Nov 01
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Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.
October 30, 2024The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 29, 20242024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.
October 28, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
November 01
When will we know 2024 election results?
A complete guide to poll closing times and vote counting in every state.
November 01
November 01
The election isn’t a popularity contest
The 538 team discusses why the candidate with the higher favorability rating isn’t running away with the election.
November 01
November 01
Are women of color energized to vote?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich debate the meaning of the spike in voter registrations after Kamala Harris announced her presidential campaign.
November 01
November 01
Can the Washington primary predict the general election?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss what Washington state's primary can tell us about who will win in November.
November 01
October 31
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.
October 31
October 30
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.
October 30
October 29
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 29
October 29
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 29
October 29
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 29
October 29
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 29
October 28
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.
October 28
October 28
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.
October 28
October 25
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
October 25
October 24
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 24
October 24
The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24
October 24
Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24
October 24
Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 24
October 23
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
October 23
October 23
How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
October 23
October 22
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22
October 22
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22
October 22
The difference between undecided voters and swing voters
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22
October 22
What percent of voters are truly undecided?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 22
October 21
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
October 21
October 18
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
October 18
October 17
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 17
October 16
Why your vote matters in 2024
In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
October 16
October 16
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
October 16
October 15
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
October 15
October 15
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
October 15
October 15
What the polls say about the 2024 election
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
October 15
October 15
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
October 15
October 14
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 14
October 03
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 03
October 03
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
October 03
October 03
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 03
October 01
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
October 01
October 01
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
October 01
October 01
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
October 01
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