full-blown conflict. In view of these circumstances, it is useful to consider a pioneering diplomatic initiative regarding the fate of Gaza and its refugees that was aired 70 years ago,
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BESA Center for Strategic Studies, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A UNHRC report has found Myanmar's authorities responsible for "the gravest cr... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A UNHRC report has found Myanmar's authorities responsible for "the gravest crimes under international law" against the Rohingya Muslim minority-crimes that led to a massive exodus to Bangladesh. The report concludes that the army must be investigated for genocide against the Rohingya. This blunt condemnation of the Myanmar authorities does not correspond to solid intelligence data proving terror attacks by Rohingya's ARSA militants against government assets and the killing of military and police personnel, as well as Buddhist citizens. Several conclusions of the UNHRC Mission ought to be revisited.
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Middle East Quarterly, 2018
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Papers by Raphael G . Bouchnik - Chen