IA sensitively predict future T1D, but onset often occurs many years after seroconversion. Early ... more IA sensitively predict future T1D, but onset often occurs many years after seroconversion. Early diagnosis results in less DKA and milder initial disease, especially in young children. Using the international TEDDY cohort, we asked if quarterly HbA1c testing could predict T1D among pre-pubertal subjects with ≥1 persistent IA (GADA, IA2A, IAA). Mean(SD) age at seroconversion and T1D onset was 43(29) and 73(22) months respectively. Of 8,504 HLA high risk children, 456 had persistent confirmed IA, had undergone at least 3 quarterly HbA1c tests in the prior 12 months, and were not on diabetes drugs or diets. Of these, 104 progressed to T1D and 352 did not. Subjects were split into training (292 total, 62 progressors) and test (164 total, 40 progressors) datasets with similar characteristics. The optimal maximum HbA1c cutpoint within 1 year pre-onset to predict T1D, by ROC analysis, was similar in training and test datasets (p=0.66). For both, HbA1c ≥5.6% gave the best Youden index. Other factors significant for T1D risk in the training dataset included age at HbA1c test, month of HbA1c test, continent and IA2A titer, but not gender, family history, HLA type, seroconversion age, IAA titer nor T1D-related SNP genotypes. Adjusted for significant factors, the optimal HbA1c cutpoint of ≥5.6% for quarterly testing was 91% sensitive, 91% specific, 73% PPV and 98% NPV to predict T1D within 1 year in children with HLA and IA risk. The final predictive model fit both training and test data similarly (p=0.28). Median(SD) time from first HbA1c ≥5.6% to diagnosis was 8.6(4.5) months, enabling monitoring and education for earlier treatment. Quarterly HbA1c surveillance is cost-effective and clinically accessible. A hierarchical plan for pediatric T1D prediction is proposed comprising initial genetic screening, then IA surveillance of those at genetic risk, then HbA1c surveillance of those with IA, and finally close glycemic surveillance of those with HbA1c ≥5.6% to ascertain metabolic onset. Disclosure M. Killian: None. K. Vehik: None. R.R. Little: None. H. Elding Larsson: None. M.J. Haller: None. M. Rewers: None. J. She: None. J. Toppari: None. B. Akolkar: None. J. Krischer: None. W. Hagopian: None.
OBJECTIVE To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definit... more OBJECTIVE To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85–92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5–40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was signifi...
OBJECTIVE This study investigates two-phase growth patterns in early life and their association w... more OBJECTIVE This study investigates two-phase growth patterns in early life and their association with development of islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study followed 7,522 genetically high-risk children in Sweden, Finland, Germany, and the U.S. from birth for a median of 9.0 years (interquartile range 5.7–10.6) with available growth data. Of these, 761 (10.1%) children developed IA and 290 (3.9%) children were diagnosed with T1D. Bayesian two-phase piecewise linear mixed models with a random change point were used to estimate children’s individual growth trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effects of associated growth parameters on the risks of IA and progression to T1D. RESULTS A higher rate of weight gain in infancy was associated with increased IA risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.02, 1.17] per 1 kg/year). A height growth pattern with ...
Evidence is lacking regarding the consequences of antibiotic use in early life and the risk of ce... more Evidence is lacking regarding the consequences of antibiotic use in early life and the risk of certain autoimmune diseases. To test the association between early-life antibiotic use and islet or celiac disease (CD) autoimmunity in genetically at-risk children prospectively followed up for type 1 diabetes (T1D) or CD. HLA-genotyped newborns from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States were enrolled in the prospective birth cohort of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study between November 20, 2004, and July 8, 2010. The dates of analysis were November 20, 2004, to August 31, 2014. Individuals from the general population and those having a first-degree relative with T1D were enrolled if they had 1 of 9 HLA genotypes associated with a risk for T1D. Parental reports of the most common antibiotics (cephalosporins, penicillins, and macrolides) used between age 3 months and age 4 years were recorded prospectively. Islet autoimmunity and CD autoimmunity...
