067
FXUS64 KOUN 141046
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

- Frost possible across the north Wednesday morning.

    - Elevated fire weather conditions in some areas north and
      west each afternoon Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances late this week and this weekend, but timing
   uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Cooler temperatures are expected today areawide behind the front
that moved through yesterday. Highs today and lows Tuesday morning
will be near average for this time of year. There is some mid-
level moisture and clouds moving southeast across the area with
some elevated radar echoes which generally appears to be virga,
although we can`t rule out a few sprinkles. Northeast winds this
morning will become southerly late today and overnight as the
surface ridge moves east of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

A reinforcing cold front moves into the area on Tuesday as a
1030-1035 mb surface high moves south through the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. Right now, the forecast high temperatures in
the south are still pretty warm on Tuesday, but there is
definitely the potential of this front moving south faster to not
allow temperatures to warm as high as forecast, and we will be
watching the trends of the timing of the front.

With the pressure gradient north of the front, gusty northeast
winds are expected during the day, but will diminish in the
evening as this surface high moves into Kansas overnight. The
light winds and clear skies near this surface high will allow good
radiational cooling on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning giving the
potential of frost on Wednesday morning across northern Oklahoma.
We could potentially see the first freeze of the season in
portions of northern Oklahoma, especially in low-lying and
sheltered areas. Will not issue any frost or freeze headlines with
this package, but that is something we will be looking at over the
next shift or two.

Despite the cooler temperatures moving in, some gusty daytime
winds and low humidity will produce elevated fire weather
conditions on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Later in the week, southwest flow aloft develops as the mid-level
ridge moves east and a trough develops in the west. In this
pattern with lee surface cyclogenesis developing in the High
Plains, gusty south winds are expected Thursday and Friday, again
leading to areas of elevated fire weather conditions.

As this longwave trough develops over the west, the initial trough
weakens and moves northwest as a shortwave into the Plains on
Friday bringing at least some potential of rain into the west part
of the forecast area on Friday afternoon and Friday night. Beyond
that, there is still a range of outcomes in the evolution of the
longwave trough in the western U.S. as we get into the weekend.
Both the operational GFS and ECMWF create a cutoff low in the mid
levels over the southwestern United States. Even though
yesterday`s operational 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF both showed
the mid-level through cutting off into a closed low, the cluster
analysis of the ensemble members were actually showing most
members (about 60 percent) keeping the trough open and somewhat
progressive and therefore having some precipitation chances over
the area earlier than what the operational runs were showing, and
this range of outcomes looked to be handled well with the NBM pops
this weekend, even though the operational models would have
suggested a more delayed potential of rain. The 00Z cluster
analysis of ensemble members is just now arriving and now is
trending more toward the cut-off solution with about 60 to 65
percent of ensemble members clustered in the cut-off scenarios.
This will definitely affect the timing of any precipitation
chances, and of course we will continue to watch these trends
over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty
northeast winds will begin to weaken and veer (to the
south/southeast) through the early afternoon on Monday. Passing
areas of mid/high clouds will also be noted throughout the day.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  53  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  52  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  54  91  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  50  71  32 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  47  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  54  86  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09