George R.R. Martin fears cut character from House of the Dragon could lead to season 3 'butterfly effect'

Last week, A Song of Ice and Fire author George R.R. Martin signaled to the followers of his "Not a Blog" blog that he would soon publish his thoughts about "everything that's gone wrong with House of the Dragon." While that day hasn't yet come, the writer and television executive producer at least shared his thoughts about one particular character omission on the HBO adaptation and what it could mean for seasons 3 and 4.

Martin, who is credited as a co-creator on House of the Dragon with showrunner/writer Ryan Condal, posted and then soon after deleted a blog entry titled "Beware the Butterflies" on Wednesday. He begins by revisiting the Blood and Cheese scene from the season 2 premiere. Martin acknowledged how many fans were disappointed in this particular sequence, but says he agrees with both sides of the discourse.

The two characters, played on the show by Sam C. Wilson and Mark Stobbart, "are crueler in the book," he says, pointing to how House of the Dragon cut the character of Maelor Targaryen, the third child of Queen Helaena (Phia Saban), thereby removing a "Sofie's choice" element that was present in Martin's book Fire and Blood.

"I still love the episode, and the Blood and Cheese sequence overall," Martin writes. "Losing the 'Helaena’s Choice' beat did weaken the scene, but not to any great degree." More importantly, he uses the loss of this character to detail the "butterfly effect" that could happen on the series moving forward.

"Maelor is a 2-year-old toddler in Fire and Blood, but like our butterfly he has an impact on the story all out of proportion to his size," Martin prefaces.

(Warning: Book spoilers lie ahead.)

The author points to specific events from the book. In Fire and Blood, Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen (Emma D'Arcy's role on House of the Dragon) takes King's Landing. Dowager Queen Alicent Hightower (Olivia Cooke's character), fearing for her grandchildren's safety, tasks Ser Willis Fell with escorting Princess Jaehaera to Storm's End and Ser Rickard Thorne with bringing Prince Maelor to the Hightower army marching towards King's Landing. Because of this, both Ser Rickard and Maelor are attacked and killed in a tavern by a mob hoping to win the reward money that Rhaenyra placed for Maelor's safe retrieval.

"I have no idea what Ryan has planned — if indeed he has planned anything — but given Maelor’s absence from episode 2 [in season 2], the simplest way to proceed would be just to drop him entirely, lose the bit where Alicent tries to send the kids to safety, drop Rickard Thorne or send him with Willis Fell so Jaehaera has two guards," Martin comments. "From what I know, that seems to be what Ryan is doing here. It’s simplest, yes, and may make sense in terms of budgets and shooting schedules. But simpler is not better."

The death of Maelor, mixed with the emotions from the Blood and Cheese scene, drives Queen Helaena to kill herself in the book, which then incites the common folk to riot and, as Martin points out, marks "the beginning of the end for Rhaenyra’s rule over the city."

"In Ryan’s outline for season 3, Helaena still kills herself…for no particular reason," Martin writes. "There is no fresh horror, no triggering event to overwhelm the fragile young queen."

Martin later posits, "What will we offer the fans instead, once we’ve killed these butterflies? I have no idea. I do not recall that Ryan and I ever discussed this, back when he first told me they were pushing back on Aegon’s second son. Maelor himself is not essential…but if losing him means we also lose Bitterbridge, Helaena’s suicide, and the riots, well…that’s a considerable loss."

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He then ends his blog entry with another brow-raising remark: "And there are larger and more toxic butterflies to come, if House of the Dragon goes ahead with some of the changes being contemplated for seasons 3 and 4." So perhaps there are more candid Martin comments in the near future.

A spokesperson to HBO released the following statement, which was obtained by Entertainment Weekly: "There are few greater fans of George R.R. Martin and his book Fire & Blood than the creative team on House of the Dragon, both in production and at HBO. Commonly, when adapting a book for the screen, with its own format and limitations, the showrunner ultimately is required to make difficult choices about the characters and stories the audience will follow. We believe that Ryan Condal and his team have done an extraordinary job and the millions of fans the series has amassed over the first two seasons will continue to enjoy it."

Coincidentally, Martin's blog entry, which remains taken down, first published on the same day HBO released the final episode of the official Game of Thrones podcast's current season. It includes an interview with Condal, who talks about the decision to remove Maelor from the season 2 narrative.

"Frankly, this goes back to our first season and trying to adapt a story that takes place over 20 years of history, instead of a story that takes place over 30 years of history," the showrunner said. "We had to make some compromises in rendering that story so that we didn't have to recast the whole cast multiple times and really just, frankly, lose people. I mean, we were walking right up against the line with it in season 1, and I think we did a really great job. I think the response to season 1 sort of extolls that.

"But the casualty in that was that our young children in this show are very young — very, very young — because we compress that timeline," he continued. "So those people could only have children of a certain age and have it be believable where it didn't feel like we weren't hewing to the realities of the passage of time and the growth of children in any real way. People look at that stuff and, particularly with a show like this, they look at it very closely. So it was a choice made. It did have a ripple effect, and we decided that we were going to lean into it and try to make it a strength instead of playing it as a weakness."

This article has been updated with a statement from HBO and quotes by Ryan Condal from the official Game of Thrones podcast.