To explore whether children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during islet autoantibody surveillance... more To explore whether children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during islet autoantibody surveillance through The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study retain greater islet function than children diagnosed through the community. TEDDY children identified at birth with high-risk human leukocyte antigen and followed every 3 months until diabetes diagnosis were compared to age-matched children diagnosed with diabetes in the community. Both participated in long-term follow up after diagnosis. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and mixed meal tolerance test were performed within 1 month of diabetes onset, then at 3, 6, and 12 months, and biannually thereafter. Comparison of 43 TEDDY and 43 paired control children showed that TEDDY children often had no symptoms (58%) at diagnosis and none had diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) compared with 98% with diabetes symptoms and 14% DKA in the controls (P < 0.001 and P = 0.03, respectively). At diagnosis, mean HbA1c was lower in TEDDY (6...
Increased growth in early childhood has been suggested to increase the risk of type 1 diabetes. T... more Increased growth in early childhood has been suggested to increase the risk of type 1 diabetes. This study explored the relationship between weight, height and development of persistent islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes during the first 4 years of life in 7,468 children at genetic risk of type 1 diabetes, followed in Finland, Germany, Sweden and US. Growth data collected every third month were used to estimate individual growth curves using mixed models. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the body size and risk of islet autoimmunity and T1D. In the overall cohort, development of islet autoimmunity (n=575) was related to weight z-scores at 12 months, (HR 1.16 per 1.14 kg in males or per 1.02 kg in females; 95%CI 1.06-1.27, p<0.001, FDR=0.008), but not at 24 or 36 months. A similar relationship was seen between weight z-scores and development of multiple islet autoantibodies (1 year, HR 1.21 95%CI 1.08-1.35, p=0.001, FDR=0.008; 2 years, HR 1.1...
Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering i... more Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) follows children with increased HLA-related genetic risk for future T1D. TEDDY asks parents to prospectively record the child's infections using a diary book. The present paper shows how these large amounts of partially structured data were reduced into quantitative data-sets and further categorized into system-specific infectious disease episodes. The numbers and frequencies of acute infections and infectious episodes are shown. Study subjects (n = 3463) included children who had attended study visits every three months from age 3 months to 4 years, without missing two or more consecutive visits during the follow-up. Parents recorded illnesses prospectively in a TEDDY Book at home. The data were entered into the study database during study visits using ICD-10 c...
Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or ... more Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or an accelerator to clinical onset after seroconversion. As overweight and obesity continue to rise among children, the aim of this study was to determine whether human leukocyte antigen DQ (HLA-DQ) genotypes may be related to body size among children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes. Repeated measures of weight and height were collected from 5969 children 2-4 years of age enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young prospective study. Overweight and obesity was determined by the International Obesity Task Force cutoff values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) of 25 and 30 kg m(-)(2) at age 18. The average BMI was comparable across specific HLA genotypes at every age point. The proportion of overweight was not different by HL A, but percent obesity varied by age with a decreasing trend among DQ2/8 carriers (P for trend=0.0315). A multivariable regression...
Background: Participants’ study satisfaction is important for both study compliance and retention... more Background: Participants’ study satisfaction is important for both study compliance and retention, but research on parental study satisfaction is rare. The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with parent study satisfaction in a longitudinal, multinational study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes, with a particular focus on the role of staff consistency.Methods: Mother and father study satisfaction was measured at child-age 15 months (5579 mothers and 4942 fathers) and child-age four years (4010 mothers and 3411 fathers). Multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with study satisfaction at both time points.Results: Parent study satisfaction was highest in Sweden and the US compared to Finland. Parents with low education who had an accurate perception of their child’s type 1 diabetes risk and who believed they can do something to prevent type 1 diabetes were more satisfied with their study participation. Parents with higher depre...
OBJECTIVE Young children have an unacceptably high prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at t... more OBJECTIVE Young children have an unacceptably high prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at the clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to determine whether knowledge of genetic risk and close follow-up for development of islet autoantibodies through participation in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study results in lower prevalence of DKA at diabetes onset in children aged <2 and <5 years compared with population-based incidence studies and registries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Symptoms and laboratory data collected on TEDDY participants diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between 2004 and 2010 were compared with data collected during the similar periods from studies and registries in all TEDDY-participating countries (U.S., SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study; Sweden, Swediabkids; Finland, Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register; and Germany, Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumenation [DPV] Register). RESULTS A total of 40 chi...
