Carmignac

"After two years of extraordinary growth, the luxury goods sector has found itself under pressure in recent months. Revenue has decelerated and is expected to flatline until the end of the year. And equity prices, after reaching all-time highs, have come down. This ‘normalisation’ has left some investors fearful, seeing them slide down the ‘slope of hope’. Optimism around a resurgent Chinese consumer has faded. So too has the hope for indefinite revenue growth at 3x GDP rather than the (still enviable) 2x GDP. Add to this, rising production costs, expensive digital transformations and flaring geopolitical tensions, and on the surface, it seems like a pretty eerie picture. The luxury sector has a reputation for cutting expenses at cycle lows and overspending at cycle highs. And here we are again. Sales have peaked for most luxury companies and margins are slowing everywhere. Further spooking investors is France’s decision to increase corporate tax to “find” €60 bn to fill a 6% deficit given this increases the widespread risk of missed earnings across the sector. Indeed, Barnier’s draft budget for 2025 introduces a “temporary” 5% to 10% increase in corporate tax for those largest groups. And as Milton Friedman said, “nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”… Our estimation is that such measures will shave 2% to 4% off the earnings per share of France-based luxury groups in 2025. Not to mention the potential adverse effects of an additional income tax (Exceptional Contribution of High Revenues – aka CEHR) on the wealth effect of those most inclined to buy luxury goods. The start of a global rate cutting cycle and recent policy actions in China should limit downside potential. For those investors willing, and able, to look beyond the ‘wall of worry’, 2025 is poised to be an appealing year for the sector driven by several tailwinds Firstly, Chinese offshore demand should be revived by the middle-class confidence boost resulting from the fiscal and equity market shot (China accounts for 25% of the sector demand). Secondly, the improved economic trajectory of the US and Europe And thirdly, the sector is blessed by the lack of elasticity of sales volume to price changes. In the absence of an economic ‘hard landing’, 2025 should see revenue move from “slowing to normalisation” to “growing towards normalisation”. Thus casting a much more positive spell on the sector." Kevin Thozet #Investment #Finance #Marketingcommunication #investinginyourinterest #Assetmanagement

Why did Carmignac decide to launch a so-called “evergreen” private equity fund? Read the interview of Edouard Boscher, head of private equity Carmignac in Paperjam: https://okt.to/MfHDbo #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #PrivateEquity #Investinginyourinterest

📢 The recent surge in equity market volatility reflects investor concern about the health of the US economy and the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. These fears have been exacerbated by technical factors (a lack of liquidity, extreme concentration of investor positioning) favouring extreme volatility. 🔍 What conclusions can we draw from this for the coming months? As far as equity markets are concerned, the results season did not reveal any significant change in company fundamentals compared with market expectations, which remain high. The slowdown in the US economy, the continued deceleration in inflation and the prospects of monetary easing by central banks should continue to provide a favourable environment for equity markets. However, this macroeconomic scenario has already been largely taken into account by the markets, so it is essential to actively manage the drivers of equity performance. We therefore remain cautious about the legitimacy of high valuation levels in relation to future growth potential. 💡 What investment strategy should be adopted in light of this volatility? In this context, we believe it is preferable to favour stocks offering high visibility and to reduce investments in the most popular stocks, which are more prone to the risk of disappointment, in favour of defensive stocks and segments. It is also important to diversify investments towards less emphasised companies and sectors, as market rises are currently concentrated in a small number of stocks. #assetmanagement #marketingcommunication #finance #investment #investinginyourinterest

Rising US unemployment, resurgent geopolitical tensions and overcrowded market trades have triggered a surge in volatility and a global sell-off of risky assets. A solution like Carmignac Sécurité has been prepared to navigate this kind of market turmoil thanks to a barbell strategy, balancing highly-rated and short-dated credit exposure with safe-haven assets and money-market instruments. Its active and flexible investment philosophy, time-tested over the past 35 years, is also a real plus in this uncertain environment. To know more : https://okt.to/TIau0L #Investment #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement #Finance

The voting season represents an opportunity for Carmignac to make our voice heard. During the 2024 voting season, we increased our support for shareholder-led resolutions, with 64% of them being supported. We cast a vote against management in 61% of the meetings we voted. In the interest of transparency, we share how we voted at the shareholder meetings of the companies in our portfolios, with a focus on the following key topics: • Executive pay • Technology advancements • Future of nutrition • Climate transition • Protection of minority shareholders’ interests • Empowerment of employees 🔎 Find out more about our 2024 voting activity: https://okt.to/3t1D5B #assetmanagement #marketingcommunication #finance #investment #investinginyourinterest

In his role, Christian Elliott will support the firm’s growth strategy, with a focus on the wholesale and institutional client segments in London and the Channel Islands. He reports to Gavin Ward, who joined the company in September 2023 as head of UK business development. Gavin Ward comments: “Christian is joining Carmignac at an exciting time in our UK development. We’ve recently celebrated the fifth anniversary of our UK OEIC range and implemented a new business development strategy focused primarily on wholesale and institutional investors. I am confident Christian’s wealth of experience across the UK distribution market will prove most valuable as we serve our growing client base. We’re delighted to have him on board.” To know more → https://okt.to/criPfW #Investment #finance #marketingcommunication #assetmanagement #investinginyourinterest

2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/Y2ZcOC #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/5vA6fL #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/38wHxS #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

📝 We are pleased to present our 2023 Stewardship Report introduced by a foreword from our Chairman and CIO, Edouard Carmignac. 🔎 The report provides details on how we integrate stewardship considerations into each stage of our investment process, which we believe are more important than ever before. 🌱 Specific topics discussed include how we are considering climate change, ESG in sovereign bonds and investment aligned to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals, amongst a range of other topics. #assetmanagement #marketingcommunication #finance #investment