Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week
(Bloomberg) -- American farmers are hoarding corn like it’s 1988. Investor bets that European natural gas prices will keep climbing are signaling that markets expect supplies to tighten in the coming months. And Hurricane Beryl’s rare strength so early in the Atlantic heralds the possibility of a super-charged storm season ahead.
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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Corn
American corn growers are holding the largest stockpiles of the grain on their farms since 1988, thanks to high production costs and low prices. The US farmers, who are the world’s largest corn producers, have been holding off selling early in the season as prices of the key grain slide toward $4 a bushel for the first time since 2020. Russia’s war in Ukraine and South American weather woes in the last few years have given US farmers an edge when competing for a share of the global demand. Corn futures fell as much as 1.8% to $4.165 a bushel on Monday.
Base Metals
Zinc and lead output from top supplier China is under the spotlight as investors weigh further cuts from the nation’s smelters after spot treatment charges — a gauge of processing margins — plunged. So-called TC for zinc concentrate fell to the lowest level in data back to 2016, while those for lead ore dropped to the lowest since 2018 amid a global mine supply shortfall. That’s seen to support prices of the two base metals. Lead futures rose as much as 0.5% on the London Metal Exchange Monday while zinc fell as much as 1.3%.
Natural Gas
Bullish bets that European gas prices will rise have increased, strengthening a conviction in the market that supplies are set to tighten. The net-long position in benchmark Dutch gas futures held by investment funds is at the highest since November 2021, according to the most recent data from Intercontinental Exchange Inc. The bullish wagers indicate that the market remains extremely sensitive to the possibility of supply shortages and coincide with more US gas traders looking to hedge the country’s gas exports and taking views on European demand, linking trading on both sides of the Atlantic. Benchmark futures rose as much as 2.1% on Monday before erasing gains.
Oil
US crude inventories had their steepest weekly decline in almost a year, thanks to a 12.2 million barrel drawdown for the week ended June 28, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The dwindling supplies were driven by the Gulf Coast, where exports rose and imports have eased. Crude futures have rallied nearly 14% from early June’s low and the stockpile news — combined with bullish data on gasoline — are helping propel oil prices early in North America’s summer demand season. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 1.3% Monday.
Storms
Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Texas coast early Monday, bringing heavy rains and life-threatening storm surge after churning across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The storm is notable for its initial strength, with winds at one point last week topping the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale to achieve a rare Category 5 strength. Beryl was the earliest Atlantic storm to do so, and because of where it formed — deep in the tropics — it signals an unusually active hurricane season as ocean temperatures simmer. Beryl is the latest indication of how extreme heat driven by climate change is triggering weather disasters around the world.
--With assistance from Priscila Azevedo Rocha, Winnie Zhu and Jordan Fitzgerald.
(Updates Beryl path and adds Monday commodities prices from third paragraph.)
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