IA sensitively predict future T1D, but onset often occurs many years after seroconversion. Early ... more IA sensitively predict future T1D, but onset often occurs many years after seroconversion. Early diagnosis results in less DKA and milder initial disease, especially in young children. Using the international TEDDY cohort, we asked if quarterly HbA1c testing could predict T1D among pre-pubertal subjects with ≥1 persistent IA (GADA, IA2A, IAA). Mean(SD) age at seroconversion and T1D onset was 43(29) and 73(22) months respectively. Of 8,504 HLA high risk children, 456 had persistent confirmed IA, had undergone at least 3 quarterly HbA1c tests in the prior 12 months, and were not on diabetes drugs or diets. Of these, 104 progressed to T1D and 352 did not. Subjects were split into training (292 total, 62 progressors) and test (164 total, 40 progressors) datasets with similar characteristics. The optimal maximum HbA1c cutpoint within 1 year pre-onset to predict T1D, by ROC analysis, was similar in training and test datasets (p=0.66). For both, HbA1c ≥5.6% gave the best Youden index. Other factors significant for T1D risk in the training dataset included age at HbA1c test, month of HbA1c test, continent and IA2A titer, but not gender, family history, HLA type, seroconversion age, IAA titer nor T1D-related SNP genotypes. Adjusted for significant factors, the optimal HbA1c cutpoint of ≥5.6% for quarterly testing was 91% sensitive, 91% specific, 73% PPV and 98% NPV to predict T1D within 1 year in children with HLA and IA risk. The final predictive model fit both training and test data similarly (p=0.28). Median(SD) time from first HbA1c ≥5.6% to diagnosis was 8.6(4.5) months, enabling monitoring and education for earlier treatment. Quarterly HbA1c surveillance is cost-effective and clinically accessible. A hierarchical plan for pediatric T1D prediction is proposed comprising initial genetic screening, then IA surveillance of those at genetic risk, then HbA1c surveillance of those with IA, and finally close glycemic surveillance of those with HbA1c ≥5.6% to ascertain metabolic onset. Disclosure M. Killian: None. K. Vehik: None. R.R. Little: None. H. Elding Larsson: None. M.J. Haller: None. M. Rewers: None. J. She: None. J. Toppari: None. B. Akolkar: None. J. Krischer: None. W. Hagopian: None.
OBJECTIVE To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definit... more OBJECTIVE To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85–92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5–40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was signifi...
OBJECTIVE This study investigates two-phase growth patterns in early life and their association w... more OBJECTIVE This study investigates two-phase growth patterns in early life and their association with development of islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study followed 7,522 genetically high-risk children in Sweden, Finland, Germany, and the U.S. from birth for a median of 9.0 years (interquartile range 5.7–10.6) with available growth data. Of these, 761 (10.1%) children developed IA and 290 (3.9%) children were diagnosed with T1D. Bayesian two-phase piecewise linear mixed models with a random change point were used to estimate children’s individual growth trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effects of associated growth parameters on the risks of IA and progression to T1D. RESULTS A higher rate of weight gain in infancy was associated with increased IA risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.02, 1.17] per 1 kg/year). A height growth pattern with ...
Evidence is lacking regarding the consequences of antibiotic use in early life and the risk of ce... more Evidence is lacking regarding the consequences of antibiotic use in early life and the risk of certain autoimmune diseases. To test the association between early-life antibiotic use and islet or celiac disease (CD) autoimmunity in genetically at-risk children prospectively followed up for type 1 diabetes (T1D) or CD. HLA-genotyped newborns from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States were enrolled in the prospective birth cohort of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study between November 20, 2004, and July 8, 2010. The dates of analysis were November 20, 2004, to August 31, 2014. Individuals from the general population and those having a first-degree relative with T1D were enrolled if they had 1 of 9 HLA genotypes associated with a risk for T1D. Parental reports of the most common antibiotics (cephalosporins, penicillins, and macrolides) used between age 3 months and age 4 years were recorded prospectively. Islet autoimmunity and CD autoimmunity...
