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History: Favorites won 25 consecutive NCAA tournament games

Given all the buzzer beaters and upsets of Thursday, we should have figured we were due for a snoozer on Friday. But who knew the second day of the 2015 tournament would be a snoozer of historic proportions: It was almost the first all-chalk day in NCAA tournament history.

In the first 15 games that went final on Friday, the favorites went 15-for-15. It took until the final matchup of the day, which actually ended well into Saturday morning, for No. 11 seed Dayton to score the first upset, defeating No. 6 seed Providence and ruining what would have been the only perfect day in the history of the opening round of the tournament.

The Providence loss also snapped a 25-game winning streak for Vegas favorites dating back to Thursday night, a run which is thought to be an all-time record.

(AP)

(AP)

Maybe it doesn’t sound that impressive — the teams are seeded this way because the favorites are expected to win. But seedings are imperfect and games such as No. 7 vs. No. 10 and No. 8 vs. No. 9 have historically been closer to even than chalk. Games with bigger seeding margins actually still have reasonable odds for the underdog too. The favorites in the 5/12 and 6/11 games had the same exact historical record entering this tournament (93-47).

So what are the odds of a perfect day such as Friday? Not as steep as you might think. The odds of a a coin-flip coming up heads 16 times in a row is 1 in 65,536. But an NCAA tournament game isn’t a coin-flip because a No. 1 seed beating a No. 16 seed isn’t a 50/50 proposition, it’s been a 100% certainty.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

So we went back and looked at the all-time records for favorites in opening games from 1985-2014. Buoyed by a 360-25 record for seeds Nos. 1-3, the all-time record for favorites is 778-270 or a winning percentage of 74.2. That means that instead of the 1-in-2 odds of a coin flip, the odds of a favorite winning is approximately 1-in-1.345.

Using those numbers, the rudimentary odds of 16 results coming up the same ends up being 1 in 114. (Note that this is a very basic interpretation of the odds based solely on previous results. You could look at the vig and money-lines to come up with the specific odds of these specific games going 16-for-16 and come up with a slightly different number). And though it’s not 1 in 65,536, don’t let 1 in 114 seem unimpressive. Those are steep, steep odds. It means we’d see a day like this once in every 57 years.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

The odds of the 24-game streak are obviously higher, calculating at 1 in 1,652. Odds are that you could play the first two days of the tournament for nine years and not have the favorites win 25 in a row.

So while Friday’s chalk wasn’t very exciting (except down the road when it will lead to better matchups), it made for some interesting history at the 2015 tournament. But enough is enough. Can we get back to the Madness, please?

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

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