Jul 19
Julian Kim/ABC News
Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?
Trump's numbers could rise soon, but it will be hard to tell why.
July 17, 2024Why it's so hard to measure support for political violence
A clear majority of Americans oppose violence like the Trump shooting.
July 16, 2024By picking J.D. Vance for VP, Trump doubles down on Trumpism
The youngest VP nominee in decades could continue Trump's legacy for years.
July 15, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
July 19
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The latest installment in ABC News' "Your Voice, Your Vote" series.
July 19
July 19
Trump Breaks With RNC Message On Night 4 | 538 Politics Podcast
On the final night of the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination and spoke publicly for the first time since his attempted assassination.
July 19
July 18
Wisconsin Gen Z voters discuss their top election issues of 2024
538's Galen Druke speaks to young voters in Wisconsin about the cost of living, President Joe Biden's age and the Israel-Hamas war.
July 18
July 18
What you might've missed at the RNC
Republicans both targeted swing voters and played to the base.
July 18
July 18
How is the Republican Party talking about the American dream?
Ruth Igielnik, staff editor for news surveys at The New York Times, joins the podcast to discuss how JD Vance reframed the message from his memoir in his RNC speech.
July 18
July 18
How is the Republican Party trying to broaden its appeal?
The GOP is trying to meet people where they are by addressing issues at the RNC like the economy.
July 18
July 18
Why aren’t Republicans talking about Ukraine?
Senior editor and senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the GOP’s foreign policy messaging at the RNC.
July 18
July 17
Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?
Trump's numbers could rise soon, but it will be hard to tell why.
July 17
July 17
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
July 17
July 17
Recapping Night 2 of the RNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The second day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee boasted appearances from some of Trump's former rivals, all calling for Republican Party unity.
July 17
July 16
Why it's so hard to measure support for political violence
A clear majority of Americans oppose violence like the Trump shooting.
July 16
July 15
By picking J.D. Vance for VP, Trump doubles down on Trumpism
The youngest VP nominee in decades could continue Trump's legacy for years.
July 15
July 15
What else do we know about JD Vance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Republican J.D. Vance from Ohio was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022.
July 15
July 15
How will attempted assassination of Trump affect lawmakers’ work?
538 discusses how the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump will affect the work that lawmakers do.
July 15
July 15
How are politicians reacting to political violence? | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich joins the 538 podcast to discuss how lawmakers react to political violence.
July 15
July 15
How Americans view political violence | 538 Politics Podcast
In the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the 538 crew looks at public opinion data on political violence.
July 15
July 15
Greetings from the RNC in Milwaukee
There's much more to the city than this week's political festivities.
July 15
July 15
Welcome to Milwaukee
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 15
July 12
The 2024 Republican Party platform is far from traditional
Conservative lawmakers have learned that things don’t go well if they break with their party.
July 12
July 12
Is Trump trying to soften the Republican Party’s least popular positions?
The GOP released its proposed party platform this week.
July 12
July 12
Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers leave the door open for Biden to withdraw
More Democrats are saying the president shouldn’t run, but he continues on.
July 12
July 12
Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate
Polls show even many Democrats think he's too old for a second term.
July 12
July 11
4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes
Biden's lost some ground, but it's hard to say much more.
July 11
July 10
What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common
They're more moderate, while his backers are progressive and racially diverse.
July 10
July 09
Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate
Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.
July 09
July 09
Can Biden recover from the debate?
Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
July 09
July 09
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
July 09
July 09
Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent
538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
July 09
July 08
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions.
July 08
July 04
Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?
What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.
July 04
July 04
Will President Biden stay in the race?
After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.
July 04
July 04
Democrats express concern over Biden’s future
With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.
July 04
July 04
Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.
July 04
July 04
The Brexit movement's impact on the present day
Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.
July 04
July 04
Making sense of a historic British election
The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.
July 04
July 03
Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.
July 03
July 02
Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?
Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.
July 02
July 02
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 02
July 02
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 02
July 02
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.
July 02
July 01
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Less than the current front-runners might hope.
July 01
June 28
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28
June 28
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28
June 28
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28
June 26
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26
June 25
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25
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