How Barbie can turn pink into gold at the 2024 Oscars

Sure, Barbie is the biggest movie of 2023 (and the biggest in Warner Bros.' 100-year history) — earning $633 million domestically and $1.434 billion globally — but it also received generally positive reviews, and its release was quickly associated with the O-word.

Outside of Oscar nominations in technical categories such as editing, visual effects, and sound, summer blockbusters and "popcorn flicks" usually have a hard time finding a seat at the nominees' table. But Greta Gerwig's Barbie isn't your stereotypical billion-dollar movie, with its exploration of personal identity — not just for Margot Robbie's Barbie but also Ryan Gosling's Ken — objectification, the patriarchy, and empowerment. It's deep in thought, but also enormously entertaining with its music, dance numbers, and stunning visuals.

Pundits and experts around Hollywood currently favor the movie's chances of getting multiple nominations, and on the latest episode of EW's The Awardist podcast, we break down where the movie seems to be a lock and where it may have more of a fight to get a slot in the top five. EW Sr. Writer and our resident Oscars expert Joey Nolfi thinks Best Picture, original song for Billie Eilish and Finneas' "What Was I Made For?", supporting actor for Gosling, and production design are a sure thing.

"I would say just on the cusp between being likely and a lock is director," Nolfi says of Gerwig, who co-wrote the script with Noah Baumbach. "And then secondary, less stable but still likely at this point: best actress, maybe [original] screenplay, makeup and hairstyling, costume design."

Nine nominations — that's nothing to be upset about. But Nolfi is still wary.

"I think there's a real possibility that the movie could be underserved by Oscars voters," he admits. "We saw a lot of conservatives push back against this movie as being a feminist Trojan horse of sorts, and we have to remember — I always try to make this point every year — that, as much as the Academy diversifies, it's still very much made up of people who think a lot like the Ben Shapiros and the Bill Mahers of the world, much like many of our anonymous Oscars balloters that we did in the article earlier this year; that is how a lot of these people think. So I think we have to be expecting that to impact Barbie's overall trajectory. It's not going to be this steamroll thing just yet — I think we're still too early to be predicting that."

You can hear our full conversations about the movie's nomination odds — including why Gerwig should be nominated, why Robbie is currently down, and whether America Ferrera stands a chance in the supporting actress category — and hear from the director and cast in our Around the Table interview conducted this summer, prior to the movie's release and the start of the SAG-AFTRA strike.

Listen to EW's The Awardist podcast on Amazon Music to get the latest awards season analysis and hear from the actors, creators, and more who are contenders this season.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect that Barbie is submitting for original screenplay instead of adapted.

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