To explore whether children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during islet autoantibody surveillance... more To explore whether children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during islet autoantibody surveillance through The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study retain greater islet function than children diagnosed through the community. TEDDY children identified at birth with high-risk human leukocyte antigen and followed every 3 months until diabetes diagnosis were compared to age-matched children diagnosed with diabetes in the community. Both participated in long-term follow up after diagnosis. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and mixed meal tolerance test were performed within 1 month of diabetes onset, then at 3, 6, and 12 months, and biannually thereafter. Comparison of 43 TEDDY and 43 paired control children showed that TEDDY children often had no symptoms (58%) at diagnosis and none had diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) compared with 98% with diabetes symptoms and 14% DKA in the controls (P < 0.001 and P = 0.03, respectively). At diagnosis, mean HbA1c was lower in TEDDY (6...
Increased growth in early childhood has been suggested to increase the risk of type 1 diabetes. T... more Increased growth in early childhood has been suggested to increase the risk of type 1 diabetes. This study explored the relationship between weight, height and development of persistent islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes during the first 4 years of life in 7,468 children at genetic risk of type 1 diabetes, followed in Finland, Germany, Sweden and US. Growth data collected every third month were used to estimate individual growth curves using mixed models. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the body size and risk of islet autoimmunity and T1D. In the overall cohort, development of islet autoimmunity (n=575) was related to weight z-scores at 12 months, (HR 1.16 per 1.14 kg in males or per 1.02 kg in females; 95%CI 1.06-1.27, p<0.001, FDR=0.008), but not at 24 or 36 months. A similar relationship was seen between weight z-scores and development of multiple islet autoantibodies (1 year, HR 1.21 95%CI 1.08-1.35, p=0.001, FDR=0.008; 2 years, HR 1.1...
Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering i... more Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) follows children with increased HLA-related genetic risk for future T1D. TEDDY asks parents to prospectively record the child's infections using a diary book. The present paper shows how these large amounts of partially structured data were reduced into quantitative data-sets and further categorized into system-specific infectious disease episodes. The numbers and frequencies of acute infections and infectious episodes are shown. Study subjects (n = 3463) included children who had attended study visits every three months from age 3 months to 4 years, without missing two or more consecutive visits during the follow-up. Parents recorded illnesses prospectively in a TEDDY Book at home. The data were entered into the study database during study visits using ICD-10 c...
Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or ... more Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or an accelerator to clinical onset after seroconversion. As overweight and obesity continue to rise among children, the aim of this study was to determine whether human leukocyte antigen DQ (HLA-DQ) genotypes may be related to body size among children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes. Repeated measures of weight and height were collected from 5969 children 2-4 years of age enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young prospective study. Overweight and obesity was determined by the International Obesity Task Force cutoff values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) of 25 and 30 kg m(-)(2) at age 18. The average BMI was comparable across specific HLA genotypes at every age point. The proportion of overweight was not different by HL A, but percent obesity varied by age with a decreasing trend among DQ2/8 carriers (P for trend=0.0315). A multivariable regression...
Background: Participants’ study satisfaction is important for both study compliance and retention... more Background: Participants’ study satisfaction is important for both study compliance and retention, but research on parental study satisfaction is rare. The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with parent study satisfaction in a longitudinal, multinational study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes, with a particular focus on the role of staff consistency.Methods: Mother and father study satisfaction was measured at child-age 15 months (5579 mothers and 4942 fathers) and child-age four years (4010 mothers and 3411 fathers). Multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with study satisfaction at both time points.Results: Parent study satisfaction was highest in Sweden and the US compared to Finland. Parents with low education who had an accurate perception of their child’s type 1 diabetes risk and who believed they can do something to prevent type 1 diabetes were more satisfied with their study participation. Parents with higher depre...
OBJECTIVE Young children have an unacceptably high prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at t... more OBJECTIVE Young children have an unacceptably high prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at the clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to determine whether knowledge of genetic risk and close follow-up for development of islet autoantibodies through participation in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study results in lower prevalence of DKA at diabetes onset in children aged <2 and <5 years compared with population-based incidence studies and registries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Symptoms and laboratory data collected on TEDDY participants diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between 2004 and 2010 were compared with data collected during the similar periods from studies and registries in all TEDDY-participating countries (U.S., SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study; Sweden, Swediabkids; Finland, Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register; and Germany, Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumenation [DPV] Register). RESULTS A total of 40 chi...
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Papers by Helena Larsson